Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) has prepared a second list of retaliatory tariffs against the United States, amounting to €72 billion (approximately $84 billion), in response to the ongoing trade negotiations and threats from the Trump administration [1][2]. Summary by Sections Trade Negotiations - The EU is facing "huge differences" in trade negotiations with the US, particularly after President Trump threatened to impose a 30% tariff on EU goods [2][3]. - The EU's initial list targeted $95 billion worth of US goods but was reduced after consultations with businesses and member states [2]. Retaliatory Measures - The EU's retaliatory measures include tariffs on industrial products, with over €65 billion of the €72 billion list consisting of industrial goods such as aircraft (€11 billion), machinery (€9.4 billion), and automobiles (€8 billion) [10][11]. - The EU is also considering measures against the US service sector and utilizing the strongest tools available, including anti-coercion measures [11]. Economic Impact - The proposed 30% tariff would significantly impact transatlantic trade relations, making it nearly impossible to maintain the current trade structure [5][10]. - Experts believe that the EU's negotiation stance has shifted from zero tariffs to accepting a 10% general tariff, indicating a significant concession [5][10]. Broader Trade Context - The EU is seeking to strengthen trade relations with like-minded partners and is considering cooperation with CPTPP members as part of its strategy to counter US tariffs [12]. - The World Bank has noted that by December 2024, the CPTPP will include countries that account for about 15% of global GDP, highlighting the EU's interest in engaging with both developed and emerging markets [12].

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) has prepared a second list of retaliatory tariffs against the United States, potentially affecting $84 billion worth of American imports, amid significant trade negotiation tensions between the two parties [1][3]. Summary by Sections EU's Retaliatory Measures - The EU has identified a second list of retaliatory tariffs targeting $84 billion worth of U.S. imports, including Boeing aircraft, automobiles, and bourbon whiskey [1][5]. - The initial list aimed at $95 billion worth of U.S. goods was reduced after consultations with businesses and EU member states [1][5]. - The EU's response is a direct reaction to U.S. President Trump's threat to impose a 30% tariff on EU goods, which has created a significant divide in trade negotiations [3][4]. Negotiation Dynamics - The EU's trade commissioner, Valdis Dombrovskis, indicated that while there is a close agreement on the trade agreement text, substantial differences remain in certain areas [3][4]. - Trump's strategy of increasing tariffs is seen as a way to gain leverage in negotiations, although it has shocked EU officials [3][4]. Impact on Trade Relations - The proposed 30% tariff would drastically alter the transatlantic trade relationship, making it nearly impossible to maintain the current trade dynamics [3][4]. - Experts believe that the EU's acceptance of a 10% tariff as a baseline was already a significant concession, and the 30% threat is unacceptable [4][8]. Composition of the Retaliatory List - The retaliatory list includes over €65 billion worth of industrial goods, with significant items being aircraft (€11 billion), machinery (€9.4 billion), and automobiles (€8 billion) [8]. - Agricultural products affected exceed €6 billion, primarily fruits and vegetables (€2 billion) and alcoholic beverages (€1.2 billion) [8]. Broader Trade Strategy - The EU is considering all possible measures to protect its economy, including potential actions against the U.S. service sector and the use of coercive measures [8][9]. - The EU is also looking to strengthen trade relations with like-minded partners and is interested in enhancing cooperation with CPTPP members [9][10].

巴西总统卢拉14日晚宣布成立一个负责经贸谈判与对策的跨部门委员会，研究如何依据经济对等法案具 体施策，以回应美方关税、保护巴西经济。根据巴西总统府网站发布的公告，这一委员会首要任务是听 取企业意见，评估美方宣布将自8月1日起对巴西商品征收50%关税带来的影响。委员会由巴西副总统兼 发展、工业与贸易部长阿尔克明担任主席，成员包括总统府首席部长鲁伊.科斯塔、外交部长毛罗.维埃 拉和财政部长费尔南多.阿达，并将根据不同会议主题邀请政府其他部长参会。(新华社) ...

