Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Report's Core View - The supply of domestic large - scale pig farms has begun to decrease after the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, which supports the short - term price of live pigs. It is expected that the supply of pigs and pork will both decrease this week. The overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened after the long holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption. The market may experience a double - decline in supply and demand this week, with short - term pig prices oscillating downward and maintaining a range - bound pattern in the medium term. The LH2601 contract of live pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 11,700 - 12,100 [8]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Prompt - No specific content provided for daily prompt. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada have boosted market confidence. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the market has entered a slack season, with both supply and demand decreasing. The spot price of live pigs is weak in the short term and maintains a range - bound pattern in the medium term [10]. - Pork demand has weakened in the short term after the festivals, but the spot price of live pigs has returned to an oscillating state due to reduced supply. The continued decline space may be limited, and it may show a trend of bottoming out and rebounding [10]. - The loss of domestic pig - farming profits has recently widened, and the enthusiasm for large - pig slaughter has weakened in the short term. The double - decline in supply and demand supports the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot [10]. - The spot price of live pigs has remained stable after the National Day, and the futures have generally returned to a range - bound pattern in the medium term. Further observation of supply and demand growth is needed [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: The domestic live pig supply has entered a slack season after the long holiday, and the continued decline space of the domestic live pig spot price may be limited [11]. - **Bearish factors**: There is a pessimistic expectation in the domestic macro - environment due to the China - US tariff war, and the domestic live pig inventory has increased year - on - year [11]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and demand**: In the supply aspect, the supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease this week. In the demand aspect, the overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened after the long holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption [8]. - **Base difference**: The national average spot price is 12,510 yuan/ton, and the base difference of the 2601 contract is 630 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: As of June 30, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [8]. - **Market trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward [8]. 5. Position Data - The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic pig market is expected to see a double - reduction in supply and demand this week. Pig prices are likely to be weak in the short - term, with a mid - term trend of bottoming out and then oscillating. The LH2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 12,000 - 12,400 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease this week. The market may experience a double - reduction in supply and demand, with short - term weak pig prices and a mid - term oscillating pattern. Attention should be paid to the monthly group - farm slaughter rhythm and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market [10]. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada boost market confidence. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the pig market shows a double - reduction in supply and demand, with short - term weak spot prices and a mid - term oscillating pattern [12]. - Pig demand has weakened in the short - term after the festivals, but spot prices are supported by reduced supply and may bottom out and rebound. The short - term profit of pig farming has worsened, and the enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs has decreased, supporting the short - term price expectations of pig futures and spot [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish**: Domestic pig supply enters the off - season after the long holiday, and the room for further decline in domestic pig spot prices may be limited [13]. - **Bearish**: There is a pessimistic expectation in the domestic macro - environment due to the Sino - US tariff war, and the year - on - year increase in domestic pig inventory [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - side**: As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million, a 0.4% month - on - month increase and a 2.2% year - on - year increase. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million, a 0.02% month - on - month increase and a 4.2% year - on - year increase [10]. - **Demand - side**: After the long holiday, the overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption [10]. - **Price - related**: The national average spot price is 11,770 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2601 contract is 405 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [10]. 5. Position Data - The net position of the main players is short, and short positions are increasing [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic pig market is expected to see a double reduction in supply and demand this week. Pig prices are likely to be weak in the short - term, and may bottom - out and rebound to maintain a volatile pattern in the medium - term. The LH2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,400 [10]. - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada boost market confidence. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the market shows a double - reduction in supply and demand, with short - term weak spot prices and a medium - term range - bound pattern [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease this week. The overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened after the long holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption. The market may experience a double reduction in supply and demand, and pig prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and may bottom - out and rebound in the medium - term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the monthly group - farm slaughter rhythm and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market [10]. