中经记者 张家振 衢州报道 余永定指出，从日本、美国和英国等国房地产业发展情况和趋势来看，都曾经历过多轮波动，经过多年 的修复才逐步回复到此前的峰值水平。具体来看，日本房地产泡沫在1991年破灭，2013年开始回升，在 经过多轮波动后，日本房价大致恢复到当年的70%（不同地段情况不同）。美国房价自2006年下跌， 2012年开始回升，2018年前后全国房价大致回归到2006年峰值水平。英国自2007—2008年金融危机后， 用了7—8年时间，房价就回到危机前的峰值水平。英国在20世纪90年代房价也曾暴跌，从1989年开始下 跌直至2007年前后房价才恢复到暴跌前的水平。 美国的次贷危机主要是由次贷借款人"逾期违约"引发的。从我国全国平均水平看，中国按揭贷款借款人 的弃贷、拖欠还款逾期违约情况并不严重，但也要更好防止房地产开发商违约、破产导致的银行不良债 权上升等问题，避免引发金融风险。 在余永定看来，为更好解决房地产业和房企面临的问题，宏观调控政策可以从三方面入手：稳定资产价 格；在短期货币市场注入流动性；国有机构入股或临时国有化注入资本金。目前，政府已经采取的具体 措施包括："保交楼"与项目盘活，存量房"收 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：上海楼市情报） 2025年8月25日，上海六部门联合印发《关于优化调整本市房地产政策措施的通知》，被市场称为"825 新政"，开启上海新一轮救市。 新政内容包括调减外环外限购、优化公积金政策、调整信贷政策和完善个人住房房产税等四大维度。政 策出台后首月，上海市外环外新房成交占全市的比重达73.45%，创下年内新高。 然而，政策效应未能持续。今年10月，上海新房市场成交面积环比下降22.7%，呈现高位回落态势。市 场在政策效应集中释放后，再现疲态。 01 上海楼市分化明显！ 上海"825新政"救市意图明显，旨在通过精准降低刚需和改善型需求的购房成本，激活市场。 政策刺激下，上海楼市呈现出鲜明的分化特征。 高端项目表现尤为抢眼。上海壹号院以217.8亿元的销售额领跑市场，金陵华庭、翡雲悦府等项目紧随 其后。内中环、中外环成交量分别同比上涨24%、18%，成交金额分别上涨22%、27%。 与核心区形成鲜明对比的是，外围区域市场承压明显。今年1-3季度，郊环外区域去化周期拉长至36个 月。外环外库存高企，去化压力巨大。 二手房市场是观察楼市真实状况的重要窗口。 政策仍有优化空间！未来… 面对当 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses recent developments in real estate policies in China, highlighting the focus on enhancing housing security for young teachers and the promotion of current housing sales to boost market confidence [1][3]. Central Policies - The Ministry of Education and five other departments have included eligible young teachers in urban housing security measures, aiming to strengthen the talent pool for new urbanization [2][3]. - Recent articles from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasize the potential for the real estate sector to transition from scale expansion to quality improvement, focusing on rental, operation, and service sectors for new growth [3]. Local Policies - Pingjiang County in Hunan has implemented a policy for current housing sales, requiring new residential properties to complete construction acceptance before being sold, marking it as the first county in Hunan to adopt this approach [4][5]. - Fuzhou has introduced two new regulations to tighten the management of commodity housing sales and the credit rating of real estate companies, linking high credit ratings to earlier pre-sale timelines and more lenient financial supervision [5]. - Other cities, such as Nanchang and Guangzhou, have also introduced measures to regulate parking space sales and promote prefabricated construction, respectively, indicating a trend towards enhancing market transparency and efficiency [6][5]. Policy Trends - The frequency of local policy announcements aimed at stabilizing the market has decreased, while new regulations related to industry order have increased, suggesting a shift towards more structured governance in the real estate sector [8][10]. - The article anticipates an increase in policies related to "good housing," industry order, and urban renewal in the future, aligning with the goals outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [8][10].

