1. Report Investment Rating for the Industry No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tariff disturbances and the resulting trade re - balancing were the main themes in the H1 2025 LPG market. In H2 2025, with the concentrated launch of new production capacities in the Middle East and the US, and the weak growth of domestic chemical demand, the supply - demand balance will turn to looseness [2][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 H1 LPG Market Review - **Analysis of Different Stages**: - In Q1 2025, the domestic civil gas market was in a seasonal peak. The lowest deliverable domestic LPG was Shandong civil gas with a spot price around 4,800 - 4,900 yuan/ton. The LPG market fluctuated widely with costs under the pressure of cancellation [9]. - The 04 - contract LPG showed strength. Against the backdrop of weakening global crude oil and FEI prices, the domestic LPG price was strong, and the basis once shrank to around 100 yuan/ton. The contract mainly traded on the squeeze - out of the futures market and the expected tariff counter - measures due to Trump's potential global taxation [9]. - After Trump's global equal - tariff policy and high - tariff measures against China, China imposed a 125% counter - tariff on US imports. The global crude oil and FEI prices tumbled. The domestic LPG market was initially strong but then followed the decline of civil gas prices, while the internal - external price spread rebounded rapidly and fluctuated until early May [9]. - After the Sino - US phased tariff suspension agreement on May 12, the FEI market reversed, and the domestic LPG price fell sharply under the weakening civil gas and large - scale warehouse receipts, with the basis widening [9]. 3.2 2025 H2 LPG Operating Logic 3.2.1 LPG Import Pattern Outlook - **Historical Growth**: In the past 5 years, with the rapid expansion of domestic PDH and other capacities, the chemical demand for LPG increased significantly, and the average annual growth rate of the total imports of propane and butane was 14.10% [11]. - **2025 H1 Import Situation**: From January to March, the cumulative imports of LPG were 8.514 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.44%. However, from April to May, under the impact of Trump's 125% tariff on China, the imports dropped to 5.0209 million tons, a 11.54% decrease from the Q1 average. Even after the tariff suspension in May, the procurement of US propane did not increase significantly due to policy uncertainty and supply - chain substitution [14]. - **Import Source Changes**: The share of US propane in China's imports dropped sharply. In May, it accounted for only 21.17% (310,000 tons). The shortfall was mainly filled by the Middle East (increasing to 55.12% in May 2025 from 23.96% in 2024) and non - traditional sources such as Canada, Australia, and North Africa [15]. 3.2.1.1 Tariff 1.0 - **2018 - 2020 Trade War Impact**: In 2018, after the US imposed a 25% tariff on Chinese goods, China counter - imposed tariffs on US LPG. The US LPG imports dropped by about 290,000 tons/month on average. China supplemented imports through increasing Middle East imports, seeking non - traditional sources, and exchanging goods with Japan and South Korea. However, there was still a shortfall of about 40,000 tons/month [19]. - **2025 Situation**: By 2024, US propane accounted for 59% of China's imports, over 17 million tons annually. If US imports were to stop, it would be difficult to reshape the trade logistics, and the arrival cost of LPG would likely increase. Chinese PDH enterprises might face production cuts or shutdowns [21]. 3.2.1.2 Middle East LPG Supply - **H1 2025 Supply**: Since 2023, the average annual growth rate of Middle East LPG exports has been between 2.5 - 3%. From January to May 2025, it increased by 2.88% year - on - year. The supply from Saudi Arabia and Qatar decreased, while the increments mainly came from Iran and Kuwait [23]. - **H2 2025 New Capacity**: From 2025 - 2026, the new LPG capacity in the Middle East is estimated to be between 14 - 16 million tons, mainly contributed by Qatar and Saudi Arabia. This expansion will add nearly 10% to the global LPG supply, intensify market competition, and may put downward pressure on international prices [27]. - **Change in Export Direction**: Due to the slowdown in Indian demand and the change in the North Asian import pattern, the Middle East's LPG exports will be more focused on China, Southeast Asia, and Europe [27]. 