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on US and Canadian pork imports boost market confidence. After the festivals, the market has a double - reduction in supply and demand, with short - term weak spot prices and a medium - term range - bound pattern [12]. - Pork demand has weakened in the short - term after the festivals, but the spot price has returned to a volatile state due to reduced supply. The continued decline space may be limited, and it may show a bottom - out and rebound trend [12]. - The loss of domestic pig farming profits has recently expanded, reducing the short - term enthusiasm for large - pig slaughter. The double - reduction in supply and demand supports the short - term expectations of pig futures and spot prices [12]. - The pig spot price has remained stable after the National Day, and the futures have generally returned to a medium - term range - bound pattern. Further observation of supply and demand growth is needed [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The domestic pig supply has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the continued decline space of domestic pig spot prices may be limited [13]. - **Bearish Factors**: The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic expectation due to the Sino - US tariff war, and the domestic pig inventory has increased year - on - year [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh - meat demand [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, large - scale farms in China have started to reduce slaughter, and it is expected that the supply of pigs and meat will decrease this week. As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [10]. - **Demand**: The domestic macro - environment expectation has improved, but after the long holiday, the overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption [10]. - **Price**: The national average spot price is 10,970 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2601 contract is 1,225 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward [10]. 5. Position Data - The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are increasing [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The medium - term outlook for global soybean supply remains loose, suggesting a strategy of selling on rallies. In the short term, due to the US's tariff threats, soybean prices will likely trade in a range [4]. - For oils, the medium - term outlook is supported by factors such as low inventories in India and Southeast Asia, but short - term trading should be on hold due to weak market sentiment [6][7]. - For sugar, given the high production in Brazil and expected increases in the Northern Hemisphere, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended in the fourth quarter [12]. - For cotton, considering weak fundamentals and macro - negative factors, the short - term price is likely to decline [15]. - For eggs, a bearish view is recommended for the near - term, but there may be a rebound in the medium - term and a short - selling opportunity after the rebound in the long - term [18]. - For live pigs, in the fourth quarter, while the theoretical supply pressure is large, the far - month contracts should not be overly bearish. The trading strategy should shift from short - selling on rallies to reducing short positions [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, CBOT soybeans fell due to concerns over China - US trade relations. Domestic soybean meal spot prices rose by 10 yuan/ton, with good trading and pick - up. Last week, domestic port soybean inventories exceeded 10 million tons, and soybean meal inventories continued to decline. MYSTEEL estimates this week's soybean crushing volume at 2.1674 million tons [2]. - **Influencing Factors**: Imported soybean costs are supported by low US soybean valuations, China - US trade relations, and Brazil's planting season trading. However, they also face pressure from factors such as global protein raw material supply surplus [3]. - **Strategy**: Given the large domestic supply pressure and high soybean inventories, the medium - term strategy is to sell on rallies. In the short term, due to tariff threats, prices will likely trade in a range [4]. Oils - **Market Conditions**: From October 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 9.86% - 19.37% compared to the previous month. As of October 10, 2025, domestic soybean oil inventories increased by 1.31% week - on - week, and palm oil inventories decreased slightly. On Monday, domestic oils oscillated and declined [6]. - **Strategy**: The medium - term outlook is supported, but short - term trading should be on hold due to weak market sentiment [7]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell slightly. Brazilian data shows that in the first half of September, sugar production increased year - on - year, and the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased [9][11]. - **Strategy**: Given high production in Brazil and expected increases in the Northern Hemisphere, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended in the fourth quarter [12]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated. Spinning and weaving factory operating rates are lower than in previous years, and cotton inventories are lower than the five - year average [14]. - **Strategy**: Considering weak fundamentals and macro - negative factors, the short - term price is likely to decline [15]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: National egg prices are stable or falling, with supply - demand pressure remaining. Producers are eager to sell, but the circulation speed is slow [17]. - **Strategy**: A bearish view is recommended for the near - term, but there may be a rebound in the medium - term and a short - selling opportunity after the rebound in the long - term [18]. Live Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Domestic pig prices showed mixed trends. Northern farmers are reluctant to sell, and secondary fattening provides some support, while southern farmers face greater pressure to sell [19]. - **Strategy**: In the fourth quarter, while the theoretical supply pressure is large, the far - month contracts should not be overly bearish. The trading strategy should shift from short - selling on rallies to reducing short positions [20].

