Core Viewpoint - Cathie Wood emphasizes the potential for accelerated GDP growth in the U.S. and the positive impact of tax reductions on corporate competitiveness and innovation [3][4][5] Economic Outlook - U.S. GDP is expected to exceed growth expectations, with a focus on tax reductions and the removal of trade barriers as positive signals for the economy [3] - The reduction of corporate tax rates from 35% to 21% during Trump's first term led to a significant increase in corporate tax revenue, demonstrating that lower tax rates can enhance competitiveness and drive economic growth [4][5] Innovation and Technology - The cost of AI innovation is rapidly decreasing, with training costs dropping by 75% annually and inference costs by 85%, leading to a surge in innovative companies globally [6] - The U.S. technology sector is expected to thrive under the current regulatory environment, with a notable increase in the market capitalization of tech companies from 2019 to 2024 [6][8] Healthcare Sector - AI is seen as a major beneficiary in the healthcare sector, with advancements in drug discovery and diagnostics expected to significantly reduce costs and improve outcomes [16] - Companies like CRISPR Therapeutics are at the forefront of utilizing AI for groundbreaking treatments, showcasing the potential for AI to revolutionize healthcare [16][17] Investment Strategy - Cathie Wood suggests that investors should look beyond the MAG-6 tech giants and focus on emerging companies in innovative sectors that are currently undervalued [8] - The healthcare industry is highlighted as a particularly promising area for investment, with AI expected to enhance research and development returns [16] Government and Defense - The shift towards modernization in government and defense sectors is crucial, with companies like Palantir leading the way in improving efficiency and adapting to new technological demands [10][11] - The changing nature of warfare, particularly the rise of drone technology, indicates a need for investment in modernized defense systems [11]

Important News - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a tax reform bill proposed by Trump, which will significantly reduce taxes, cut social spending, and increase federal debt; Democrats criticized the bill as a tax cut for the wealthy and a weakening of social security [1] Company News - TSMC and other manufacturers are advising the U.S. Department of Commerce to exempt semiconductor-related tariffs [2] - Sanofi will acquire clinical-stage biotech company Vigil Neuroscience for $470 million in cash, with the total acquisition price potentially rising to $600 million if subsequent development milestones are met [3] - Cigna announced a new agreement with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to set a cap on out-of-pocket costs for weight loss medications [3] - Google has announced the launch of AI search ad testing for desktop users in the U.S. starting today [3] Economic Indicators - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week was 227,000, down from the previous value of 229,000 [4] - The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond rose to 5.15%, marking the highest level since October 2023 [4] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that if tariffs decrease, the Fed is expected to lower interest rates in the second half of 2025 [4] - Nike is expected to implement widespread price increases on products in the U.S. market as early as this week [4] - Walmart is laying off nearly 1,500 employees in its technology department [4] - Zoom reported a 2.9% year-over-year revenue growth to $1.17 billion for the first fiscal quarter, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.35, exceeding market expectations [4]

当地时间5月18日，美国众议院预算委员会投票通过特朗普的大规模税收与支出议案。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stated that Japan's fiscal situation is worse than that of Greece and opposes using Japanese government bonds to fund tax cuts [1] Group 1 - Japan's fiscal condition is highlighted as being more precarious than Greece's, indicating significant economic challenges [1] - The Prime Minister's stance reflects a cautious approach towards fiscal policy, particularly regarding the use of government debt [1]

日本首相石破茂：不要以为日本可以减税并使用发债获得的资金。 ...

ooo[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 05 月 16 日 证券研究报告•宏观定期报告 宏观周报（5.12-5.16） 关税博弈阶段性缓和，美国通胀仍在下行 摘要 [Table_Summary] 一周大事记 国内：加快构建科技金融体制，持续推进城市更新。5 月 13 日，中国－拉美 和加勒比国家共同体论坛第四届部长级会议在北京举行，同日，中国和巴西发 布关于强化携手构建中巴命运共同体的联合声明，未来我国自巴西进口有望持 续增加，中国企业向巴西出海投资的步伐也有望加快；14 日，科技部联合中 国人民银行等七部门发布《加快构建科技金融体制 力支撑高水平科技自立自 强的若干政策举措》，提出 15 项具体措施，推动金融资源精准投向科技创新 领域；同日，国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁主持召开民营企业座谈会，围绕经济 形势、稳就业稳经济政策落实等议题，系统回应民营企业关切，释放了强化政 策执行、法治保障和战略引导的积极信号；15 日，中办、国办印发《关于持 续推进城市更新行动的意见》，系统部署八大任务与六大支撑保障措施，城市 更新改造后续或将获得更多财政和融资等方面的支持。 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声 ...

