Group 1 - The article discusses the potential collaboration of the European Union to counter tariffs, indicating a strategic move in international trade relations [1] - It raises questions about the current trends in gold, specifically how to assess bullish and bearish signals in the market [1] - The article mentions a live session hosted by a coach from the TTPS team, suggesting an opportunity for real-time analysis and insights into market positioning [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the EU is preparing to escalate countermeasures against the US tariffs in order to negotiate better agreements [1][5] - Most US trading partners prefer to reach a preliminary agreement with the US by July 9, followed by further negotiations [1][3] - The EU aims to reduce additional tariffs imposed by the US on sectors like steel and aluminum, while acknowledging the difficulty in eliminating the baseline 10% tariff on EU exports [4][5] Group 2 - The US government is likely to extend the negotiation deadlines for countries that are seen as negotiating in good faith, such as the EU [3][4] - The EU is preparing a package of tariffs on US goods worth €95 billion as a countermeasure if negotiations do not yield favorable results [5] - Other countries like India and Japan are also in negotiations with the US, but progress has been limited due to disagreements on key issues such as agricultural products and automotive tariffs [6][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Geopolitical ceasefire [2][4] - Silver: Continue to soar [2][4] - Copper: Declining inventory supports prices [2][10] - Aluminum: Weak operation [2][13] - Alumina: Bottom - range oscillation [2][13] - Aluminum alloy: Deeper into the off - season [2][13] - Zinc: Narrow - range adjustment [2][16] - Lead: Strong in the medium term [2][18] - Tin: Tight current situation, weak future expectations [2][21] - Nickel: Loosening expectations at the distal nickel ore end, smelting end restricts upside potential [2] - Stainless steel: Both supply and demand are marginally weak, steel prices oscillate at low levels [2][26] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: Yesterday, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2508, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2508 decreased by 1.21%, 1.19%, and 1.36% respectively. The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2508, Silver T + D, and Comex Silver 2508 decreased by 0.36%, 0.24%, and 0.52% respectively. In terms of trading volume and positions, there were corresponding changes. ETF positions and inventory also showed different trends [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Powell's congressional hearing on the first day, Trump's call for interest rate cuts, Israel's cease - fire in military operations against Iran, the EU's preparation for tariff counter - measures against the US, and China's six - department financial promotion of consumption policies [5][7][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is - 1, silver trend intensity is - 1 [8]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract increased by 0.45%, and the night - session closing price decreased by 0.22%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.31%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Powell's congressional hearing, the cease - fire between Israel and Iran leading to a rise in US stocks, a new copper smelter in India starting processing, a Japanese company cutting copper production, China's decline in copper ore imports, and Mexico's decision not to issue new mining concessions [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0 [12]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract, LME Aluminum 3M, Shanghai Alumina main contract, and Aluminum Alloy main contract showed different trends. There were also changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads and premiums [13]. - **Comprehensive News**: The approaching deadline for the US tariff suspension, a surge in Asian exports to the US, and expected changes in the US trade deficit [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity is 0, alumina trend intensity is 0, aluminum alloy trend intensity is 0 [15]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 0.64%, and the closing price of the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk increased by 1.40%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads and premiums [16]. - **News**: Powell's congressional hearing [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0 [16]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 0.24%, and the closing price of the LME Lead 3M electronic disk increased by 0.60%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads and premiums [18]. - **News**: Powell's congressional hearing [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 1 [19]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased by 0.73%, and the closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.34%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads and premiums [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Powell's congressional hearing, Trump's call for interest rate cuts, Israel's cease - fire in military operations against Iran, the EU's preparation for tariff counter - measures against the US, and China's six - department financial promotion of consumption policies [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is 0 [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Nickel main contract and the Stainless Steel main contract showed different trends. There were also changes in trading volume, positions, and various price spreads and premiums in the industrial chain [26]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Canada's potential suspension of nickel exports to the US, a nickel project in Indonesia entering trial production, a nickel smelter resuming production, a cold - rolling mill in Indonesia planning maintenance, the removal of the raw ore export ban in the Philippines, and environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park [26][27][29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [29].

