价格指数双双回升。受近期部分大宗商品价格上涨等因素影响，主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指 数分别为56.1%和50.6%，比上月上升3.0个和1.7个百分点，其中出厂价格指数近20个月来首次升至临界 点以上，制造业市场价格总体水平改善。有色金属冶炼及压延加工、电气机械器材等行业主要原材料购 进价格指数和出厂价格指数均升至55.0%以上，相关行业原材料采购和产品销售价格总体水平上涨。 大型企业PMI继续高于临界点。大型企业PMI为50.3%，仍位于扩张区间，大型企业支撑作用持续显 现；中、小型企业PMI分别为48.7%和47.4%，比上月下降1.1个和1.2个百分点，景气水平有所回落。 光明日报北京1月31日电（记者董蓓）国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会31日发布的 数据显示，1月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为 49.3%、49.4%和49.8%。生产指数为50.6%，高于临界点，制造业生产保持扩张。 《光明日报》（2026年02月01日 02版） 国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧解读数据时说，从行业看，农副食品加工、铁路船舶航空 航天设 ...

2026年1月31日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布数据显示，1月份制造业采购 经理指数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。 展望未来，付一夫认为，制造业PMI走势无须过度担忧：短期看，春节后企业集中复工复产，叠加逆周 期调节政策有望加码，2月PMI大概率稳中有升；中期看，政策对制造业的支持力度持续，高技术与装 备制造业的扩张韧性将带动整体复苏，全年PMI预计稳定在荣枯线上方，呈现短期修复、中期稳升态 势。 苏商银行特约研究员付一夫在接受《中国经营报》记者采访时分析称："1月制造业PMI有所回落，主要 源于季节性扰动与需求不足叠加的短期现象。春节临近导致企业提前停工、生产节奏放缓，叠加建筑业 淡季间接拖累需求，构成季节性主导因素；而内外需偏弱则是核心基本面制约。" 东方金诚统计数据显示，剔除2023年极端值后，过去十年中，1月制造业PMI指数呈现"八降二升"，平 均下行0.3个百分点。国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧解读称，1月份部分制造业行业进入 传统淡季，加之市场有效需求仍显不足，制造业景气水平较上月有所下降。 中国企业资本联盟副理事长柏文 ...

Domestic News - In January, China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The production index for January was 50.6%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing, while the new orders index fell to 49.2%, suggesting a decline in market demand [2] - Industries such as agricultural product processing and aerospace equipment showed production and new orders indices above 56.0%, indicating rapid release of supply and demand [2] - Conversely, industries like petroleum, coal, and automotive had indices below the critical point, reflecting a slowdown in market demand and production [2] - On January 30, soybean meal and corn options were officially listed for trading on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, providing more flexible hedging options for enterprises in the agricultural sector [2] International News - The U.S. Department of State approved a military sales package to Saudi Arabia, including 730 Patriot missiles and related equipment, with a total value of $9 billion [4] - Russian President Putin announced a significant increase in military exports by 2026, focusing on cooperation with the Collective Security Treaty Organization and CIS countries, with last year's military product exports generating over $15 billion [4] - According to Russian data, fish and seafood exports are expected to remain stable at approximately 2.1 million tons in 2025, with export value increasing by 14% to around $6 billion [4] - Cuba's President Díaz-Canel emphasized the country's readiness to respond to a new round of U.S. oil sanctions, condemning the actions and asserting Cuba's determination to cope with the situation [4]

文/张智 从企业规模来看，大型企业PMI继续高于临界点。大型企业PMI为50.3%，仍位于扩张区间，大型企业 支撑作用持续显现；中、小型企业PMI分别为48.7%和47.4%，比上月下降1.1个和1.2个百分点，景气水 平有所回落。 一个亮点是，高技术制造业持续领跑。高技术制造业PMI为52.0%，连续两个月位于52.0%及以上较高水 平，相关行业发展态势持续向好。装备制造业PMI为50.1%，保持在扩张区间。消费品行业和高耗能行 业PMI分别为48.3%和47.9%，景气水平有所回落。 企业预期保持乐观。生产经营活动预期指数为52.6%，继续高于临界点。从行业看，农副食品加工、食 品及酒饮料精制茶等行业生产经营活动预期指数连续两个月位于56.0%以上较高景气区间，相关企业对 近期行业发展信心较强。 编辑：徐芸茜 1月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，但传统淡季下企业生产仍继 续扩张。 具体来看，生产指数为50.6%，高于临界点，制造业生产保持扩张；新订单指数为49.2%，市场需求有 所回落。从行业看，农副食品加工、铁路船舶航空航天设备等行业生产指数和新订单指数均高于 5 ...

