Core Viewpoint - The long-term market trend has begun, and Hong Kong stocks are expected to lead the market [1] Group 1 - The report indicates that the long-term bullish trend in the market has been established, suggesting a positive outlook for investors [1] - Hong Kong stocks are anticipated to outperform other markets, positioning them as a key driver for future market movements [1] - The analysis highlights the potential for significant returns in the Hong Kong stock market, driven by favorable economic conditions and investor sentiment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a slight decline, but the Southbound Technology ETF (Southern, 159269) saw a net subscription of 12 million shares, indicating continued capital inflow despite the market downturn [1] Group 1: Market Trends - As of August 7, the cumulative net inflow of Southbound funds reached 894.528 billion HKD, significantly surpassing the total net buying amount for the entire previous year [1] - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data indicated signs of economic slowdown, reinforcing market expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to "stabilize growth," which has improved global risk appetite [1] - Economists predict that the historic influx of Northern funds into the South will suggest further highs for the Hong Kong stock market in the second half of the year, especially with potential synchronized interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Tencent, the largest weighted stock in the Southbound Technology ETF, is set to disclose its mid-2025 performance on August 13, with institutions generally optimistic about its second-quarter results [1] - The latest Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for the index tracked by the Southbound Technology ETF is 23.84 times, which is at the 40.31% historical percentile over the past decade [1] Group 3: Economic Outlook - According to Founder Securities, the driving factors behind the recent strength in the Hong Kong stock market have not reversed, with strong resilience in the underlying economy and the current phase nearing the end of a profit decline cycle [1] - A series of favorable policies have been introduced, contributing to a friendly liquidity environment, which is expected to further accelerate capital inflow into the Hong Kong stock market, enhancing the market outlook [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a slight decline, but the Southbound Technology ETF (159269) saw a net subscription of 12 million units, with 7 out of the last 10 trading days showing net inflows [1] - As of August 7, Southbound funds have recorded a cumulative net inflow of 894.528 billion HKD this year, significantly surpassing the total net buying amount for the entire previous year [2] - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data indicated signs of economic slowdown, reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates to "stabilize growth," which has improved global risk appetite [2] Group 2 - Economist Hong Hao noted that the historic influx of Northbound capital in the first half of the year suggests that the Hong Kong stock market may reach new highs in the second half, especially with potential synchronized interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to increased liquidity [2] - The largest holding in the Southbound Technology ETF, Tencent, is set to announce its mid-2025 earnings on August 13, with institutions generally optimistic about its second-quarter performance [2] - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the index tracked by the Southbound Technology ETF is 23.84, which is at the 40.31% historical percentile over the past decade [2] Group 3 - According to Founder Securities, the factors driving the recent strength in the Hong Kong stock market have not reversed, with strong economic fundamentals in China and the current phase being the end of a profit downturn, alongside a series of favorable policies leading to continued acceleration of Southbound capital inflows [2] - The overall liquidity environment remains friendly, with expectations for further inflows to support the positive momentum in the Hong Kong stock market [2]

