Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils have remained stable or slightly declined during the holiday period, with weak transaction volumes reported in Shanghai and Hangzhou [1] - The U.S. plans to increase steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% starting June 4, alongside heightened export restrictions to China, leading to increased market uncertainty and risk aversion [1] - The traditional demand peak for construction steel will end in June, with weakening real estate investment and reports of corporate bond defaults, resulting in poor demand expectations [1] Group 2 - The crude steel production reduction policy has not yet been implemented, and long-process steel mills are still profitable, leading to slow production cuts and concerns about accumulating supply pressure during the off-season [1] - The supply of raw materials is ample, with risks of price declines for coal, coke, and iron ore, potentially lowering steelmaking costs [1] - The forecast for rebar prices in the second quarter is a downward trend, with cautious investors advised to hold sell positions on out-of-the-money call options and to short the 10 contract [1] Group 3 - The U.S. manufacturing PMI fell unexpectedly in May, indicating external demand pressures affecting manufacturing and indirect exports of sheet metal, compounded by insufficient domestic demand [1] - The crude steel production reduction policy remains unimplemented, and slow production cuts from steel mills, along with ample raw material supply, are expected to drag down steel prices [1] - The forecast for hot-rolled coil prices in the second quarter is also weak, with continued short positions on the 10 contract recommended [1] Group 4 - The supply-demand imbalance for imported iron ore is not prominent, with decreasing inventories at steel mills and ports [1] - However, uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies and ongoing external demand pressures, coupled with insufficient domestic demand, lead to poor expectations for steel demand [1] - In June, there may be increased shipping demands from FMG and BHP due to fiscal year-end, while Vale's shipments may shift seasonally, potentially leading to a looser supply-demand situation for imported iron ore [1] Group 5 - Cautious investors are advised to hold a 9-1 long-short combination on iron ore, while aggressive investors may consider shorting the I2601 contract [1] - Risks include potential over-implementation of domestic counter-cyclical adjustment policies and breakthroughs in U.S.-China trade negotiations [1]

大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-6-3） 每日观点 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平继续将保持偏高水平，总体供需宽松，港口库存 增加，市场传言将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价820，基差118；日照港巴粗现货折合盘面价795，基差93，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存14469.58万吨，环比减少，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方,20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：国内需求降低，进口增加，震荡偏空思路 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 利多： 利空： 1.钢厂补库有所增加。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 4.贸易战缓和 1. 后期发货量增加。 2. 终端需 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 每日观点 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平继续将保持偏高水平，总体供需宽松，港口库存 增加，市场传言将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价818，基差119；日照港巴粗现货折合盘面价792，基差94，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存14591.83万吨，环比减少，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方,20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：贸易战有缓和迹象，但国内需求降低，进口增加，震荡偏空思路 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-5-28） 利多： 利空： 1.钢厂补库有所增加。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 4.贸易战缓和 1. 后期发货 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-5-27） 利多： 每日观点 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平继续将保持偏高水平，总体供需宽松，港口库存 增加，市场传言将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价826，基差119；日照港巴粗现货折合盘面价800，基差94，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存14591.83万吨，环比减少，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方,20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：贸易战有缓和迹象，但国内需求降低，进口增加，震荡偏空思路 铁矿石港口现货价格 利空： 1.钢厂补库有所增加。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 4.贸易战 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall supply - demand situation of iron ore is loose, with steel mills' molten iron production decreasing and the arrival level remaining high this month. The port inventory has increased. There are rumors of a crude steel reduction policy, and the trade war is easing. With a neutral fundamental situation, a positive basis, a neutral inventory situation, a positive trend on the disk, a negative main position, and considering the market sentiment and domestic demand, the report suggests a fluctuating and slightly bearish outlook [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills' molten iron production is decreasing, supply - side arrival levels remain high this month, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventory increases, there are rumors of a crude steel reduction policy, and the trade war is easing, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - **Basis**: The spot - equivalent prices of Rizhao Port PB powder and Brazilian coarse ore are 852 and 826 respectively, with basis values of 127 and 101, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is positive [2]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory is 14,746.99 tons, showing a decrease both month - on - month and year - on - year, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is positive [2]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the iron ore main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is negative [2]. - **Expectation**: There are signs of trade war easing, market sentiment is warming up, but domestic demand is decreasing and imports are increasing, suggesting a fluctuating and slightly bearish trend [2]. Factors - **Positive Factors**: Steel mills' replenishment has increased, port inventory has decreased, there are import losses, and the trade war is easing [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Future shipment volumes will increase, terminal demand remains weak, there are rumors of a domestic crude steel reduction policy, and no strong stimulus policies have been introduced [5]. Other Catalogs - The report also includes information on iron ore port spot prices [6], iron ore futures - spot basis [11], iron ore import profit [13], iron ore shipment volume [15], iron ore port inventory and steel mill inventory [18], iron ore arrival and dispatch volume [20], iron ore daily consumption [24], steel enterprise production situation [27], and iron ore port daily trading volume and steel mills' daily molten iron [29], but no specific data summaries are provided in the given text.

