阿伯丁实物白银ETF涨3.8%，iShares白银信托ETF涨3.7%。 白银价格于周一触及83.62美元的历史最高位，随后出现2020年8月以来最大单日跌幅。 周二，白银矿商股价随白银价格上涨而走高。 MarketPulse分析师Zain Vawda表示："昨日的抛售带有新年前获利了结和仓位调整的特征……由于此次 上涨的结构性条件——美元走弱及持续的地缘政治不确定性——仍未改变，买家可能正在回流。" 赫克拉矿业涨1.5%，科尔矿业涨0.6%。 MarketPulse分析师Zain Vawda表示："昨日的抛售带有新年前获利了结和仓位调整的特征……由于此次 上涨的结构性条件——美元走弱及持续的地缘政治不确定性——仍未改变，买家可能正在回流。" 赫克拉矿业涨1.5%，科尔矿业涨0.6%。 阿伯丁实物白银ETF涨3.8%，iShares白银信托ETF涨3.7%。 责任编辑：陈钰嘉 责任编辑：陈钰嘉 白银价格于周一触及83.62美元的历史最高位，随后出现2020年8月以来最大单日跌幅。 周二，白银矿商股价随白银价格上涨而走高。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a rebound in gold and other precious metal prices following a significant sell-off, with market focus shifting back to ongoing global risks [1] - Analysts from OANDA's MarketPulse indicate that the previous day's sell-off was characterized by profit-taking and repositioning ahead of the new year, suggesting a potential return of bullish sentiment [1] - Structural conditions driving the recent price increase, such as a weaker US dollar and persistent geopolitical uncertainty, remain intact [1] Group 2 - Traders are currently anticipating two interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the coming year, as the December meeting minutes are set to be released [1] - In geopolitical developments, Russia has accused Ukraine of attempting to attack President Putin's residence, vowing retaliation, which undermines the prospects for a peace agreement [1]

技术面： 基本面： 周二（12月30日）亚盘时段，现货黄金于隔夜大幅下跌后略有反弹，目前暂交投于4363美元附近。现货黄金周一（12月29日）从前一交易日的纪录高位 4549.69美元/盎司大幅回落，收盘暴跌4.4%，收报4331.78美元/盎司。整个贵金属板块都出现了大幅调整。现货白银急跌8.9%，铂金重挫14.5%至2104.07美 元/盎司，钯金则暴跌15.23%，主要原因是投资者在近期疯狂上涨后的获利了结。这场突发回调让许多投资者措手不及，但也引发了对黄金未来走势的深度 思考。 尽管此次回调幅度不小，但回顾2025年全年，黄金的表现堪称耀眼。今年以来，金价已累计上涨约65%以上，创下自1979年以来最强劲的年度涨幅。这一轮 大牛市得益于多重因素叠加：全球经济不确定性、地缘政治紧张、中央银行持续购金、交易所交易基金（ETF）资金流入，以及美联储降息预期等，都推动 黄金作为传统避险资产的需求不断攀升。黄金历来在经济和地缘政治不确定时期表现出色。2025年，持续的通胀压力、美元走弱，以及全球贸易摩擦等，都 让投资者将资金转向黄金寻求保值。中央银行的强劲买盘更是提供了坚实支撑，许多国家为了对冲风险而大量增持黄 ...

12月29日，受俄乌冲突缓和及年末资金获利了结影响，金价盘初大幅跳水，一度跌破4500美元关 口，随后探底回升，日内波动超90美元，截至A股收盘，COMEX黄金期货交投于4510美元/盎司附近， 黄金ETF华夏(518850)跌0.87%，黄金股ETF(159562)跌2.27%，有色金属ETF基金(516650)跌1.96%。 消息面上，作为全球重要的衍生品交易所，芝商所于12月26日发布重大保证金调整通知称，将于12 月29日收盘后，全面上调黄金、白银、锂等金属期货品种的履约保证金。相关分析指出，当前金属市场 价格波动复杂，以白银为例，在算力等新经济带来的光伏能源行业巨大需求下，产业避险资金与交易性 资金疯狂涌入相关市场和品种，这种需求结构的变化使传统的风险研判模型需要重新审视。交易所提高 保证金的目的是收紧市场流动性，促使投资者理性交易。 近期贵金属价格出现显著上涨，主要受到四方面因素支撑，其一，地缘政治不确定性上升，避险需 求显著增强，资金持续流入黄金、白银、铂等贵金属资产；其二，美元阶段性走弱，削弱了美元资产吸 引力，推动资金转向以贵金属为代表的实物资产，同时对铜等基本金属价格形成提振；其三，在人工 ...

