Core Viewpoint - The global airline industry's profit is projected to reach $41 billion in 2023, driven by strong demand and favorable fuel prices, aiding recovery from the pandemic [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - Avolon, along with two other Irish leasing companies, collectively owns and leases approximately one-sixth of the world's aircraft [1] - The growth in profitability is expected to be led by countries such as India, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia [1] - European airlines are anticipated to continue benefiting from a favorable market environment, with profitability expected to remain strong through 2026 [1] Group 2: Challenges and Limitations - Despite strong demand across multiple markets, the airline industry faces limitations due to backlog in new aircraft orders from Boeing and Airbus [1] - The industry is also confronted with adverse factors, including increasing geopolitical uncertainties [1]

转自：新华财经 •银河证券：黄金中长期牛市的核心逻辑依然稳固 银河证券表示，不应将"美联储换帅"自动等同于市场趋势的大拐点，其政策如何影响美国经济的根本面 才是美元定价的基石。一个由沃什领导的美联储，或将开启央行角色的深刻转变：从金融危机后深度介 入、为市场提供支持的"后盾"，转向更为传统、注重规则与纪律约束的"制度锚"。美元预计短期走强， 长期呈"慢熊"格局；美债短期收益率上行，价格承压，中长期若政策可信，长期通胀预期锚定在2%附 近。全球股市短期承压，长期美股先破后立。黄金中长期牛市的核心逻辑依然稳固，央行购金将持续增 加，美元信用的任何瑕疵也会加速全球多极化储备体系的构建。 铜冠金源期货表示，隔夜公布的美国12月JOLTS职位空缺创五年多新低，远低于预期。美国挑战者企业 1月裁员10.8万人，创2009年以来同期新高，环比激增205%。美联储理事库克称，美联储必须在近期将 通胀率拉回目标水平，这对于维护其信誉至关重要。库克认为，目前风险偏向于通胀上行，同时经济前 景不确定性仍处高位。白银价格在短暂反弹之后再度大幅下挫。目前地缘局势暂时缓和，美联储官员发 布鹰派言论，且芝商所与上期所均再度宣布上调黄金白银 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - On February 4, 2026, A - share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.85%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.21%, and ChiNext Index down 0.4%. The trading volume of the three markets in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing was 2.5 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 6.23 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - Different futures varieties had various trends and influencing factors. For example, the prices of some were affected by supply - demand relationships, seasonal factors, international news, and policy expectations [2][4][5] 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Stock Index Futures - On February 4, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4102.20, up 0.85%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14156.27, up 0.21%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3311.51, down 0.4%. The trading volume of the three markets in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing was 2.5 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 6.23 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index fluctuated within a range, closing at 4698.68, up 38.58 [1][2] 3.2 Coke and Coking Coal - On February 4, the coke weighted index was strong, closing at 1773.1, up 48.8. The coking coal weighted index trended stronger, closing at 1217.1 yuan, up 40.4. The price of coke futures was affected by factors such as steel mills' acceptance of price increases, environmental protection, and supply - demand. The price of coking coal was affected by factors such as steel mill production, coal mine production cycles, imports, and downstream demand [2][3][4] 3.3 Zhengzhou Sugar - The 2026/27 global sugar surplus is expected to shrink to 1.4 million tons, lower than 4.7 million tons in 2025/26. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract fluctuated higher on February 4, affected by factors such as the expected reduction in the supply surplus in the next season and the increase in US sugar prices [4] 3.4 Rubber - Affected by the general rise of commodities and the increase in the stock market, Shanghai rubber fluctuated higher on February 4. Due to large short - term gains, it fluctuated and adjusted slightly higher at night. In 2025, Hainan's natural rubber production was 349,500 tons, and Yunnan's was 613,500 tons. In 2025, Indonesia's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber were 1.672 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% [5] 3.5 Soybean Meal - On February 4, the CBOT soybean futures in the international market were strong, reaching a two - month high. Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase, and the harvest rate has reached 10%. In the domestic market, the main soybean meal 2605 contract closed at 2723 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. The pre - festival stocking is coming to an end, and the inventory has increased again. The soybean meal futures price lacks upward momentum [5] 3.6 Live Pigs - On February 4, the main live pig contract LH2605 closed at 11735 yuan/ton, up 1.16%. Before the Spring Festival, the supply pressure is large due to possible early concentrated slaughter. The demand for Spring Festival stocking provides short - term support, but the market is still in a situation of oversupply in the medium term [5] 3.7 Palm Oil - On February 4, the palm oil night session opened higher but then fluctuated downward. The main contract P2605 closed at 9138, up 0.48%. In January 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 13.08% month - on - month [5] 3.8 Shanghai Copper - The main Shanghai copper contract (2603) closed at 105160 yuan/ton. Driven by policies such as national reserve expansion and the suspension of some smelting projects, the supply is expected to shrink. In January, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1793 million tons (year - on - year + 16.32%), and it is expected to decrease by 3.04% in February. The downstream demand is stable, and the inventory pressure still exists [5][6][8] 3.9 Cotton - On February 4, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14655 yuan/ton at night. The cotton inventory increased by 38 lots. The 2025/26 Chinese cotton production is expected to be 7.512 million tons, a significant increase compared to the previous report [8] 3.10 Iron Ore - On February 4, the 2605 main iron ore contract closed down 0.32% at 781.5 yuan. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil has rebounded, the domestic arrival volume has increased slightly, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. The iron ore price is in a volatile trend in the short term [8] 3.11 Asphalt - On February 4, the 2603 main asphalt contract closed up 1.69% at 3361 yuan. The refinery production plan in February has decreased slightly, and the market is in the off - season. The asphalt price shows a volatile trend in the short term [8] 3.12 Logs - On February 4, the 2603 main log contract opened at 801, with a minimum of 798, a maximum of 810.5, and closed at 807.5, with an increase of 427 lots in positions. The port coniferous log inventory has decreased for three consecutive weeks. The price is affected by factors such as the spot market, import data, and inventory changes [8][9] 3.13 Steel - On February 4, rb2605 closed at 3110 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3274 yuan/ton. The steel market activity has continued to decline, and the steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term [9] 3.14 Alumina - On February 4, ao2605 closed at 2824 yuan/ton. There is no news of subsequent production cuts before the Spring Festival, and the new planned production capacity may be put into operation after the Spring Festival. The spot market is in a mild state [9] 3.15 Shanghai Aluminum - On February 4, al2603 closed at 23955 yuan/ton. The supply side is stable, the social inventory continues to accumulate, and the demand side shows a slight decline [9][10]