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The supply and demand of live hogs are both increasing, but the supply growth rate is still relatively large, and the supply - demand situation is relatively loose. Spot prices are likely to remain weak in a volatile manner. Futures contracts 2511 and 2601 are mainly dragged down by the weak spot market and remain weak [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 10th, the main 2601 live hog futures contract opened slightly lower, then rose and then fell, closing down. The highest price was 12,310 yuan/ton, the lowest was 12,130 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,140 yuan/ton, down 0.78% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 17,324 lots to 276,137 lots [6] - **Spot Market**: On the 10th, the average price of ternary hogs nationwide was 11.24 yuan/kg, down 0.22 yuan/kg from the previous day [6] - **Supply - side**: In September, the actual completion rate of supply - side slaughter was only 96.5%, and some slaughter will be postponed to October. The planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in October increased by 5.14% compared with the actual slaughter volume in September. The slaughter weight increased seasonally. In the long term, the slaughter of live hogs is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year [7] - **Demand - side**: Currently, secondary fattening maintains sporadic replenishment. There is some replenishment demand due to low meat - making costs and declining pen utilization rates, and it has increased in some areas. Terminal demand lacks obvious positive support and has slightly declined after the festival. However, as the weather continues to cool, consumer demand may continue to rise. The orders of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased, and the operating rate and slaughter volume have slightly increased, but the overall increase is limited. On October 10th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 154,500 heads, an increase of 11,800 heads from the previous day, a decrease of 15,000 heads week - on - week, and an increase of 7,000 heads month - on - month [7] 2. Industry News - As of October 9th, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising live hog was - 77 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 23 yuan/head; the average profit per live hog purchased with piglets was - 320 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 13 yuan/head [8][10] 3. Data Overview - The average market sales price of 15kg piglets in the week of October 9th was 281 yuan/head, a decrease of 53 yuan/head from the previous week [19] - The price difference between 150 - kg fat hogs and standard hogs in the week of October 9th was 0.26 yuan/jin, a weekly increase of 0.1 yuan/jin [19] - As of the week of October 9th, the average slaughter weight of live hogs nationwide was 128.48 kg, a decrease of 0.07 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month decline of 0.05% [19]

Core Viewpoint - The market is in a bearish trend with a strong supply and weak demand dynamic. The recent decline in pig prices during the holiday period reflects a significant increase in supply, while demand has not matched this increase, indicating that the bottom for pig prices may not have been reached yet [4]. Supply and Demand Logic - Short-term supply pressure continues with no positive drivers for pig prices, which are currently weak. The average price in many regions has fallen below 12 yuan per kilogram. The post-holiday demand is expected to decline, leading to sustained pressure on supply and prices [8]. - In the medium to long term, the supply base is established, and the overall trend for pig prices is expected to remain weak. There is potential for inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, but speculative demand may influence short-term price movements [10]. Breeding and Slaughtering - The breeding sector is experiencing increased output, with the average weight of pigs being slightly reduced, indicating a stronger willingness to sell among farmers. However, the overall weight remains high compared to the same period last year, suggesting continued pressure [20][21]. - The slaughtering industry is seeing a post-holiday decline in operational rates and slaughter volumes, with average daily slaughtering volume dropping by 4.53% [35][36]. Cost and Profit Analysis - The breeding costs have remained relatively stable, but profits are being heavily influenced by falling pig prices. Currently, the breeding sector is experiencing losses, with self-breeding profits at approximately -135.62 yuan per head [48]. - The price of piglets continues to decline, leading to negative profits for piglet sales, which may affect the overall production capacity in the future [52]. Price Structure - The market is characterized by oversupply, leading to continued declines in spot prices. The price difference between fat and lean pigs has widened, indicating a more significant drop in lean pig prices compared to fat pigs [28][62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic pig market is expected to see a decrease in both supply and demand this week. Pig prices are likely to be weak in the short - term, with a potential bottom - out and rebound in the medium - term, maintaining a volatile pattern. The LH2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 12,600 - 13,000 [10]. - The Chinese government's decision to impose additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada has boosted market confidence. However, the domestic pig consumption market is affected by the approaching off - season. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the supply and demand of pigs have both decreased, and the spot price is expected to be weak in the short - term and maintain a range - bound oscillation in the medium - term [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease this week. The domestic macro - environment shows some improvement, but consumer willingness has weakened after the holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption. The market is expected to have a double - decline in supply and demand, with pig prices being weak in the short - term and potentially bottoming out and rebounding in the medium - term [10]. - **Basis**: The national average spot price is 12,180 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2601 contract is 645 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [10]. - **Inventory**: As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a 0.4% month - on - month increase and a 2.2% year - on - year increase. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a 0.02% month - on - month increase and a 4.2% year - on - year increase [10]. - **Market Trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [10]. - **Expectation**: In the near future, both supply and demand of pigs have started to decrease. Pig prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern this week, with the LH2601 contract oscillating in the range of 12,600 - 13,000 [10]. 