Core Insights - The real estate sector is experiencing significant pressure with high base growth rates leading to a decline in market performance [1] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating potential investment opportunities despite current challenges [2] Market Performance - In October 2025, the transaction volume of commodity residential properties in 46 cities decreased by 33.3% year-on-year, with a notable decline in first-tier cities at 39.1% [11][12] - The cumulative transaction volume from January to October 2025 shows a 10.9% year-on-year decrease [11] - The second-hand housing market also faced challenges, with transaction volumes in 11 cities down by 21.3% year-on-year [35] Market Sentiment - The second-hand housing prices fell by 1.7% month-on-month in October 2025, marking a total decline of 13.0% since the beginning of the year [5][35] - Inventory levels in the new housing market showed a slight decrease, with a 2.1% reduction in short-term inventory in 10 key cities [5] Policy Environment - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes promoting high-quality development in real estate, shifting from suppression to encouragement of reasonable demand [5][29] - The government is gradually lifting restrictive measures, which may positively impact market sentiment in the long term [5] Land Market Dynamics - In October 2025, the land transfer revenue in 600 cities dropped by 27.8% year-on-year, indicating a cooling land market [5] - The average land premium rate fell to 3.3%, the lowest since 2025, reflecting cautious bidding behavior among developers [5] Company Performance - The top 100 real estate companies reported a sales amount of 276.6 billion yuan in October 2025, a 41% year-on-year decline [29] - State-owned enterprises showed a year-on-year sales decline of 37%, while private enterprises faced a more severe drop of 52% [30] Investment Outlook - The SW Real Estate Index fell by 2.37% in October 2025, underperforming the broader market by 2.4 percentage points [5] - The report suggests holding quality real estate development companies, as the market is expected to stabilize and recover gradually [5]

Core Insights - The first group standard for "Implementation and Evaluation Guidelines for Building Inspections" in China is nearing completion and is expected to be officially released in December 2023 [1] - The standard aims to address the aging issue of over 660 billion square meters of existing buildings in China, providing a systematic and standardized solution [1][2] - This initiative aligns with the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's vision for high-quality real estate development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] Summary by Sections - **Standard Development**: The guidelines are being developed by the China Real Estate Association, with contributions from the China Academy of Building Research and Beijing Zhongfang Research Information Service Co., Ltd. The focus is on enhancing the capabilities of inspection personnel and institutions, defining inspection methods, equipment, and report templates, and refining the evaluation grading system [1] - **Key Features**: The guidelines include a comprehensive dynamic monitoring system that combines daily, basic, and special inspections. They promote the use of smart technologies such as drones and wall-climbing robots, and introduce a dual-core system of "management + implementation" along with a three-star evaluation standard to ensure scientific and practical applicability [1] - **Industry Impact**: With over 35% of buildings being over 30 years old, the guidelines will shift the focus of building safety management from "treating existing problems" to "preventing future issues," thereby providing a "health protection umbrella" for existing buildings and stimulating related industries to contribute to the high-quality development of the real estate sector [2]

Summary of the Conference Call on Real Estate Industry Opportunities Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the real estate industry in the context of the "15th Five-Year Plan" (2025-2030) emphasizing high-quality development and regulatory improvements in real estate practices [1][2][18]. Core Points and Arguments High-Quality Development Focus - The shift from "housing is for living, not for speculation" to "high-quality development" indicates a significant change in policy direction [2][18]. - The plan outlines five key directions for real estate development: new development models, optimizing affordable housing supply, increasing supply of improved housing, constructing quality homes, and establishing a housing safety management system [2][18]. Inventory Management and Sales - The plan emphasizes the need to manage existing inventory effectively, with a current inventory of 400 million square meters of residential properties, representing 25.3% of total inventory [5]. - The proportion of existing homes sold has increased to 32% in the first nine months of 2025, up 22 percentage points from 2020 [5]. Affordable Housing Optimization - The focus has shifted from merely increasing affordable housing to optimizing existing resources, including converting some existing inventory into affordable housing [7]. - From 2021 to 2024, approximately 7.8 million units of affordable housing were constructed, addressing housing needs for over 20 million people [7]. Improved Housing Supply - The plan introduces targeted measures to increase the supply of improved housing based on local needs, with larger units (over 120 square meters) seeing a 3.4 percentage point increase in market share [8][9]. - High-demand cities require more improved housing supply to match structural demand [9]. Quality and Safety Enhancements - The plan calls for the construction of safe, comfortable, and environmentally friendly homes, with new regulations aimed at improving residential quality and property management [10]. - A comprehensive