Group 1 - China's foreign trade shows strong resilience, with total import and export value reaching 3.9 trillion yuan in November, a year-on-year growth rate of 4.1%, marking ten consecutive months of growth [2] - Exports in November amounted to 2.35 trillion yuan, while imports were 1.55 trillion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.7% and 1.7% respectively, indicating sustained vitality in foreign trade [2] - The cumulative import and export value for the first eleven months reached 41.21 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.6%, consistent with the previous ten months [2] Group 2 - The diversification of export markets has shown positive results, with trade with ASEAN growing by 8.5%, and exports to Africa, Latin America, and the EU increasing by 18.7%, 5.6%, and 5.4% respectively [2] - Over 110 countries and regions experienced simultaneous growth in exports and imports with China in the first eleven months, an increase of over 20 compared to the same period last year [2] Group 3 - The export structure is evolving, with green travel and winter sports equipment emerging as significant growth areas in international markets [4] - The export of electric bicycles is rapidly increasing, with sales on cross-border e-commerce platforms surging, exemplified by a 40-fold increase in sales during the 2025 Black Friday period [4][5] - The demand for winter sports equipment, such as ice skates and ski apparel, has also seen double-digit growth, particularly in North America and Central and Eastern Europe [4][5]

Export Performance - In November, China's exports reached $330.35 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.9%, recovering from a previous decline of -1.1%[5] - The ten-year average year-on-year export growth rate for November is 2.8%[5] - The increase in exports is supported by global economic recovery and market diversification, alongside a low base effect from last year[6] Import Trends - Imports in November totaled $218.67 billion, with a growth rate of 1.9%, slightly up from 1% previously[5] - The ten-year average year-on-year import growth rate for November is 0%[7] - Industrial production recovery and increased demand for certain commodities, such as grains (15.4% growth) and rubber (11.3% growth), supported import growth[7] Trade Surplus - The trade surplus for November was $111.68 billion, an increase from $90.07 billion in the previous month[5] Regional Export Dynamics - Exports to the EU increased by 14.8%, significantly up from 0.9% previously, likely due to pre-Christmas shipping demands[15] - Exports to the US saw a larger decline, with a year-on-year growth rate of -28.6%, worsening from -25.2%[15] - Exports to Africa rebounded to 27.6%, contributing 1.4 percentage points to overall export growth[16] Product-Specific Insights - The export growth rate for mechanical and high-tech products improved, with automotive exports increasing by 53% and integrated circuits by 34.2%[22] - Labor-intensive products showed varying recovery, with a notable improvement in toys and textiles[24] Future Outlook - Cumulative export growth from January to November was 5.4%, with a projected annual growth rate of 5.8% for 2024[26] - The export growth outlook remains resilient despite uncertainties in US-China relations and global economic conditions[26] Risks - Potential risks include weakening external demand, domestic economic downturns, and escalating trade tensions[33]

外贸，拉动经济增长的"三驾马车"之一。 前三季度，我国货物贸易进出口总值同比增长4%。上半年，新设外资企业同比增长4.1%。面对复杂严峻的外部环境，我国外贸韧性彰显，外 资持续加码。 12月4日，一艘满载集装箱的货轮驶离青岛港前湾港区码头（无人机照片）。新华社记者 李紫恒 摄 ■外贸产品结构不断优化，出口新动能增势良好 据海关统计，前10个月，我国出口机电产品13.43万亿元，同比增长8.7%，拉动我国整体出口增长5.2个百分点。 10月13日，在江苏省连云港港东方港务分公司码头，大批风电设备集港准备装船出口国外（无人机照片）。新华社发（王春 摄） "新三样"产品、铁道电力机车、风力发电机组等绿色产品出口增速都达到两位数。向新、向智、向绿等新动能不断涌现，持续推动我国外贸 提质增效。 ■不断开拓新兴市场，贸易伙伴更趋多元化 数据显示，前10个月，我国对共建"一带一路"国家合计进出口19.28万亿元，增长5.9%。其中，东盟继续保持我国第一大贸易伙伴地位，对东 盟进出口同比增长9.1%，对亚太经合组织（APEC）其他经济体进出口增长1.5%。此外，我国自拉美、非洲和中亚国家进口分别增长1%、5.2%和 23.7 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's export resilience has provided a bright spot for economic growth despite adverse external conditions, with significant contributions from the manufacturing sector and diversified market strategies [1][7]. Group 1: Export Performance - In the first ten months of the year, China's export value increased by 6.2%, with exports to at least 177 trading partners growing faster than this average [4][5]. - The contribution of net exports to GDP growth was 29%, adding 1.5 percentage points to the overall GDP growth [1]. - Exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 13.43 trillion yuan, growing by 8.7% and accounting for 60.7% of total exports [2][3]. Group 2: Product Categories - High-tech products now represent 24.8% of total exports, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.3% in the first ten months [3]. - Notable growth was observed in biotechnology, optoelectronics, electronics, computer integrated manufacturing, materials technology, and aerospace technology, all exceeding 12% growth [3]. Group 3: Market Diversification - The proportion of exports to countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative has surpassed 50%, indicating a significant shift in trade relationships [6][5]. - The concentration of trade partners has decreased, with the combined export value to the top three partners dropping from 48.51% in 2018 to 43.9% in the current year [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts an 8% growth in actual exports for the year, driven by ongoing structural upgrades in manufacturing and market diversification [7][8]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes innovation and market diversification as key strategies for enhancing trade resilience and security [7][8].

