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有绝对收益思维的投资人,长期收益都不会差!
雪球· 2025-11-16 13:01
Group 1 - The article emphasizes the difference between absolute and relative returns in investment strategies, highlighting that absolute returns focus on the actual profit made regardless of market conditions, while relative returns compare performance against a benchmark or market index [4][5][6][7]. - The author argues that pursuing relative returns is significantly more challenging than achieving absolute returns, as many investors fail to capture even the market's gains during bullish phases [11][12][16]. - The article discusses the psychological impact of holding a single asset during market downturns, noting that investors may struggle with feelings of inadequacy when other asset classes perform well while their chosen asset declines [18][20]. Group 2 - The author presents a strategy for achieving absolute returns through diversified asset allocation, which allows for capturing gains across different market phases, thereby reducing risk [10][24]. - The article provides a specific asset allocation example, suggesting a ratio of 5:1:3:1 for A-shares, U.S. stocks, bonds, and gold, respectively, and mentions that since the implementation of this strategy, the weighted return has exceeded 21% [24][25]. - The author concludes that for non-professional investors, focusing on absolute returns offers a more favorable risk-reward ratio compared to the complexities of consistently achieving relative returns [27].
时至年末,回顾今年的投资,聊聊复盘与应对
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-13 01:26
Core Insights - The year 2025 has been marked by significant market movements, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a nearly ten-year high, validating earlier bullish predictions [1] - Key themes for 2025 include the impact of Trump's new policies, domestic policy responses, and the challenges of asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment [1] - The A-share market has seen a surge in investor participation, with nearly 250 million investors, indicating a robust market environment [2] Market Performance - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have performed well, driven by sectors like AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, with the ChiNext Index outperforming gold [3] - Among 31 primary industries, 30 have reported positive returns, with a stark contrast between the leading materials sector and the declining food and beverage sector, showing an 80% difference [4] - Various fund types have achieved positive returns, with equity and mixed funds averaging 29.97% and 26.17% returns respectively [7] Fund Performance - Commodity funds have seen unprecedented gains, with returns nearing 40%, while QDII funds have also performed well with a 26.46% increase [8] - FOF funds have benefited from diversified asset allocation, achieving an average return of 15.84%, marking one of the best years historically [8] - Bond funds have lagged, with an average return of only 2.13%, although convertible bond funds have performed better, exceeding 20% returns [8] Investment Trends - The concept of "slow bull" has gained traction, with expectations for a sustainable market rally over the next two to three years, supported by technological innovation and policy backing [16] - Investors are increasingly favoring low-volatility products, with a focus on absolute returns and diversified strategies [14] - The market is characterized by alternating sentiments of fear and greed, with a need for disciplined investment approaches amidst volatility [12][19]
在渴望确定性的时代,一场“固收+”的工业化革命来了!
券商中国· 2025-11-09 23:38
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the growing preference for "fixed income+" products in a market characterized by volatility, highlighting a significant structural shift in investor behavior towards lower-risk, more stable investment options [1][2]. Market Trends - By the end of Q3 2025, the total scale of "fixed income+" funds reached 2.47 trillion yuan, with a quarterly increase of over 520 billion yuan [1]. - Historical trends from Japan and the U.S. indicate that the pursuit of absolute returns in low-interest environments leads to a rise in fixed income products [1]. Institutional Response - Institutions with forward-looking perspectives and systematic capabilities are better positioned to navigate the evolving landscape of "fixed income+" products, which have transformed into multi-asset allocation solutions requiring collaborative research and risk management [1][2]. Case Study: China Universal Fund - China Universal Fund has been a pioneer in the "asset management industrialization" approach, exemplified by its MARS factory investment research system, which aims to make the investment process clearer and more controllable [2][3]. - The MARS factory has evolved through three stages, enhancing its investment strategies and risk management capabilities over the past decade [2][3][21]. Performance Metrics - The China Universal Fund's flagship product, Zhongou Jintong A, has achieved a return of 72.8% since its inception, significantly outperforming its benchmark of 24.1% [2][3][27]. - The fund has maintained a maximum drawdown of only -3.5%, showcasing its effective risk management [2][3]. Investment Philosophy - The fund's core objective is to achieve "absolute returns" with a focus on low volatility, aiming for a high probability of annual positive returns [7][8]. - The investment strategy emphasizes disciplined asset allocation, maintaining a stable equity position even during bullish market years [8][12]. Risk Management - The fund employs a proactive risk management system that emphasizes early detection of potential issues rather than reactive measures [12][13]. - The risk control framework has evolved from a reactive approach to a more dynamic, real-time monitoring system [12][13]. Product Design and Client Experience - The introduction of a quarterly evaluation and dividend distribution mechanism has enhanced investor experience, with cumulative dividends reaching 148 million yuan [13][24]. - The focus on client experience is integral to the fund's strategy, ensuring that investment returns translate into real benefits for investors [24][25]. Future Outlook - The multi-asset team is committed to building a comprehensive "solution ecosystem" that aligns with evolving investor needs and market conditions [21][23]. - The industry is shifting towards a model that prioritizes client returns over mere product performance, indicating a more sustainable future for asset management [25][26].
