Report Overview - **Report Date**: June 30, 2025 - **Report Subject**: Iron Ore - **Report Author**: Hu Yuxiu from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - **Contact Information**: 0575 - 85226759 1. Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The overall supply - demand of iron ore is loose, with a decrease in steel mill's hot metal production and a high level of arrivals this month. The port inventory has increased, and there are rumors of crude steel production reduction policies. The market is expected to be volatile with a downward bias [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - The steel mill's hot metal production is decreasing, the supply side will maintain a relatively high level of arrivals this month, and the overall supply - demand is loose with an increase in port inventory. There are rumors of crude steel production reduction policies, and the trade war has eased, presenting a bearish outlook [2]. Basis Analysis - The spot price of Rizhao Port PB powder converted to the futures price is 743, with a basis of 26; the spot price of Qingdao Port Super Special powder converted to the futures price is 826, with a basis of 110. The spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [2]. Inventory Analysis - The port inventory is 14480.23 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is neutral [2]. Market Chart Analysis - The price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is flat, which is bullish [2]. Main Position Analysis - The net position of the main iron ore contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [2]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: High hot metal production, a decrease in port inventory, and import losses [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: An increase in later shipments and weak terminal demand [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The overall supply - demand of iron ore is loose with reduced steel mill hot metal production, high arrival levels this month, increased port inventories, and rumors of crude steel reduction policies. The market is expected to be volatile and bearish due to decreased domestic demand and increased imports, although there are some bullish factors such as spot premium over futures and price above the 20 - day line [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoint - **Fundamentals**: Steel mill hot metal production is decreasing, supply arrival this month remains high, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories are increasing, there are rumors of crude steel reduction policies, and trade war eases, all being bearish factors [2]. - **Basis**: Rizhao Port PB powder spot converted to futures price is 735 with a basis of 30; Qingdao Port Super Special powder spot converted to futures price is 820 with a basis of 114, showing spot premium over futures, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory is 14433.56 tons, decreasing both on a month - on - month and year - on - year basis, considered neutral [2]. - **Market Chart**: The price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is flat, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position of iron ore is net short and short positions are decreasing, being bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: With decreased domestic demand and increased imports, the market is expected to be volatile and bearish [2]. Bullish Factors - High hot metal production [5]. - Decreased port inventory [5]. - Import losses [5]. Bearish Factors - Increased future shipment volume [5]. - Weak terminal demand [5]. Other Catalogs - **Iron Ore Port Spot Price**: Not elaborated in the report [7]. - **Iron Ore Futures - Spot Basis**: Not elaborated in the report [10]. - **Iron Ore Import Profit**: Not elaborated in the report [12]. - **Iron Ore Shipment Volume**: Not elaborated in the report [14]. - **Iron Ore Port Inventory and Steel Mill Inventory**: Not elaborated in the report [16]. - **Iron Ore Arrival and Dispatching Volume**: Not elaborated in the report [21]. - **Iron Ore Daily Consumption**: Not elaborated in the report [24]. - **Steel Enterprise Production Situation**: Not elaborated in the report [26]. - **Iron Ore Port Daily Transaction and Steel Mill Daily Hot Metal**: Not elaborated in the report [28].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-6-23） 每日观点 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平继续将保持偏高水平，总体供需宽松，港口库存 增加，市场传言将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；偏空 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价793，基差90；日照港巴粗现货折合盘面价767，基差64，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存14433.56万吨，环比减少，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方,20日线向下；中性 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：国内需求降低，进口增加，震荡偏空思路 利多： 利空： 1.铁水产量保持高位。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 1. 后期发货量增加。 2. 终端需求依旧弱势。 铁 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand of iron ore is loose, with port inventories increasing. There are rumors of a crude steel production reduction policy, and trade tensions are easing. The market is expected to be volatile with a downward bias [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - Steel mills' hot metal production is decreasing, supply - side arrivals this month will remain at a relatively high level, leading to a loose overall supply - demand situation and an increase in port inventories. There are rumors of a crude steel production reduction policy, and trade tensions are easing, presenting a bearish outlook [2]. 3.2 Basis Analysis - The spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 789, with a basis of 91; the spot price of Brazilian coarse ore at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 764, with a basis of 66. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price, presenting a bullish outlook [2]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - Port inventories are 14,503.14 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, presenting a neutral outlook [2]. 3.4 Market Trend Analysis - The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, presenting a bearish outlook [2]. 3.5 Main Position Analysis - The net position of the main iron ore contract is short, and short positions are increasing, presenting a bearish outlook [2]. 3.6 Expectation Analysis - Domestic demand is decreasing, and imports are increasing. The market is expected to be volatile with a downward bias [2]. 3.7 Factors Analysis - **Positive Factors**: High hot metal production, decreasing port inventories, and import losses [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Increased future shipments and weak terminal demand [5].