safety management system for buildings throughout their lifecycle is proposed, addressing safety concerns for aging structures [11][12]. Urban Renewal and Land Utilization - Urban renewal is highlighted as a key area for investment, with a projected total investment of 16.6 trillion yuan from 2021 to 2024 [15]. - Policies to revitalize underutilized land and assets are being developed, with over 620 billion yuan allocated for acquiring idle land [16]. Risk Management and Regulatory Changes - The plan emphasizes the need for coordinated management of both new and existing land, allowing for more flexible and long-term planning by local governments [17]. - Measures to mitigate risks associated with real estate, local government debt, and financial institutions are prioritized to prevent systemic risks [17]. Other Important Insights - The plan indicates a potential easing of home purchase restrictions in first-tier cities, reflecting a more direct approach to promoting healthy housing consumption [13][19]. - The commercial real estate sector is expected to adapt to new consumer demands, with a focus on creating diverse consumption scenarios [14][21]. - Investors are advised to focus on stable companies in core cities, smaller firms with significant breakthroughs, and commercial real estate companies adapting to new consumption patterns [21][22]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding the real estate industry's future direction, regulatory changes, and investment opportunities.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in the real estate market, emphasizing the shift from concerns about affordability to issues related to selling properties, highlighting the need for a reassessment of property values in the current economic climate [2][4]. Market Trends - From January to September, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, with a slight price increase in new homes during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, while the second-hand housing market continues to adjust [3]. - The construction of new commercial housing is projected to see a 12.9% year-on-year decline in sales area for 2024, with an increasing number of second-hand homes listed for sale since the second half of 2023 [10]. Policy Direction - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development in real estate, shifting focus from merely increasing supply to improving the quality of housing [8][11]. - The plan aims to increase the supply of improvement housing, which refers to new homes purchased to enhance living quality, rather than just meeting basic housing needs [11]. Housing Quality - Key aspects of what constitutes a "good house" include safety, comfort, green technology, and smart features, with a focus on improving property management and quality of service [12][14]. - The article suggests implementing a full lifecycle safety management system for homes, including regular safety inspections and quality insurance [14][15]. Sales Model Transformation - The promotion of a "current housing sales system" aims to mitigate delivery risks associated with pre-sale models, ensuring buyers receive what they see [15][17]. - The proportion of current housing sales has increased from 10% in 2019 to 33% at the beginning of this year, indicating a trend towards this model [17]. Demographic Shifts - The article notes that the aging population and urbanization trends are influencing housing demand, with a significant focus on improving housing for the elderly and accommodating young families in major cities [22][24]. - The core urban areas continue to attract population inflows, with cities like Hangzhou expected to see a population increase of 102,000 in 2024 [18]. Expert Opinions - Experts suggest that the real estate market will continue to adjust and stabilize, with significant differentiation between core and non-core areas in major cities [21]. - Recommendations include monitoring housing prices in core urban areas and considering rental options in less populated cities [21][24]. Future Policy Recommendations - Potential policy measures include lowering mortgage rates, optimizing purchase restrictions in major cities, and encouraging investment in quality housing projects [23][26]. - The article also discusses innovative approaches to managing unsold properties, such as converting them into rental units or public housing [24].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate industry is undergoing a systematic transformation, shifting from a "high growth" model to a focus on "high-quality development" that prioritizes the needs of residents and their living conditions [1][2][4] Group 1: High-Quality Development - The recent guidelines emphasize the importance of "high-quality development" in real estate, highlighting its role in improving residents' living standards and ensuring housing security [2][3] - The new model aims to balance market and guarantee measures, focusing on both new and existing housing supply to meet diverse needs [2][3] Group 2: Housing Security - The guidelines have shifted the focus from "effectively increasing" to "optimizing" the supply of affordable housing, indicating a potential adjustment in the scale, structure, and quality of housing supply [3][4] - Future housing supply will be tailored to local needs, with a focus on precision in meeting the demand for improved housing [3][4] Group 3: New Development Model - A new development model is essential for addressing challenges in the real estate sector, which includes improving the housing supply system and establishing a mechanism that links various factors such as people, housing, land, and finance [4][5] - The emphasis is on creating "good houses" that are safe, comfortable, green, and smart, with a commitment to enhancing the quality of both new and existing housing [6][5] Group 4: Integration with National Strategies - The real estate sector's high-quality development must align with five key national strategies, including urbanization, consumption expansion, risk prevention, ecological sustainability, and the industry's own transformation [7][8] - The focus on urbanization aims to provide affordable housing for migrant workers and young people, while the consumption strategy recognizes real estate as a key area for driving economic growth [7][8] Group 5: Risk Management - The guidelines stress the importance of addressing risks accumulated in the real estate sector, such as high household leverage and corporate debt, as a prerequisite for sustainable development [8] - The transition from rapid growth to high-quality development requires real estate companies to shift their focus from scale expansion to enhancing product quality and service [8]