3.2.1.3 US LPG Supply - **Historical Growth**: In the past 5 years, the average annual growth rate of US propane exports was 10.69%. From January to May 2025, the exports increased by 6.51% year - on - year. Affected by the North American cold wave, exports in February decreased by 9.34% year - on - year and recovered to about 7% in March [33]. - **H2 2025 Outlook**: In H2 2025, US LPG production is expected to increase with expanding exports. The Permian Basin's associated LPG supply will remain high, and with the launch of the Enterprise14 fractionation project and terminal expansion, the export capacity is expected to increase from 2.2 million barrels per day in H1 to 2.4 million barrels per day [35]. - **Logistics Pattern Change**: After Trump's "global equal - tariff" policy, the total US propane exports were not significantly affected, but the logistics pattern changed. China's procurement of US propane decreased significantly, while Japan, South Korea, Southeast Asia, India, and Latin America increased their imports [37]. - **Export Capacity Constraints**: US LPG exports are highly concentrated in a few major terminals. Without considering terminal expansions, if the 1 - 5 month's 5% export growth rate is maintained, the average capacity utilization rate of the four major terminals in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to reach 91%. If calculated based on the average 10% growth rate in the past 5 years, it will rise to 98%, indicating a bottleneck in export capacity [42]. 3.2.2 Domestic LPG Supply Outlook - **H1 2025 Supply**: From January to May 2025, the domestic crude oil processing volume decreased by 4.12% year - on - year, dragging the LPG production into negative growth. The total LPG production was 22.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.56% [47]. - **Refinery Operations**: In H1 2025, the overall refinery operations were sluggish. The main refineries had a peak - and - trough pattern during the spring maintenance from March to May, while Shandong independent refineries started the year with a sharp decline and then stagnated at a low level [50]. - **H2 2025 New Capacity**: In H2 2025, new refinery capacities of 27 million tons/year will be gradually released, which is expected to increase the crude oil processing capacity by 2.5 - 3% and theoretically drive the marginal increase of LPG production by 3,500 - 4,500 tons/day [54]. 3.2.3 Domestic LPG Demand Outlook 3.2.3.1 PDH - **Profit and Operation in H1 2025**: In Q1 2025, the average profit of domestic PDH plants was 290 yuan/ton, a 71% year - on - year increase, mainly due to the falling import propane price and relatively stable propylene price. The average operating rate was 71.73%, a 1.59% increase from the previous quarter and an 8.47% increase year - on - year [58]. - **Impact of Tariffs**: After the Sino - US tariff increase in April, the import cost of US propane soared, and the theoretical profit of PDH plants once fell below - 5,500 yuan/ton. Enterprises turned to the Middle East for procurement, making profit recovery difficult. The operating rate dropped from 70% in March to 60% in mid - May and then rebounded to 70% after the tariff suspension in May but fell again later. As of June 12, the theoretical profit was - 357 yuan/ton [59]. - **Capacity Expansion**: In H1 2025, 2.46 million tons/year of new PDH capacities were put into operation, and another 1.45 million tons/year are expected to be launched in H2. The total new capacity in 2025 will reach 3.91 million tons, increasing the propane demand by about 2 million tons. With the concentrated release of propylene capacity in H2 and weak downstream demand, the PDH operating rate may decline [62]. 3.2.3.2 C4 Demand - **MTBE**: In H1 2025, MTBE first rose and then declined. In Q1, it was supported by costs and policies, but in Q2, the market turned sluggish due to increased supply and weak gasoline - blending demand. In H2, the situation may improve slightly during the summer peak season. The expected new production capacity in 2025 is 2.742 million tons/year, with a growth rate of 12% [64][67]. - **Maleic Anhydride**: In H1 2025, maleic anhydride showed a one - way downward trend due to over - capacity. The expected new production capacity in 2025 will exceed 1.5 million tons/year, with a growth rate of over 40% [67].