Core Viewpoint - Brazil's Vice President and Minister of Development, Industry, and Trade, Alckmin, stated that the U.S. tariffs lack economic justification and are inappropriate, indicating Brazil's intention to respond through the World Trade Organization (WTO) [1] Group 1 - Brazil is expected to announce a reciprocal countermeasure decree regarding U.S. tariffs by July 15 [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential collaboration of the European Union to counter tariffs, indicating a strategic move in international trade relations [1] - It raises questions about the current trends in gold, specifically how to assess bullish and bearish signals in the market [1] - The article mentions a live session hosted by a coach from the TTPS team, suggesting an opportunity for real-time analysis and insights into market positioning [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the EU is preparing to escalate countermeasures against the US tariffs in order to negotiate better agreements [1][5] - Most US trading partners prefer to reach a preliminary agreement with the US by July 9, followed by further negotiations [1][3] - The EU aims to reduce additional tariffs imposed by the US on sectors like steel and aluminum, while acknowledging the difficulty in eliminating the baseline 10% tariff on EU exports [4][5] Group 2 - The US government is likely to extend the negotiation deadlines for countries that are seen as negotiating in good faith, such as the EU [3][4] - The EU is preparing a package of tariffs on US goods worth €95 billion as a countermeasure if negotiations do not yield favorable results [5] - Other countries like India and Japan are also in negotiations with the US, but progress has been limited due to disagreements on key issues such as agricultural products and automotive tariffs [6][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Geopolitical ceasefire [2][4] - Silver: Continue to soar [2][4] - Copper: Declining inventory supports prices [2][10] - Aluminum: Weak operation [2][13] - Alumina: Bottom - range oscillation [2][13] - Aluminum alloy: Deeper into the off - season [2][13] - Zinc: Narrow - range adjustment [2][16] - Lead: Strong in the medium term [2][18] - Tin: Tight current situation, weak future expectations [2][21] - Nickel: Loosening expectations at the distal nickel ore end, smelting end restricts upside potential [2] - Stainless steel: Both supply and demand are marginally weak, steel prices oscillate at low levels [2][26] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: Yesterday, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2508, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2508 decreased by 1.21%, 1.19%, and 1.36% respectively. The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2508, Silver T + D, and Comex Silver 2508 decreased by 0.36%, 0.24%, and 0.52% respectively. In terms of trading volume and positions, there were corresponding changes. ETF positions and inventory also showed different trends [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Powell's congressional hearing on the first day, Trump's call for interest rate cuts, Israel's cease - fire in military operations against Iran, the EU's preparation for tariff counter - measures against the US, and China's six - department financial promotion of consumption policies [5][7][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is - 1, silver trend intensity is - 1 [8]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract increased by 0.45%, and the night - session closing price decreased by 0.22%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.31%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Powell's congressional hearing, the cease - fire between Israel and Iran leading to a rise in US stocks, a new copper smelter in India starting processing, a Japanese company cutting copper production, China's decline in copper ore imports, and Mexico's decision not to issue new mining concessions [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0 [12]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract, LME Aluminum 3M, Shanghai Alumina main contract, and Aluminum Alloy main contract showed different trends. There were also changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads and premiums [13]. - **Comprehensive News**: The approaching deadline for the US tariff suspension, a surge in Asian exports to the US, and expected changes in the US trade deficit [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity is 0, alumina trend intensity is 0, aluminum alloy trend intensity is 0 [15]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 0.64%, and the closing price of the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk increased by 1.40%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads and premiums [16]. - **News**: Powell's congressional hearing [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0 [16]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 0.24%, and the closing price of the LME Lead 3M electronic disk increased by 0.60%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads and premiums [18]. - **News**: Powell's congressional hearing [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 1 [19]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased by 0.73%, and the closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.34%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads and premiums [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Powell's congressional hearing, Trump's call for interest rate cuts, Israel's cease - fire in military operations against Iran, the EU's preparation for tariff counter - measures against the US, and China's six - department financial promotion of consumption policies [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is 0 [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Nickel main contract and the Stainless Steel main contract showed different trends. There were also changes in trading volume, positions, and various price spreads and premiums in the industrial chain [26]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Canada's potential suspension of nickel exports to the US, a nickel project in Indonesia entering trial production, a nickel smelter resuming production, a cold - rolling mill in Indonesia planning maintenance, the removal of the raw ore export ban in the Philippines, and environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park [26][27][29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [29].

