1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall performance of industrial products is strong, and the prices of most non - ferrous metals show different trends. The price of copper may continue to rise in the short term but the growth rate is expected to slow down; the price of aluminum is expected to be strong in the short term; the price of lead is generally strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead is limited; the price of zinc is boosted by the market structure; the price of tin is expected to fluctuate within a certain range; the price of nickel may show a downward trend; the price of lithium carbonate may fluctuate and adjust; the price of alumina is recommended to short at high prices; the price of stainless steel is expected to be weak; the price of cast aluminum alloy may be volatile [1][3][4][5][6][7][9][11][12][14] 3. Summary by Metal Type Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed up 0.67% to $10,010/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 80,090 yuan/ton. The expected operating range of SHFE copper is 80,000 - 81,500 yuan/ton, and LME copper 3M is 9,850 - 10,100 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 2,000 to 93,250 tons. SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.03 to 25,000 tons [1] - **Market Situation**: The supply of copper raw materials remains tight, and the inventory is structurally low. However, the consumption toughness of electrolytic copper is decreasing, and China's exports are increasing [1] Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed up 0.48% to $2,614/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,715 yuan/ton. The expected operating range of SHFE aluminum is 20,600 - 20,850 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M is 2,580 - 2,640 dollars/ton [3] - **Inventory**: SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions increased by 13,000 to 693,000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts decreased slightly to 28,000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.05 to 329,000 tons [3] - **Market Situation**: The domestic "anti - involution competition" expectation warms up the commodity sentiment, and the aluminum inventory is at a low level, supporting the price [3] Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index closed up 0.41% to 17,178 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose by 1 to $2,042/ton [4] - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory was 46,400 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 52,300 tons [4] - **Market Situation**: The supply of primary lead remains high, and the supply of recycled lead is in short supply. The price of lead - acid batteries stops falling and rebounds, but the weak domestic consumption restricts the increase of SHFE lead [4] Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index closed down 0.10% to 22,194 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell by 26.5 to $2,713/ton [5] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 6,600 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 80,600 tons [5] - **Market Situation**: The supply of zinc ore remains high, and the TC continues to rise. The LME market zinc Cash - 3S structure rises rapidly, which boosts the zinc price [5] Tin - **Price**: It is expected that the domestic tin price will fluctuate in the range of 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and the LME tin price will fluctuate in the range of 31,000 - 34,000 dollars/ton [6] - **Inventory**: As of June 27, 2025, the national main market tin ingot social inventory was 9,266 tons, an increase of 361 tons from last Friday [6] - **Market Situation**: The short - term supply of tin ore is in short supply, and the upstream enterprises are reluctant to sell, but the terminal demand is weak, and the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are in a stalemate [6] Nickel - **Price**: It is recommended to short at high prices. The short - term operating range of SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M is 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [7] - **Inventory**: No significant inventory data provided - **Market Situation**: The supply - demand surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, and the cost support weakens, which may lead to a downward trend [7] Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC evening quotation was 61,577 yuan, up 0.65%. The reference operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2509 contract is 62,900 - 65,300 yuan/ton [9] - **Inventory**: The salt factory may face inventory accumulation pressure before the peak season [9] - **Market Situation**: The low - level varieties are tough, and the lithium carbonate price may fluctuate and adjust [9] Alumina - **Price**: The alumina index rose 4.23% to 3,058 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short at high prices, and the reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2,850 - 3,300 yuan/ton [11] - **Inventory**: The Wednesday futures warehouse receipts were 21,300 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous day [11] - **Market Situation**: The policy of Guinea may lead to the increase of bauxite price, and the overall commodity market is bullish [11] Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,670 yuan/ton, up 0.88%. The spot market is expected to remain weak [12] - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased to 1,154,400 tons, a decrease of 0.25% [12] - **Market Situation**: The stainless steel market is in the traditional off - season, with weak demand and a pattern of oversupply [12] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The AD2511 contract closed up 0.3% to 19,885 yuan/ton. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term [14] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased by about 200 to 21,000 tons [14] - **Market Situation**: The supply and demand are weak, and the price is mainly affected by the aluminum price [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by various factors including geopolitical risks, trade policies, economic data, and supply - demand dynamics across different industries. Traders are advised to make decisions based on specific market conditions and risk tolerance in each sector [4][8][10] - The expectation of supply - side reform has a significant impact on the market, with different industries showing different responses. Some industries may experience price increases due to supply reduction expectations, while others may face challenges due to demand weakness [25][35] Summary by Category Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw mixed performance in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.09%, the ChiNext Index down 0.13%, and the Shanghai 50 up 0.18%. Total trading volume in the two markets was 1377 billion yuan, a decrease of 89 billion yuan from the previous day. It is recommended to buy long positions in IF index futures on dips and consider IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" [2][4][5] - **Treasury Futures**: The government is implementing a more proactive fiscal policy, with some ultra - long special treasury bonds to be issued in advance in the third quarter. Yields are expected to move downward in the long run, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [7][8] - **Precious Metals**: Weak US ADP employment data strengthens the market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy. It is expected that the Fed will turn dovish in July and cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. Attention should be paid to the long - position opportunities in silver [9][10] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: With a marginal easing of US policy expectations and a reduction in trade concerns, copper prices may continue to rise in the short term but at a slower pace due to reduced consumption resilience and increased exports from China. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 80,000 - 81,500 yuan/ton [13] - **Aluminum**: Positive domestic commodity sentiment and low inventory levels support the price of aluminum. It is expected to maintain a volatile and upward trend in the short term, with the domestic main contract operating in the range of 20,600 - 20,850 yuan/ton [14] - **Zinc**: Zinc ore supply remains high, and there is a high expectation of zinc ingot production. The LME market's structure also supports the price, but the overall impact on price trends needs further observation [15] - **Lead**: The supply of primary lead is high, while the supply of recycled lead is tight. The price of lead batteries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the lead price is expected to be relatively strong, but the increase in Shanghai lead may be limited [16] - **Nickel**: The supply - demand surplus of refined nickel persists, and the cost support is weakening. It is advisable to short on rallies, with the short - term reference range for the Shanghai nickel main contract being 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [17] - **Tin**: The short - term supply of tin ore is in short supply, but the terminal demand is weak. The domestic tin price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton [18] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Salt factories have a high willingness to produce and hedge, and there may be a pressure to accumulate inventory before the peak season. It is recommended to pay attention to the market atmosphere and positions, with the reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2509 contract being 62,900 - 65,300 yuan/ton [19] - **Alumina**: The price of alumina futures has risen significantly. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the domestic main contract AO2509 operating in the range of 2850 - 3300 yuan/ton [20] - **Stainless Steel**: Excess capacity clearance expectations have led to a rebound in commodity valuations, but the stainless - steel market is still weak due to the off - season and price adjustments by steel mills [21] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In the context of a weak off - season, the price of cast aluminum alloy is mainly affected by the cost (aluminum price). It is expected to be volatile in the short term [22] Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Rumors of strict production restrictions in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region have led to a significant increase in steel prices. The inventory of steel products is currently low, and future price trends depend on policies, demand, and cost support [24][25] - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, waiting for further changes in supply - demand and macro - policies [26][27] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The price of glass has rebounded due to policy expectations, and soda ash is expected to follow the rebound. However, the medium - term supply of soda ash is still abundant [28] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The market is optimistic due to the expectation of supply - side reform. It is recommended to wait and see, and enterprises with hedging profit opportunities can consider appropriate hedging [29][30][31] - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon has risen significantly. It is recommended to wait and see, and enterprises with hedging profit opportunities can consider appropriate hedging [32][33] Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: The price of rubber is expected to fluctuate and rebound. It is recommended to take a neutral - to - bullish approach and focus on short - term operations [39] - **Crude Oil**: With the resurgence of geopolitical risks, the oil price has started to rebound. It is