荷兰银行首席经济学家尼克·库尼斯指出，自2022年底陷入衰退的欧洲最大经济体需重燃"动物精神"， 以推动内需主导的复苏。调查显示，欧元区增速预计将从明年放缓0.2个百分点至2026年的1.2%，2027 年回升至1.4%，与欧洲央行最新预测基本吻合。 去年调查中经济学家对欧央行降息过缓的担忧已被证伪——欧元区2025年经济增速达1.4%，远超此前 预测的0.9%。瑞典商业银行经济学家皮娅·弗罗姆莱特表示："2025年的增长韧性令人惊喜。" TAC Economics首席经济学家莱亚·多法斯称，学界担忧"财政刺激能否转化为持续内需动能而非仅缓冲 外部冲击"。道明证券分析师詹姆斯·罗西特预测地缘政治不确定性将与扩张性财政政策展开"拉锯战"。 乐观派预计财政刺激将强化经济韧性。北欧联合银行首席策略师扬·冯·盖里希（对2026年增速给出1.5% 的最高预测）认为"私人消费存在超预期上行潜力"。芬兰OP波赫约拉银行首席经济学家雷约·海斯卡宁 更预言"欧洲北部将重现活力"。 尽管增长预期分化，多数经济学家认同欧央行已控制通胀。近八成预测2027年通胀率将达2%的中期目 标（2026年略降至1.9%）。四分之三受访者预计欧 ...

当不确定性成为常态，供应链正在被重新定义。 ——唯有理解挑战，方能找到答案；唯有重塑逻辑，方能定义未来。 在两天的高密度思想交流中，论坛将共同探讨： 在全球化体系加速碎片化的当下，供应链不再只是"成本与效率"的较量，而成为"战略竞争力"的核心战场。企业必须重新思考：如何在多变的贸易格局中重 构全球布局？如何以技术韧性应对突发风险？如何在低碳转型中保持增长与竞争力？ 在此背景下，中国供应链企业正站在全球新格局的前沿。 作为全球制造核心与创新引擎，中国企业正从"规模驱动"走向"价值驱动"，从"全球生产基地"迈向"全球创新与可持续枢纽"。在区域化布局、智能化决策与 绿色协同的浪潮中，中国制造业与跨国合资企业将成为全球供应链变革的关键力量。 第三届DSG全球供应链创新与可持续发展高峰论坛，正是在这一时代拐点上诞生。论坛将于 2026 年 3 月 26–27 日在上海 举办。论坛以"创筑链韧，智筑长 青"为主题，汇聚全球供应链与采购领域的决策者、技术实践者与思想引领者，围绕未来五年供应链的核心命题，展开一场高密度、前瞻性的深度对话。 大会将讨论什么？不是概念，而是下一阶段的关键问题： 地缘政治的不确定性、可持续发展的倒 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices has created a tense atmosphere in the market, with gold surpassing $4,526 per ounce and silver reaching $75 per ounce, leading to rapid re-evaluation of positions by traders [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The price increase is driven by multiple factors including geopolitical uncertainties, a temporary weakening of the dollar, and expectations of declining real interest rates, which have disrupted traditional asset allocation models [5]. - The demand for silver from industrial sectors such as photovoltaics and electronics is increasing, raising concerns about supply chain bottlenecks and inventory adjustments [5][9]. Regulatory Environment - Exchanges and public funds are facing dual constraints: physical limits on positions imposed by exchanges and prohibitions on high leverage by public funds, creating a complex situation where relaxing purchase limits could lead to default risks [3][5]. - Notifications from exchanges urging members to strengthen risk management highlight the regulatory focus on position limits and compliance issues [3]. Investor Behavior - Ordinary investors exhibit polarized views, with some seeing gold as a safe haven while others fear a potential bubble, reflecting broader anxieties about household finances [5][9]. - Experts advise investors to focus on asset allocation and risk management, emphasizing the importance of understanding personal investment experience and financial needs [7]. Supply Chain Implications - Businesses are considering delaying inventory replenishment or switching to alternative materials due to compressed profit margins, which could amplify changes in the entire supply chain and impact gold and silver prices [7][9]. - The logistics capabilities of major banks are being expanded to capture profit opportunities from liquidity and settlement capabilities, indicating a shift in market participant risk preferences [7].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has experienced a significant surge, with gold, silver, and platinum reaching historical highs, driven by macroeconomic concerns and increased demand for physical assets [2][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - Spot gold rose by 1.19%, reaching a peak of $4549.96 per ounce [2] - Spot silver surged by 10.47%, surpassing $79 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 18.31% and a year-to-date increase of 174.62% [9][11] - Spot platinum increased by 10.39%, hitting a maximum of $2475 per ounce [2] Group 2: Investor Behavior - There has been a notable increase in transactions, with one jewelry store reporting over 30 kilograms of silver bought back in a single morning [3] - A customer reportedly made a profit of 20,000 yuan by trading silver within a week, highlighting the volatility and potential for quick gains in the current market [3] - The demand for silver is described as frenzied, with significant orders being placed and a shortage of immediate availability [6] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that precious metals will maintain an upward trend due to factors such as the politicization of the Federal Reserve, declining dollar credibility, and a potential silver supply crisis [12] - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and inflation expectations are expected to support gold's value, while silver may outperform due to industrial demand and supply constraints [13] - The market is anticipated to experience higher volatility, with the need for careful timing in trading strategies [13]

