Group 1 - As of the end of November, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,464 billion, an increase of $30 billion from the end of October, marking a rise of 0.09% and the highest level since December 2015 [1] - The National Medical Insurance Administration and the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security released the 2025 National Basic Medical Insurance Drug Directory, which emphasizes stricter management of the scope of medical insurance payments [1] - The 2025 National Medical Insurance Drug Directory successfully added 114 new drugs, with 50 being innovative drugs, achieving an overall success rate of 88%, significantly higher than the 76% in 2024 [4] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Legislative Council elections concluded with the selection of 90 members, marking an important election under the improved electoral system and the principle of "patriots governing Hong Kong" [4] - The Ministry of Finance is expected to maintain an expansionary fiscal policy in 2025, with a fiscal deficit rate not lower than 4% and an increase in government debt exceeding approximately 12 trillion yuan, potentially reaching between 13 trillion and 16 trillion yuan [3] - The upcoming week will see the issuance of five new stocks, including one from the main board and one from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [14]

受日元贬值、进口商品价格上涨等因素影响，近年日本物价持续上涨。日本总务省报告显示，截至今年 10月，日本去除生鲜食品后的核心消费价格指数已连续50个月同比上升。日本企业信用调查公司帝国数 据库日前公布的调查结果显示，2025年日本累计有20609种食品价格上涨，较去年的12520种大幅增加约 65%。 高市多次强调，物价对策是其内阁的最优先议题。此次大规模经济刺激计划的措施包括下调汽油和柴油 税、扩大冬季电费及燃气费补贴、提高个人所得税征税门槛等。但事实上，工资涨幅追不上物价涨幅， 实际工资持续下降，日本民众的消费体验最为真切。日本农林水产省11月中旬公布的数据显示，日本全 国超市销售的5公斤装大米平均价格涨至4316日元，又创历史新高。 记者发现，不少日本民众对经济刺激计划并不看好。正在超市大米货柜前犹豫不决的家庭主妇重田 说："补贴政策只能暂时缓解涨价之苦，长期来看，肯定会推动物价进一步上涨。" 市场预计高市内阁将继续无度扩张财政、大肆发债，因此，投资者对日本财政可持续性的质疑声日渐高 涨。近日，日本长期债券普遍遭到抛售，收益率接连突破历史高点。4日，作为长期利率指标的新发10 年期国债收益率一度升至1. ...

日本国债因加息预期重燃而暴跌。 今天日本债券市场上，3个月国债收益率暴涨超34%，作为长期利率指标的10年期新发国债收益率一度升至1.840%， 这 是自2008年6月以来的最高水平。 与此同时， 日经225指数高开低走，盘中跌幅超2%，跌超千点。 | < W | | | 日经225(N225) | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 12-01 14:30:26 | | | | | | | 49242.31 | | 昨收 | 50253.91 | 成交额 | 0 | | -1011.60 -2.01% | | 今井 | 50318.59 | 成交量 | 0 | | 上 涨 | 42 | 中 香 | 3 | 下 跌 | 180 | | 最高价 | 50366.74 | 市盈率 | 20.6 | 近20日 | -4.06% | | 最低价 | 49224.01 | 市净率 | 2.35 | 今年来 | 23.43% | | 分时 | 五日 | 日K | 高K | 月K | 日名 0 | | 叠加 51283.81 | | | | | 2.05% | | | ...

Group 1 - The Japanese government plans to expand short-term debt issuance to fund Prime Minister Kishi's economic stimulus plan, amid growing concerns over fiscal discipline [1][2] - A supplementary budget of 18.3 trillion yen (approximately 117 billion USD) has been approved, with 11.7 trillion yen to be raised through new debt issuance [1][2] - The revised debt issuance plan includes an additional 300 billion yen for 2-year and 5-year bonds, and 6.3 trillion yen for short-term treasury bills [1][2] Group 2 - The supplementary budget aims to address rising living costs for households, a key promise made by Prime Minister Kishi during her campaign [2] - The budget will also provide funding for increased defense spending, raising the GDP share of defense expenditure to 2% [2] - The revised debt issuance plan reflects the government's consideration to minimize market impact, as demand for ultra-long-term bonds continues to decline [2][3] Group 3 - The total bond issuance for the current fiscal year is projected to be 40.3 trillion yen, a decrease of approximately 4.3% from the previous year's 42.1 trillion yen [3] - Prime Minister Kishi aims to convey a responsible signal regarding her expansionary fiscal policy by emphasizing the reduction in bond issuance [3] - Additional funding for the economic stimulus plan will come from an unexpected tax revenue of 2.9 trillion yen, surplus funds from the previous fiscal year of 2.7 trillion yen, and non-tax revenue of 1 trillion yen [3]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, is set to introduce an economic stimulus plan funded by an additional budget, which is approximately 27% larger than the spending plan announced by former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba a year ago, highlighting her commitment to expansionary fiscal policy [1] Group 1: Economic Stimulus Plan - The proposed stimulus plan is expected to combine tax cuts and special account expenditures, resulting in general account expenditures reaching 17.7 trillion yen (approximately 112 billion USD) [1] - The additional budget size exceeds the 13.9 trillion yen proposed by Ishiba last year, indicating a significant increase in government spending [1] - The total value of the stimulus plan, including some already budgeted projects, is projected to reach 21.3 trillion yen [1] Group 2: Debt and Interest Rates - The increase in general account spending will necessitate a larger additional budget, which will involve more government bond issuance, further exacerbating Japan's already high debt burden [4] - Japan's total government debt is expected to reach 230% of its economic size this year, according to the International Monetary Fund [4] - As concerns over rising debt levels grow, Japanese government bond yields have increased, with the 20-year bond yield rising nearly 5 basis points to 2.856% [4] Group 3: Economic Context - The overall impact of the stimulus plan, including private sector spending, is expected to swell to approximately 42.8 trillion yen as Japan seeks to address multiple challenges, including persistent inflation [5] - Recent GDP data showed a 1.8% annualized decline in Japan's real GDP for the third quarter, marking the first negative growth in six quarters, which supports Takaichi's push for a large-scale stimulus plan [5]

