【文/观察者网 王一】随着英国、欧盟等陆续敲定与美国的贸易协议，但最早开启谈判的印度却仍未看 到协议的影子。据新华社报道，贸易谈判最后期限将至，但美印在汽车、钢铁以及农业等领域存在分 歧。 不过，该官员称，"我们仍然希望达成一项协议，使印度出口商比其他国家的同行更有优势"。 尽管特朗普尚未像对其他十几个贸易伙伴那样，以新关税信函来威胁印度，但他在4月2日将对印度商品 征收的关税定为26%，然后几次暂停关税，留时间谈判。 当地时间7月29日，美国总统特朗普警告称，若迟迟无法就贸易协议达成一致，美国将对印度商品加征 高达25%的关税。 "他们将支付25%。"当被记者问及印度是否会面临20%至25%的关税时，特朗普回答说，"是的，我认为 是的。印度一直是——他们是我的朋友。" 此前一天，美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔对外公开称，美印仍需要进行"更多谈判"来达成贸易协议。他 表示，印度展现出强烈的开放部分市场的意愿，美国也愿意继续磋商，"但我们还需要更多谈判，看看 我们的印度朋友到底想要多么雄心勃勃"。 印度方面似乎已彻底"摆烂"，放弃在8月1日前达成协议。两名印度政府消息人士透露，印度正为美国对 其部分商品临时加征20 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on President Trump's explicit threat to impose tariffs of up to 25% on Indian imports if a trade agreement is not reached, highlighting the growing tensions in US-India trade relations [1][2] - The US trade representative indicated that more discussions are needed to reach a trade agreement with India, acknowledging India's interest in opening parts of its market [1][2] - The US has long been dissatisfied with the trade relationship with India, primarily due to the increasing trade deficit and market access barriers, with the trade deficit reportedly doubling over the past decade [2][4] Group 2 - If the tariff threat materializes, it could significantly impact the substantial bilateral trade between the US and India, with US imports from India valued at $87 billion and exports to India at $42 billion last year [4] - Key sectors that would be affected include pharmaceuticals, smartphones, and apparel, which are major exports from India to the US, potentially leading to increased costs for US importers and consumers [4] - There have been conflicting signals from both sides regarding the progress of negotiations, with Trump claiming that India agreed to zero tariffs, which was quickly refuted by Indian officials, indicating the complexity of the discussions [4]

Group 1 - The core agreement between the US and EU includes a 15% tariff on EU goods entering the US, while steel, aluminum, and copper from the EU will continue to face a 50% tariff [1] - The EU plans to invest an additional $600 billion in the US during Trump's second term, building on over $100 billion in annual investments [1] - By 2028, the EU is expected to purchase $750 billion worth of energy products from the US [1] Group 2 - The US and EU have agreed to implement zero tariffs on strategic products such as aircraft and parts, certain chemicals, generic drugs, semiconductor equipment, natural resources, and critical raw materials [2] - There will be efforts to reduce steel and aluminum tariffs and introduce a quota system to lower bilateral trade barriers [2] - The agreement aims to strengthen economic security alliances to enhance supply chain resilience and innovation, with the EU agreeing to purchase significant amounts of US military equipment [1]

Core Points - The Trump administration has announced a trade agreement with Indonesia, which includes a 19% tariff on all Indonesian imports while U.S. exports to Indonesia will enjoy zero tariffs and non-tariff barriers [1][4] - Indonesia will eliminate tariffs on approximately 99% of U.S. industrial and agricultural products, and will also remove restrictions on key mineral exports to the U.S. [2][3] - The agreement is expected to create at least $50 billion in new market access for U.S. goods [1] Group 1 - Indonesia will cancel all tariffs on over 99% of trade volume with the U.S. and will abandon plans to impose tariffs on data flows affecting U.S. tech companies [2][3] - The U.S. will set a 19% tariff on Indonesian goods, which is lower than the previously threatened 32% [4][5] - The agreement includes commitments from Indonesia to accept U.S. automotive safety standards, which will facilitate the entry of U.S. cars into the Indonesian market [2][3] Group 2 - The trade agreement encompasses various sectors, including digital trade, services, and investment, with Indonesia promising certainty for the transfer of personal data to the U.S. and enhanced intellectual property protection [6] - Indonesia has committed to purchasing $15 billion worth of U.S. energy products, $4.5 billion in agricultural products, and 50 Boeing aircraft [6][8] - The U.S. exported approximately $10.2 billion worth of goods to Indonesia in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, while imports from Indonesia were about $28.1 billion, reflecting a 4.8% increase [5]