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) has sent a technical team to Washington for trade negotiations, warning that increased steel tariffs by the Trump administration could jeopardize discussions and lead to retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods [1] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - EU officials are engaging in trade talks with the Trump administration, emphasizing the importance of balanced outcomes in negotiations [1] - The EU Trade Commissioner, Sefcovic, is scheduled to meet with U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer in Paris [1] Group 2: Tariff Concerns - The EU has issued a warning regarding the potential increase of steel tariffs to 50% by the Trump administration, which could threaten the economic relationship between the two regions [1] - The EU is prepared to implement countermeasures if negotiations do not yield satisfactory results [1]

据报道，印度寻求保留对粮食和乳制品等敏感农产品的高额征税。 特朗普政府的90天关税暂停期已经过半，但美国同主要贸易伙伴的谈判进展有限。 其中，美印过招不断：此前美国总统特朗普率先表示"印度已承诺取消所有美国商品关税"，随后被印方 否认；特朗普又加码施压印度，表示已经告诉库克，"不会支持他在高关税国家设厂"。 作为回敬，印度方面表示计划根据世贸组织（WTO）规则对美国的相关保障措施征收报复性关税。 最新报道显示，据两位了解谈判情况的人士称，印度在与美国的谈判中提出削减杏仁等一系列商品的进 口关税，但寻求保留对粮食和乳制品等敏感农产品的高额征税。 如何看待目前扑朔迷离的谈判进展？长期研究商业谈判和贸易谈判的欧洲工商管理学院（INSEAD）院 决策科学管理实践教授法尔考（Horacio Falcao）对记者表示，外界看起来的"漫天要价"也是政治策略 的一部分，而且很多老练的谈判者在谈判桌前一些看起来有些"超纲"的举动是在给谈判对方制造不确定 性，随后即可获得谈判筹码，再收回威胁并宣布成功。 用苹果威胁印度有用吗 来自印度的还击 如前所述，印度近期罕见提议根据WTO规则对美国征收报复性关税，以应对美国作为保障措施推出 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the pig price is expected to remain weak in the short term, with an overall supply surplus anticipated for the year, leading to a bearish outlook on prices [2][15] - The report suggests a shift from "cyclical thinking" to focusing on "quality and price" in investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of operational efficiency among different companies [4][16] - The outbreak of avian influenza in Brazil is expected to impact chicken prices positively in the domestic market, while the industry is seeing a concentration of profit margins towards upstream sources [5][17] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Industry - The latest pig price is reported at 14.58 CNY/kg, with an average weight of 129.71 kg for market pigs. The price for 15 kg piglets is 630 CNY/head, and the price difference for 175 kg market pigs has decreased to 0.36 CNY/kg [3][15] - The number of breeding sows in March was 40.39 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% and a decrease of 0.96% from the end of 2024, indicating a stable production capacity [3][15] - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the pig farming sector, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, due to their strong profit certainty in 2025 [4][16] 2. Poultry Industry - The outbreak of avian influenza in Brazil may lead to trade bans, which could support a rebound in domestic chicken prices. The current price for broiler chickens is 7.4 CNY/kg, with a slight decrease from the previous month [5][17] - The report identifies two main investment lines: high-return quality imported breeding stock and comprehensive industry leaders like San Nong Development [5][17] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Haida Group due to its cash flow turning point and high overseas growth potential. The fish prices have increased, while feed prices have decreased, indicating a recovery in aquaculture profitability [6][19] - The report notes that the capital expansion phase has ended, and leading companies are entering a new phase of stable cash flow [7][19] 4. Pet Industry - In April 2025, the sales figures for pet food showed a decline, with cat and dog food sales at 810 million CNY and 380 million CNY, respectively, reflecting year-on-year decreases of 4.7% and 6.2% [9][20] - The report highlights the strong performance of domestic brands like Mai Fudi and the growth of companies like Zhongchong, which are gaining market share [10][24] 5. Agricultural Products - The report indicates that domestic agricultural products are less affected by tariffs, with a potential upward trend in prices due to reduced imports. The forecast for corn imports has been adjusted down to 7 million tons for the 2024/2025 period [11][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of agricultural stocks as a defensive asset class, suggesting that the sector is currently undervalued [11][26] 6. Market and Price Situation - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 3889 points, up 1.12% from the previous week, while the agriculture index rose slightly by 0.05% to 2621 points [27][29] - The report notes that the pet food sector performed the best among sub-sectors, with a significant increase of 10.93% [27][29]

（原标题：欧盟将飞机和波本威士忌列入拟议中的反制措施） 爱尔兰RTE新闻5月8日报道，欧盟已确认提议对从美国进口的"大范围的工业和农产品"征收关税， 总价值将达950亿欧元。如果欧盟与美国的贸易谈判不能达成"互利的结果"，将实施关税。 欧盟委员会称，此次咨询旨在解决美国对欧盟商品征收10%的普遍关税和对欧盟制造的汽车征收 25%关税的问题，这是"不公平和有害的"。 冯德莱恩表示，关税已经对全球经济产生了负面影响。欧盟仍然致力于与美国通过谈判找到解决方 案。同时，将继续为各种可能性做好准备，今天启动的咨询将帮助我们完成这项必要工作。 爱尔兰总理马丁今天在布鲁塞尔会见了冯德莱恩，马丁一再强调，爱尔兰强烈希望通过谈判达成解 决方案，并表示在贸易战中，最终每个人都会输，最贫穷的人损失最大。 清单中包括飞机，这对已经向美国制造商波音公司订购飞机的瑞安航空是一个潜在的打击。清单上 还包括波本威士忌、葡萄酒、苹果酒、汽车、自行车、船只、智能手机、牲畜、大豆、橄榄和有限的药 品。 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩曾多次表示，如果与美国的贸易关系恶化，将采取一切可能的措施。 今天提出的反制措施包括农产品64亿欧元、飞机105亿欧元、汽车 ...