12月26日，消息面：周五（12月26日）亚市盘中，现货黄金价格走高，目前交投于4507.61美元/盎司附 近，早间低开高走，开盘4479后直接冲高，一举刷新历史高点，多头动能强劲。此轮贵金属涨势由多重 因素共同驱动：包括市场对美联储2026年继续降息的押注、持续的地缘政治不确定性、全球央行的强劲 购金需求，以及投资类ETF持仓增加。在低利率预期环境下，不生息资产黄金的吸引力显著提升。 技术面：从日图来看，金价虽周三多头动力减弱，但仍维持在上升趋势之中，今日周五开盘也表现走 强，就算再度收取震荡见顶形态，也难以产生较大且持续的回落行情，下方关注5-10日均线支撑等，仍 是看涨入场机会。现货黄金或再次上攻每盎司4530美元这一关键阻力位，一旦有效突破，后续上行目标 有望指向4561-4593美元区间。图表显示，金价此前已两度短暂站上4510美元重要阻力，该位置是从 4022美元起涨的上行趋势的361.8%斐波那契预测位，基于此结构，金价进一步上探4613美元（对应 438.2%预测水平）的概率增大。下行方面需留意4477美元支撑，若失守该位，可能触发技术性回调， 下探4427-4446美元区间。晚间重点关注上方 ...

Market Overview - Global stock markets are closed, leading to light trading activity. After a brief adjustment, the metals sector has strengthened, with gold, silver, and copper prices reaching new highs, while platinum and palladium also rose [1] - On December 26, U.S. stock index futures fell slightly, and major European markets (Germany, France, UK, Italy) were closed for the holiday. Asian markets saw light trading, with Japan's Topix index hitting a new high [1] Metal Prices - The comprehensive rise in the metals market reflects deep investor anxiety about the macro environment and urgent demand for physical assets. Factors include expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts, a declining dollar, and geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East and Africa [1] - Since early December, momentum-driven and speculative behavior have pushed gold and silver prices higher, with expectations of prolonged U.S. rate cuts and increased geopolitical risks contributing to new highs in precious metals [1] - Gold prices may approach $5,000 per ounce and silver prices could reach around $90 per ounce by the first half of 2026 [1] Currency Movements - The offshore yuan is currently at 7.0061, with the onshore yuan's midpoint rate set at 7.0358, up 34 points, marking a new high since September 30, 2024. The offshore yuan broke the psychological level of 7.0 for the first time since September 2024 [1] - The Japanese yen has weakened slightly, with a 0.2% drop against the dollar to around 156.17, as inflation in Japan fell more than expected, leading to increased market expectations for delayed interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [4] - The South Korean won continued its upward trend, rising 1.2% to 1429.85, reaching its highest level since early November, following verbal interventions from authorities and new tax measures to stabilize the foreign exchange market [8] Commodity Prices - Spot gold is trading above $4,500 per ounce, currently at $4,510.54, with a daily high surpassing $4,530, marking a new historical high [10] - Spot silver recorded its fifth consecutive day of gains, currently at $74.62 per ounce, with a daily high breaking $75, also reaching a new historical high [13] - WTI crude oil rose nearly 0.3% to $58.52 per barrel, with traders closely monitoring U.S. restrictions on Venezuelan oil transport and military actions against terrorist organizations in Nigeria [19]