Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the development opportunity for "domestic demand" and highlights the value of sector allocation. The government's work report for 2025 includes stabilizing the real estate market as a key requirement for economic and social development. There is a positive expectation for incremental policies, which are crucial for stabilizing domestic demand amid export fluctuations. The recent deep adjustment in the sector has improved the cost-effectiveness of allocations, with A-share Shenwan real estate PB at 0.7X and H-share domestic real estate PB at 0.47X, nearing historical lows [1][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - New housing market transactions for the week totaled 201 million square meters, with a month-on-month decline of 0.90% and a decrease of 1.46 percentage points compared to the previous month. The cumulative inventory stands at 111.49 million square meters, with accelerated de-stocking in second and third-tier cities, while first-tier cities are slowing down [3][15]. - The second-hand housing market saw transactions of 207 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 19.70%, although this represents a decline of 19.38 percentage points from the previous month [3][24]. - The land market recorded a transaction area of 2.628 million square meters, with a rolling 12-week year-on-year decline of 15.78% [3][29]. 2. Financing Dynamics - As of April 10, 2025, approximately 850 projects for acquiring idle land using special bonds have been announced nationwide, covering over 40 million square meters and totaling 128.2 billion yuan. The majority of these projects are led by local state-owned enterprises [2][11]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on non-state-owned enterprises benefiting from debt resolution, policy relief, and demand improvement. It also highlights leading real estate companies with product advantages and regional enterprises with improved market share. Additionally, it recommends second-hand intermediaries benefiting from increased transaction activity [4][10]. - Specific companies to watch include: 1. Non-state-owned enterprises: Longfor Group, Gemdale Corporation, New Town Holdings, Greentown China, and Binjiang Group 2. Local state-owned enterprises: Yuexiu Property, Urban Construction Development, and Jianfa International Group 3. Leading state-owned enterprises: China Overseas Land & Investment, China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and China Resources Land 4. Quality property management firms: China Overseas Property, Poly Property, China Resources Mixc Life, Wanwu Cloud, and China Merchants Jinling [4][10].

Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery during the traditional "Silver April" period, supported by various policy measures aimed at reducing housing costs for residents [1][2] - Increased housing subsidies have become a focal point for local governments to lower the cost of home purchases, with over 170 real estate policies introduced across more than 110 provinces and cities since 2025 [1] - Innovative financial products are being explored to alleviate repayment pressures for homebuyers, such as Suzhou's "three lows and one wide" financial product [2] Group 1 - Local governments are implementing various housing subsidies, such as first-time homebuyer subsidies and family subsidies in cities like Yiwu and Hohhot, with specific examples including a 2% subsidy on the total contract price for first-time buyers in Hohhot [1] - Shenzhen is introducing new methods for "old-for-new" housing exchanges, providing a 30,000 yuan subsidy for clients selling old properties and purchasing new ones, which aims to stimulate demand for cross-city upgrades [1] - The recent policies reflect a broader trend of cities learning from each other, with increased housing subsidies and improved "old-for-new" policies likely to be adopted in more locations [1] Group 2 - There is a growing expectation among homebuyers for further policy measures to reduce housing pressures, including potential reductions in mortgage rates, particularly for public housing loans [2] - The focus of recent policies is on providing maximum benefits to homebuyers, indicating a strong commitment from local governments to stabilize the real estate market [2] - Analysts suggest that April is often a key period for policy announcements, with expectations for more "stabilizing real estate" measures to be introduced [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the importance of stabilizing the real estate market in response to the ongoing trade war, emphasizing the need for domestic demand expansion [2][3]. - It notes a significant decline in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with new home sales in 34 key cities dropping by 23% week-on-week and 26% year-on-year in April [4][7]. - The report indicates that the government is implementing policies to stabilize the market, including the cancellation of housing transfer restrictions in Nanjing and the expansion of housing fund withdrawal policies [32][33]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transaction Volume - New housing sales in 34 key cities totaled 3.093 million square meters last week, a week-on-week decrease of 23.4% [4]. - Year-on-year, new housing sales in April are down 26%, with first and second-tier cities seeing a 21% decline and third and fourth-tier cities experiencing a 49% drop [7][8]. Second-Hand Housing Transaction Volume - Second-hand housing sales in 13 key cities fell by 26.2% week-on-week, with April sales down 15% year-on-year [13]. - Cumulative sales for the year to date show a 26.5% increase compared to the previous year [13]. New Housing Inventory - In 15 key cities, 710,000 square meters of new housing were launched last week, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 2.08, indicating a continued trend of inventory reduction [21]. - The total available residential area in these cities is 88.71 million square meters, reflecting a 0.9% decrease week-on-week [21]. Policy and News Tracking - The report discusses macroeconomic policies, including the imposition of tariffs on U.S. imports and the rise in manufacturing PMI to 50.5%, indicating a recovery in manufacturing activity [32][33]. - It highlights local government initiatives, such as Nanjing's cancellation of housing transfer restrictions and the expansion of housing fund policies in various cities [32][33]. - The report also notes the active land market in core cities, with significant land sales and project launches reported in the first quarter of 2025 [32][33].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Tianjin real estate market, suggesting a "small spring" trend in land transactions and new home sales for early 2025 [3]. Core Insights - The Tianjin real estate market has shown signs of recovery with significant land transactions and new home sales, establishing a solid foundation for market development in 2025 [3]. - The top 10 real estate companies in Tianjin achieved a total sales volume of 6.92 billion yuan in January and February 2025, with a minimum threshold of 480 million yuan for the ranking [4]. - The top-selling project, "Jian Investment Yuhe Yuan," recorded sales of 580 million yuan, leading the project sales ranking [6]. Sales Performance of Top 10 Companies - The top three companies by sales volume are: 1. 泰达建设 (Teda Construction) - 1.36 billion yuan 2. 中海地产 (China Overseas Property) - 950 million yuan 3. 天津城投 (Tianjin Urban Investment) - 740 million yuan [4][6]. - The total sales area for the top 10 companies reached 1.1 million square meters [4]. Project Sales Performance - The top 10 residential projects in Tianjin achieved a total sales volume of 2.95 billion yuan, with a minimum threshold of 210 million yuan for the ranking [6]. - The leading project by sales area was "Jian Investment Yuhe Yuan," with a transaction area of 21,000 square meters [6]. Policy Environment - In February, the central government emphasized boosting consumption, including housing demand, and urged local governments to enhance the supply of affordable housing [8]. - The report anticipates that the upcoming national meetings will release more positive signals for stabilizing the real estate market, which is expected to boost market confidence [8]. Land Market Analysis - In February 2025, Tianjin launched 23 land parcels, including 5 residential land parcels, with a total transaction amount of 4.657 billion yuan [10][12]. - The most notable transaction was for a residential land parcel in Heping District, which sold for 296 million yuan with a premium rate of 8.82%, marking a new high since 2018 [3][13].