Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility influenced by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, and central bank gold purchases, while also facing pressure from fluctuating dollar indices and changing market risk preferences [3][5]. Market Analysis - On July 18, spot gold closed at $3350.05, showing a slight decline of 0.25% after a strong rebound from a low of $3309.82, indicating intensified market competition between bulls and bears [1]. - The recent strong U.S. retail sales (+0.6%) and unemployment claims (221,000) contributed to the initial drop in gold prices, but subsequent market reactions led to a recovery [1][3]. - The gold price is currently forming a tight technical triangle between $3320 and $3377, with critical support at $3320 and resistance at $3377, which could lead to further movements towards $3390 and potentially $3400 or $3428 if broken [3][5]. Technical Indicators - The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating a potential for price movement, with gold trading above the middle band, suggesting a rebound from oversold conditions [5]. - The MACD indicator shows a potential bullish crossover, while the RSI indicates strong bullish momentum, reinforcing the likelihood of upward movement [5]. - Short-term trading strategies suggest buying on dips around $3340 with a protective stop at $3330, targeting $3365, while medium-term strategies remain bullish as long as prices hold above $3300 [7].

Core Insights - The report titled "2025 Young People's Savings Report" claims that 30% of respondents have savings exceeding 500,000 yuan, and 12.3% of the post-2000 generation have savings over 300,000 yuan, but the sample is skewed towards high-income individuals from first-tier cities [3][4] - The reality shows a stark contrast, with only 1.5% of the population having savings over 300,000 yuan, and 70% of young people burdened with debt [3][4] - Young people's saving behavior is driven by economic uncertainty, with 56% saving due to fear of sudden unemployment and 48.1% seeking peace of mind [4][9] Savings Behavior - Young individuals are increasingly adopting frugal lifestyles, prioritizing savings over consumption, with 38.8% of post-2000 respondents saving more than half of their monthly income [4][6] - The total savings of Chinese residents surged by 8.3 trillion yuan in the first five months of 2025, with the proportion of fixed deposits reaching a historical peak of 74.29% [4][6] - The emergence of new saving strategies, such as the "52-week savings method," is gaining popularity among young people [6] Consumption Trends - Young people are shifting their consumption mindset, moving away from luxury items to more practical purchases, reflecting a collective action towards financial security [4][6] - The concept of "necessary-need-want" is being adopted, where essential expenses are prioritized over discretionary spending [7][8] - There is a growing interest in gold as a form of savings, with young individuals viewing it as a tangible asset that provides a sense of security [7][8] Investment Preferences - Different age groups exhibit varying investment preferences, with post-90s individuals favoring flexible savings tools like money market funds, while post-80s are diversifying into stocks and insurance [8] - In lower-tier cities, 37.8% of young people have savings between 200,000 to 300,000 yuan, often opting for traditional bank savings [8] - The trend of using automatic savings plans is prevalent, with many young individuals setting up multiple plans to manage their finances effectively [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - Under the backdrop of normalized global geopolitical risks, weakened dollar credit system, and rising economic uncertainty, gold has emerged as a "yardstick" for measuring asset value [1] Asset Performance - Since March 2018, only a few cryptocurrencies have recorded positive returns when priced in gold, while other asset classes have generally underperformed [2] - The report highlights that the performance of cryptocurrencies is driven by payment convenience, technological innovation premiums, and supply scarcity, particularly Bitcoin's halving mechanism, which reinforces its "digital gold" status [4] - Equity assets have shown nominal growth but remain weak when priced in gold, primarily relying on liquidity injections, with a peak growth rate of 26.7% in the US M2 money supply [4] - Real estate in the US and India has underperformed relative to gold, despite benefiting from economic resilience and demographic dividends [4] Industry Performance - All major industries have underperformed gold since 2018, but resource sectors and new momentum industries, such as high-dividend coal and banking, have shown relative strength [6] - New momentum industries, represented by electric new energy and TMT, have outperformed traditional sectors like real estate [7] - In the secondary industry, precious metals have been the standout performer since 2018, with emerging technologies like semiconductors outperforming traditional tech [8] Style and Strategy - Small-cap stocks have emerged as the absolute winners, with the micro-cap index outperforming gold since 2018 due to a reverse investment mechanism, low valuations, and liquidity premiums [10][13] - The report indicates that small-cap factors have significantly outperformed gold, while large-cap stocks have lagged, reflecting a preference for emerging small-cap industries [14]

Core Viewpoint - The impact of the Trump administration's economic policies is becoming increasingly evident, with significant challenges for businesses due to the loss of immigrant labor and fluctuating trade policies [1][4]. Economic Activity - Recent data from the Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates a slight recovery in U.S. economic activity, but the overall outlook remains "neutral to pessimistic" [3]. - All regions reported price increases, with businesses experiencing varying degrees of cost pressure related to tariffs [3][5]. Cost Pressures - Businesses are facing high input cost pressures due to increased tariffs, leading to either profit compression or potential price hikes for consumers [5][6]. - Many companies are adopting different strategies in response to these pressures, with some raising prices preemptively while others choose to wait for clearer trade policies [5]. Consumer Impact - Rising costs are expected to lead to faster increases in consumer prices by late summer, potentially affecting purchasing power and living costs [6]. - If consumer prices rise too quickly without corresponding income growth, it could suppress market demand, negatively impacting business sales and profits [6]. Manufacturing Sector - A few companies mentioned potential benefits from manufacturing returning to the U.S., but this is seen as a rare occurrence and not a guaranteed trend [6]. - The uncertainty in trade policies is hindering businesses from making long-term plans, which could stifle economic vitality [6]. Business Sentiment - Many businesses express concerns about future demand, with some indicating a "business volume cliff" that suggests a significant decline in future activity [4][6]. - The prevailing cautious attitude among businesses, coupled with pessimistic future expectations, may lead to reduced investment and expansion plans, potentially hindering economic growth [5][6].