外交部：中方对美芬太尼反制仍然有效 智通财经5月14日电，今天，外交部发言人林剑表示，中美双方在日内瓦的经贸会谈达成多项积极共 识，同意大幅降低双边关税水平。美方承诺取消91%关税，暂停实施24%的对等关税，相应的中方也取 消91%反制关税，暂停实施24%的反制关税，双方各自保留10%的关税。美方以芬太尼为借口，对中国 无理加征两轮关税，中方均第一时间采取包括关税和非关税措施在内的反制举措，坚定维护自身正当权 益，这些反制措施仍然有效。 ...

印度股指Nifty指数盘前小幅下跌。印度向世界贸易组织（WTO）申诉，提议对在美国制造并运往印度 的一些产品征收关税，以对抗华盛顿对亚洲第三大经济体生产的钢铁和铝产品征收的关税。 ...

证券研究报告 农林牧渔 行业定期报告 李冉 liran02@huayuanstock.com hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 12 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） 雷轶 SAC：S1350524110001 leiyi@huayuanstock.com 冯佳文 SAC：S1350524120003 fengjiawen@huayuanstock.com 顾超 SAC：S1350524110005 guchao@huayuanstock.com 生猪一季度业绩高增，持续推荐低估 ——农林牧渔行业周报（20250506-20250509） 证券分析师 投资要点： 生猪：猪价短期维持震荡，4 月第三方产能震荡略增。 联系人 板块表现： 短期猪价震荡，关注二育入场情况。本周涌益数据最新猪价为 14.79 元/kg，出栏均 重为 129.71kg，15Kg 仔猪报价 647 元/头，175kg 标肥价差降至 0.38 元/kg。近期 猪价表现强于市场预期，但二育群体进场成本也随之上升，压制补栏情绪，短期猪 价或维持震荡；中长期看全年总体供给偏多，猪价弱势较为确定。产能方面，3 月统 计局全国能繁母猪存栏 ...

Group 1 - The European Union (EU) aims to enhance deterrence against the US by increasing retaliatory measures, hoping to compel the US to take EU demands seriously and initiate formal negotiations [1][2] - The EU Commission announced plans to file a lawsuit with the World Trade Organization regarding US tariff policies and is considering potential countermeasures on US imports worth €95 billion [1][2] - The EU's retaliatory measures reflect its basic stance on the tariff issue, indicating a desire for mutual compromise, including potential increases in imports of US agricultural products and energy [1][2] Group 2 - Despite the EU's willingness to negotiate, significant differences remain between the US and EU regarding tariff issues, with the US not prioritizing the resolution of these relations [2] - The EU has officially initiated a consultation process regarding the €95 billion retaliatory measures, which will take one month to complete, focusing on which US products will face retaliatory tariffs [3] - The complexity of internal EU interests may affect the response to US countermeasures, potentially impacting trade cooperation and causing losses for EU member states [3]

2025.05. 09 本文字数：2095，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 冯迪凡 当地时间8月，欧盟委员会（下称"欧委会"）就对美国关税反制措施的产品清单展开公众咨询。 欧委会拿出了一份价值950亿欧元的进口产品清单和一份价值44亿欧元的欧盟对美出口产品清单，其 中包括可能被征收出口关税的废金属(废钢和化学品)。不过欧委会此次没有列出可能的关税水平。 据第一财经记者梳理，该清单涉及美国对欧洲出口的葡萄酒、波本酒和其他烈酒、鱼类、飞机、汽车 和汽车零部件、化学品、电气设备、保健产品和机械等产品。欧盟没有将医药产品或半导体产品列入 清单。 欧委会还表示，将准备就美国开征的所谓"对等关税"和汽车关税向世界贸易组织（WTO）提出磋商 请求，认为这些关税公然违反WTO基本原则。 欧委会主席冯德莱恩表示："关税已经对全球经济产生了负面影响。欧盟将一如既往地致力于通过谈 判与美国取得成果。我们相信，为了大西洋两岸消费者和企业的利益，可以达成很好的协议。同时， 我们将继续为各种可能性做好准备，今天启动的磋商将有助于指导我们开展这项必要的工作。" 目前正在法国调研的对外经济贸易大学法国经济研究中心主任、巴黎索邦大学博 ...