对全球170多个国家和地区出口增速保持在6.2%以上、单月机电产品出口额占比连续4个月保持在60%以 上、对共建"一带一路"国家出口额占比超过50%，前三季度，货物和服务净出口对经济增长贡献率为 29%，拉动GDP增长1.5个百分点……今年来，外部环境变化带来的不利影响加深，中国出口超预期的 韧性顶住了压力，为经济增长提供了亮点与动能。中国制造业产业结构持续转型升级以及更加多元的市 场布局仍是出口保持韧性的巨大底气。 向"新"力持续涌现 小小潮玩风靡全球，中国原创IP"LABUBU"无疑是今年的消费单品顶流之一。 不久前在美国纽约举行的"梅西百货感恩节大游行"上，包括LABUBU在内的一众泡泡玛特旗下IP首次亮 相，展现了中国IP的影响力。据泡泡玛特最新业绩报告，今年第三季度，该公司在美洲的收益增幅超 1200%，在欧洲及其他地区的收益增幅也超过700%。中国是传统玩具制造大国，完整、高效的产业链 体系铸就了我国在全球分工中不可替代的作用。中国潮玩的崛起则让世界看到了中国制造的品牌力与 向"新"力。 除了传统劳动密集型产品向产业链价值链上游突围，机电产品以及更细分的高新技术产品份额突破也成 为今年出口的亮点来 ...

中国的外贸这些年原本发展势头迅猛，产品质量和竞争力不断提升，市场遍布全球。然而，外部环境总是不断变化，影响了外贸的稳定性。比如，俄罗斯近 期加强了对过境货物的检查，一些货物在通关时停滞了几个月；美国方面，邮政服务突然宣布停止接收来自中国的包裹，关税政策也是变化莫测。这些变动 表面上看是针对物流和贸易规则的调整，但实际上深层次的原因在于大国间的博弈和复杂的国际局势。我们应该从长远的角度看待这些问题，外贸的困难不 在于产品本身，而是国际形势的变化考验着我们如何适应和应对。 尽管面临各种外部挑战，中国的外贸依然表现出强大的韧性。2025年，前10个月中国外贸总值达到了37.31万亿元，同比增长3.6%。其中，出口增长了 6.2%。这些数据表明，尽管面临困境，我们并未被这些外部变化拖垮。特别是转向东盟市场，是中国外贸的一项明智选择。在2025年前10个月，中国对东 盟的进出口额达到了6.18万亿元，增长了9.1%，占外贸总值的16.6%。东盟国家经济发展迅速，制造业基础较为薄弱，对中国商品的需求巨大，中国的纺织 品、机电产品恰好填补了这一市场空白。与欧美市场相比，东盟的关税较低，合作框架也更加稳定，这使得外贸市场的分 ...

海 外 征 伐 ， 户 储 军 团 的 崛 起 户用储能（即家庭储能系统） ，是一种针对家庭用户的模块化能源存储装置，可以帮助家庭实现能源自给、降低电费支出，并提升用电可靠 性。 户用储能市场是一个典型的 外向型市场 ，主要集中在高电价的国家，在欧洲、美国、日本、澳大利亚等发达市场已然成熟，并正逐步向东南 亚、非洲、南美等新兴区域拓展。 依托完善的光伏与储能产业链， 一批中国户储品牌凭借产品力与渠道力成功出海， 奠定了自身的市场地位。从2025年上半年业绩看，这支"海 外军团"依然表现亮眼： 派能科技 ，上半年营收11.49亿元，同比增加33.75%，产品销售量达1328MWh，同比增长132.57%。 文 | 中关村储能产业技术联盟 在能源转型的十字路口，一批凭借海外户储市场崭露头角的中国储能企业，正面临一道关乎未来命运的战略选择题。 当海外市场从蓝海变为红海，当国内储能商业模式逐步跑通，是继续深耕熟悉的海外战场，还是也要争夺国内已成规模的储能大市场？ 固德威 ，上半年营收40.86亿元，同比增长29.80%。逆变器销量约为39.95万台，其中储能逆变器销量约为3.32万台，占比约8.31%。 德业股份 ， ...