Group 1 - The US banking sector is set to experience the most significant capital loosening since 2008, with regulatory agencies reviewing a proposal to lower the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio (eSLR) requirement by 1.5 percentage points from the current 5% [2] - The European Union is preparing to implement additional tariff countermeasures against the US ahead of the July 9 deadline for US-EU trade negotiations, aiming to create a "real threat" to the US [2] - Germany has significantly increased its budget for future fiscal deficits to boost defense spending to 3.5% of GDP, with net new borrowing expected to reach approximately €500 billion over the next five years [2] Group 2 - The US current account deficit surged to a historical peak of $450.2 billion in the first quarter, with the goods trade deficit expanding to a record high of $466 billion [2] - The consumer confidence index in June dropped by 5.4 points to 93, falling below all economists' expectations, indicating potential concerns in consumer sentiment [2] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that recent economic data could have supported further rate cuts, but concerns over tariffs impacting inflation efforts may delay such decisions until at least September [1][2]

Market Performance - Major US indices showed positive performance with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 507.24 points (1.19%) to 43089.02, Nasdaq increased by 281.56 points (1.43%) to 19912.53, and S&P 500 rose by 67.01 points (1.11%) to 6092.18 [2] - European markets also experienced gains, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 75.17 points (1.44%) to 5297.07 and Germany's DAX rising by 372.57 points (1.60%) to 23641.58 [2] - Asian markets showed strong performance as well, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 487.94 points (2.06%) to 24177.07 and the Shanghai Composite Index up by 38.99 points [2] US Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that it is too early to consider interest rate cuts, emphasizing the need to observe economic trends before making policy adjustments [5] - New York Fed President John Williams projected a slowdown in US economic growth for 2023, attributing it to trade tariffs and economic uncertainty, which are expected to increase inflationary pressures [6] - Consumer confidence in the US unexpectedly declined in June, reflecting concerns over job opportunities and the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies [6] International Relations and Defense - The UK announced plans to purchase 12 F-35A nuclear-capable fighter jets from the US, reinforcing its commitment to NATO and responding to previous criticisms regarding defense spending [7] - The European Union is preparing to impose tariffs on $95 billion worth of US goods as a countermeasure in trade negotiations, indicating a potential escalation in trade tensions [8] Corporate Actions - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang initiated a stock sale plan, selling $15 million worth of shares as part of a broader strategy to sell up to $873 million in stock by the end of the year [9] - The UK's Competition and Markets Authority is consulting on Google's market position, which could lead to significant changes in Google's search operations in the UK [10]

Group 1 - The ceasefire in Israel has led to a rise of over 1% in all three major U.S. stock indices, with the Nasdaq 100 index reaching a historic high [1] - Oil prices have dropped significantly over two days, with intraday declines exceeding 6% [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned the possibility of interest rate cuts, indicating that the data from June and July will be crucial [1] Group 2 - Powell's testimony before Congress emphasized a cautious approach, stating that any actions would be conditional and that there are multiple paths forward, including the potential for early rate cuts [1] - Former President Trump has called for a reduction in interest rates by at least two to three percentage points [1] - The U.S. is approaching a deadline for tariff delays, with the EU preparing to implement additional countermeasures against the U.S. [1] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China and six other departments have announced measures to promote consumption, including a 500 billion yuan loan for service consumption and pension, as well as innovative financial products to meet household wealth management needs [1]