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宝城期货股指期货早报(2025年10月31日)-20251031
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 03:03
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index futures is wide - range oscillation, mainly due to the game between the fermentation rhythm of policy - favorable expectations and the profit - taking rhythm of funds. The mid - term view is upward, and the intraday view is oscillating strongly [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is oscillation, the mid - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the game between the profit - taking willingness of funds and the policy - favorable expectations [1] 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillating strongly, the mid - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is that the stock market fell with increased volume yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 4000 points, showing weak chasing - up sentiment and rising profit - taking willingness of funds. The marginal effect of easing external uncertainty risks decreased, and the policy - favorable expectations for technology stocks were gradually digested. There is still a possibility of technical correction in the stock index in the future, and the short - term trend is mainly wide - range oscillation [5]
黑色金属日报-20251029
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 12:36
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is expected to remain strong in the short - term, with attention on demand changes and domestic demand stimulus policies [2] - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [3] - The coke price is likely to be more prone to rise than fall [4] - The coking coal price is likely to be more prone to rise than fall [6] - The silicon manganese price follows the steel trend [7] - The ferrosilicon price follows the steel trend [8] Summary by Commodity Steel - The thread's apparent demand is warming up, production has increased, and inventory has decreased. The hot - rolled demand is rising, production is flat, and inventory has decreased. Iron - water production is high, and downstream capacity is insufficient. The negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain needs to be alleviated. Domestic demand is weak, and exports are high. The market may be strong in the short - term [2] Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments are high and stronger than last year, while domestic arrivals are below the annual average, and port inventory has slightly decreased. Demand: Iron - water production is falling, and steel mills' profitability is low. There is a production - cut pressure. The market may fluctuate at a high level [3] Coke - There is an expectation of a third price increase. Coking profit is average, and daily production has decreased slightly. Inventory is almost unchanged. The price may be more prone to rise than fall [4] Coking Coal - There is short - term production - cut pressure on iron - water due to environmental protection in Tangshan. Coal mine production has decreased slightly, and inventory has increased. The price may be more prone to rise than fall [6] Silicon Manganese - Iron - water production is high, and there may be a decline due to Tangshan's production restrictions. Production has slightly decreased, inventory has slightly decreased, and the price follows the steel trend [7] Ferrosilicon - Iron - water production is high, and there may be a decline due to Tangshan's production restrictions. Export demand is stable, and the price follows the steel trend [8]
黑色金属日报-20251027
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 12:01
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Manganese Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is expected to continue its short - term rebound, with attention on demand changes and domestic demand stimulus policies [1] - Iron ore is expected to mainly fluctuate at a high level [2] - Coke and coking coal prices may be more likely to rise than fall [3][5] - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices mainly follow the trend of steel [6][7] Summary by Related Categories Steel - The futures market rebounded significantly today. Thread apparent demand continued to pick up but was still weak year - on - year, production increased, and inventory continued to decline. Hot - rolled demand continued to rise, production was basically flat, and inventory declined [1] - Iron - making water production remained high overall, downstream carrying capacity was insufficient, and the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain needed to be alleviated [1] - From September data, real estate investment continued to decline significantly, infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates continued to fall, domestic demand was still weak overall, and steel exports remained high [1] - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade consultations and increased environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan improved market sentiment [1] Iron Ore - On the supply side, global shipments increased at a high level and were stronger than the same period last year. Brazilian shipments increased significantly, Australian shipments to China decreased, and domestic arrivals fell below the annual average [2] - On the demand side, iron - making water production gradually declined from a high level, the steel mill profitability rate shrank to a low level for the year, and there was still pressure for production cuts due to factors such as Tangshan's production restrictions [2] - Positive progress in the new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the convening of important domestic meetings led to some policy - friendly expectations and improved market sentiment [2] Coke - The price rose during the day. The second round of coke price increases was fully implemented. Coking coal prices rose faster, resulting in average coking profits and a slight decrease in daily production [3] - Coke inventory hardly changed. Downstream buyers made small - scale on - demand purchases and mainly consumed inventory, and traders' purchasing willingness was average [3] - Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, steel profit levels were average, and there was strong pressure to reduce raw material prices [3] Coking Coal - The price rose during the day. Tangshan carried out about 4 days