| 代码 | 名称 | | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 800000 | 恒生指数 | (0) | 24994.14 | +168.48 | 0.68% | | 800100 | 国企指数 | | 9040.20 | +53.73 | 0.60% | | 800700 | 恒生科技指数 | | 5585.50 | +46.67 | 0.84% | 盘面上，大型科技股普遍飘红，美团涨近3%，京东涨超2%，阿里巴巴、小米涨超1%。 雅鲁藏布江水电工程开工，涉1.2万亿投资，建材水泥股、钢铁股、风电股、大基建股等相关板块全天表现强势，其中，尤其是东方电气盘中一 度飙升超700%最终收涨65.2%，华新水泥飙涨85.6%，重庆钢铁大涨25.5%，山水水泥涨超23%，中铝国际、中国中铁、中国建筑国际等皆走强。 中资券商股、石油股、黄金股、煤炭股、内房股、海运股、家电股、军工股纷纷上涨。 今日，港股三大指数呈现V型走势，国企指数、恒生科技指数午后一度转跌，最终分别收涨0.6%及0.84%，恒生指数涨0.68%盘中一度站上25000 点 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly the Hang Seng Technology Index, experienced a decline, with the index dropping over 1% in the afternoon session on July 9 [1] - The largest ETF tracking the Hang Seng Technology Index (513180) also saw a slight decrease, with major holdings like Hua Hong, NetEase, Alibaba, Bilibili, Kuaishou, and Xpeng Motors showing significant declines [1] - According to a recent report by Founder Securities, the current upward trend in the Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue, driven by strong economic fundamentals and a series of favorable policies [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) is currently at a relatively low valuation, with a latest P/E ratio of 20.10, which is below 91% of the time since the index was launched on July 27, 2020 [1] - Positive sentiment and ample liquidity are seen as crucial foundations for the next phase of growth in the Hong Kong technology sector, with expectations for thematic catalysts to drive performance [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) has seen significant capital inflows, with net inflows of 755.7 million yuan on July 3 and 682 million yuan on July 4, totaling over 2.4 billion yuan in the last 20 trading days, reaching a new high of 29.488 billion yuan [2]

Group 1 - FWD Group, a life insurance company founded by Li Zeqiang, experienced a weak debut in the dark market, with a drop of 6.6% and a share price of HKD 38, raising approximately HKD 29.534 billion in net proceeds from the global offering [1] - The market's mixed reception of FWD Group's valuation reflects short-term concerns despite its long-term growth potential backed by Li Zeqiang [1] Group 2 - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing announced the appointment of Fan Wenchao as Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income and Currency Products, and Ni Jiyue as Managing Director and Head of OTC Clearing Platform [2] - The new management aims to enhance the fixed income and currency product ecosystem and improve services to meet global investor needs, thereby promoting the long-term development of Hong Kong's fixed income market [2] Group 3 - Rongda Technology is facing a lawsuit from Xiamen Top Electronics for alleged trade secret infringement, with a claim for damages totaling 200 million yuan [3] - This legal challenge may pressure Rongda Technology's reputation and stock price, particularly as a newly listed company, impacting investor confidence [3] Group 4 - Yihai International announced that independent non-executive director Peng Long is under investigation for serious violations of discipline and law [4] - This situation poses a challenge to Yihai International's corporate image and may affect investor confidence, highlighting the importance of corporate governance and compliance [4] Group 5 - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23916.06, down 0.64%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index and the National Enterprises Index also saw declines of 0.33% and 0.45%, respectively [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is currently in a consolidation phase, having largely completed the macroeconomic impact recovery process, with the Hang Seng Index approaching its March high due to themes in new consumption and pharmaceuticals [1][2] Market Conditions - The recent rise in the Hong Kong stock market is supported by a significant reduction in tariff uncertainties and a stabilization of the RMB exchange rate, alongside ample liquidity in the Hong Kong dollar market [2][3] - Despite the favorable liquidity environment, the Hang Seng Technology Index remains in a sideways trend, indicating that strong upward catalysts are still needed for the technology sector [2] Investment Opportunities - The current market conditions present a favorable window for investors, particularly as the technology sector has seen a release of valuation pressure, transitioning from a structural market to a broader rally [3] - The improvement in risk sentiment and liquidity provides a necessary foundation for the next phase of technology stock rallies, with the potential for significant upward movement as the narrative themes evolve [3]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.62%, gaining 148 points to close at 24,220 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.27%. The early trading volume in Hong Kong was HKD 135.2 billion [1]. Copper Industry - Recent strong performance in copper prices has led institutions to believe that prices are likely to rise