证券研究报告 | 2025年10月31日 中国石油（601857.SH） 优于大市 天然气板块盈利大幅改善，第三季度归母净利润 423 亿元 2025 年单三季度归母净利润 423 亿元，业绩超预期。2025 年前三季度公司 实现营收 2.17 万亿元（同比-3.9%），主要由于原油、成品油价格下降；实 现归母净利润 1262.8 亿元（同比-4.9%），实现扣非归母净利润 1268.7 亿 元（同比-6.4%）。2025 年第三季度公司实现营收 7191.6 亿元（同比+2.3%， 环比+3.2%），实现归母净利润 422.9 亿元（同比-3.9%，环比+13.7%），实 现扣非归母净利润 427.6 亿元（同比-2.0%，环比+13.9%），业绩超预期。 原油产量稳中有升，加快新能源业务发展。2025 年前三季度公司油气与新能 源板块实现经营利润 1251.0 亿元（同比-13.3%），主要由于原油销售价格 下降，实现油气当量产量 1377.2 百万桶油当量（同比+2.6%），其中原油产 量 714.3 百万桶（同比+0.8%），原油平均实现价格 65.6 美元/桶（同比 -14.7%），油气单位操作成本 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Power Construction Corporation (China Power) has secured significant overseas contracts, including a recent contract worth approximately 6.568 billion yuan for a complex hospital project in Peru, contributing to a total of 18.287 billion yuan in overseas orders for October alone [1][4]. Group 1: Recent Contracts - On October 29, China Power announced a contract with the Peruvian National Health Investment Plan Authority for the design and construction of a high-complexity hospital in the Piura region, valued at approximately 6.568 billion yuan [2]. - Earlier in October, China Power signed a contract for solar photovoltaic projects in Saudi Arabia, totaling approximately 11.719 billion yuan [4]. - The company has also signed multiple significant overseas contracts since 2025, including a 5.963 billion yuan wind power project in Egypt and a 5.063 billion yuan mining project in Guinea [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - From January to September 2025, China Power signed 6,306 new projects with a total contract value of 904.527 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.04% [7]. - The overseas contract value during the same period reached 213.754 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.45% [7]. - The company has shown consistent growth in new contract values over the past three years, with 2022, 2023, and 2024 recording new contract amounts of 1.01 trillion yuan, 1.14 trillion yuan, and 1.27 trillion yuan respectively [6][7]. Group 3: Asset and Revenue Growth - As of mid-2025, China Power's total assets reached 1.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.85% compared to the same period in 2024 [7]. - The company's revenue has steadily grown, with 2024 revenue reaching 633.7 billion yuan, a significant increase from 50.62 billion yuan in 2007 [7]. - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue was 292.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.66% [7]. Group 4: Research and Development - China Power has been increasing its investment in research and development, with R&D expenses surpassing 20 billion yuan for the first time in 2022, reaching 20.8 billion yuan, and continuing to grow in subsequent years [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - China Petroleum (601857.SH) reported a slight increase in revenue for Q3 2025, but a decline in net profit, indicating mixed performance in its financial results [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 2025 reached 719.157 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 42.286 billion yuan, down 3.9% year-on-year [1] - Net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 42.758 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.2% year-on-year [1] Production and Operations - Crude oil production for the first three quarters was 714 million barrels, an increase of 0.8% year-on-year [1] - Domestic crude oil production was 591 million barrels, up 1.0% year-on-year, while overseas production was 123 million barrels, showing slight growth [1] - Marketable natural gas production reached 39.8 trillion cubic feet, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [1] - Domestic marketable natural gas production was 38.6 trillion cubic feet, up 5.2% year-on-year [1] - Total oil and gas equivalent production was 1.377 billion barrels, a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [1] Cost Management and Profitability - The unit operating cost for oil and gas was 10.79 USD per barrel, a decrease of 6.1% year-on-year [1] - The combined operating profit from oil, gas, and renewable energy businesses was 125.103 billion yuan [1] Renewable Energy Development - Cumulative power generation from wind and solar projects reached 5.79 billion kilowatt-hours, representing a significant year-on-year increase of 72.2% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "Big Three" oil companies in China reported a slight decline in net profits for the third quarter due to falling international oil prices, with China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) leading in profits [2][6]. Group 1: China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) - For the first three quarters of 2025, CNPC achieved operating revenue of 21,692.56 billion RMB, a decrease of 3.