Core Viewpoint - Vanke is undergoing dual transformations in financial security and organizational restructuring, aiming to establish a solid foundation amid favorable policy changes in the real estate sector [1] Financial Support: Major Shareholder's Strong Backing - Vanke has signed a framework agreement with its major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, to secure a borrowing limit of up to 22 billion yuan, specifically for repaying public market bond principal and interest, highlighting the urgency of debt resolution [2] - As of the announcement date, Shenzhen Metro Group has provided Vanke with a total of 20.373 billion yuan in unsecured loans, with actual withdrawals amounting to 19.71 billion yuan [2] - Despite the ongoing financial support, Vanke's debt pressure remains significant, with a net loss of 11.95 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, an increase from 9.8 billion yuan in the same period last year [2][3] - Vanke's net debt ratio stands at 90.4%, up 9.8 percentage points from the end of 2024, while its asset-liability ratio is 73.1%, down 0.6 percentage points [2] Organizational Restructuring: Farewell to the "Feudal" Model - In September, Vanke made significant organizational adjustments by abolishing its original development and operational headquarters and five regional companies, replacing them with 16 regional companies directly managed by the group headquarters [4] - This restructuring aims to eliminate resource waste and internal conflicts caused by the previous regional companies operating independently, focusing on extreme cost reduction and centralized resource management [4] - Despite the restructuring, Vanke's sales performance remains concerning, with a sales amount of 69.1 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 45.7% [4] Product Innovation: Aligning with High-Quality Development - Vanke continues to explore product innovation, exemplified by the "Ideal Land" project in Shanghai, which integrates residential, commercial, and community services, aiming to create a 10-15 minute living circle [4][5] - This project has achieved significant market recognition, ranking first in Shanghai's new residential sales in 2023, indicating a positive reception for innovative products [4] - Vanke's future focus will be on comprehensive residential development, property services, and rental apartments, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" suggestion to promote high-quality development in the real estate sector [5] Industry Transformation: Adapting to New Norms - The real estate industry is moving away from high leverage and rapid turnover, compelling leading companies like Vanke to undergo financial restructuring and organizational changes to adapt to evolving market conditions [6] - The ability to transform product innovation into a sustainable profit model will determine Vanke's success in navigating the current challenges and seizing opportunities presented by favorable policies [6]

Core Insights - The Shenzhen real estate market experienced a decline in both new and second-hand residential transactions in October, marking a cooling trend during the traditional peak season [1][3][6] - The decrease in transactions is attributed to several factors, including the impact of the National Day holiday, reduced availability of attractive properties, and a high base effect from last year's supportive policies [1][3][6] New Housing Market - In October, new housing transactions in Shenzhen totaled 3,352 units, a significant month-on-month decline of 29%, with residential sales at 2,651 units, down 14.1% [3][6] - Despite the drop in sales, new housing supply remained active, with 4,143 new units approved for sale, reflecting a 2.3% increase month-on-month, and residential supply surged by 37.9% [3][6] Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market also saw a decline, with 5,276 transactions recorded, a 6.8% decrease, and residential sales at 4,196 units, down 7.7% [5][6] - The decline was influenced by the holiday season and a reduction in buyer enthusiasm following a previously active September [5][6] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Despite the October downturn, the market showed signs of resilience, with second-hand housing transactions remaining above 5,500 units for eight consecutive months, indicating sustained demand [6][8] - The average transaction price for second-hand residential properties rose to 58,900 yuan per square meter, a 0.3% increase month-on-month, although the listing price slightly decreased by 1% [6][8] - The announcement of Shenzhen hosting the 2026 APEC meeting has sparked renewed interest in the real estate market, leading to a strong start in November with significant increases in both new and second-hand property transactions [7][8] Policy Environment - Recent policy signals from central and local governments indicate a focus on high-quality real estate development and risk management, with over 510 new policies introduced this year [8] - The market is expected to face pressure in the short term due to high base effects and increased supply, but a gradual recovery in transaction volumes is anticipated as year-end approaches [8]