Group 1 - The US banking sector is set to experience the most significant capital loosening since 2008, with regulatory agencies reviewing a proposal to lower the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio (eSLR) requirement by 1.5 percentage points from the current 5% [2] - The European Union is preparing to implement additional tariff countermeasures against the US ahead of the July 9 deadline for US-EU trade negotiations, aiming to create a "real threat" to the US [2] - Germany has significantly increased its budget for future fiscal deficits to boost defense spending to 3.5% of GDP, with net new borrowing expected to reach approximately €500 billion over the next five years [2] Group 2 - The US current account deficit surged to a historical peak of $450.2 billion in the first quarter, with the goods trade deficit expanding to a record high of $466 billion [2] - The consumer confidence index in June dropped by 5.4 points to 93, falling below all economists' expectations, indicating potential concerns in consumer sentiment [2] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that recent economic data could have supported further rate cuts, but concerns over tariffs impacting inflation efforts may delay such decisions until at least September [1][2]

Market Performance - Major US indices showed positive performance with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 507.24 points (1.19%) to 43089.02, Nasdaq increased by 281.56 points (1.43%) to 19912.53, and S&P 500 rose by 67.01 points (1.11%) to 6092.18 [2] - European markets also experienced gains, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 75.17 points (1.44%) to 5297.07 and Germany's DAX rising by 372.57 points (1.60%) to 23641.58 [2] - Asian markets showed strong performance as well, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 487.94 points (2.06%) to 24177.07 and the Shanghai Composite Index up by 38.99 points [2] US Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that it is too early to consider interest rate cuts, emphasizing the need to observe economic trends before making policy adjustments [5] - New York Fed President John Williams projected a slowdown in US economic growth for 2023, attributing it to trade tariffs and economic uncertainty, which are expected to increase inflationary pressures [6] - Consumer confidence in the US unexpectedly declined in June, reflecting concerns over job opportunities and the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies [6] International Relations and Defense - The UK announced plans to purchase 12 F-35A nuclear-capable fighter jets from the US, reinforcing its commitment to NATO and responding to previous criticisms regarding defense spending [7] - The European Union is preparing to impose tariffs on $95 billion worth of US goods as a countermeasure in trade negotiations, indicating a potential escalation in trade tensions [8] Corporate Actions - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang initiated a stock sale plan, selling $15 million worth of shares as part of a broader strategy to sell up to $873 million in stock by the end of the year [9] - The UK's Competition and Markets Authority is consulting on Google's market position, which could lead to significant changes in Google's search operations in the UK [10]

Group 1 - The ceasefire in Israel has led to a rise of over 1% in all three major U.S. stock indices, with the Nasdaq 100 index reaching a historic high [1] - Oil prices have dropped significantly over two days, with intraday declines exceeding 6% [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned the possibility of interest rate cuts, indicating that the data from June and July will be crucial [1] Group 2 - Powell's testimony before Congress emphasized a cautious approach, stating that any actions would be conditional and that there are multiple paths forward, including the potential for early rate cuts [1] - Former President Trump has called for a reduction in interest rates by at least two to three percentage points [1] - The U.S. is approaching a deadline for tariff delays, with the EU preparing to implement additional countermeasures against the U.S. [1] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China and six other departments have announced measures to promote consumption, including a 500 billion yuan loan for service consumption and pension, as well as innovative financial products to meet household wealth management needs [1]

今日优选 男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 特朗普认为伊以双方都违反了停火协议，但又表示伊以违反协议都不会面临后果 鲍威尔：可以观望等待再考虑利率调整 美参议院共和党计划周五就特朗普的美丽大法案进行投票 英媒：欧盟准备采取更多关税反制措施以对美施压 抗战胜利80周年纪念大会包括检阅部队9月3日上午举行 央行：6月25日开展3000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期 市场盘点 周二，因特朗普宣布伊以停火的消息打击了避险买盘，美元指数亚盘、欧盘持续下跌近0.50%，失守98关口，后因鲍威尔暗示他将抵制7月降息的呼吁而小 幅回升，最终收跌0.40%，报97.96。基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.2960%，2年期美债收益率收报3.8310%。 因伊以停火打击避险情绪，以及鲍威尔称在考虑降息前需要更多时间，现货黄金一度跌破3310美元关口，最终收跌1.67%，收报3322.82美元/盎司；现货白 银最终收跌0.46%，报35.90美元/盎司。 | 比特币 | 105902美元 | 0.49% | | --- | --- ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Union warns that even baseline tariffs imposed by Trump will provoke retaliatory measures from the EU [1] Group 1 - The EU's response to potential tariffs indicates a readiness to engage in trade disputes [1] - The warning reflects ongoing tensions between the EU and the U.S. regarding trade policies [1] - The situation highlights the potential for escalating trade conflicts that could impact global markets [1]

