1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper rose 0.61% to $9,707.5/ton, SHFE copper up 0.58% to 78,570 yuan/ton. US trade deficit in April narrowed 55.5%, but jobless claims rose. LME copper stocks fell, Comex increased, and SHFE declined. Demand slowed due to the off - season. Sino - US trade conflict eased, and LME de - stocking supported prices. Copper prices face a directional choice, with resistance at 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina trended weakly, AO2509 down 1.17% to 2,953 yuan/ton. Shanghai aluminum was strong, AL2507 up 0.1% to 20,075 yuan/ton. Spot alumina prices fell, and upstream costs eased. Alumina production resumed, and the supply shortage improved. Aluminum demand had structural resilience, and the US tariff hike provided short - term support [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel rose 0.75% to $15,445/ton, Shanghai nickel up 0.28% to 122,060 yuan/ton. LME and SHFE stocks decreased. Nickel ore prices were stable. Stainless - steel demand was weak, and new - energy demand was also sluggish. The market was in a short - term oscillation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On June 5, 2025, the price of flat - water copper dropped 85 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased 55 yuan/ton. LME stocks fell 3,350 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased 246 tons, and social inventory increased 1.4 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead rose 70 yuan/ton, and LME stocks increased 1,100 tons, while the weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased 1,928 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: On June 5, 2025, the Wuxi and Nanhai quotes declined. LME stocks fell 2,025 tons, and the weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased 16,856 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: On June 5, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel dropped 375 yuan/ton. LME stocks decreased 900 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts fell 48 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main contract settlement price dropped 0.2%, LME stocks increased 875 tons, and social inventory decreased 0.09 million tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main contract settlement price rose 1.5%, LME stocks decreased 160 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased 338 tons [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [6][7][9]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][17][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][36][38]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][47]. 3.3 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: Master of Science, Director of Non - ferrous Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, Senior Precious Metals Researcher, Intermediate Gold Investment Analyst, Excellent Metal Analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Best Industrial Futures Analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. With over a decade of commodity research experience, he has published many articles and been interviewed by multiple media. His team won industry awards [50]. - **Wang Heng**: Master of Finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, Non - ferrous Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on aluminum and silicon research [50]. - **Zhu Xi**: Master of Science from the University of Warwick, UK, Non - ferrous Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on lithium and nickel research [51].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report for May is expected to show an increase of 130,000 jobs, down from the previous increase of 177,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate forecasted to remain at 4.2% [1][4] Employment Data Analysis - The ADP employment data for May indicates that only 37,000 new jobs were created in the private sector, marking the smallest increase in over two years and significantly below the market expectation of 110,000 [3][4] - The weak ADP data has led to increased short-term bullish sentiment for gold, as it suggests a slowdown in job growth amid ongoing trade tensions [3][4] - Despite the weak job creation figures, wage growth remains strong, with no significant changes reported in May [3] Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts predict that if the upcoming non-farm payroll data aligns with market expectations, it will confirm a cooling job market, reinforcing expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [12] - A non-farm payroll figure below 130,000 could trigger heightened expectations for earlier and more substantial rate cuts, potentially leading to a significant rise in gold prices [12] - Conversely, if the data exceeds expectations, particularly approaching 200,000, it may exert downward pressure on gold prices, failing to alter the prevailing economic slowdown outlook due to tariffs [12] Economic Context - The ongoing trade war has caused many companies to pause hiring, contributing to the slowdown in job growth [4][8] - The Federal Reserve is expected to remain patient in its monetary policy approach, observing the labor market for signs of genuine weakness before making any decisions on interest rate adjustments [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Cook indicates that tariffs may increase the likelihood of a cooling job market and exacerbate inflationary pressures [1] Group 1 - Tariffs are suggested to have a direct impact on the employment market, potentially leading to a slowdown [1] - The imposition of tariffs is linked to heightened risks of rising inflation [1]

Group 1 - The British pound is experiencing a narrow consolidation pattern against the US dollar, with the latest exchange rate at 1.3302, showing a slight decline of 0.01% [1] - Weak employment data in the UK is exerting short-term pressure on the pound, but rising expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Bank of England are injecting positive long-term economic outlook [1][3] - The UK labor market data confirms the trend of economic slowdown, with the unemployment rate rising from 4.4% to 4.5% and new job additions dropping significantly to 112,000, well below the previous figure of 206,000 [3] Group 2 - The US inflation data shows a structural cooling, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth slowing to 2.3% in April, down from 2.4% and below market expectations [3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 2.8%, aligning with expectations, while both overall and core CPI grew by only 0.2% month-on-month, significantly lower than the 0.3% market forecast [3] - The technical analysis indicates a balanced market with moving averages intertwining, and key resistance and support levels identified at 1.3402 and 1.3165 respectively, suggesting a potential trading range for investors [4]