（原标题：智利政府争取与美国达成铜和木材关税豁免） 智利《三点钟报》7月28日报道，智财政部长马塞尔本周介绍，与美最新谈判初步计划 持续三天，但期限具有弹性，目标是在本轮谈判结束时达成协议。马塞尔表示，美方 提出的议题均在两国自贸协定框架的可协商范围内，重点在于双方互相理解、互利共 赢达成一致。特朗普政府此前已与其他国家达成钢铁等原材料关税豁免协议，智利政 府也期望在木材和铜矿方面获得豁免待遇。马塞尔预计，若8月1日铜关税生效，市场 波动将加剧。 ...

2025 年 07 月 29 日 铜：美元回升，施压价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 79,000 | -0.32% | 79010 | 0.01% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,763 | -0.34% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 75,630 | -12,517 | 176,092 | -4,738 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 13,965 | 1,900 | 270,000 | -789 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 17,832 | 1,699 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 127,400 | -1,075 | 13.56% | -1.11% | | | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc investment rating indicates a downward trend, with a trend strength of -1 [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The zinc market is expected to fluctuate and weaken [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Zinc Market Data - The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 22,645 yuan/ton, down 1.05% from the previous day; the closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic trading was 2,829 dollars/ton, down 0.40% [1] - The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 193,107 lots, an increase of 41,021 lots; the trading volume of LME Zinc was 8,275 lots, a decrease of 2,398 lots [1] - The open interest of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 124,461 lots, a decrease of 4,767 lots; the open interest of LME Zinc was 188,773 lots, a decrease of 1,902 lots [1] - The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was 0 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -1.8 dollars/ton, a decrease of 10.8 dollars/ton [1] - The premium of Guangdong 0 zinc was -95 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the import bill of lading premium was 135 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - The premium of Tianjin 0 zinc was -50 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the spot import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -1,546.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34.31 yuan/ton [1] - The difference between ZN00 and ZN01 was -30 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai Zinc's third - consecutive contract was -1,360.31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46.07 yuan/ton [1] - Shanghai Zinc's futures inventory was 13,767 tons, an increase of 478 tons; LME Zinc's inventory was 115,500 tons, a decrease of 275 tons [1] - The tax - included price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4,385 yuan/ton, unchanged; LME Zinc's cancelled warrants were 54,950 tons, an increase of 150 tons [1] - The price of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 23,825 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton; LME off - warrant (T + 3) was 19,243 tons, a decrease of 2,712 tons [1] - The price of Shanghai Zamak - 3 zinc alloy was 23,275 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 21,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [1] 2. News - Trump shortened the deadline for reaching an agreement with Russia on the Russia - Ukraine conflict to 10 - 12 days, causing crude oil to rise nearly 3% during the session [2] - Chile expects to obtain tariff exemptions from Trump, which caused New York copper to fall more than 6% and copper mining stocks to generally decline [2][3]

标普500指数惊险六连涨续创新高；美元涨超1%创两月最大涨幅，欧元跌超1%；黄金四连跌，纽 约期铜一度跌超6%；国内焦煤夜盘跌超10%。 中美经贸会谈在瑞典斯德哥尔摩开始举行。 中国育儿补贴政策来了，3周岁以下婴幼儿每孩每年3600元。 特朗普等不及了，缩短对俄罗斯达成协议最后通牒期限，原油盘中涨近3%。 美财政部三季度借款预期破万亿，上调82%，债务上限提高后加速发债；5年期美债拍卖意外疲 软，海外需求创三年新低。 智利预计能获特朗普关税豁免，纽铜一度跌超6%，铜矿股普跌。 特斯拉给三星下165亿美元芯片大单，马斯克称将亲自参与提升生产效率。 ...

智利不会报复美国关税。（Emol） 智利财长预计，将获得（美国总统特朗普的）铜关税豁免。 ...

Group 1 - The core discussion between the US and EU revolves around the potential tariff exemptions for wine and spirits, which are still under negotiation despite the overall framework of the trade agreement being established [1] - According to data from the European Union's statistical office, alcoholic beverages are one of the main export products from the EU to the US [1]