recommended to control risks and wait and see [40] - **Methanol**: The current situation of low inventory and strong spot prices in the methanol market. It is recommended to wait and see due to limited short - term contradictions [41] - **Urea**: The supply of urea is decreasing, and demand may improve slightly. It is advisable to pay attention to short - term long - position opportunities on dips [42] - **Styrene**: The price of styrene is expected to fluctuate and decline in the short term due to factors such as cost, supply, and demand [43] - **PVC**: The PVC market is facing strong supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to be under pressure in the future [44][45] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply and demand of ethylene glycol are expected to change, and attention should be paid to short - position opportunities on rallies, while being cautious about the risk of ethane imports [46] - **PTA**: PTA is expected to continue to have a small inventory reduction in July, and attention can be paid to long - position opportunities following PX on dips [47] - **Para - Xylene**: PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory in the third quarter, and attention can be paid to long - position opportunities following crude oil on dips [48][49] - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The price of PE is expected to maintain a volatile trend due to factors such as inventory and demand [50] - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The price of PP is expected to be bearish in June due to factors such as supply and demand [51] Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: The price of pigs may stabilize or continue to rise in some areas. For near - term contracts, short - term long - positions on dips are recommended, while for later - stage contracts, short - positions on rallies are advisable [53] - **Eggs**: The egg price is expected to remain stable in many areas. In the short term, it is recommended to reduce short - positions on dips or wait and see, while in the medium term, short - positions on rallies are recommended [54] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of soybean meal is in a multi - factor situation. It is recommended to try long - positions on dips at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the high end [55][56] - **Oils and Fats**: The US biodiesel policy supports the price of oils and fats, but the upside is limited. It is recommended to view it with a volatile perspective [57][58] - **Sugar**: The price of sugar may continue to decline due to factors such as weak demand and high import profits [59] - **Cotton**: The short - term cotton price may continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the results of Sino - US negotiations [60][61]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese photovoltaic (PV) industry is facing a critical supply-side reform, with expectations of production cuts and stricter policies to curb below-cost sales, aiming to improve industry profitability and stability [3][4][5]. Industry Summary - A significant decline was observed in the A-share market on June 19, with a total trading volume of 1.28 trillion yuan and over 4,600 stocks falling [1]. - The photovoltaic sector, particularly low-fee ETFs, experienced a downturn, with the leading ETF (516290) dropping by 1.49% [1][6]. - Major companies in the PV sector, such as 阳光电源 (Sungrow Power), 德业股份 (Deye), and 晶澳科技 (JA Solar), reported declines exceeding 3% in their stock prices [6]. Production and Policy Changes - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association held a meeting focusing on "production limits to maintain prices," indicating a projected reduction in operating rates by 10%-15% in Q3 [2][3]. - A third-party audit group will conduct comprehensive audits to identify evidence of below-cost sales, with various measures planned against non-compliant companies [2][3]. Technological Advancements - The industry is witnessing a push for supply-side reform, with leading companies advocating for market-driven consolidation and technological upgrades to phase out outdated capacities [4][5]. - New technologies, such as TOPCon and perovskite, are gaining attention, with several companies showcasing advancements in efficiency and production capabilities at the SNEC conference [5]. Market Outlook - The PV sector is expected to experience a fundamental recovery, with signs of a potential turning point in market sentiment as production cuts and technological advancements take effect [7]. - The low-fee photovoltaic ETF (516290) is highlighted as a favorable investment option, with management fees significantly lower than the market average [7].

Core Viewpoint - The revised "Regulations on Ensuring Payment to Small and Medium-sized Enterprises" will take effect on June 1, 2025, prohibiting large enterprises from imposing unreasonable payment terms on SMEs and delaying payments for goods, projects, and services [2] Group 1: Industry Response - Major automotive companies, including China FAW, Dongfeng Motor, SAIC, Changan, BAIC, GAC, and BYD, have committed to standardizing supplier payment terms to within 60 days as a response to the new regulations [2][3][4] - The automotive industry is uniting under the consensus of "value chain win-win," with companies optimizing internal procurement and financial settlement processes to ensure timely payments [3][4] - The commitment to a 60-day payment term is seen as a significant step towards alleviating cash flow pressures on small suppliers and promoting healthy collaboration within the industry [4][10] Group 2: Regulatory Context - The government has emphasized the need to address issues such as delayed payments and high operational costs for enterprises, with a focus on improving the payment cycle for SMEs [7][8] - The average accounts payable turnover days in the