3.2 Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada have boosted market confidence. After the festivals, the supply and demand of pigs have decreased, and the spot price is expected to be weak in the short - term and maintain a range - bound oscillation in the medium - term [12]. - After the festivals, pork demand has weakened in the short - term, but the spot price has returned to a volatile state due to reduced supply. The room for further price decline may be limited, and it may show a bottom - out and rebound trend [12]. - The losses in pig farming profits have recently expanded, reducing the enthusiasm for large - pig slaughter in the short - term. The double - decline in supply and demand supports the short - term expectations of pig futures and spot prices [12]. - After the National Day, the pig spot price has remained stable, and the futures market has generally returned to a range - bound oscillation pattern. Further observation of supply and demand growth is needed [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The domestic pig supply has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the room for further decline in the domestic pig spot price may be limited [13]. - **Bearish Factors**: The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic expectation due to the China - US tariff war, and the domestic pig inventory has increased year - on - year [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The report provides the prices of pig futures (near - month 2511, main 2601), pig futures warrants, and the spot prices of outer - ternary pigs in different regions from September 22 to September 30 [14]. - **Inventory Data**: As of March 31, the pig inventory was 408.5 million heads, a 5.9% month - on - month decrease and a 5.2% year - on - year decrease. As of the end of May 2024, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.96 million heads, a 0.2% month - on - month increase and a 6.2% year - on - year decrease [28]. 3.5 Position Data No specific position data is summarized in the report, only that the main position is net short and short positions are increasing [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is expected to remain loose, suggesting a strategy of selling on rallies. In the short - term, soybean meal is likely to fluctuate weakly due to high domestic supply pressure and uncertain factors in South American planting and weather [2][3]. - **Oils and Fats**: The center of the oils and fats market is supported by factors such as low inventories in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, increased demand for soybean oil from the US biodiesel policy, limited production growth potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, and reduced export volume expectations from Indonesia. Oils and fats are expected to be strong in the medium - term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [5][6]. - **Sugar**: The data of sugarcane crushing and sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of September are bearish. With expected increases in production in the Northern Hemisphere's major producing countries in the new season, a bearish outlook is maintained, and short - selling on rallies is advised in the fourth quarter [9][10]. - **Cotton**: After the National Day, the price of Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be weak. The estimated cost support is around 12,860 - 13,130 yuan/ton [12][13]. - **Eggs**: The domestic egg market has a supply - demand imbalance. After the holiday, the futures price may remain weak, but there may be support from potential inventory transfers. It is advisable to wait for the bottom - building process and adopt a wait - and - see or short - term trading strategy [15][16]. - **Pigs**: The current spot price of pigs may continue to decline. A strategy of short - selling near - term contracts and reverse arbitrage is recommended, while being cautious about post - holiday price fluctuations [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: During the National Day holiday, CBOT soybeans rose about 2% compared to the pre - holiday closing price. Domestic soybean meal spot prices slightly decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton in some areas and increased in others. As of October 2, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season reached 9% [2]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply pressure is high, and the cost side lacks clear positive factors. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is expected to be loose, and in the short - term, soybean meal is likely to fluctuate weakly [3]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Indonesia is promoting the B50 plan for biodiesel in 2026. Reuters estimates that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September may have decreased by 2.5% compared to August. During the National Day holiday, Malaysian palm oil rose about 4.2% compared to the pre - holiday closing price. Domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [5]. - **Strategy**: Supported by multiple factors, the oils and fats market is expected to be strong in the medium - term. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [6][7]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated. During the National Day holiday, the price of raw sugar changed little. In the first half of September, the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased year - on - year [8][9]. - **Strategy**: The data are bearish, and with expected production increases in the new season, short - selling on rallies is advised in the fourth quarter [10]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Before the holiday, Zhengzhou cotton futures declined. During the National Day holiday, US cotton prices fell. Domestic processing enterprises' cotton purchase is rational, and the purchase price of seed cotton is lower than last year [12]. - **Strategy**: After the National Day, the price of Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be weak, with cost support around 12,860 - 13,130 yuan/ton [13]. Eggs - **Market Information**: During the holiday, domestic egg prices generally declined. Supply is large, demand is weak, and there is inventory accumulation in some areas [15]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand imbalance persists. After the holiday, the futures price may remain weak, but there may be support from potential inventory transfers. A wait - and - see or short - term trading strategy is recommended [16]. Pigs - **Market Information**: During the holiday, domestic pig prices generally declined. Supply exceeds demand, and there is a possibility of further price drops [17]. - **Strategy**: The