2025年12月04日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：市场多空博弈，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：市场多空博弈，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 2025 年 12 月 4 日 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期货 | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) 799.5 | 涨跌(元/吨) -1.0 | 涨跌幅 -0.12% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 12601 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 334. 841 | ...

新订单指数为49.2%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，表明制造业市场需求景气水平有所改善。 原材料库存指数为47.3%，与上月持平，低于临界点，表明制造业主要原材料库存量继续减少。 从业人员指数为48.4%，比上月上升0.1个百分点，表明制造业企业用工景气度小幅回升。 供应商配送时间指数为50.1%，比上月上升0.1个百分点，表明制造业原材料供应商交货时间略有加快。 从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，供应商配送时间指数高于临界点，生产指数位于 临界点，新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数均低于临界点。 生产指数为50.0%，比上月上升0.3个百分点，位于临界点，表明制造业生产总体稳定。 中国制造业采购经理指数运行情况 11月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.2%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，景气水平有所改善；同比下 跌1.1%。从企业规模看，大型企业PMI为49.3%，比上月下降0.6个百分点，低于临界点；中、小型企业 PMI分别为48.9%和49.1%，比上月上升0.2个和2.0个百分点，均低于临界点。 ...

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series by Guotai Junan Futures on December 3, 2025, covering iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs [1][2] Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Core Views - Iron ore has limited downstream demand space and high valuation [2][4] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil markets feature long - short battles and wide - range oscillations [2][7][8] - Ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, and coking coal are all in wide - range oscillations [2][12][16] - Logs are in low - level oscillations [2][18] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 800.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan/ton (-0.06%); the previous day's position was 358,611 lots, down 18,063 lots. Spot prices of various types of ore remained unchanged. Some basis and spreads changed slightly [4] - **News**: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [4] - **Trend Strength**: -1, indicating a bearish view [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2601, the previous day's closing price was 3,133 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (0.35%); for hot - rolled coil HC2601, it was 3,325 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.30%). Spot prices in some regions changed slightly, and some basis and spreads also changed [8] - **News**: In the week of November 27, rebar production decreased by 1.88 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 3 tons; rebar inventory decreased by 21.86 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.21 tons; rebar apparent demand decreased by 2.85 tons, hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 1.31 tons. In mid - November, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities decreased by 22 tons month - on - month. In October 2025, national steel production data showed various changes, and import and export data also fluctuated [9][10] - **Trend Strength**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different contracts decreased to varying degrees. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese and related raw materials had some changes, and basis, spreads between near and far months, and cross - variety spreads also changed [12] - **News**: On December 2, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions changed. In October 2025, South Africa's manganese ore export volume increased year - on - year and month - on - month, with different trends in exports to different countries. Hengyang Steel Pipe finalized the ferrosilicon purchase price [13][14] - **Trend Strength**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing prices of JM2601 and J2601 increased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke had some changes, and basis and spreads changed [16] - **News**: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [17] - **Trend Strength**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [17] Logs - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices, trading volumes, positions, and spreads of different contracts had various changes. Spot prices of different types of logs and wood squares in different regions had different trends [19] - **News**: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [21] - **Trend Strength**: 0, indicating a neutral view [21]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article is that despite a slight increase in Russia's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November 2025, the manufacturing sector continues to face challenges, including a rapid decline in production and reduced new orders [1] Group 1: Manufacturing PMI and Production - The manufacturing PMI for Russia in November 2025 is reported at 48.3, a slight increase from 48 in October [1] - Despite the increase in PMI, the speed of production decline remains significant, attributed to a decrease in new orders and supply chain delays [1] Group 2: New Orders and Employment - The decline in new orders has slowed down, marking the smallest decrease in the past six months, indicating some stabilization in demand [1] - Employment in the industry has increased in November, allowing companies to reduce the backlog of unfinished orders, which has now decreased for the tenth consecutive month [1]

Report Summary Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore: Downstream demand has limited space, and the valuation is high [2][4]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: The commodity sentiment is hot, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][8][9]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Due to sector sentiment resonance, they are oscillating with a strong bias [2][13]. - Coke and coking coal: They are in a wide - range oscillation [2][17][18]. - Logs: They are oscillating at a low level [2][20]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the I2601 futures contract was 801.0 yuan/ton, up 7.0 yuan or 0.88%. The positions decreased by 14,304 hands. Spot prices of imported and domestic ores were mostly stable, with some domestic ores rising. The basis and spreads showed certain changes [5]. - **News**: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of RB2601 and HC2601 futures contracts increased, with trading volumes and positions decreasing. Spot prices in various regions rose. The basis and spreads also changed [9]. - **News**: In the week of November 27, rebar production decreased by 1.88 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 3 tons; total inventory of rebar decreased by 21.86 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 1.21 tons; apparent demand of rebar decreased by 2.85 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 1.31 tons. In mid - November, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities decreased by 2.5% month - on - month. In October 2025, national steel production data showed some declines [10][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different contracts increased. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia rose. There were changes in price differences such as basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads [13]. - **News**: On December 1, there were price ranges for different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions. An alloy plant in Inner Mongolia increased production capacity. In November, the production of silicomanganese in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia decreased, and the national total production decreased. Tianjin Port's manganese ore handling volume increased in November. Xinyu Iron and Steel set the ferrosilicon purchase price [14][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 increased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke in some regions decreased. There were changes in basis and spreads [18]. - **News**: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both [19]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different contracts increased slightly. Trading volumes mostly decreased, while positions showed different trends. Spot prices in different regions were mostly stable, with some showing small changes in price differences [21]. - **News**: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the log industry is "Low-level oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The log market is currently in a state of low-level oscillation, with various price indicators and trading volumes showing different trends [1][2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: The 2601 contract's closing price increased by 0.2% daily and 0.3% weekly, while its trading volume decreased by 38.5% daily and 28% weekly, and its open interest decreased by 1.6% daily and 1% weekly. The 2603 contract's closing price rose by 0.3% daily and remained unchanged weekly, with trading volume down 46% daily and 35% weekly, and open interest up 3.8% daily and 3% weekly. The 2605 contract's closing price also increased by 0.3% daily and was flat weekly, trading volume decreased by 7.4% daily and 32% weekly, and open interest rose by 3.4% daily and 7% weekly [2] - **Spot-Futures Spreads**: The spreads between spot and 2601, 2603 contracts increased by 10% and 9.4% daily, and 14% and 7% weekly respectively [2] - **Inter-Contract Spreads**: The spreads between 2601 - 2603, 2601 - 2605, 2603 - 2605 contracts showed certain changes [2] - **Spot Market**: Most log and wood product prices in the spot market remained stable, with only a few showing slight changes. For example, the price of 3.9 - meter 20 + radiata pine in the Jiangsu market decreased by 1.4%, and the price of P30 (knot - free wood) in the Shandong market decreased by 4.9% [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - In November, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing industry's business climate [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]