of strict environmental protection - related production restrictions this week, and there was still some room for a decline in iron - making water production, but the impact duration was short [5] - Coking coal mine production decreased slightly, spot auction transactions improved, transaction prices rose, and terminal inventory increased [5] - Total coking coal inventory increased slightly month - on - month, production - end inventory decreased slightly, and production cuts due to self - inspections by coking coal mines increased slightly as safety inspections approached in major coal - producing areas [5] Manganese Silicon - The price fluctuated during the day. On the demand side, iron - making water production remained above 239, but Tangshan's production restrictions this week might lead to a further decline [6] - Weekly manganese silicon production decreased slightly, production remained at a high level, inventory decreased slightly, and both futures and spot demand were still good [6] - The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month - on - month, and spot ore was boosted by the futures market. Manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the contradiction was not prominent [6] Ferrosilicon - The price fluctuated during the day. On the demand side, iron - making water production remained above 239, but Tangshan's production restrictions this week might lead to a further decline [7] - Export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a small marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased slightly month - on - month, and secondary demand increased marginally. Overall demand was acceptable [7] - Ferrosilicon supply remained at a high level, and on - balance - sheet inventory continued to decline [7]
黑色金属日报-20251024
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 11:28
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆★ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is under pressure with weak domestic demand and fluctuating sentiment, while exports remain high. The iron ore market is expected to be volatile. Coke and coking coal prices are likely to be prone to rise due to certain expectations, despite pressure from steel mills' profit margins. Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets are affected by factors such as production, demand, and external trade frictions [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures prices declined. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel continued to recover but was still weak year - on - year, production increased, and inventory continued to fall. Hot - rolled coil demand continued to rise, production was basically flat, and inventory decreased. With the decline in steel mill profits, the negative feedback expectation in the industry chain still fermented repeatedly. Domestic demand was weak overall, and steel exports remained high. The market sentiment cooled, and the futures prices were under pressure [2] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures prices were weakly volatile. The global supply was strong, and the domestic arrival volume declined from a high level. Port inventory increased significantly this week. On the demand side, molten iron production declined from a high level, and the steel mill profitability rate continued to shrink. With the end of the peak season and the contraction of steel mill profits, there was still pressure for molten iron production cuts. The market had certain expectations for policy benefits, and sentiment improved. It is expected that the short - term trend will be mainly volatile [3] Coke - Coke prices rose today. Molten iron production remained high, and the steel - making profit level was average, suppressing the coke price increase rate. The second round of price increases for coking started. Coking profits were average, and daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory hardly changed. Downstream buyers purchased on a small - scale as needed and mainly consumed inventory, and traders' purchasing willingness was average. The carbon element supply was abundant, and steel mills had a strong sentiment of pressing down raw material prices. The coke futures prices were at a premium, and the price was likely to be prone to rise [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rose today. Recently, there was political turmoil in Mongolia, and the market was worried about the stability of Mongolian coal customs clearance volume. Coking coal mine production decreased slightly, spot auction transactions improved, and transaction prices increased. Terminal inventory increased. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly month - on - month, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. With safety inspections approaching in major coal - producing areas, production cuts due to self - inspections by coking coal mines increased slightly. The carbon element supply was abundant, and downstream molten iron production remained at a high level, providing support for raw materials. However, steel mills had a strong sentiment of pressing down raw material prices [6] Silicomanganese - Today's silicomanganese prices were in a downward oscillation. On the demand side, molten iron production remained high. Weekly silicomanganese production decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level. Silicomanganese inventory decreased slightly, and both futures and spot demand were still good. The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month - on - month, and spot ore prices were boosted by the futures market. Manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the contradiction was not prominent. The impact of external trade frictions should be continuously monitored [7] Ferrosilicon - Today's ferrosilicon prices were in a downward oscillation. On the demand side, molten iron production remained high. Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased slightly month - on - month, and secondary demand increased marginally. Overall demand was acceptable. Ferrosilicon supply remained at a high level, and on - balance inventory continued to decline. The impact of external trade frictions should be concerned [8]
宝城期货股指期货早报(2025年10月24日)-20251024
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 01:25
Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - There is no specific report industry investment rating provided in the content [1][5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of IH2512 is volatile, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is slightly bullish, with an overall view of wide - range volatility due to the game between capital profit - taking willingness and policy - driven positive expectations [1] - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is slightly bullish, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range volatility. In the short term, the stock index is expected to be mainly in wide - range volatility as the game between capital profit - taking willingness and policy - driven positive expectations will dominate the intraday stock index trend [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term is volatile, the medium - term is upward, the intraday is slightly bullish, with a wide - range volatility view, and the core logic is the game between capital profit - taking willingness and policy - driven positive expectations [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is slightly bullish, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range volatility. Yesterday, each stock index showed a trend of hitting the bottom and then rebounding. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1660.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 29.5 billion yuan from the previous day, indicating cautious market sentiment. The upcoming China - US economic and trade consultations from October 24th to 27th in Malaysia have reduced risk - aversion sentiment and improved market sentiment. Due to the significant increase in the valuation of some stocks and the marginal slowdown of the expected incremental policy benefits at the end of the year, there is still a need for capital to take profits. The game between capital profit - taking willingness and policy - driven positive expectations will dominate the intraday stock index trend [5]
黑色金属日报-20251023
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 11:23
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The steel market is affected by factors such as weak terminal demand, policy expectations, and cost support, with the price rebounding but limited by demand [1] - The iron ore market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, due to factors like supply and demand changes and policy expectations [2] - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall, supported by downstream demand and cost expectations [3][5] - The silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are driven by steel, with overall good demand and attention to external trade frictions [6][7] Summaries by Related Categories Steel - Today's steel futures rebounded with fluctuations. Thread demand recovered this week but was still weak year - on - year, production increased, and inventory decreased. Hot - rolled coil demand rose, production was flat, and inventory decreased. Iron - water production remained high, but downstream acceptance was insufficient. With the decline in steel mill profits, the negative feedback expectation in the industrial chain continued to ferment. From September data, domestic demand was weak, and steel exports remained high. The market rebounded due to policy expectations and cost increases, but the weak demand limited the rebound space [1] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures were volatile and strong. Supply was strong globally, domestic arrivals declined from a high level, and port inventory continued to accumulate. Demand - side iron - water production was gradually falling from a high level, and the pressure to cut production would increase in the future. With expectations of policy benefits, the market sentiment improved. It is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term [2] Coke - Coke prices rose during the day. The second round of price hikes in the coking industry started. Coking profits were average, and daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory continued to decline slightly. Downstream buyers purchased on demand, and traders' purchasing willingness was average. Overall, carbon supply was abundant, and the high - level iron - water production supported the price. The price was likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall [3] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rose during the day. Due to political unrest in Mongolia, the stability of Mongolian coal imports was a concern. Coking coal mine production increased slightly, spot auction transactions improved, and prices rose. Terminal inventory increased, and total inventory rose slightly. The price was likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall [5] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese prices rose with fluctuations during the day, driven by steel. Iron - water production remained high on the demand side. Weekly production declined slightly, inventory decreased slightly, and both futures and spot demand were good. Manganese ore prices increased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly [6] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices rose with fluctuations during the day, driven by steel. Iron - water production remained high on the demand side. Export demand was about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. Magnesium production increased slightly, and overall demand was okay. Supply remained high, and inventory continued to decline [7]
黑色金属日报-20251022
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-10-22 11:16