恒立私募总经理潘焕焕: 以多资产多策略为盾 追求有韧性的绝对收益
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the investment philosophy of Pan Huanhuan, emphasizing a multi-asset, multi-strategy approach to achieve absolute returns while maintaining defensive measures against significant drawdowns [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The multi-asset, multi-strategy investment concept was developed during Pan's tenure at a brokerage, where traditional single-asset teams often faced risks during market downturns [2]. - This approach allows for capturing various asset trends and controlling overall risk through hedging mechanisms, leading to more stable investment returns [2][3]. - The philosophy is likened to fishing in multiple ponds, where understanding diverse asset classes is crucial for successful investment [2]. Group 2: Main Strategies - The company has established four primary strategies: multi-asset strategy, fixed increase combination strategy, convertible bond combination strategy, and cross-market arbitrage strategy [4]. - The multi-asset strategy combines top-down macro analysis with bottom-up asset valuation to achieve diversified allocation [4]. - The fixed increase strategy focuses on discounted offerings and large transactions to balance returns and liquidity risks [4]. - The convertible bond strategy employs financial engineering tools to create a multi-factor driven investment strategy [4][5]. - The cross-market arbitrage strategy encompasses various elements, including convertible bonds, stocks, commodities, and overseas markets [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the investment value of convertible bonds, particularly in a volatile market, as they offer a balance of equity and debt characteristics [6][7]. - The investment strategy includes a diversified approach where no single convertible bond exceeds 5% of the portfolio, and no single industry exceeds 15% [7]. - The changing supply-demand dynamics in the convertible bond market are expected to enhance their investment value [7].
“破局者”财通资管:以“变”与“恒”书写权益投资新样本
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-11-06 00:49
Core Viewpoint - The article challenges the perception that brokerage asset management firms lack equity investment capabilities, highlighting that some firms, like Caitong Asset Management, have successfully established themselves in this area through active management and a focus on deep research and value investment [1][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Caitong Asset Management has a total management scale exceeding 300 billion yuan, with nearly 110 billion yuan in public fund management, maintaining a leading position in the brokerage asset management industry [3]. - The firm has achieved a 156.69% absolute return rate for its equity funds over the past seven years, ranking in the top 20% among fund managers [3]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy and Team Structure - The investment philosophy of Caitong Asset Management is centered around "deep research, value investment, absolute returns, and long-term assessment," which has guided its equity investment strategy since its inception [4]. - The equity research team consists of approximately 40 members, with over 20 dedicated equity researchers, and has grown the scale of its equity public funds from 700 million yuan to over 17 billion yuan [4][5]. Group 3: Research and Investment Strategy - The firm has established a structured approach to integrate research and investment, with clear departmental divisions focusing on public and private equity investments, each led by experienced fund managers [8]. - Caitong Asset Management emphasizes a long-term investment strategy, focusing on fundamental research to uncover intrinsic value, regardless of market fluctuations [13][15]. Group 4: Team Development and Culture - The average experience of equity fund managers and investment managers at Caitong Asset Management exceeds 14 years, with many having backgrounds in absolute return investments [5]. - The firm fosters a culture of openness and shared values, encouraging diverse investment styles while ensuring that all team members receive adequate research support [12].