国家统计局数据显示，11月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.2%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，景气 水平有所改善。 从企业规模看，大型企业PMI为49.3%，比上月下降0.6个百分点，低于临界点；中、小型企业PMI分别 为48.9%和49.1%，比上月上升0.2个和2.0个百分点，均低于临界点。 从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，供应商配送时间指数高于临界点，生产指数位于 临界点，新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数均低于临界点。 新订单指数为49.2%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，表明制造业市场需求景气水平有所改善。 生产指数为50.0%，比上月上升0.3个百分点，位于临界点，表明制造业生产总体稳定。 原材料库存指数为47.3%，与上月持平，低于临界点，表明制造业主要原材料库存量继续减少。 从业人员指数为48.4%，比上月上升0.1个百分点，表明制造业企业用工景气度小幅回升。 供应商配送时间指数为50.1%，比上月上升0.1个百分点，表明制造业原材料供应商交货时间略有加快。 转自：央视网 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November is reported at 49.2%, showing a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] - Both the production index and new orders index have rebounded compared to last month, with the production index reaching the critical point, suggesting improvements in both production and demand [1] - High-tech manufacturing PMI has remained above the critical point for 10 consecutive months, indicating continued growth in related industries [1] Group 2: Small and Medium Enterprises - The PMI for small and medium-sized enterprises has shown varying degrees of recovery, with the small enterprise PMI reaching a six-month high, reflecting a notable improvement in their business conditions [1] Group 3: Market Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index has increased from the previous month, indicating enhanced confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding recent market developments [3] - Industries such as non-ferrous metal smelting and processing, as well as railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace equipment, have business activity expectation indices above 57%, reflecting optimism in these sectors [3] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index for November is reported at 49.5%, with a slowdown in overall business activity due to seasonal declines in consumer-related services [5] - Financial activities have shown robust performance, and new momentum industries are operating steadily, with stable optimistic expectations among enterprises [4][9] - The non-manufacturing business activity expectation index is at 56.2%, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month and remaining above 56% for two consecutive months [8] Group 5: Economic Outlook - The data indicates that enterprises maintain stable optimistic expectations for future non-manufacturing development, supported by ongoing policy measures and a year-end push in supply and demand, which is expected to release investment and consumption-related demand [9]

长江商报奔腾新闻记者 李璟 稳增长政策不断落地见效，制造业产需两端均有改善。 国家统计局11月30日发布数据显示，11月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.2%，比上月上升 0.2个百分点，制造业稳中有升；非制造业商务活动指数为49.5%，比上月下降0.6个百分点，非制造业 经营活动有所放缓；综合PMI产出指数为49.7%，比上月下降0.3个百分点，我国经济景气水平总体平 稳。 中国物流与采购联合会分析认为，11月份制造业PMI指数小幅回升，表明市场信心有所改善。12月 制造业市场需求仍有趋稳回升空间，并带动企业生产活动稳中有增，年末节庆和冬季消费相关需求集中 释放会带动消费相关服务业有所回升，投资有望继续发挥托底经济的作用。此外，"十五五"发展目标鼓 舞人心，对市场信心产生积极影响。要围绕"十五五"良好开局进一步加强宏观经济政策逆周期调节力 度，显著加大政府公共产品、公共服务投资规模，进一步有效有力带动企业订单增加。 其中，生产指数和新订单指数分别为50.0%和49.2%，比上月分别上升0.3个和0.4个百分点，其中生 产指数升至临界点，产需两端均有改善。 11月份，非制造业商务活动指数为49.5%。其 ...

新华社北京11月30日电 （记者 王雨萧）国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会11月 30日发布数据显示，11月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.2%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，景气水 平有所改善。 数据显示，11月份，生产指数和新订单指数分别为50.0%和49.2%，比上月上升0.3个和0.4个百分 点，其中生产指数升至临界点，制造业产需两端均有改善。11月份，大型企业PMI为49.3%，比上月下 降0.6个百分点，景气水平回落；中型企业PMI为48.9%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，景气度有所改善；小 型企业PMI为49.1%，比上月上升2.0个百分点，为近6个月高点，景气水平显著回升。 此外，高技术制造业PMI为50.1%，连续10个月位于临界点以上，相关行业继续保持增长。 数据还显示，11月份，生产经营活动预期指数为53.1%，比上月上升0.3个百分点，制造业企业对近 期市场发展信心有所增强。 ...