Group 1 - Trump's recent Middle East visit resulted in significant military purchase contracts and investment commitments from Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar, totaling thousands of billions of dollars [1] - Qatar gifted Trump a Boeing aircraft, showcasing the high-level diplomatic relations during his visit [1] - Despite these apparent successes, Trump faces a critical situation with only 90 days remaining to address ongoing challenges, particularly in U.S.-China relations [1] Group 2 - Following the initiation of a tariff war in April, Trump granted a 90-day temporary tariff exemption to most trade partners, aiming to negotiate new trade agreements [3] - However, no country, except the UK, reached an agreement with the Trump administration, while China unexpectedly secured a tax reduction agreement with the U.S. [3] - This outcome indicates a failure of Trump's tariff strategy, as he did not achieve the concessions he anticipated from China [3] Group 3 - On May 14, China's Ministry of Commerce announced a 90-day suspension of export control measures against 28 U.S. entities, which previously restricted military-related exports [5] - Additionally, measures against 17 U.S. entities listed as "unreliable" will also be adjusted, allowing for a temporary reprieve from restrictions on trade and investment in China [6] - These actions are seen as a strategic move to ease tensions and facilitate the implementation of agreements reached during U.S.-China trade talks [8] Group 4 - The 90-day exemption period for U.S. companies is critical, as it hinges on Trump's actions and performance in the coming weeks [8] - Trump's recent statements indicate a willingness to engage with China, highlighting the strategic importance of U.S.-China relations on a global scale [8][10] - The urgency for Trump to resolve issues related to the supply of strategic minerals from China is underscored, as these resources are vital for U.S. technology and defense sectors [11] Group 5 - China has implemented strategic mineral export controls and is actively combating smuggling to protect its resource security [13] - The U.S. faces significant challenges in the rare earth sector due to technological limitations, which has become a critical vulnerability [13] - Trump's need for reconciliation with China is driven by the necessity to secure essential resources for U.S. industries [13]

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading below 9390, with a recent report showing a price of 9372 USD/oz, down 0.53% from the opening at 9300 USD/oz, indicating a short-term sideways trend [1] - The highest price reached today was 9447 USD/oz, while the lowest was 9290 USD/oz, suggesting volatility within the trading session [1] Group 2 - The EU is focusing on negotiations with the US despite plans for counter-tariffs, indicating positive progress in trade discussions [3] - A proposed framework similar to the US-Japan trade agreement may involve a 15% baseline tariff on EU goods, significantly lower than the previously threatened 30% tariff [3] - Key industries such as automotive and pharmaceuticals may be affected, with potential tariff exemptions for certain sectors, although high tariffs on steel remain a contentious issue [3] - The EU may consider reducing some tariffs, such as the current 10% on car imports, as part of a "tariff for tariff" strategy [3] Group 3 - The silver market is currently experiencing a bullish trend, with a support level established at 9300 and a potential resistance at 9550 [4] - Short-term trading is expected to remain within a high-level fluctuation range, with key levels to watch being 9300 for support and 9550 for resistance [4] - The market sentiment suggests caution against overly aggressive bullish positions, with a focus on potential breakout points for further movement [4]

Core Views - This week, the US is conducting trade negotiations with multiple countries, and Indonesia has proposed B50 again [1] - There are hot - spot reviews of domestic and foreign protein meal and oil futures markets, including soybean - rapeseed meal and oil, palm - based oil, and comprehensive aspects [1] Soybean - Rapeseed Meal and Oil - As of the week of July 15, about 7% of US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, compared with 9% in the previous week and 5% in the same period last year [2] Palm - Based Oil - Indonesia is researching to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50%, and relevant research is expected to be completed by the end of the year. As of July 16, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption this year has reached 7.42 million kiloliters [3] - Malaysia's August crude palm oil reference price is 3,864.12 ringgit per ton (about $910.28), a significant increase from July's 3,730.48 ringgit/ton, and the export tax will be raised from 8.5% in July to 9% [3] Comprehensive - On July 16, US President Trump announced a trade agreement with Indonesia. Indonesia will increase purchases of US aircraft, energy (worth $15 billion) and agricultural products (worth $4.5 billion), and the US will reduce the tariff rate from the threatened 32% to 19%. The US may maintain the tariff rate set for Japan and may reach a trade agreement with India [4] - Indonesia is still negotiating the details of the trade agreement with the US. It has requested the US to exempt tariffs on cocoa, rubber, crude palm oil and nickel. All imported US goods except alcohol and pork will enjoy zero - tariff, and some US goods will be exempt from import quota regulations [5]

Core Viewpoint - Indonesian officials are requesting the United States to exempt rubber from tariffs, indicating a potential shift in trade dynamics and the importance of rubber in bilateral trade relations [1] Group 1 - The request for tariff exemption highlights Indonesia's reliance on rubber exports and the need for favorable trade conditions to maintain competitiveness in the global market [1] - This move may reflect broader trade negotiations between Indonesia and the United States, aiming to strengthen economic ties and enhance trade volumes [1]