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1,262.94 billion RMB, down 4.9% [4]. - In Q3 2025, CNPC's operating revenue was 7,191.57 billion RMB, up 2.3% year-on-year, while net profit was 422.87 billion RMB, down 3.9% year-on-year but up 13.7% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a clear improvement in operations [4][6]. - CNPC's traditional oil business showed stability, with crude oil production of 714 million barrels, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and natural gas production of 3.98 trillion cubic feet, up 4.6% [7]. - The renewable energy sector saw significant growth, with cumulative power generation from wind and solar projects reaching 5.79 billion kWh, a 72.2% increase [7]. - The company maintained cost control, with unit operating costs for oil and gas at 10.79 USD/barrel, down 6.1% year-on-year [7]. Group 2: China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) - CNOOC reported operating revenue of 3,125.03 billion RMB for the first three quarters, a decrease of 4.15%, and a net profit of 1,019.71 billion RMB, down 12.59% [10]. - In Q3 2025, CNOOC's operating revenue was 1,048.95 billion RMB, up 5.68% year-on-year, while net profit was 324.38 billion RMB, down 12.16% [10]. - The average selling price of oil for CNOOC fell by 13.6% to 68.92 USD/barrel, impacting oil and gas sales revenue, which decreased by 5.9% to 2,554.8 billion RMB [10]. - CNOOC's net oil and gas production increased by 6.7% year-on-year, supported by contributions from new projects [10][11]. Group 3: China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) - Sinopec reported operating revenue of 7,044 billion RMB for Q3 2025, down 10.9%, and a net profit of 85.01 billion RMB, down 0.5% [13]. - For the first three quarters, Sinopec's operating revenue was 21,134.41 billion RMB, a decrease of 10.7%, and net profit was 299.84 billion RMB, down 32.2% [13]. - The chemical segment faced significant losses, with an EBIT loss of 8.223 billion RMB, primarily due to low product prices from increased domestic chemical capacity [16]. - Despite challenges, the exploration and development segment remained a bright spot, generating 38.085 billion RMB in EBIT [16].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [5][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 26.98 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 12.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 450 million yuan, down 15.1% year-on-year. The decline in performance was primarily due to lower coal prices and reduced sales volume [3][5]. - The company is actively expanding its renewable energy business, participating in various industry standards and projects, including a 200MW/400MWh shared energy storage project in Yunnan [4][5]. - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downward due to low coal prices, with projected revenues of 40.55 billion yuan, 41.78 billion yuan, and 43.20 billion yuan respectively, and net profits of 720 million yuan, 790 million yuan, and 850 million yuan [5][7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The latest closing price is 14.29 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 8 billion yuan. The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 44.0% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.83 [2]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 8.56 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 22.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.0%. The net profit for the same period was 150 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 13.3% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.7% [3][5]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin and net margin for the first three quarters of 2025 were 5.0% and 2.1%, respectively, showing slight improvements year-on-year. However, the overall expense ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points, which slightly impacted profitability [3]. Future Projections - The company’s revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards due to the impact of low coal prices. The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.29 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.05 [5][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 19.45 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 6.9% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.67 billion yuan, down 34.7% year-on-year [6][12]. - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 6.11 billion yuan, a decline of 13.7% year-on-year and 2.8% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 290 million yuan, down 65.7% year-on-year and 58.6% quarter-on-quarter [6][12]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.0 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders [6][12]. - The titanium dioxide industry is under pressure domestically, but the company is expected to stand out in international markets [12]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue and net profit have shown significant declines in 2025, with Q3 net profit dropping by 65.7% year-on-year [6][12]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its core competitiveness and expanding its global presence through strategic acquisitions [12]. - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, having distributed over 19.3 billion yuan since its listing [12]. Industry Context - The titanium dioxide industry is experiencing an imbalance in supply and demand, with prices continuing to decline [12]. - The company is actively pursuing an overseas expansion strategy to mitigate the impact of domestic market challenges, including anti-dumping investigations from various countries [12]. - The company is also investing in new energy sectors, which are expected to contribute positively to its profitability in the future [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting significant profit growth in the coming years [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.19 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing an 8.2% year-on-year increase, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 490 million yuan, up 20.3% year-on-year [2]. - The data center business has emerged as a core growth driver, with revenue from this segment increasing by 337.5% year-on-year [3]. - The company has successfully transitioned from a single transformer supplier to a comprehensive power solution provider, which is expected to further enhance growth potential [3]. - The company has shown strong cost control and improved profitability, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 190 million yuan, a significant improvement from a negative 90 million yuan in the same period last year [4]. Revenue and Profitability - Domestic revenue reached 3.56 billion yuan, growing by 4.8% year-on-year, while overseas revenue was 1.59 billion yuan, up 16.4% [3]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 26.1%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [2][4]. - The company expects net profits to grow to 750 million yuan, 990 million yuan, and 1.28 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 31%, 31%, and 29% [5]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of 40.5% in 2023, 3.5% in 2024, and 22.05% in 2025 [9]. - The projected diluted earnings per share for 2025 is 1.64 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 41.16 [9]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 14.55% in 2025, increasing to 18.91% by 2027 [9].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 10.11 billion yuan in Q3, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.82%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.19% to 465 million yuan [2][3] - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue reached 27.07 billion yuan, up 2.28%, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 14.61% to 1.22 billion yuan [2][3] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue: 10.11 billion yuan, up 2.82% year-on-year [2][3] - Q3 net profit: 465 million yuan, down 8.19% year-on-year [2][3] - Q3 non-recurring net profit: 414 million yuan, down 15.86% year-on-year [2][3] - Cash flow from operating activities: 2.95 billion yuan [3] - Basic and diluted earnings per share: 0.25 yuan, down 16.67% [3] - Return on equity: 2.40%, down 0.34% [3] - Total assets as of Q3: 51.89 billion yuan, up 12.78% from the end of the previous year [3] - Shareholder equity: 21.31 billion yuan, up 13.19% from the end of the previous year [3] Business Segment Performance - The company's new energy business generated approximately 7.52 billion yuan in sales, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 22.08% [2][3] - The company is recognized as one of the few suppliers in the upstream supply chain of the new energy vehicle sector, providing a range of products including PCBs, display screens, and functional structural components [4] Strategic Developments - The company is planning to issue shares overseas (H-shares) and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is seen as a significant step to expand into international markets and connect with global capital [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance is gradually stabilizing, with long-term dividend value becoming prominent. The third quarter results show a slight improvement in performance, primarily due to the recovery in coal prices and enhanced profitability in the combined heat and power sector [6][4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 26,979 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.84%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 453 million yuan, down 15.10% year-on-year. The third quarter alone saw revenues of 85,570 million yuan and a net profit of 15 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 22.39% and 13.32% respectively [6][5] - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2025 was 1,781 million yuan, a significant increase compared to -352 million yuan in the same period of 2024 [6] - The company has committed to a minimum dividend payout ratio of 40%, with an estimated dividend yield of 5.01% for 2025, assuming the acquisition of Nantai Lake Power Technology is completed [6][5] Business Segments - The combined heat and power business is showing steady growth, with the establishment of the seventh combined heat and power company, which is expected to enhance revenue and profit contributions [6] - The company sold 4,259,500 tons of steam, a slight increase of 0.24% year-on-year, while the total power supply was 70,398.14 million kWh, a decrease of 3.60% year-on-year [6] Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for the company is as follows: 2025 estimated net profit of 940 million yuan, 2026 estimated net profit of 1,058 million yuan, and 2027 estimated net profit of 1,113 million yuan. The price-to-earnings ratio for 2025-2027 is projected to be 9, 8, and 7 times respectively [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Dongni Electronics (603595) reported a modest growth in revenue and a significant improvement in net profit for the third quarter of 2025, indicating a positive trend in its financial performance [1] Financial Performance - The company's third-quarter revenue reached 618 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.51% [1] - For the first three quarters, total revenue amounted to 1.457 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.5% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the third quarter was 26.607 million yuan, showing an increase of 11.1% year-on-year [1] - In the first three quarters, the net profit was reported at -146.051 million yuan, indicating a turnaround in profitability [1] Factors Influencing Performance - The increase in revenue was primarily driven by higher gross margins in the new energy business [1] - A reduction in inventory impairment losses contributed to decreased asset impairment [1] - The total amount of interest-bearing liabilities decreased, leading to lower financial expenses [1] - A decline in material input costs, along with reduced depreciation and amortization, resulted in lower R&D expenses [1]