Chinese automotive industry is reported to be as high as 182 days, significantly exceeding the international standard of 90 days [7] - The revised regulations aim to strengthen the payment responsibilities of large enterprises and enhance supervision and management of payment processes [8][12] Group 3: Industry Challenges and Expectations - The automotive supply chain is under pressure, with some companies previously extending payment terms to suppliers, which has led to increased financial strain on upstream suppliers [8][11] - There are concerns that while the new regulations and commitments are positive, some companies may still find ways to circumvent these obligations, necessitating strict oversight [11][12] - The automotive industry is hopeful that the implementation of the 60-day payment term will foster a more sustainable and collaborative environment, reducing internal competition and price wars [9][10][12]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple Chinese automotive companies have collectively committed to shortening payment terms to suppliers to within 60 days, marking a significant shift in the industry's approach to supplier relationships and financial practices [4][5][38]. Group 1: Industry Response - On June 10-11, 2025, several automotive companies, including China FAW, Dongfeng Motor, GAC Group, and others, announced a unified commitment to reduce payment terms to suppliers to 60 days or less [4][5]. - This collective action is notable in an industry characterized by fierce competition and individualistic strategies, contrasting sharply with previous practices where companies pressured suppliers for price reductions [4][5]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology praised this initiative as a positive response to national calls for corporate responsibility and a step towards a collaborative ecosystem between manufacturers and suppliers [4][5]. Group 2: Legislative Context - The commitment aligns with the revised "Regulations on the Payment of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises," effective June 1, 2025, which mandates payment within 30 days for government purchases from SMEs, with a maximum of 60 days if otherwise agreed [8][10]. - This regulation indirectly addresses long-standing issues in the automotive sector, where extended payment periods have placed significant financial strain on suppliers [10][11]. Group 3: Current Payment Practices - Historically, payment cycles in the automotive industry have been excessively long, with companies like BYD and Geely averaging 127 days, and others like Changan reaching up to 205 days [11][12]. - In contrast, international companies like Tesla and Toyota maintain much shorter payment cycles, with Tesla averaging around 60.36 days and Toyota around 54.84 days [13][14]. Group 4: Supplier Challenges - Suppliers often face a power imbalance in negotiations, leading to extended payment terms and various payment methods that do not provide immediate cash flow [23][24]. - The reliance on commercial acceptance bills instead of cash payments exacerbates the financial burden on suppliers, as these bills can incur additional costs when discounted [19][20]. - The automotive supply chain has been under pressure, with suppliers required to finance their operations while waiting for payments, often leading to significant cash flow challenges [26][30]. Group 5: Future Implications - The new 60-day payment term could provide relief to suppliers who have historically endured long payment delays, but there are concerns about whether companies will adhere to this commitment [39][40]. - There is a risk that companies may shift more responsibilities onto suppliers to ensure their own financial stability, potentially increasing the burden on smaller suppliers [42][45]. - The industry is moving towards a more sustainable and cooperative relationship between manufacturers and suppliers, although challenges remain in balancing the needs of both parties [45].

Core Viewpoint - Multiple automotive companies in China have committed to limiting supplier payment terms to no more than 60 days, responding to government efforts to address "involution" in the industry [1][12][13]. Group 1: Company Commitments - On the evening of October 10, companies including FAW, Dongfeng, GAC, and Seres announced their commitment to a 60-day payment term for suppliers to enhance cash flow efficiency and stabilize the supply chain [1]. - Shortly after, Geely announced a similar commitment to unify supplier payment terms to 60 days, emphasizing its role as a leading enterprise in promoting high-quality development in the automotive industry [1]. - Changan Automobile followed suit, stating that its subsidiaries would also adhere to the 60-day payment term, highlighting the importance of corporate social responsibility [3]. - BYD announced its commitment to the same payment term, aiming to drive high-quality development in the Chinese automotive industry through innovation and management optimization [6][7]. - Chery Group also joined the initiative, reinforcing the collective movement among automotive manufacturers [8]. Group 2: Regulatory Context - The commitments from these automotive companies align with the upcoming "Regulations on Payment of Funds to Small and Medium Enterprises," which will take effect on June 1, 2025, mandating a 60-day payment term and prohibiting non-cash payment methods [13]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has emphasized the need for comprehensive measures to address "involution" in the automotive sector, indicating a strong regulatory push to improve the business environment [15][16]. - The recent statements from various government departments reflect a concerted effort to combat unfair competition and promote healthy industry development, particularly in the context of the ongoing economic transition in China [16].