Report Industry Investment Ratings - The operation ratings for various products are as follows: Thread steel, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and ferrosilicon are all rated ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market has rebounded after adjustment, but the rhythm remains volatile, influenced by factors such as Sino-US relations and domestic demand - stimulating policies [2] - The short - term trend of iron ore is expected to be a strong - side oscillation [3] - The prices of coke and coking coal are likely to be more prone to rising than falling [4][5] - The prices of silicon manganese and ferrosilicon are moving up in an oscillatory manner, and attention should be paid to external trade frictions [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The demand for thread steel has rebounded month - on - month but remains weak year - on - year, with production declining and inventory decreasing; the demand for hot - rolled coil has also increased, production has slightly decreased, and the inventory accumulation has slowed down [2] - Iron - making production has slightly decreased but remains high, and downstream carrying capacity is insufficient. The negative feedback expectation in the industrial chain persists [2] - In September, real estate investment continued to decline significantly, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to fall. Domestic demand is weak, while steel exports remain high [2] Iron Ore - On the supply side, global shipments have increased month - on - month and are stronger than the same period last year, domestic arrivals have dropped from a high level, and port inventories have increased significantly [3] - On the demand side, iron - making production is gradually falling from a high level, and the pressure of production reduction in the future is increasing [3] - There are concerns about external trade frictions and negative feedback in the industrial chain, but there are also expectations for policy benefits [3] Coke - The second round of price increases for coking has started. Coking profits are average, and daily production has slightly decreased [4] - Coke inventories continue to decline slightly. Downstream purchases are on a small - scale and as needed, and traders' purchasing willingness is average [4] - Carbon element supply is abundant, and high - level iron - making production provides support. The support near the previous low is relatively solid [4] Coking Coal - The output of coking coal mines has slightly increased, spot auction transactions have improved, and transaction prices have mostly risen. Terminal inventories have increased [5] - Total coking coal inventories have slightly increased month - on - month, and production - end inventories have slightly decreased. Post - holiday production has not increased significantly [5] - Carbon element supply is abundant, and high - level iron - making production provides support. The support near the previous low is relatively solid [5] Silicon Manganese - Attention is paid to the tender pricing news of a large steel mill in the north. The current inquiry price is 5,800 yuan/ton, a 200 - yuan/ton decrease from the September transaction price [6] - Iron - making production remains high on the demand side. Weekly silicon manganese production has slightly decreased but remains at a high level, and inventories have slightly decreased [6] - Manganese ore shipping quotes have slightly increased month - on - month, and spot ores have been boosted by the trading floor. Manganese ore inventories have slightly decreased, and contradictions are not prominent [6] Ferrosilicon - Attention is paid to steel tender - related news. Iron - making production remains high on the demand side [7] - Export demand remains at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has slightly increased month - on - month, and secondary demand has slightly increased marginally [7] - Ferrosilicon supply remains at a high level, and on - balance - sheet inventories are continuously decreasing [7]
宝城期货股指期货早报(2025年10月22日)-20251022
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-22 01:29
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of the stock index futures is wide - range fluctuation. In the short - term, it is expected to maintain wide - range fluctuation, with the intraday view being oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view being upward [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2512 variety, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is wide - range fluctuation. The core logic is the game between the short - term capital's profit - taking willingness and the medium - and long - term policy favorable expectations [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range fluctuation. The core logic is that the stock indexes oscillated and rose yesterday. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1892.7 billion yuan, an increase of 141.4 billion yuan from the previous day. The inflation and credit data in September were weak, with the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still existing, strengthening the expectation of policies to stabilize demand and providing medium - and long - term support for the stock index. The 20th Fourth Plenary Session was held from Monday to Wednesday this week, increasing the expectation of policy benefits. Coupled with the marginal mitigation of overseas tariff risks, market sentiment improved. The subsequent market trend depends on the rhythm change of the game between profit - taking sentiment and policy favorable expectations [5].
国投期货晨会早报-20251021
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-10-21 05:58
Oil Market - International oil prices declined, with Brent crude falling by 0.65%. Since September, global oil inventory accumulation has accelerated, reaching a 1.5% increase in the fourth quarter. The mid-term outlook for the oil market remains under pressure due to ongoing US-China trade tensions, despite upward revisions in earnings forecasts by three major institutions for the next two years [2] - Geopolitical risks have eased following a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, leading to a reduction in oil market risk premiums. However, with oil prices nearing the lows seen during the trade war in April, the short-term downward momentum is weakening, suggesting a potential shift to a weak consolidation phase [2] Precious Metals - Precious metals rebounded, with market sentiment influenced by ongoing negotiations regarding US-China trade, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the US government shutdown. The long-term upward trend for gold and silver remains intact, but short-term volatility risks have increased, suggesting a cautious approach to positions [3] Base Metals - Copper prices experienced fluctuations, supported by easing tariffs under Trump's policies and the potential end of the US government shutdown. However, domestic supply and demand conditions are mixed, with copper inventories rising. The outlook suggests high copper prices may lead to continued volatility [4] - Aluminum prices remained stable, with consumption levels since August showing little change year-on-year. Inventory levels have been neutral, indicating limited fundamental