分企业类型看，大型企业PMI为50.3%，仍位于扩张区间，大型企业支撑作用持续显现；中、小型企业 PMI分别为48.7%和47.4%，比上月下降1.1个和1.2个百分点。 中新社北京1月31日电 (记者 王恩博)中国国家统计局1月31日公布，由于部分制造业行业进入传统淡 季，加之市场有效需求仍显不足，1月份中国制造业采购经理指数(PMI)回落至49.3%，但企业预期仍保 持乐观。 1月份，生产经营活动预期指数为52.6%，继续高于临界点。从行业看，农副食品加工、食品及酒饮料 精制茶等行业生产经营活动预期指数连续两个月位于56.0%以上较高景气区间，相关企业对近期行业发 展信心较强。(完) 具体而言，1月份，生产指数为50.6%，制造业生产保持扩张；新订单指数为49.2%，市场需求有所回 落。从行业看，农副食品加工、铁路船舶航空航天设备等行业生产指数和新订单指数均高于56.0%，产 需释放较快；石油煤炭及其他燃料加工、汽车等行业两个指数均低于临界点，相关行业市场需求放缓， 企业生产有所回落。 受近期部分大宗商品价格上涨等因素影响，1月份，主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别为 56.1%和50.6%，比上月 ...

数据显示，1月份，生产指数为50.6%，高于临界点，制造业生产保持扩张；新订单指数为49.2%，市场 需求有所回落。从行业看，农副食品加工、铁路船舶航空航天设备等行业生产指数和新订单指数均高于 56.0%，产需释放较快；石油煤炭及其他燃料加工、汽车等行业两个指数均低于临界点，相关行业市场 需求放缓，企业生产有所回落。 霍丽慧分析，受近期部分大宗商品价格上涨等因素影响，主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别 为56.1%和50.6%，比上月上升3.0个和1.7个百分点，其中出厂价格指数近20个月来首次升至临界点以 上，制造业市场价格总体水平改善。 数据显示，1月份，大型企业PMI为50.3%，仍位于扩张区间，大型企业支撑作用持续显现；中、小型企 业PMI分别为48.7%和47.4%，比上月下降1.1个和1.2个百分点，景气水平有所回落。 此外，高技术制造业持续领跑。1月份，高技术制造业PMI为52.0%，连续两个月位于52.0%及以上较高 水平，相关行业发展态势持续向好。装备制造业PMI为50.1%，保持在扩张区间。消费品行业和高耗能 行业PMI分别为48.3%和47.9%，景气水平有所回落。 "生产经营活动 ...

央视网消息：据国家统计局网站消息，1月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.8 个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。 ...

1月份，非制造业商务活动指数为49.4%，比上月下降0.8个百分点。1月份，综合PMI产出指数为 49.8%，比上月下降0.9个百分点，表明我国企业生产经营活动总体较上月有所放缓。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "volatile" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, most of the main contracts of bond futures rose, and the bond futures may fluctuate in the short - term. Traders should continue to monitor the changes in the stock index. For trading - type investors, band operations are recommended [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the main contracts of bond futures opened higher and fluctuated horizontally throughout the day. As of the close, the 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2603 rose 0.28%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.06%, the 5 - year TF2603 rose 0.04%, and the 2 - year TS2603 remained flat. The Wind All - A Index opened slightly higher, dipped in the morning and then rebounded, and fluctuated downward in the afternoon, closing down 1.18% from the previous trading day with a trading volume of 3.70 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the previous day's 3.64 trillion yuan [1][2] Important Information - Open - market operations: On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 358.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 16.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net injection of 342.4 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Tuesday, short - term interest rates in the inter - bank money market rose. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.39%, up from 1.33% the previous day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.55%, up from 1.49% the previous day [1] - Cash bond market: On Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank government bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield of the 2 - year government bond fell 0.06 BP to 1.44%, the 5 - year rose 0.01 BP to 1.64%, the 10 - year fell 0.66 BP to 1.85%, and the 30 - year rose 0.06 BP to 2.29% [1] - US data: The US consumer price index in December increased 2.7% year - on - year, in line with expectations and the previous value. The core consumer price index increased 2.6% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.7%; and increased 0.2% month - on - month, lower than the expected 0.3% [1] Market Logic - In December, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, returning to the expansion range after eight consecutive months below the boom - bust line. The production index was 51.7%, and the new order index was 50.8%. The service business activity index was 49.7%, still below the boom - bust line. The CPI and core CPI both rose 0.2% month - on - month, and the PPI rose 0.2% month - on - month, indicating that China's overall inflation level remained moderate. The 2026 People's Bank of China work conference emphasized the continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy [1] Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are recommended to conduct band operations [2]

研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周一国债期货主力合约开盘涨跌参半，早盘小幅冲高，午后略有回落，临近尾盘再 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 度拉升，截至收盘 | 30 | 年期国债期货主力合约 | TL2603 | 上涨 | 0.30%，10 | 年期 | T2603 | 上 | 涨 | 0.06%，5 | 年期 | TF2603 | 上涨 | 0.05%，2 | 年期 | TS2603 | 持平。 | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1、公开市场：周一央行开展了 ...