格隆汇2月4日｜在经历了数十年来最猛烈的一轮抛售后，国际现货黄金价格周三继续走高，延续了前一 交易日的反弹走势。更广泛的地缘政治不确定性，促使资金回流至这一避险资产。在触及5,594.28美元 的历史高位后，黄金于上周五和周一累计下跌逾13%，创下数十年来最严重的两日跌幅。尽管如此，今 年以来金价仍累计上涨超过17%。分析师Edward Meir表示："当市场出现如此剧烈的波动时，通常都会 伴随一轮反弹。"他补充称，"金价或已进入整理区间，未来数周更可能呈现横盘震荡，而非继续出现剧 烈波动。"在地缘政治方面，伊朗与美国计划于本周五在阿曼举行会谈。但紧张局势依然存在，美国军 方周二称，在阿拉伯海击落了一架接近美军航母的伊朗无人机。宏观数据方面，美国1月私人部门就业 增长不及预期。ADP数据显示，当月仅新增2.2万个岗位，远低于市场此前预计的4.8万个。 ...

路透调查显示，黄金有望在2026年再度迎来创纪录表现，分析师纷纷上调预测，地缘政治不确定性与央 行强劲购金仍是主要推手。 过去三周对30位分析师和交易员的调查显示，2026年黄金均价预测中位数为每金衡盎司4746.50美元， 为路透2012年开展此类调查以来的最高年度预测，远高于去年10月预测的4275美元。 黄金近期大幅上涨促使分析师多次上调预测。一年前，类似调查显示2026年的均价预测仅为2700美元。 贵金属交易商Gold Core首席执行官David Russell表示："我们正进入一个时期，支撑全球经济和地缘政 治稳定数十年的制度与体系的合法性和韧性，正以一代人未见的方式经受考验。" 黄金看涨因素仍在 周三金价反弹至5100美元附近，此前一天创下逾17年来最大单日涨幅，从1983年以来最严重的两日大跌 中恢复。 分析师认为，推动黄金上涨的因素——包括地缘政治风险、央行强劲购金、对美联储独立性的担忧、美 国债务攀升、贸易不确定性及去美元化趋势——将在2026年继续支撑这种避险资产。 德意志银行分析师表示，"黄金的主题性驱动因素依然积极，我们认为投资者配置黄金（及贵金属）的 理由不会改变。" 分析师预计 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail prices for gasoline and diesel will increase starting February 3, with gasoline prices rising by 205 yuan per ton and diesel by 195 yuan per ton, reflecting fluctuations in international oil prices during the adjustment period [3][7]. Price Adjustments - From February 3, the national average prices for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel will increase by 0.16 yuan, 0.17 yuan, and 0.17 yuan per liter, respectively [3][7]. - Filling a 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will cost an additional 8 yuan [3][7]. International Oil Price Trends - During the adjustment period from January 20 to February 2, international oil prices experienced a rise followed by a decline, with the average price higher than the previous adjustment cycle [3][7]. - Initial price increases were driven by geopolitical tensions, including increased U.S. pressure on Iran and severe winter weather affecting U.S. oil production and exports, leading to a significant drop in commercial oil inventories [3][7]. - Brent crude oil futures prices peaked above $70 per barrel but later fell to around $66 per barrel as geopolitical tensions eased with the initiation of U.S.-Iran negotiations [3][7]. Future Outlook - The National Development and Reform Commission anticipates continued volatility in international oil prices due to geopolitical uncertainties, despite the initiation of dialogue between the U.S. and Iran [5][9]. - The International Monetary Fund has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3%, while the International Energy Agency has increased its global oil demand growth forecast for this year by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day, indicating a potential support for future oil prices [5][9].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic fuel price adjustment window will open on February 3, with significant increases in retail prices for gasoline and diesel due to fluctuations in international oil prices during the adjustment period [1][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - From February 3, the retail price of gasoline and diesel will increase by 205 yuan and 195 yuan per ton, respectively [1]. - The average price increase for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel will be 0.16 yuan, 0.17 yuan, and 0.17 yuan per liter, respectively [1]. - Filling a 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline will cost an additional 8 yuan [1]. Group 2: International Oil Price Trends - During the adjustment period (January 20 to February 2), international oil prices experienced fluctuations, initially rising due to geopolitical tensions and adverse weather conditions in the U.S. [3]. - Brent crude oil futures prices briefly exceeded $70 per barrel due to increased U.S. pressure on Iran and a significant drop in crude oil exports from the Gulf of Mexico [3]. - By the end of the period, Brent crude oil prices fell to around $66 per barrel as geopolitical tensions eased with the initiation of U.S.-Iran negotiations [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The National Development and Reform Commission anticipates continued volatility in international oil prices due to geopolitical uncertainties, despite the initiation of dialogue between the U.S. and Iran [4]. - The International Monetary Fund has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3%, indicating potential support for oil prices [4]. - The International Energy Agency has also increased its forecast for global oil demand growth this year by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day, suggesting an improving economic outlook [4].