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" indicates a slight increase in economic activity from late May to early July, but high uncertainty persists, leading businesses to remain cautious [1] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat in June, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, marking the lowest annual growth since September of the previous year [1] Inflation and Price Trends - The UK's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.6% in June, up from 3.4% in May, the highest level since January 2024 [3] - The core CPI in the UK also increased from 3.5% in May to 3.7% in June, driven by rising prices in fuel, air travel, and food [3] Central Bank Activities - The World Gold Council reports that 19 out of 36 surveyed central banks are purchasing gold directly from local miners using their own currencies, indicating a growing appetite for gold [2] - Four additional central banks are considering adopting this practice, reflecting a shift in gold procurement strategies [2] Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 231.49 points to close at 44,254.78, a gain of 0.53% [4] - The S&P 500 index increased by 19.94 points to 6,263.7, up 0.32%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 52.69 points to close at 20,730.49, a rise of 0.25% [4] Commodity Prices - COMEX gold futures increased by 0.52% to $3,354.20 per ounce, while silver futures rose by 0.04% to $38.13 per ounce [5] - Light crude oil futures for August delivery fell by $0.14 to $66.38 per barrel, a decrease of 0.21% [5] Currency Exchange Rates - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.23%, closing at 98.392 [5] - The onshore Chinese yuan closed at 7.1776 against the U.S. dollar, down 42 basis points from the previous trading day [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes reveal significant internal disagreement among officials regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation and the future of interest rates, with most officials concerned about inflationary pressures from Trump's tariff policies [1][2]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Outlook - A minority of officials support an immediate rate cut, while the majority remain cautious, with some suggesting that no cuts are necessary this year [1][2]. - The updated dot plot indicates that out of 19 officials, 10 expect at least two rate cuts by the end of the year, while 7 predict no cuts until 2025, and 2 foresee one cut [1]. Inflation Concerns - Officials express significant uncertainty regarding the timing, scale, and duration of tariffs' impact on inflation, leading to varied opinions on inflation forecasts [1][2]. - Some officials believe that if the labor market weakens or if tariff-induced inflation is mild and temporary, a rate cut could be justified [2]. Economic Policy Uncertainty - The rapid changes in economic policy, including tariffs and other reforms, complicate the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [2]. - Most economists anticipate that tariffs will increase inflation and suppress economic growth, although current economic data has not yet shown widespread effects from tariffs [2]. Future Monitoring - Policymakers will closely monitor the June CPI inflation data set to be released on July 15, with some indicating a willingness to consider a rate cut in the upcoming meeting [3]. - Despite uncertainties, most officials agree that the overall U.S. economy remains stable, allowing for patience in adjusting monetary policy [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. tariff measures are expected to severely impact the world's poorest countries, increasing economic uncertainty and instability [1] Group 1: Impact on Global Economy - The U.S. decision to impose new tariffs and extend the "reciprocal tariff" delay by 90 days will lead to greater uncertainty, harming the global economy [1] - Economic uncertainty is projected to weaken long-term investments and affect business contracts, exacerbating instability [1] Group 2: Effects on Developing Countries - The most vulnerable nations, particularly the least developed countries, are anticipated to suffer the most from these tariff measures [1] - For instance, Lesotho, which exports nearly 60% of its garments to the U.S., faces a potential 50% tariff, threatening its key industry and risking the loss of tens of thousands of jobs [1]

美联储博斯蒂克：呼吁在充满不确定性和经济保持韧性之际要有耐心。 ...

金十数据7月2日讯，由于经济的不确定性使雇主感到不安，美国私营企业上个月的就业人数出现两年多 来的首次下降。根据ADP发布的全国就业报告，美国6月份总共减少了3.3万个工作岗位，相比之下，5 月份的就业岗位增加了2.9万个。这是2023年3月以来首次报告就业人数下降。接受《华尔街日报》调查 的经济学家此前预计，当月新增就业岗位将增至10万个。ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson说："尽管 裁员仍然很少见，但招聘的犹豫和不愿替换离职员工导致上个月就业人数减少。"然而，经济放缓尚未 影响到年度薪酬增长，6月份的增幅为4.4%，仅略低于5月份的4.5%。 美国私营部门就业人数意外减少 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. automotive market is experiencing a significant slowdown after a brief sales peak, with June new vehicle retail sales expected to hit a one-year low, indicating the end of the "tariff panic" buying spree [1] - In March and April, U.S. consumers rushed to purchase vehicles to avoid potential cost increases, resulting in an additional 173,000 vehicles sold, marking the highest growth in recent years [1] - From mid-May onwards, market demand has noticeably weakened, with June projected to be one of the worst-performing months in the past year [1] Group 2 - Different brands are showing varied performance amidst the overall sales slowdown, with Kia's second-quarter sales up approximately 5% and Ford achieving double-digit growth [2] - Luxury brands and niche models are losing market share as consumers shift towards more cost-effective mainstream brands [2] - Despite the implementation of tariff policies, new vehicle prices have not yet seen a direct increase, although Ford, Subaru, and Toyota have announced price hikes for certain models [2] Group 3 - The average transaction price for new vehicles in the U.S. reached $46,233 in June 2025, an increase of $1,400 compared to the same period last year [2] - Supply chain disruptions, particularly for critical components like rare earth magnets used in electric and hybrid vehicles, could further elevate market prices if not addressed [2] - The automotive industry faces a challenging outlook due to the cumulative effects of tariff policies, economic uncertainty, and rising purchase costs, making the upcoming months crucial for assessing the impact of these changes [3]