Core Points - The "Beautiful Bill" proposed by President Trump combines tax cuts, immigration reform, and various domestic priorities into a single legislative measure [1] - The House Republican leadership aims to finalize the bill by July 4, aligning with Treasury Secretary's request to include debt ceiling increases in the proposal [2] Tax Provisions - The bill includes a 5% remittance tax aimed at funding border security and introduces new refundable credits for verified U.S. remitters [3] - It proposes significant changes to clean energy tax credits, including the termination of various tax incentives for solar energy and hydrogen production [3][4] - The bill extends provisions from the 2017 Trump tax law, increasing estate and gift tax exemption limits and modifying the SALT deduction cap to $30,000 for individuals [3][4] Healthcare and AI Regulation - The bill is projected to reduce federal healthcare spending by $715 billion over ten years, potentially resulting in 13.7 million Americans losing healthcare coverage [6] - It proposes a 10-year suspension of most state-level regulations on artificial intelligence, which may create conflicts under Senate rules [6] SALT Deduction Controversy - The proposed $30,000 cap on SALT deductions has faced opposition from Republican lawmakers from blue states, raising concerns about political risks in their districts [7] Agricultural Provisions - The bill includes reforms to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), shifting costs to states and incorporating key bipartisan agricultural provisions [10]

特朗普在4月9日宣布"重大买入机会"后，美国股市迎来反弹，标普500指数累计涨幅接近17%，按21天 滚动基准计算，这是标普500指数在特朗普两届任期内取得的最大涨幅。 回顾过去几个月的股市变化，特朗普的言论对市场的影响非常大。在4月初，据央视新闻，美国实施 10%普遍关税以及对汽车、钢铁和铝材等特定行业的关税措施，导致标普500指数自2月份峰值，一度跌 近19%。 随后，在特朗普4月9日表示"现在是买入的好时机"后（几个小时后，他暂停了部分关税），美股在当月 反弹逾16%。 但特朗普的"喊买"并没有止步于此。特朗普在5月8日再次强调，如果贸易协议与减税相结合能够取得成 果，"你最好现在就出去买股票。"讲话后，美股实现两连阳，标普当日收涨0.58%。 不过目前，市场对美股走势看法不一。BNY Mellon宏观策略师Geoffrey Yu认为，我们怀疑市场会忘记4 月发生的事，但最坏情况的可能性现在已经成为遥远的记忆，人们将据此进行资产配置。 而摩根士丹利策略师Wilson警告称美国股市尚未安全无虞。有"华尔街最准分析师"之称的美银分析师 Hartnett预计，市场将在贸易协议公布后"买预期、卖事实"。Sing ...

美国总统特朗普宣称：不会对加班征税。 美国社会的中层和工薪阶层将迎来最大规模的减税。 是时候让普通民众（Main Street，相对于华尔街而言）获胜了。 ...

外媒：特朗普试图挤压制药商的收入来为减税措施买单 金十数据5月3日讯，据外媒报道，美国总统特朗普已将目光投向制药行业，希望制药行业承担部分减税 成本，敦促国会共和党人迫使制药商接受医疗补助计划（Medicaid）覆盖的处方药降价。白宫在一封电 子邮件中证实，特朗普要求众议院共和党人强制要求政府为低收入和残疾美国人提供的医疗计划获得某 些外国收取的最低药品价格。总统是在就如何削减数千亿美元的政府开支为减税提供资金进行谈判时提 出这一要求的。在共和党人寻求抵消减税的部分成本时，该策略可能会缓解一个最具争议的问题：是否 迫使数百万低收入美国人退出医疗补助计划（Medicaid）的医疗保险。 ...