股债混搭的艺术:三位“固收+”投资舵手细谈如何搭出高性价比
Core Insights - The article discusses the growing importance of "fixed income +" products in a market characterized by declining interest rates and the shift towards net asset value management in bank wealth management [1][2] - It emphasizes the need for investors to understand the optimal equity-debt allocation and strategies to navigate market volatility for better investment experiences and returns [1] Group 1: Risk-Return Optimization - The management of "fixed income +" products requires a balance between risk and return, with a focus on understanding client expectations and market volatility [4][5] - Different products cater to varying risk appetites, with low and medium volatility products being more suitable for a broader range of investors [4][6] - A three-tiered drawdown warning mechanism is established to manage portfolio risks effectively, with ongoing optimization efforts [6][8] Group 2: Preserving Returns - In challenging equity market conditions, maintaining the returns of "fixed income +" products is crucial, with a focus on asset allocation and flexible investment styles [10][11] - The importance of a disciplined approach to position sizing and risk exposure is highlighted, particularly in low-volatility products [10][11] Group 3: Absolute Return Pursuit - Achieving absolute return targets has become increasingly difficult in a low-interest-rate environment, necessitating strong trading and timing skills from fund managers [12][13] - Risk budget management is employed to construct "fixed income +" portfolios within the constraints of current market conditions [12][13] Group 4: Growth Style Risk Control - The article discusses the necessity of combining asset allocation strategies with trading capabilities to navigate high-volatility markets effectively [14][15] - Identifying macroeconomic risks and structural market trends is essential for maintaining a favorable risk-return profile [15] Group 5: Market Evolution and Adaptation - The capital market landscape has changed significantly, with a systematic decline in asset yields and a shift in investor demographics impacting market dynamics [17][18] - Fund managers are adapting by broadening their research focus to include global markets and various asset classes [17][18] Group 6: Dynamic Rebalancing - Dynamic rebalancing is emphasized as a strategy for managing asset pricing and duration effectively, aiming for a balanced risk-return profile [19][20] - The gradual process of rebalancing is preferred to mitigate risks and smooth out returns over time [20] Group 7: Growth Style "Fixed Income +" - The article highlights a unique approach to "fixed income +" products that incorporate a growth style, aiming to provide stable returns while capitalizing on growth opportunities [21][22] - This strategy is designed to appeal to long-term investors seeking to benefit from societal development trends [22] Group 8: Combining Active and Quantitative Approaches - The integration of quantitative tools with fundamental research is becoming increasingly important for enhancing investment management processes [23][24] - The use of AI and data analytics is noted as a means to improve research efficiency and decision-making [24][25] Group 9: Low Turnover Alpha Sources - The article outlines a method for identifying companies with alpha potential across various industries, emphasizing the importance of aligning investment intentions with company types [26][27] - Continuous learning and industry insights are crucial for selecting companies that can deliver long-term value [27][28] Group 10: Forward-Looking Technology Layout - The focus on technology investments, particularly in AI, is highlighted as a strategic move to capitalize on emerging trends [30][31] - The need for ongoing evaluation of business models and cash flow generation capabilities in the tech sector is emphasized [31][32]
股债混搭的艺术:三位“固收+”投资舵手细谈如何搭出高性价比
点拾投资· 2025-11-05 11:00
Group 1: Optimizing Risk-Return Ratio - The management of "fixed income +" products requires a balance between risk and return, with a focus on understanding client expectations and market volatility [4][5][6] - A diverse team approach enhances research depth and breadth, allowing for better asset allocation and risk management [6] - Implementing a three-tiered drawdown warning mechanism helps in controlling risks while aiming for returns [6][9] Group 2: Preserving Returns - In challenging equity markets, maintaining a flexible investment style and adapting to market trends is crucial for preserving returns in "fixed income +" products [11] - Continuous learning from equity fund managers can provide insights into long-term asset value analysis [11] Group 3: Pursuing Absolute Returns - Achieving absolute return targets has become increasingly difficult due to declining bond yields, necessitating exceptional trading and timing skills [13] - Risk budget management is essential, with a focus on maintaining a portion of risk exposure within the bounds of market conditions [13] Group 4: Risk Control and Opportunities in Growth Style - A dual approach of macroeconomic risk identification and sector-specific investment can help mitigate risks associated with high-volatility assets [16][17] - Focusing on industries with clear trends and improving profit expectations can yield positive returns in a non-systemic risk environment [17] Group 5: Market Evolution and Adaptation - The capital market has seen a systematic decline in asset yields, necessitating a broader research focus that includes global markets and various asset classes [19][20] - Adapting to changes in market structure and investor behavior is vital for maintaining effective investment strategies [20] Group 6: Dynamic Rebalancing - Dynamic rebalancing strategies are employed to manage asset volatility and ensure stable returns, particularly in fluctuating market conditions [23] Group 7: Growth Style "Fixed Income +" - The growth style in "fixed income +" products aims to capture societal development benefits while providing stable returns through fixed income assets [25] Group 8: Combining Active and Quantitative Approaches - Integrating quantitative tools with fundamental research enhances the investment management process, allowing for more efficient decision-making [27] Group 9: Insights and Compounding - Identifying companies with long-term growth potential requires a clear understanding of investment objectives and continuous industry learning [29][30] Group 10: Forward-Looking Technology Layout - Early investments in technology sectors, particularly AI, are based on recognizing transformative trends and potential for long-term growth [33][34]