前言： 家人们爆大瓜了！今年以来，特朗普政府掀起的关税风暴让全球贸易市场风声鹤唳。美国对中国出口商 品的关税税率一度飙升至125%，冲突烈度远超上一轮贸易摩擦。 就在外界担忧中国出口会遭受重创时，数据给出了意外答案：上半年中国货物出口占全球份额升至 14.2%，创下历史同期新高。 在如此严峻的外部环境下，中国出口为何能保持强劲韧性？这背后既有市场布局和产业升级的硬支撑， 也暗藏着需要警惕的隐忧。 市场多元化：对冲美国关税冲击的关键 上一轮中美贸易冲突爆发时，中国对美出口依赖度还在20%左右，而现在这一比例已经降至10%上下。 依赖度的下降，让本轮关税冲击的影响大幅缓解。 欧洲市场也带来了惊喜。受需求回暖以及中欧合作加深的影响，前10个月中国对欧盟出口增长7.5%， 拉动整体出口增速1.1个百分点，比上年同期多贡献0.8个百分点。 这些数据清晰表明，中国出口已经摆脱了对美国市场的过度依赖，形成了多点开花的格局，这也是抵御 外部贸易政策冲击的重要底气。 商品结构升级：制造业竞争力的硬核支撑 今年前10个月，中国对美出口累计降幅高达17.8%，连续七个月保持两位数下滑，仅这一项就拖累整体 出口增速2.6个百分点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite significant pressure from increased tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties, China's overall export growth has exceeded market expectations, showcasing remarkable resilience in the face of challenges [2][3]. Group 1: China's Export Resilience - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's total export reached $2.8 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, marking the highest level for the same period in nearly three years [2][3]. - The net export of goods and services contributed 1.5 percentage points to GDP growth, the second-highest in nearly a decade, only behind the recovery period of 2021 [2]. Group 2: Market Diversification and Structural Upgrading - Exports to non-U.S. markets have shown significant growth, compensating for the decline in exports to the U.S. [5][6]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, exports to Africa, ASEAN, India, the UK, the EU, Latin America, and Canada grew by 28.3%, 14.7%, 12.9%, 8.7%, 8.2%, 6.9%, and 5.1% respectively, collectively contributing approximately 6.3 percentage points to overall export growth [5][6]. Group 3: Changes in Export Structure - The share of intermediate goods in total exports increased from 41.7% in 2017 to 47.4% in the first three quarters of 2025, while the share of consumer goods decreased from 37.2% to 32.5% [9][10]. - Intermediate goods and capital goods have become the main drivers of overall export growth, with intermediate goods exports growing by 10.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [9][11]. Group 4: Trade Relations with Major Economies - The trade relationship with developed economies like the U.S. and EU is shifting from complementarity to a mix of competition and cooperation, with China's exports to these regions facing pressure [12][13]. - Despite challenges, there remains potential for growth in high-value intermediate and capital goods exports to developed economies, as China's competitiveness in high-tech sectors continues to improve [14][15]. Group 5: Emerging Markets as Growth Drivers - Emerging markets, particularly in Africa, are becoming significant growth markets for Chinese exports, with a shift in the export structure from consumer goods to capital and intermediate goods [19][20]. - China's exports to Africa have increased from 4.2% to 5% of total exports from 2017 to 2024, with capital goods' share rising from 17.4% to 24% during the same period [19][20].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance of China's export and import data for October 2025, as well as the challenges faced by the real estate market in China. Export Data - In October 2025, China's export growth rate declined to -6.4%, influenced by fewer working days due to the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, a high base effect from the previous year (12.6%), and a divergence in foreign trade demand [1][2] - Cumulative export growth from January to October 2025 was 5.3%, with optimistic projections suggesting a maximum annual growth rate of 5.7% and a neutral expectation of around 5.2% [1][5] - Exports to various regions showed a decline: ASEAN from 15.6% to 11%, Africa from 56.4% to 10.6%, and Latin America from 15.2% to 2.1% [1][3] Import Data - In October 2025, the import growth rate significantly dropped to 1%, down from 7.4% in September, primarily due to insufficient domestic demand [6] - Key imports included integrated circuits and automobiles, with integrated circuit imports decreasing from 32.7% to 26.9% and automobile imports increasing from 10.9% to 34% [7][8] Real Estate Market Challenges - The real estate market is facing challenges with declining sales area, average prices, and investment amounts, leading to increased financial pressure on real estate companies [10][11] - Sales data showed a downward trend across all regions, with significant declines in domestic loans, deposits, and personal mortgage loans [11][14] - The market remains cautious, requiring effective policy support to alleviate financial pressures on real estate firms [14] Future Outlook - For 2026, despite risks such as inventory buildup and trade policy uncertainties, China's export growth is expected to remain resilient at approximately 4.4% [9] - The focus of the 15th Five-Year Plan for real estate development emphasizes high-quality growth, improving housing supply, and enhancing regulatory frameworks for pre-sale systems [12]