1. Report Investment Rating for the Industry No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tariff disturbances and the resulting trade re - balancing were the main themes in the H1 2025 LPG market. In H2 2025, with the concentrated launch of new production capacities in the Middle East and the US, and the weak growth of domestic chemical demand, the supply - demand balance will turn to looseness [2][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 H1 LPG Market Review - **Analysis of Different Stages**: - In Q1 2025, the domestic civil gas market was in a seasonal peak. The lowest deliverable domestic LPG was Shandong civil gas with a spot price around 4,800 - 4,900 yuan/ton. The LPG market fluctuated widely with costs under the pressure of cancellation [9]. - The 04 - contract LPG showed strength. Against the backdrop of weakening global crude oil and FEI prices, the domestic LPG price was strong, and the basis once shrank to around 100 yuan/ton. The contract mainly traded on the squeeze - out of the futures market and the expected tariff counter - measures due to Trump's potential global taxation [9]. - After Trump's global equal - tariff policy and high - tariff measures against China, China imposed a 125% counter - tariff on US imports. The global crude oil and FEI prices tumbled. The domestic LPG market was initially strong but then followed the decline of civil gas prices, while the internal - external price spread rebounded rapidly and fluctuated until early May [9]. - After the Sino - US phased tariff suspension agreement on May 12, the FEI market reversed, and the domestic LPG price fell sharply under the weakening civil gas and large - scale warehouse receipts, with the basis widening [9]. 3.2 2025 H2 LPG Operating Logic 3.2.1 LPG Import Pattern Outlook - **Historical Growth**: In the past 5 years, with the rapid expansion of domestic PDH and other capacities, the chemical demand for LPG increased significantly, and the average annual growth rate of the total imports of propane and butane was 14.10% [11]. - **2025 H1 Import Situation**: From January to March, the cumulative imports of LPG were 8.514 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.44%. However, from April to May, under the impact of Trump's 125% tariff on China, the imports dropped to 5.0209 million tons, a 11.54% decrease from the Q1 average. Even after the tariff suspension in May, the procurement of US propane did not increase significantly due to policy uncertainty and supply - chain substitution [14]. - **Import Source Changes**: The share of US propane in China's imports dropped sharply. In May, it accounted for only 21.17% (310,000 tons). The shortfall was mainly filled by the Middle East (increasing to 55.12% in May 2025 from 23.96% in 2024) and non - traditional sources such as Canada, Australia, and North Africa [15]. 3.2.1.1 Tariff 1.0 - **2018 - 2020 Trade War Impact**: In 2018, after the US imposed a 25% tariff on Chinese goods, China counter - imposed tariffs on US LPG. The US LPG imports dropped by about 290,000 tons/month on average. China supplemented imports through increasing Middle East imports, seeking non - traditional sources, and exchanging goods with Japan and South Korea. However, there was still a shortfall of about 40,000 tons/month [19]. - **2025 Situation**: By 2024, US propane accounted for 59% of China's imports, over 17 million tons annually. If US imports were to stop, it would be difficult to reshape the trade logistics, and the arrival cost of LPG would likely increase. Chinese PDH enterprises might face production cuts or shutdowns [21]. 3.2.1.2 Middle East LPG Supply - **H1 2025 Supply**: Since 2023, the average annual growth rate of Middle East LPG exports has been between 2.5 - 3%. From January to May 2025, it increased by 2.88% year - on - year. The supply from Saudi Arabia and Qatar decreased, while the increments mainly came from Iran and Kuwait [23]. - **H2 2025 New Capacity**: From 2025 - 2026, the new LPG capacity in the Middle East is estimated to be between 14 - 16 million tons, mainly contributed by Qatar and Saudi Arabia. This expansion will add nearly 10% to the global LPG supply, intensify market competition, and may put downward pressure on international prices [27]. - **Change in Export Direction**: Due to the slowdown in Indian demand and the change in the North Asian import pattern, the Middle East's LPG exports will be more focused on China, Southeast Asia, and Europe [27]. 