来源：恒力期货 海南封关运作准备就绪 再有一个月，海南自贸港全岛将正式封关运作。11月18日，海南自贸港10个"二线口岸"同步展开合成演 练。"封关"到底怎么封？将对海南岛内外产生怎样的影响？封关倒计时30天，各项准备工作进展如何？ 首先，封关并非封岛。它是一项自由化便利化的政策制度，是要将海南岛全岛建成一个海关监管特殊区 域，基本特征是"'一线'放开、'二线'管住、岛内自由"。 （来源：恒力期货） 海关总署11月18日举行记者通报会，有关负责人介绍，目前，海南自由贸易港封关运作各项准备工作已 基本就绪。 从11月18日起，海南自贸港"二线口岸"启动了7x24小时热运行。 （来源：央视新闻） 市场信心不足 日本国债遭投资者抛售 当地时间19日，日本新发10年期国债收益率升至1.76%，为2008年6月以来新高。 由于市场担忧日本首相高市早苗提出的扩张性财政政策会导致财政状况进一步恶化，日本国债遭投资者 抛售，长期利率持续上升。 （来源：环球网） "一线"放开，就是将海南自贸港与我国关境外其他国家和地区之间作为"一线"，实施一系列自由便利进 出举措；"二线"管住，就是将海南自贸港与内地之间作为"二线"，针对"一 ...

近期，日本首相高市早苗发表有关台湾问题和历史认知上的错误言论，引发多方质疑和担忧，给日本经 济也带来诸多负面影响。 编辑 陈艳婷 日本东京股市两大股指19日继续承压下跌。日经225种股票平均价格指数收盘下跌0.34%，东京证券交 易所股票价格指数下跌0.17%。 据央视新闻消息，总台报道员当地时间11月19日获悉，日元对美元汇率跌破1美元兑换156日元。 （总台报道员 柏春洋） 当地时间19日，日本新发10年期国债收益率升至1.76%，为2008年6月以来新高。此外，在日本财务省 19日实施的20年期国债招标中，最高中标收益率达到2.833%，高于上一次的2.684%。这是自1999年7月 以来，时隔约26年的高水平。由于市场担忧日本首相高市早苗提出的扩张性财政政策会导致财政状况进 一步恶化，日本国债遭投资者抛售，长期利率持续上升。 ...

由于市场担忧日本首相高市早苗提出的扩张性财政政策会导致财政状况进一步恶化，日本国债遭投资者 抛售，长期利率持续上升。 此前一天，日本股债汇遭"三杀"。日本东京股市日经225指数18日收于48702.98点，大跌3.22%，跌幅为 今年4月初以来最大。同一天，日本国债也遭抛售，日元汇率下挫。 △日本央行总部（资料图） 当地时间19日，日本新发10年期国债收益率升至1.76%，为2008年6月以来新高。 来源：央视新闻客户端 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's 10-year government bond yield has risen to 1.76%, the highest level since June 2008, driven by concerns over the expansionary fiscal policy proposed by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, which may worsen the fiscal situation [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The rise in bond yields has led to a sell-off of Japanese government bonds by investors, resulting in a continuous increase in long-term interest rates [1] - On the previous day, Japan's stock, bond, and currency markets experienced significant declines, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping 3.22%, marking the largest decline since early April of this year [1] - The same day, the Japanese yen also depreciated as a result of the bond sell-off [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's Prime Minister Sanna Takashi plans to initiate a new growth strategy through the first economic stimulus plan, focusing on investments in 17 key sectors including semiconductors, critical minerals, and defense industries [1] Group 1: Key Investment Areas - The economic plan emphasizes investments in sectors deemed crucial for Japan's economic growth, including semiconductors, artificial intelligence, shipbuilding, defense industries, and critical minerals [2] - Additional areas covered by the plan include supply chain strengthening, nurturing startups, financial growth promotion, and helping companies increase wages [3] Group 2: Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination - Takashi has indicated a shift towards more expansionary fiscal policies, aiming for wage growth that exceeds inflation rates to address high consumer prices [4] - The expert group suggests that the government should enhance the financial foundation of international cooperation banks and Japan Trade Insurance to ensure the implementation of investment plans related to the Japan-U.S. tariff agreement [3][4] - The scale and nature of the economic plan, along with the supplementary budget for funding, will serve as indicators of Takashi's commitment to fulfilling campaign promises without alarming investors [4] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Concerns - Economists expect the scale of the new economic plan to exceed last year's, but excessive spending may raise concerns in the bond market, potentially increasing long-term yields and triggering strong inflation [5]