Group 1 - Brazilian aircraft manufacturer Embraer stated that increased tariffs on Brazilian imports by the U.S. would raise the cost of each aircraft purchased by U.S. airlines by $9 million [1] - The CEO of Embraer, Francisco Neto, indicated that price changes could lead to order cancellations, delivery delays, production plan modifications, cash flow declines, and reduced investments [1] - Approximately 60% of Embraer's revenue is dependent on the U.S. market, with 45% of commercial aircraft production and 70% of executive jet production being exported to U.S. customers [1] Group 2 - U.S. airlines may face challenges in acquiring new aircraft due to the lack of alternative manufacturers for regional jets [2] - Flexjet reaffirmed its agreement to purchase 182 aircraft from Embraer for up to $7 billion, with potential additional purchases of 30 aircraft [2] - The aviation industry is urgently responding to the impact of U.S. tariff policies, with rising costs affecting the highly integrated supply chain [2] Group 3 - Brazilian Vice President Alckmin held discussions with industry representatives, including Embraer, to seek an extension of at least 90 days for negotiations with the U.S. [3] - The Brazilian government is prioritizing dialogue and negotiation with the U.S. government to address the tariff issue [3]

面对美国关税施压，欧盟一面强调要采取措施维护自身利益，表现出些许强硬；一面又因经济对美依存 度高、内部分歧大以及地缘政治等因素，声称谈判仍是优先选项。面对这些复杂因素，欧盟当前的"摇 摆不定"可以视为基于现实的理性选择。不过欧盟"不战不和不守"的暧昧只会等来美国更加肆无忌惮的 霸凌。 7月中旬，美国在关税问题上再度对欧盟发难。面对美国施压，欧盟一面强调要采取措施维护自身利 益，一面又声称谈判仍是优先选项。欧盟摇摆不定的态度，反映出其决策受到多方因素掣肘，也体现出 试图"以拖待变"的绥靖心态。 当地时间7月12日，美国总统特朗普宣布，将自8月1日起对从欧盟、墨西哥进口的商品分别征收30%的 关税。美方声称，欧盟的关税和非关税贸易壁垒导致美国出现对欧巨额贸易逆差，双方关系"远非互惠 互利"。欧盟及其成员国领导人对此表示强烈不满。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩当天发表声明称，"欧盟将 采取一切必要措施维护自身利益，包括在必要时对等反制"。欧盟委员会负责贸易和经济安全等事务的 委员谢夫乔维奇14日表示，如果美欧贸易谈判失败，欧盟准备对价值720亿欧元（约合840亿美元）的美 国进口商品征收额外反制关税。 此外，欧盟还面临安全 ...

Core Viewpoint - The head of the Brazilian Meat Export Industry Association (ABIEC) stated that a 50% tariff would prevent Brazil from exporting beef to the United States [1] Group 1 - A 50% tariff on Brazilian beef exports to the U.S. is deemed prohibitive by industry leaders [1]

Group 1 - The core of the news is the announcement of a "historic agreement" between the U.S. and Vietnam, where Vietnam's exports to the U.S. will face a new 20% tariff, while goods transshipped from third countries will incur a 40% tariff [1][3] - Vietnam's economy is heavily reliant on the U.S. market, with nearly 30% of its exports directed to the U.S., leading to significant market volatility, including an 8.1% drop in the Vietnamese stock market [3][7] - The agreement includes Vietnam's commitment to purchase $8 billion worth of Boeing aircraft and $2.9 billion in U.S. agricultural products, while also expediting the approval of Trump Organization's golf project [3][9] Group 2 - The U.S. will impose a 40% tariff on goods that are primarily produced in third countries and undergo final processing in Vietnam, which poses a significant threat to the Vietnamese supply chain, particularly in electronics and textiles [3][7] - The interdependence between China and Vietnam is highlighted, as China supplies 26% of Vietnam's total imports and exports, making strict enforcement of transshipment controls potentially crippling for Vietnam's industries [4][7] - The agreement has caused tensions within ASEAN, with countries like Malaysia and the Philippines expressing concerns over Vietnam's unilateral actions, which could undermine regional unity [7][9] Group 3 - Multinational companies are beginning to shift their supply chains in response to the new tariffs, with Nike moving 30% of its shoe orders to Mexico and Apple planning to relocate 65% of its AirPods production out of Vietnam [7][9] - Chinese companies are adapting by forming partnerships, such as CATL signing a battery supply agreement with VinFast, while also exploring new cross-border e-commerce channels [9] - The agreement has led to a surge in stock prices for U.S. brands like Nike, indicating a positive market reaction despite the potential long-term implications for global supply chains [9]