drivers for price movements [5] - The aluminum alloy market is facing tight scrap supply and rising costs due to tax policy adjustments, although high inventory levels are present [6] - Alumina production capacity is at historical highs, with rising inventories and evident oversupply. The average cost in September was around 3000 yuan, nearing levels that could trigger production cuts [7] - Zinc inventories increased, confirming a supply surplus. Despite short-term export opportunities, actual shipments remain limited, and zinc prices are under pressure [8] Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices are fluctuating, with rebar demand showing a significant month-on-month increase, although year-on-year figures remain weak. Production continues to decline, and inventory levels are decreasing [15] - Iron ore prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with global shipments increasing compared to last year. Domestic demand is expected to decrease as the peak season ends, leading to potential production cuts [16] Other Commodities - The LPG market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a slight increase in supply. Chemical demand is rising, but overall demand remains subdued [23] - The urea market is facing a loose supply-demand balance, with prices under pressure due to high inventories and limited export policies [24] - The cotton market is seeing stable prices amid weak demand, with ongoing attention to US-China trade relations [42] - The sugar market is under pressure from high production levels in Brazil, India, and Thailand, leading to a cautious outlook for prices [43]
供应预期支撑,焦煤偏强震荡:煤焦日报-20251020
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-20 09:29
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Coke**: As of the week ending October 17, the combined daily average coke production of coking plants and steel mills was 1.1123 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 12,700 tons. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2.4095 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5,900 tons. The coke inventories of upstream and downstream industries decreased. The inventory of all independent coking plants was 572,900 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 65,500 tons, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.3944 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 113,800 tons. Overall, both supply and demand of coke decreased, with a more significant reduction on the supply side, and the overall industrial chain inventory decreased. The fundamentals are relatively neutral, and the upward driving force mainly comes from the supply support of coking coal at the cost end and the expected policy benefits [6][34]. - **Coking Coal**: As of the week ending October 17, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 779,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 27,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 6,000 tons. At the import end, the Ganqimaodu Port resumed operation on October 8, with the daily traffic volume returning to around 1,100 - 1,300 vehicles. At the demand end, the combined daily average coke production of sample coking plants and steel mills was 1.1123 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 12,700 tons. In terms of inventory, downstream coking plants and steel mills actively purchased this week, and the coking coal inventory was transferred downstream. As of the week ending October 17, the coking coal inventory of all independent coking plants was 9.9737 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 383,100 tons, and the coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 7.8832 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 71,900 tons. Overall, the fundamentals of coking coal lack support, but recent weather and anti - involution impacts in the main production areas have caused disturbances, driving the main coking coal futures contract to maintain a relatively strong volatile operation [7][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China began in Beijing on the morning of the 20th. General Secretary Xi Jinping delivered a work report on behalf of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee and explained the "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development (Discussion Draft)" to the plenary session [9]. - On October 20, the price of coking coal in the Jinzhong market remained stable. The ex - factory price of medium - sulfur main coking clean coal with specifications A10.5, S1.3, V25, G80, CSR65, and petrographic 0.15 was 1,300 yuan/ton including tax in cash [10]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Quasi - First - Grade FOB) | 1,520 | 0.00% | 3.40% | - 10.06% | - 21.65% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Quasi - First - Grade Ex - Warehouse) | 1,460 | 1.39% | 0.00% | - 9.88% | - 20.65% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal) | 1,260 | - 1.56% | - 1.56% | 6.78% | - 20.25% | | Coking Coal (Australian - Produced in Jingtang Port) | 1,540 | 1.32% | - 4.35% | 3.36% | - 16.76% | | Coking Coal (Shanxi - Produced in Jingtang Port) | 1,660 | 0.00% | - 2.92% | 8.50% | - 14.87% | [11] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1,710.0 | 1.63 | 1,738.0 | 1,685.0 | 26,668 | 6,177 | 40,175 | - 560 | | Coking Coal | - | 1,216.0 | 2.66 | 1,238.5 | 1,187.0 | 1,072,864 | 202,940 | 618,806 | 12,271 | [14] 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port coke total inventory, and total coke inventory over the years [15][16][17][18]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts show the mine - mouth coking coal inventory, port coking coal inventory, 247 sample steel mill coking coal inventory, and all independent coking plant coking coal inventory over the years [21][24][26][31]. - **Other Charts**: Charts show domestic steel mill production (including blast furnace operating rate and steel mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire rod and screw steel procurement volume, coal washing plant production (including clean coal inventory and operating rate), and coking plant operating conditions (including coke production profit and coke oven capacity utilization rate) [28][29][32][33]. 3.5后市研判 - The analysis of coke and coking coal is the same as the core viewpoints, including production, demand, inventory, and overall situation analysis [34][35].