金银：国内情绪性跌势远大于外部 中辉有色观点 | I | 1000 - 1000 6 1 | | | 15 2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 11 | No | 1 | | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 市场关注交易情绪层面，早已超买和超高的 VIX 指数情绪被浇灭，金银飞流直下三 | | | 等待降波 | 千尺。基本面短期对盘面影响不大，中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央 | | ★ | | 行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。本周关注调整幅度 | | | | 此前提示白银交易太过于拥挤，这一天回来，近日调整甚是惨烈。尽管长期理由仍 | | 白银 | 等待企稳 | 然存在供需缺口连续 5 年，全球大财政均对白银长期有利），但是短期市场会沉浸 | | ★★ | | 在悲观情绪中，保持关注。 | | | | 美国制造业 PMI 超预期，提振市场风险偏好，但随着长假临近，中下游需求疲软叠 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 加投机多头获利了结意愿强烈，短期建议降低仓位控 ...

大摩预期，A股短期重磅股会跑赢细价股，因重磅股估值已跌至5年低位，而且临近农历新年，估值及 收益率均具吸引力的重磅股料更令投资者安心，同时新年期间市场流动性趋紧，投资者或会在休市前先 行获利。 全球股市上周五大幅震荡，摩根士丹利中国首席股票策略师王滢在报告中认为，尽管近期全球市场波动 性加剧，但中国市场流动性仍然向好，这主要得益于有效的A股降温措施、人民币汇率走强及香港市场 出现监管持续向好的早期迹象，短期看好港股跑赢A股，但仍取决于全球市场波动性能否迅速减低。此 外，大摩提到，全球地缘政治不确定性加剧，应会提升中国资产的吸引力，而香港自然成为首选之地。 "全球地缘政治不确定性加剧，应会提升中国资产的吸引力，而香港自然成为首选之地，因其估值仍然 合理，全球投资者持仓仍然偏低，而且股票投资机会众多，新股IPO市场活跃亦提供助力。此外，大摩 预测人民币汇率将进一步走强，这也有助于提升香港的吸引力。" 大摩指，今年来经历持续向上的牛市后，随农历新年迫近，该行观察到一些获利回吐的情况，但近期市 场出现的多项进展，将持续支持港、A市场流动性向好，但"假若全球抛售潮持续，大市回调可能会持 续更长时间"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dailies International (00333) anticipates a net loss of no more than HKD 40 million for the six months ending December 31, 2025, compared to a net loss of HKD 15.8 million in the same period of 2024 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The expected loss is primarily attributed to a significant decline in revenue due to reduced order volumes from major clients [1] - The decline in orders reflects increased geopolitical uncertainty, fluctuations in the global trade environment, and anticipated price adjustments affecting consumer demand [1] - The gross margin has decreased mainly due to idle production capacity leading to insufficient allocation of fixed costs and a product mix skewed towards lower-margin products [1]