3.2.1.3 US LPG Supply - **Historical Growth**: In the past 5 years, the average annual growth rate of US propane exports was 10.69%. From January to May 2025, the exports increased by 6.51% year - on - year. Affected by the North American cold wave, exports in February decreased by 9.34% year - on - year and recovered to about 7% in March [33]. - **H2 2025 Outlook**: In H2 2025, US LPG production is expected to increase with expanding exports. The Permian Basin's associated LPG supply will remain high, and with the launch of the Enterprise14 fractionation project and terminal expansion, the export capacity is expected to increase from 2.2 million barrels per day in H1 to 2.4 million barrels per day [35]. - **Logistics Pattern Change**: After Trump's "global equal - tariff" policy, the total US propane exports were not significantly affected, but the logistics pattern changed. China's procurement of US propane decreased significantly, while Japan, South Korea, Southeast Asia, India, and Latin America increased their imports [37]. - **Export Capacity Constraints**: US LPG exports are highly concentrated in a few major terminals. Without considering terminal expansions, if the 1 - 5 month's 5% export growth rate is maintained, the average capacity utilization rate of the four major terminals in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to reach 91%. If calculated based on the average 10% growth rate in the past 5 years, it will rise to 98%, indicating a bottleneck in export capacity [42]. 3.2.2 Domestic LPG Supply Outlook - **H1 2025 Supply**: From January to May 2025, the domestic crude oil processing volume decreased by 4.12% year - on - year, dragging the LPG production into negative growth. The total LPG production was 22.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.56% [47]. - **Refinery Operations**: In H1 2025, the overall refinery operations were sluggish. The main refineries had a peak - and - trough pattern during the spring maintenance from March to May, while Shandong independent refineries started the year with a sharp decline and then stagnated at a low level [50]. - **H2 2025 New Capacity**: In H2 2025, new refinery capacities of 27 million tons/year will be gradually released, which is expected to increase the crude oil processing capacity by 2.5 - 3% and theoretically drive the marginal increase of LPG production by 3,500 - 4,500 tons/day [54]. 3.2.3 Domestic LPG Demand Outlook 3.2.3.1 PDH - **Profit and Operation in H1 2025**: In Q1 2025, the average profit of domestic PDH plants was 290 yuan/ton, a 71% year - on - year increase, mainly due to the falling import propane price and relatively stable propylene price. The average operating rate was 71.73%, a 1.59% increase from the previous quarter and an 8.47% increase year - on - year [58]. - **Impact of Tariffs**: After the Sino - US tariff increase in April, the import cost of US propane soared, and the theoretical profit of PDH plants once fell below - 5,500 yuan/ton. Enterprises turned to the Middle East for procurement, making profit recovery difficult. The operating rate dropped from 70% in March to 60% in mid - May and then rebounded to 70% after the tariff suspension in May but fell again later. As of June 12, the theoretical profit was - 357 yuan/ton [59]. - **Capacity Expansion**: In H1 2025, 2.46 million tons/year of new PDH capacities were put into operation, and another 1.45 million tons/year are expected to be launched in H2. The total new capacity in 2025 will reach 3.91 million tons, increasing the propane demand by about 2 million tons. With the concentrated release of propylene capacity in H2 and weak downstream demand, the PDH operating rate may decline [62]. 3.2.3.2 C4 Demand - **MTBE**: In H1 2025, MTBE first rose and then declined. In Q1, it was supported by costs and policies, but in Q2, the market turned sluggish due to increased supply and weak gasoline - blending demand. In H2, the situation may improve slightly during the summer peak season. The expected new production capacity in 2025 is 2.742 million tons/year, with a growth rate of 12% [64][67]. - **Maleic Anhydride**: In H1 2025, maleic anhydride showed a one - way downward trend due to over - capacity. The expected new production capacity in 2025 will exceed 1.5 million tons/year, with a growth rate of over 40% [67].

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) has sent a technical team to Washington for trade negotiations, warning that increased steel tariffs by the Trump administration could jeopardize discussions and lead to retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods [1] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - EU officials are engaging in trade talks with the Trump administration, emphasizing the importance of balanced outcomes in negotiations [1] - The EU Trade Commissioner, Sefcovic, is scheduled to meet with U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer in Paris [1] Group 2: Tariff Concerns - The EU has issued a warning regarding the potential increase of steel tariffs to 50% by the Trump administration, which could threaten the economic relationship between the two regions [1] - The EU is prepared to implement countermeasures if negotiations do not yield satisfactory results [1]