1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US non - farm payroll data has dampened the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and there is a risk of correction in the non - ferrous metals market, especially for copper, zinc, nickel, and stainless steel [1][9][87][205]. - For copper, due to factors such as improved non - farm data, eased overseas squeeze - out risks, and high prices suppressing downstream demand, copper prices face downward pressure [9]. - For zinc, the long - term bearish logic remains unchanged, and it can be considered as a short - position variety in the non - ferrous metals sector [87]. - For nickel and stainless steel, prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Factors include changes in macro - policies, raw material prices, and inventory levels [205][206]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Non - Ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - **Price Data**: Provided the closing prices, daily, weekly, and annual price changes of various non - ferrous metals such as the US dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and multiple metal varieties. For example, the US dollar index was at 97.0, with a daily decline of 0.13%, a weekly decline of 0.28%, and an annual decline of 10.59% [6]. 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Influencing Factors**: - **Macro**: Negative factors include strong US non - farm data, Trump's signing of the "Great Beauty" bill, and tariff threats [9]. - **Raw Material**: Positive factors are a slight increase in copper concentrate spot processing fees and an increase in domestic copper ore port inventories [9]. - **Smelting**: Slightly bearish, with smelters using spot copper ore having continuous losses, and those using long - term contracts seeing reduced profits [9]. - **Demand**: Negative, as the arrival of the off - season and high copper prices have led to a significant decline in domestic copper product operating rates [9]. - **Inventory**: Negative, with global copper visible inventories increasing and the LME spot premium compressing [9]. - **Investment View**: Bearish, with copper prices at risk of correction [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term correction risk for unilateral trading; long copper and short zinc for arbitrage [9]. 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Influencing Factors**: - **Macro**: Neutral, including factors such as Trump signing a budget bill, strong US non - farm data, and China's plan to regulate the photovoltaic industry [87]. - **Raw Material**: Neutral, with domestic processing fees unchanged, import processing fees slightly increased, and short - term supply remaining relatively loose [87]. - **Smelting**: Bearish, as July sees a combination of maintenance, resumption, and new production, with monthly output expected to increase [87]. - **Demand**: Neutral, with the off - season and tariff uncertainties affecting demand [87]. - **Inventory**: Neutral, with social inventories continuously increasing [87]. - **Investment View**: Bearish, suitable as a short - position variety in the non - ferrous metals sector [87]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for unilateral trading; long copper and short zinc for arbitrage [87]. 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI - SS) - **Influencing Factors**: - **Macro**: Neutral, with the US non - farm data affecting interest - rate cut expectations, and Trump's tariff policies and domestic "anti - involution" policies causing market sentiment to fluctuate [205][206]. - **Raw Material**: Neutral, with a slight decrease in the premium of Indonesian domestic trade pyrometallurgical nickel ore, an increase in smelter inventories, and a seasonal increase in Philippine shipments [205]. - **Smelting**: Slightly bearish, with high - level pure nickel production, weakening demand, and supply pressure on ferronickel [205]. - **Demand**: Bearish, with stainless steel in the off - season, weak spot transactions, and uncertain new - energy demand [205]. - **Inventory**: Neutral, with inventory levels remaining stable [205]. - **Investment View**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with attention to factors such as policy changes and cost fluctuations [205]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell on rallies for unilateral trading; wait for arbitrage [205][206].

Group 1 - The core content of the "Big and Beautiful" bill includes a $4.5 trillion tax cut extension from Trump's first term, along with approximately $350 billion in investments for national security and immigration enforcement [2] - The bill will cut $1.2 trillion from social welfare programs, primarily targeting Medicaid and SNAP, by imposing stricter work requirements [2] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the plan will increase the deficit by $3.3 trillion over ten years and result in 11.8 million people losing health insurance [2] Group 2 - The bill was passed in the House with a vote of 218 to 214, with all Democrats and two Republicans voting against it, marking a significant legislative achievement for Trump [1][2] - Trump described the bill as the largest of its kind ever signed and claimed it would lead to unprecedented economic growth [3][4] - The White House stated that the bill would create historic economic growth and reduce deficits and debt, emphasizing its broad scope and significant tax cuts [4]

Core Points - The article discusses the intense political struggle within the Republican Party regarding President Trump's proposed "Great America" economic bill, highlighting the potential loss of support from core MAGA voters if the bill is rejected [1][2] - The bill, which includes tax cuts, spending cuts, immigration control, and energy policy adjustments, is projected to increase U.S. national debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, pushing federal debt beyond $36.2 trillion [1][2] Summary by Sections Legislative Controversy - The bill extends the 2017 tax cuts, reduces Medicaid and food security spending, adds budget for border control, and eliminates several renewable energy subsidies [2] - It also proposes raising the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, necessitating a new agreement in Congress to avoid a sovereign debt default [2] - The Senate passed the bill with a narrow margin, but the House vote remains uncertain, complicating Trump's legislative timeline [2] Political Dynamics - Trump's social media pressure on Republican lawmakers reflects anxiety over moderates within the party, especially regarding Medicaid cuts that have faced backlash [2][3] - Democrats have criticized the bill, claiming it could lead to approximately 10 million low-income individuals losing health insurance and that 83% of tax benefits would go to the wealthiest 1% [2] - The current deadlock reveals deep divisions within the Republican Party, with fiscal conservatives and populists at odds, testing party unity and the future fiscal direction of the U.S. [3]