Core Viewpoint - Audi is considering building a new factory in the southern United States with an investment of up to $4.6 billion to respond to the new high tariffs on imported cars imposed by the U.S. government [1] Group 1: Audi's Strategic Response - Audi is evaluating multiple site options for the new factory, with the southern U.S. being the most likely location due to its established automotive industry and favorable policy environment [1] - Currently, Audi does not have a production base in the U.S., but the presence of other Volkswagen Group manufacturing projects in the region could provide supply chain and manufacturing synergies [1] - The decision on the specific plan will be made after discussions with the Volkswagen Group later this year, as Audi aims to expand its market influence in the U.S. [1] Group 2: Impact of U.S. Tariffs on the Automotive Industry - The U.S. has imposed a 25% tariff on imported cars, which has significantly affected car prices and company profits, with General Motors projecting a profit reduction of $4 billion to $5 billion due to these tariffs [2] - The average tariff rate for cars assembled in Canada and Mexico and exported to the U.S. is 15%, contingent on compliance with the USMCA's origin rules [2] - The automotive industry in the U.S. is heavily reliant on imports, with imported vehicles accounting for 48% of the market and domestic vehicles containing an average of 30% imported parts [2][3] Group 3: Adjustments by Other Automakers - Several automakers, including Audi and Jaguar Land Rover, have suspended deliveries to the U.S. in response to the tariffs, while BMW and Mercedes-Benz are taking a wait-and-see approach [3] - Mercedes-Benz plans to add a production line for its popular GLC SUV model at its Alabama plant starting in 2027, while BMW is exploring capacity expansion at its Spartanburg plant [3] - Other automakers, such as Toyota and Mitsubishi, are increasing their vehicle prices in the U.S. to offset the impact of tariffs, with Toyota raising prices by an average of $270 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The U.S. is expected to continue the "import rush" from Southeast Asia until mid-June, accelerate the "import rush" from China in June and weaken it in July, and the mild restocking in the U.S. may end in August. The second quarter may see the peak of China's year-on-year export growth rate for the year, followed by a quarterly decline. Under a neutral assumption, China's annual export year-on-year growth rate may be approximately 1.5%. [2][3] - The outcome of China-U.S. tariff negotiations has influenced the pace of the U.S. "import rush" from China. The progress of tariff negotiations between the U.S. and economies with close trade ties to China has a significant impact on China's exports. [17][42] - The export pressure will intensify in the second half of the year, and domestic stable growth policies may be stepped up in the fourth quarter. [64] - "Import rush" will support the short - term U.S. economy, and the market trading contradiction has shifted from tariffs to U.S. fiscal and credit issues. It is recommended to strategically allocate gold and non - dollar assets. [66] Summary by Directory 1. Overview - In April, high reciprocal tariffs between China and the U.S. led shipping companies to reallocate capacity to other routes, causing a slow recovery of U.S. route capacity. The U.S. "import rush" from China is expected to intensify in June and weaken in July. [7][14] - The "import rush" is first reflected in freight rates, and the shipment lags behind freight rates. Since June 3, the daily shipment volume from China to the U.S. has been above 49 ships. [8][9] - The U.S. "import rush" from Southeast Asia may lead China's "re - export rush" to last until mid - June at most. [10][15] - The U.S. weak restocking may end in August. [11][15] - The future trend of China's exports depends on tariff changes in the global trade environment. The main export destinations in 2024 were ASEAN, the U.S., the EU, etc. [12][16] - The progress of U.S. - Southeast Asia negotiations may impact China's re - export of labor - intensive products, and the inertia of EU economic policy decisions may affect Sino - EU trade. [13][16] 2. Imports Rush of the U.S. - The outcome of China - U.S. tariff negotiations affects the U.S. "import rush" from China. During the tariff tension period (April 9 - May 9), the number of fully - loaded vessels decreased. During the tariff easing period (from May 12), it boosted the "import rush". [17][20] - In April, high reciprocal tariffs led to a slow recovery of U.S. route capacity, and in late May, the actual shipping data continued to decline. [25][26] - The U.S. "import rush" from China is expected to end by mid - June, and after mid - June, the incremental volume of China's "re - export rush" through Southeast Asia will be limited. [31][34] - The U.S. may reach the turning point of inventory growth rate in August. [37][38] 3. Tariff Negotiations - China's current export demand may be from backlogged orders, and the future export trend depends on tariff changes. The suspension of Trump's reciprocal tariffs for some economies will expire on July 8. [42][43] - The U.S. has only signed agreements with China and the UK, and the EU - U.S. negotiation progresses slowly. The U.S. increasing steel and aluminum tariffs will pressure the negotiation. [47] - Sino - European relations seem to improve, but the EU's potential restrictions on China and the inertia of its economic policy may affect trade. [48][49] - Japan, Indonesia, India and the U.S. have relatively good negotiation progress, but India's stance has hardened recently. [52][54] - Attention should be paid to the U.S. - Southeast Asia negotiation progress and its impact on China's entrepot trade. [53][55] 4. Different Scenarios - China's exports from May to July will maintain resilience, but the U.S. has increased non - tariff barriers against China, and the Sino - U.S. trade trend is uncertain. [56][62] - Three scenarios are assumed: in the optimistic scenario, China's 2025 export growth rate may be around 3%; in the neutral scenario, it may be around 1.5%; in the pessimistic scenario, it may be around - 2%. [58][63] - The export pressure will intensify in the second half of the year, and domestic stable growth policies may be stepped up in the fourth quarter. [64][65] 5. Asset Outlook - "Import rush" will support the short - term U.S. economy, and the market trading contradiction has shifted. It is recommended to strategically allocate gold and non - dollar assets. The bond market has value for dip - buying after the funding pressure subsides, and the stock market and commodities are expected to fluctuate in the short term. [66][67]