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-5-15） 每日观点 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平继续将保持偏高水平，总体供需宽松，港口库存 增加，市场传言将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价867，基差130；日照港巴粗现货折合盘面价840，基差103，现货升水 期货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存14764.71万吨，环比减少，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方,20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓空减；偏空 6、预期：贸易战有缓和迹象，市场情绪回暖，但国内需求降低，进口增加，震荡思路 I2509：730-750区间 交易 利多： 铁矿石港口现货价格 利空： 1.钢厂补库有所增加。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-5-13） 每日观点 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平继续将保持偏高水平，总体供需宽松，港口库存 增加，市场传言将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价858，基差139；日照港巴粗现货折合盘面价830，基差112，现货升水 期货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存14764.71万吨，环比减少，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方,20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓空减；偏空 6、预期：贸易战有缓和迹象，市场情绪回暖，但国内需求降低，进口增加，价格难以上行，震荡思路 I2509：710-730震荡 利多： 利空： 铁矿石港口现货价格 铁矿石期现基差 ...

每日观点 铁矿石： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-5-12） 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平继续将保持偏高水平，总体供需宽松，港口库存 增加，市场传言将出台粗钢压减政策；偏空 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价841，基差145；日照港巴粗现货折合盘面价825，基差129，现货升水 期货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存14764.71万吨，环比减少，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方,20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓空减；偏空 6、预期：贸易战有缓和迹象，市场情绪回暖，但国内需求降低，进口增加，价格难以上行，震荡偏空思路 I2509：690-710震荡 利多： 利空： 1.钢厂补库有所增加。 2.港口库存减少。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "sideways", and for coking coal is "sideways with a weak bias" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Multiple factors boost market sentiment, and coal and coke are expected to rebound from oversold levels. After the holiday, with the release of positive signals in tariff negotiations, risk appetite is expected to recover, and the decline caused by risk - aversion before the holiday is likely to be compensated [4] - There are many significant events in the market recently, mostly positive news such as Sino - US negotiations, crude steel reduction, and a package of financial policies. It is recommended to continue holding long positions in J09 in the short term [5] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Market Conditions - Spot prices are weakly stable, while futures prices are declining. The price of Mongolian 5 main coking coal is reported at 1,040 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the main coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port is reported at 1,380 yuan/ton (unchanged). The September contract is reported at 911.5 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan. The basis is 138.5 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan, and the September - January spread is - 48 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan [1] Supply and Demand - Supply remains flat, while demand continues to rise. The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is reported at 62.97%, basically unchanged. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 75.43%, up 0.16% [2] Inventory - Upstream inventory accumulates, while downstream inventory decreases. The refined coal inventory of 523 mines is 358.52 million tons, up 3.92 million tons, and the raw coal inventory is 558.03 million tons, up 27.58 million tons. The refined coal inventory of coal washing plants is 193.89 million tons, up 12.21 million tons. The inventory of 247 steel mills is 784.79 million tons, up 2.31 million tons, and the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 810.28 million tons, down 9.55 million tons. The port inventory is 311.78 million tons, down 13.01 million tons [2] Coke Market Conditions - Spot prices are temporarily stable, while futures prices are declining. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1,440 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the second round of price increase has encountered resistance and been postponed. The September contract is reported at 1,502 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan. The basis is 48.22 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan, and the September - January spread is - 48.5 yuan/ton, down 10.5 yuan [3] Supply and Demand - Both supply and demand are increasing, and demand is rising beyond expectations. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 75.43%, continuing to recover. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 92%, up 0.4%, and the daily average pig iron output is 245.42 million tons, up 1.07 million tons [3] Inventory - Mid - and upstream inventory decreases, while downstream inventory increases. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 67.06 million tons, down 1.76 million tons. The inventory of 247 steel mills is 675.22 million tons, up 8.87 million tons. The port inventory is 238.12 million tons, down 5.46 million tons [3] Strategy Recommendations - Pay attention to whether there are any unexpected statements regarding supporting the financing of the real estate industry during the press conference of multiple department heads on financial policies at 9:00 today. If the market shows a strong upward trend during the conference, it may be an important turning point for market sentiment recently [4] - In the short term, continue holding long positions in J09. However, pay attention to the sustainability of the short - term recovery in apparent demand in May, which is a traditional off - season. Under the expectation of the crude steel reduction policy this year, the subsequent performance of steel products is expected to strengthen, which may drive the repair of industrial chain profits [5]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Affected by the news of crude steel reduction, the profit of steel mills on the futures market has expanded rapidly. Recently, the spot price of steel has followed the increase, and the immediate spot profit of steel has improved. High profits will drive the continued increase in hot metal production. In the short term, the supply and demand of coking coal and coke are both strong, and the price bottom has certain support. In the medium and long term, considering that it takes time to formulate the details of the crude steel reduction policy, if the policy cannot be implemented immediately, steel mills have no incentive to cut production voluntarily under high profits. When the real demand weakens in late May, the contradictions in the steel market will accumulate again, and the black industry will face a new round of negative feedback. In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, hold a light position during the May Day holiday, and short jm&j2509 at high prices after the holiday [4]. Group 3: Risk Management Strategy Recommendations Coking Coal - For traders with high coking coal spot inventory worried about further price drops, to prevent price declines from affecting trading profits, they can sell coking coal futures (JM2509) to lock in the sales price in advance. The recommended hedging ratio is 25% at 980 - 1030, 50% at 1030 - 1080 [3]. Coke - For coking plants with high finished - product inventory worried about coke price drops, to prevent price declines from damaging coking profits, they can short coke futures (J2509) according to the sales plan to lock in the price. The recommended hedging ratio is 25% at 1600 - 1650, 50% at 1650 - 1700 [3]. Group 4: Market Conditions Analysis 利多 Factors - Steel mills have high profits, and there is still an expectation of increased hot metal production [5]. 利空 Factors - The trade war has escalated, and the US has imposed huge tariffs on China, causing concerns about steel exports. - Coking coal is in serious oversupply. In the Shanxi region, producers are increasing production and reducing prices to maintain sales volume. - The topic of crude steel reduction has been hyped repeatedly [5]. Group 5: Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report | Commodity | Unit | 2025 - 04 - 28 | 2025 - 04 - 25 |环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | Tons | 199647 | 202077 | - 2430 | | Hot - rolled coil | Tons | 349673 | 353201 | - 3528 | | Iron ore | Lots | 3200 | 3200 | 0 | | Coking coal | Lots | 0 | 100 | - 100 | | Coke | Lots | 890 | 890 | 0 | | Silico - manganese | Sheets | 123129 | 122403 | 726 | | Silico - iron | Sheets | 14906 | 14287 | 619 | [5] Group 6: Spot Price and Profit Data Coking Coal and Coke Spot Prices - Multiple types of coking coal and coke spot prices are provided, including prices of different origins such as Anze low - sulfur coking coal, Mongolian coal, and Australian coal, as well as coke prices in different regions like Lvliang and Rizhao. There are also price changes compared to previous days and weeks [7]. Import and Export Profits - Import and export profit data of coking coal and coke are presented, including import profits of Mongolian coal, Australian coal, and Russian coal, as well as coke export profit. There are also daily and weekly profit changes [7]. Basis and Spread Data - Multiple sets of basis and spread data of coking coal and coke are provided, such as coking coal 09 - 01, coke 05 - 09, etc., along with changes compared to previous days and weeks [7]. Ratio and Profit Data - Data on ratios such as the main coking coal/dynamic coal ratio, main ore - coke ratio, main screw - coke ratio, and main coke - coal ratio, as well as profit data such as the on - screen coking profit are presented, along with changes compared to previous days and weeks [7].