current spot price may continue to decline. A strategy of short - selling near - term contracts and reverse arbitrage is recommended, while being cautious about post - holiday price fluctuations [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to increase this week as large domestic farms are more willing to sell pigs before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, while consumer demand for fresh pork is also boosted by the approaching holidays and the start of the school term. The market is likely to see both increased supply and demand, with short - term weak pig prices and a mid - term trend of bottoming out and then fluctuating. The price of LH2511 is expected to fluctuate between 12,600 and 13,000 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The fundamental situation shows that supply and demand are both increasing. The basis indicates that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. The inventory shows an increase in pig and sow stocks. The price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net long position of the main contract is decreasing. The expected price of LH2511 will fluctuate between 12,600 and 13,000 [10]. 2. Recent News - China's tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. As the holidays approach, the supply and demand of pigs are both increasing, with short - term weak spot prices and mid - term price fluctuations. The short - term improvement in pork demand is affected by increased supply, and the price may bottom out after the National Day. The loss of pig - farming profits has expanded, and the short - term price of pigs is supported by the increase in supply and demand [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include the peak consumption season before the long holiday and limited room for further decline in the spot price. Bearish factors are the pessimistic macro - environment due to the Sino - US tariff war and the year - on - year increase in pig inventory. The current main logic is the focus on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - The report provides data on pig futures, warehouse receipts, and spot prices from September 16th to 24th, including prices of different contracts and spot prices in various regions [14]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the document

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of the domestic pig market are expected to increase this week, and the pig price is expected to bottom out and rebound in the short term, maintaining a volatile pattern. The market should focus on the changes in the slaughter rhythm of group farms at the end of the month and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market. The LH2511 contract of live pigs is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,400 - 12,800 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The fundamentals show that in September, the domestic market is gradually entering the peak season of supply and demand before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day. The enthusiasm for domestic slaughter has increased, and the pig price is expected to maintain short - term fluctuations. It is expected that the supply of pigs and meat will increase this week. On the demand side, the domestic macro - environment expectation has improved, and the overall consumption willingness of residents has increased with the approaching of the school season and long holidays, which boosts the short - term fresh pork consumption and market confidence. The base price indicates that the national average spot price is 12,560 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2511 contract is 105 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The inventory shows that as of June 30, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%; as of the end of June, the breeding sow inventory was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. The market trend shows that the price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward. The main positions are net long, with an increase in long positions. It is expected that the supply and demand of live pigs will pick up recently, and the pig price will maintain a weak and volatile pattern this week, with the LH2511 contract fluctuating in the range of 12,400 - 12,800 [10]. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the United States and Canada have boosted market confidence. Affected by the off - season, with the approaching of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the slaughter of large pigs has increased, resulting in an increase in both supply and demand of live pigs. The spot price has returned to short - term fluctuations, and the futures price has also shown a range - bound pattern. Recently, the high - temperature weather has led to a short - term decline in pork demand. The spot price of live pigs has fluctuated weakly due to the increase in supply, but the decline may be limited due to the gradual recovery of demand. The domestic pig farming profit has remained at a low level, and the short - term profit has deteriorated. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs is currently good, and the increase in both supply and demand supports the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot. The spot price of live pigs may fluctuate strongly before the National Day, and the futures price will return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. Further observation of the growth of supply and demand is needed [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include that the domestic pig consumption has entered the peak season before the long holiday, and the room for further decline in the domestic live pig spot price may be limited. Bearish factors include the pessimistic expectation of the domestic macro - environment affected by the Sino - US tariff war and the year - on - year increase in domestic live pig inventory. The current main logic is that the market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - The report provides data on live pig futures, warehouse receipts, and spot prices from September 15 to September 23, including prices of the main 2511 contract, far - month 2601 contract, 2411 contract, and spot prices in different regions such as Shandong, Jiangsu, Hunan, and Guangdong. It also shows various charts related to the fundamentals of live pigs, including the basis and spread trends of live pig futures, the average prices of different specifications of live pigs in the spot market, and the supply - side indicators such as pig prices, piglet indicators, inventory, pork imports, fattening costs, feed profit expectations, slaughter, profit, and substitution. On the demand side, it includes consumption trends, pig - grain ratio, and the situation of purchase and release of reserves [14]. 5. Position Data - Not explicitly summarized in the given content.