Core Viewpoint - The statement emphasizes the contrast between significant tax cuts leading to economic prosperity and substantial tax increases resulting in economic failure, urging Republican members to take action to avoid losing voter support [1] Group 1 - The mention of "the largest tax cuts in history" suggests a focus on fiscal policy that promotes economic growth [1] - The reference to "the largest tax increases in history" indicates a warning against policies that could hinder economic performance [1] - The call to action for Republican members highlights the political implications of economic policies on voter sentiment [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights that the House of Representatives is preparing to vote on a tax reform bill, which is expected to be a significant step towards achieving the largest tax cuts in history and promoting substantial economic growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "Big and Beautiful" bill proposed by President Trump is described as potentially the greatest and most important legislation in history, promising significant tax cuts and border security, along with millions of job opportunities and increased military and veteran support [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Tax Cuts - The bill is expected to provide the largest tax cuts in history, which could significantly impact both individuals and businesses [1] Job Creation - The legislation is projected to create millions of job opportunities, indicating a strong focus on employment growth [1] Military and Veteran Support - There is an emphasis on increasing support for the military and veterans, highlighting a commitment to national security and veteran welfare [1] Tax Increase Risk - Failure to pass the bill could result in tax increases of up to 68%, underscoring the high stakes involved in the legislative process [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 16, the central bank had continuous net injections, keeping the funds in the tax - payment period loose. The bond market was mainly in a volatile state, with short - term bonds performing slightly stronger. The main indices of the convertible bond market collectively rose, and most convertible bond individual securities increased. Yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities generally went up, while yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally declined [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - In May, the national economy maintained a stable and progressive development trend. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year - on - year. From January to May, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 3.7% year - on - year [3]. - In May, housing prices in all tiers of cities decreased month - on - month, but the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. From January to May, the sales area and sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 2.9% and 3.8% year - on - year respectively [4]. - The central bank launched two outright reverse repurchase operations in June, achieving a net injection of 200 billion yuan. It will also issue 30 billion yuan of central bank bills in Hong Kong on June 18 [5][6]. - The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors issued a notice to standardize the issuance and underwriting of the inter - bank bond market and held a symposium to support the high - quality development of automobile enterprises [6]. 3.1.2 International News - The Senate version of the Republican bill proposed to raise the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, up from the $4 trillion in the House - passed version. It also made three corporate tax breaks permanent. The Senate is expected to vote on the draft next week [7]. - On June 16, WTI July crude oil futures fell 1.66% to $71.77 per barrel, Brent August crude oil futures fell 1.35% to $73.23 per barrel, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 3.63% to $3.741 per ounce [8]. 3.2 Funds 3.2.1 Open - Market Operations - On June 16, the central bank conducted 242 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 173.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net injection of funds was 68.2 billion yuan [10]. 3.2.2 Funds Rates - On June 16, the central bank's continuous net injections kept the funds in the tax - payment period loose. DR001 decreased by 2.16bp to 1.391%, and DR007 increased by 2.41bp to 1.526%. Other rates also showed different changes [11][12]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Rate Bonds - The bond market was mainly volatile on June 16, with short - term bonds performing slightly stronger. Yields of some active bonds showed different changes, such as the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250011's yield declining by 0.20bp to 1.6400%, and the 10 - year China Development Bank bond active bond 250210's yield rising by 1.15bp to 1.7150% [13][14]. - Information on bond tendering includes details such as the term, issuance scale, winning yield, and multiples of several bonds [15]. 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - On June 16, the trading prices of 2 industrial bonds and 1 urban investment bond deviated by more than 10%. For example, "21 Zhengtou PPN001" fell by more than 49%, and "H9 Longkong 01" rose by more than 48% [15][16]. - There were various credit - bond events, including announcements from companies such as Oceanwide Capital, Ganglong China Real Estate, and Fangyuan Real Estate [19]. 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - On June 16, the three major A - share indices all closed up, and the main indices of the convertible bond market also followed suit. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 69.161 billion yuan, an increase of 6.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Most individual convertible bonds rose [18][19][20]. - There were announcements such as the listing of Hengshuai Convertible Bond on June 17 and Huicheng Convertible Bond's announcement of not redeeming in advance [25]. 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - In the U.S. Treasury bond market on June 16, yields across various maturities generally increased. The yield of the 2 - year U.S. Treasury bond rose 1bp to 3.97%, and the yield of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury bond rose 5bp to 4.46%. The yield spreads also changed [23][24]. - In the European bond market on June 16, yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally declined, such as Germany's 10 - year government bond yield falling 1bp to 2.53% [27]. - Information on the daily price changes of Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds shows the daily changes, credit subjects, and other details of the top 10 gainers and losers [29].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, anticipates that tax cuts will lead to non-inflationary economic growth [1] Group 1 - The expectation of tax cuts contributing to economic growth is highlighted as a significant factor for future economic performance [1] - The focus on non-inflationary growth suggests a strategic approach to fiscal policy aimed at sustaining economic stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, anticipates that tax cuts will lead to non-inflationary growth in the economy [1] Group 1 - The expectation of tax cuts contributing to economic growth is highlighted as a significant factor for future fiscal policy [1] - The focus on non-inflationary growth suggests a strategic approach to stimulate the economy without exacerbating inflationary pressures [1]

美国财长贝森特称，预计减税将带来非通胀性增长。 ...