工银理财党委书记吴茜:多资产、多策略成资管行业趋势
Core Insights - The era of "beta-driven" investment is over, and the asset management industry is shifting towards multi-asset and multi-strategy approaches as a new paradigm for asset allocation [4][5] Industry Trends - The asset management industry is entering a phase of comprehensive competition and cooperation, with bank wealth management, public funds, and insurance asset management all exceeding 30 trillion yuan in assets under management (AUM), with wealth management reaching over 32 trillion yuan by the end of September [4] - The traditional asset allocation logic that supported growth is failing, leading to three main challenges: 1. In a "low interest rate, high volatility, and asset scarcity" environment, the consensus is shifting towards multi-asset and multi-strategy approaches [4] 2. The reallocation of household wealth presents growth opportunities, but wealth management is lagging behind insurance and public funds in terms of growth rates [4][5] 3. The "Net Value 3.0" era demands higher performance stability and consistency, requiring a shift from asset-driven models to strategy-driven models [5][6] Future Directions - The industry must develop a factory-like, industrialized management system that aligns with client risk-return needs, emphasizing professional division of labor, process control, and standardized output [5][6] - Key issues to address include: 1. Transforming "vague investment art" into "precise engineering blueprints" to enhance investment team capabilities and decision-making processes [6] 2. Upgrading from "workshop-style operations" to "standardized assembly line production" for precise process management [6][7] 3. Building a human-centered multi-strategy system to promote strategy upgrades and iterations, focusing on investment manager profiles and performance attribution analysis [7]
汇华理财总经理王茜:锻造全球大类资产配置能力 迎接财富管理新时代
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the proactive approach of Huihua Wealth Management in navigating the challenges posed by declining interest rates and the resulting "asset scarcity" in the asset management industry, highlighting the company's confidence in the long-term prospects of China's wealth management sector and its mature investment management system [2][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Huihua Wealth Management has surpassed an asset management scale of 30 billion RMB, showing significant growth since the beginning of the year [3]. - The company focuses on "absolute return" as a key characteristic of its banking wealth management products, which is driven by the client base's preference for target returns and performance benchmarks [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The company prioritizes "investment-driven product design," distinguishing itself from competitors that rely on liabilities and channels [3]. - Huihua Wealth Management emphasizes global asset allocation as a critical strategy to achieve absolute returns, moving beyond traditional single-market strategies [4][5]. Group 3: Product Development - The company plans to launch a new product system called "Global Navigator" in 2024, focusing on absolute returns and global diversification, with products tailored to different risk preferences [5]. - The "Trend Guide" series of products aims to provide diversified strategies that mitigate the volatility typically associated with equity assets [5]. Group 4: Global and Local Integration - As the first foreign-controlled joint venture wealth management company in China, Huihua Wealth Management leverages its foreign parent company's expertise while adapting to local market needs [6]. - The company combines global investment strategies with local insights, ensuring that its offerings are tailored to the unique characteristics of the Chinese market [6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The company anticipates a golden era for China's wealth management market over the next 20 years, positioning itself to capitalize on the opportunities presented to joint venture wealth management firms [7].
银华鑫禾拟任基金经理和玮:舍弃锐度 追求长期稳健收益
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-10-20 00:12
Core Viewpoint - The investment philosophy of Yin Hua Fund emphasizes long-term absolute returns, focusing on stable holding experiences for investors rather than maximizing short-term net value gains [1][2]. Investment Style and Strategy - The team led by He Wei integrates absolute return concepts into their relative return-focused public funds, aiming for balanced investment styles that provide excess returns while controlling maximum drawdowns [2][3]. - He Wei's investment framework prioritizes stocks with strong fundamental trends and safety margins, emphasizing price at entry, win rates, potential returns, valuation, and trading crowding [3][4]. Performance Metrics - The Yin Hua Hu Shen Stock Connect Fund, managed by He Wei, achieved a three-year unit net value growth rate of 24.08%, ranking in the top 3% of its category, with an annual excess return of 3-12 percentage points from 2022 to 2024 [3][10]. Market Outlook - The Chinese capital market is viewed as undervalued, with strong fundamentals in manufacturing, technology, and pharmaceuticals, and is expected to benefit from foreign capital inflows in the future [7]. - The A-share market is anticipated to experience volatility due to structural changes, but the long-term outlook remains positive [7][8]. Sector Preferences - The long-term investment value in the non-ferrous metals sector is highlighted, with commodities like gold, copper, and aluminum expected to maintain favorable supply-demand dynamics [8]. - The financial sector, particularly bank stocks and brokerages, is seen as having reasonable valuations and potential for recovery as market conditions improve [8]. New Fund Launch - The upcoming Yin Hua Xin He Mixed Securities Investment Fund will adopt a floating management fee structure, aiming to build a long-term relationship with investors through steady returns [6]. - This new fund will include investments in the Hong Kong stock market, which is perceived to offer attractive opportunities compared to A-shares [6].