further. Copper mining stocks generally increased, with China Nonferrous Mining (01258) up by 2%, Zijin Mining (601899) (02899) up by 2.99%, and Jiangxi Copper (600362) (00358) up by 2.36% [1]. Cobalt Market - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) (03993) saw a 4.14% increase, reaching a new high, as Bank of America noted that soaring cobalt prices offset the impact of extended cobalt export bans [2]. Gold Sector - Most gold stocks rose, with Shandong Gold (600547) (01787) increasing by 6.24% to reach a new peak, and Zijin Mining (02899) rising over 2.99% [3]. Banking Sector - Chinese banks' stocks experienced broad gains in early trading, with institutions indicating that H-shares are more attractive compared to A-shares. Notable increases included Minsheng Bank (600016) (01988) up by 4.72%, CITIC Bank (601998) (00998) up by 2.54%, and China Construction Bank (601939) (00939) up by 3.16% [3]. Photovoltaic Industry - The news of production cuts in photovoltaic glass has been confirmed, leading to expectations of accelerated elimination of outdated capacity in the industry. Stocks in this sector rose significantly, with Fuyao Glass (601865) (06865) up by 8.4% and Xinyi Solar (00968) up by 7.63% [3]. Beverage Sector - Nayuki's Tea (02150) surged over 35%, with a continuous two-month double-digit growth in order volume, indicating significant growth potential [4]. Food Industry - Guoquan (02517) rose over 18% after announcing plans to invest HKD 490 million in a food production base in Hainan, with institutions noting a recovery in same-store sales [5]. Jewelry Sector - Luk Fook Holdings (00590) increased by 3.99%, with institutions stating that the operational performance for the second half of the fiscal year 2025 exceeded expectations, and the company plans to resume store expansion [6]. Biotechnology Sector - JACOB-23E73 completed its first patient dosing in the U.S. for Phase I/IIa clinical trials, leading to a rise of over 7% in shares of JACOB (01167) [7]. Automotive Sector - Li Auto-W (02015) fell by 2.4%, with June delivery volumes down 24% year-on-year, following a previous downward revision of second-quarter guidance [8].

Group 1 - The main viewpoint indicates that the market is experiencing a net outflow of capital, with a total of 117.607 billion yuan in the last two weeks, while the coal industry is seeing net inflows [2] - The financing and securities lending data shows a current balance of 1.821325 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.66% from the previous period, with the financing balance at 1.808988 trillion yuan and the securities lending balance at 12.337 billion yuan [2] - The market has seen more declining stocks than rising ones in the last two weeks, with the top three sectors in terms of gains being non-ferrous metals, oil and petrochemicals, and telecommunications, while the sectors with the largest declines are food and beverage, household appliances, and commercial building materials [2] Group 2 - The overall strength analysis score for all A-shares is 5.39, indicating a neutral zone, with the CSI 300 score at 5.43, the ChiNext score at 5.60, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board score at 5.42 [2] - The article notes that due to escalating geopolitical conflicts, global risk appetite is declining, leading to a drop in the Shanghai Composite Index below the 5-day moving average, with market focus shifting towards defensive sectors [3] - It is suggested that the A-share market is likely to continue a structural trend in the second half of the year, with a need to monitor whether capital returns to previous hot sectors, while mid-to-long-term attention should be given to technology and Hong Kong stock market trends [3]

Group 1 - The current market sentiment is largely pessimistic, with most sectors aside from banks showing no significant gains, indicating a lack of profit effect [1][3] - The market is expected to experience a rapid decline followed by a rebound, which is seen as an opportunity to acquire undervalued assets [5][7] - Key sectors such as liquor, securities, and real estate are crucial for market performance; their lack of significant growth could lead to reduced trading volume [5][7] Group 2 - Position management is critical, as the market may experience unexpected movements; the focus should be on the outcomes rather than short-term fluctuations [7] - The market is anticipated to see a bullish trend if it continues to close positively in June, following a positive close in May [7] - Investors are encouraged to consider ETFs if they are unable to generate profits from individual stock investments [7]