1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平继续将保持偏高水平，总体供需宽松，港口库存 增加，市场传言将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价803，基差98；日照港巴粗现货折合盘面价777，基差73，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存14503.14万吨，环比增加，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方,20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：国内需求降低，进口增加，震荡偏空思路 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-6-17） 每日观点 铁矿石： 利多： 利空： 1.铁水产量保持高位。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 1. 后期发货量增加。 2. 终端需求依旧弱势。 铁 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-6-13） 每日观点 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平继续将保持偏高水平，总体供需宽松，港口库存 增加，市场传言将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价808，基差104；日照港巴粗现货折合盘面价783，基差79，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存14400.31万吨，环比减少，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方,20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：国内需求降低，进口增加，震荡偏空思路 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 利多： 利空： 1.铁水产量保持高位。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 1. 后期发货量增加。 2. 终端需求依旧弱势。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 利空： 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-6-5） 每日观点 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平继续将保持偏高水平，总体供需宽松，港口库存 增加，市场传言将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价817，基差112；日照港巴粗现货折合盘面价791，基差87，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存14469.58万吨，环比减少，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方,20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：国内需求降低，进口增加，震荡偏空思路 利多： 1.钢厂补库有所增加。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 1. 后期发货量增加。 2. 终端需求依旧弱势。 铁 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils have remained stable or slightly declined during the holiday period, with weak transaction volumes reported in Shanghai and Hangzhou [1] - The U.S. plans to increase steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% starting June 4, alongside heightened export restrictions to China, leading to increased market uncertainty and risk aversion [1] - The traditional demand peak for construction steel will end in June, with weakening real estate investment and reports of corporate bond defaults, resulting in poor demand expectations [1] Group 2 - The crude steel production reduction policy has not yet been implemented, and long-process steel mills are still profitable, leading to slow production cuts and concerns about accumulating supply pressure during the off-season [1] - The supply of raw materials is ample, with risks of price declines for coal, coke, and iron ore, potentially lowering steelmaking costs [1] - The forecast for rebar prices in the second quarter is a downward trend, with cautious investors advised to hold sell positions on out-of-the-money call options and to short the 10 contract [1] Group 3 - The U.S. manufacturing PMI fell unexpectedly in May, indicating external demand pressures affecting manufacturing and indirect exports of sheet metal, compounded by insufficient domestic demand [1] - The crude steel production reduction policy remains unimplemented, and slow production cuts from steel mills, along with ample raw material supply, are expected to drag down steel prices [1] - The forecast for hot-rolled coil prices in the second quarter is also weak, with continued short positions on the 10 contract recommended [1] Group 4 - The supply-demand imbalance for imported iron ore is not prominent, with decreasing inventories at steel mills and ports [1] - However, uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies and ongoing external demand pressures, coupled with insufficient domestic demand, lead to poor expectations for steel demand [1] - In June, there may be increased shipping demands from FMG and BHP due to fiscal year-end, while Vale's shipments may shift seasonally, potentially leading to a looser supply-demand situation for imported iron ore [1] Group 5 - Cautious investors are advised to hold a 9-1 long-short combination on iron ore, while aggressive investors may consider shorting the I2601 contract [1] - Risks include potential over-implementation of domestic counter-cyclical adjustment policies and breakthroughs in U.S.-China trade negotiations [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall supply - demand of iron ore is loose, with steel mills' hot metal production starting to decline and the arrival volume at ports remaining high this month. The port inventory is increasing, and there are rumors of a crude steel production cut policy. Considering the reduction in domestic demand and increase in imports, the report suggests an oscillating and bearish outlook for iron ore [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills' hot metal production is decreasing, supply - side arrival volume at ports remains high, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventory is increasing, there are rumors of a crude steel production cut policy, and the trade war is easing, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 820, with a basis of 118; the spot price of Brazilian coarse ore at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 795, with a basis of 93. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory is 14,469.58 tons, showing a decrease both month - on - month and year - on - year, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - **Market Chart**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main iron ore contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: With reduced domestic demand and increased imports, an oscillating and bearish view is adopted [2]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: Steel mills' replenishment has increased, port inventory has decreased, import is at a loss, and the trade war is easing [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: Future shipment volume will increase, terminal demand remains weak, there are rumors of a domestic crude steel production cut policy, and no strong stimulus policies have been introduced [5].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 每日观点 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平继续将保持偏高水平，总体供需宽松，港口库存 增加，市场传言将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价818，基差119；日照港巴粗现货折合盘面价792，基差94，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存14591.83万吨，环比减少，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方,20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：贸易战有缓和迹象，但国内需求降低，进口增加，震荡偏空思路 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-5-28） 利多： 利空： 1.钢厂补库有所增加。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 4.贸易战缓和 1. 后期发货 ...