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11月经济新动能表现强劲 高技术制造业持续领跑
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-12-15 14:19
虽然11月中国多项宏观经济指标延续放缓态势,但高技术制造业生产和投资增速继续保持领先,新动能 对宏观经济拉动作用明显。 国家统计局12月15日发布的数据显示,11月规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.8%,较10月小幅回落0.1个 百分点,为2024年9月以来新低;社会消费品零售总额同比增长1.3%,回落1.6个百分点,连续6个月放 缓。前11个月,全国固定资产投资(不含农户)同比下降2.6%,降幅比上月扩大0.9个百分点,增速连 续8个月回落。 国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖在当日举行的国新办发布会上表示,从全年情况看,尽管有困难有压力, 但我国经济韧性强,宏观政策支持有力,新动能稳步成长,实现全年预期目标有较好条件。近期主要国 际组织纷纷上调对中国经济增长预期,也表明国际社会对中国经济发展的信心。 付凌晖在发布会上回答第一财经记者提问时谈到,中国已经进入高质量发展阶段,因地制宜发展新质生 产力是推动高质量发展的内在要求和重要着力点。产业高端化、智能化势头向好,传统产业改造提升, 数字经济向上向优,绿色转型赋能发展。 高技术制造业增长较快 11月规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.8%,增速较10月小幅回落0.1个百分点。 ...
政策主导,预计宽幅震荡
Hua Lian Qi Huo· 2025-12-15 09:54
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Overall, the demand side of coking coal and coke may not have much driving force. On the supply side, domestic coal mines are expected to face policy constraints on coal production release in the future, and it is difficult to have a significant increase in supply. The increment of Mongolian coal imports is expected to be an important supplement to domestic production, with significant potential for growth. Coke production capacity is still in an over - supply stage, and coke enterprises' profits are expected to remain under pressure in 2026, generally following coking coal. However, as it is the beginning of the 15th Five - Year Plan, the country's macro - policies are expected to be positive, and the market may bottom out and rebound if the "anti - involution" policy is implemented [8]. Summary by Directory Annual Viewpoint and Strategy - **Supply**: In the first half of 2025, coking coal imports were lower year - on - year, mainly due to high inventories and weak demand. In the second half, Mongolian coal imports rebounded. In 2026, with a cap on domestic coal production, Mongolian coal is expected to be an important supply supplement. China's coke production from January to October 2025 was 419 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. In 2026, coke production may remain flat year - on - year [8]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand is differentiated, with strong plate demand and weak building material demand, weak domestic demand and strong export demand. Steel exports are expected to remain strong in 2026, but domestic demand is still a concern. Real estate investment and new construction data are expected to decline by double - digits year - on - year, and manufacturing investment may also face a slowdown [8]. - **Inventory**: In the first half of 2025, coking coal inventory was highly differentiated between upstream and downstream, with upstream inventory reaching a record high and downstream inventory remaining low. In the second half, inventory transferred from upstream to downstream. Overall, coking coal inventory decreased. Coke inventory in steel mills, ports, and coking plants also decreased, with an average inventory level higher than last year [8]. - **Viewpoint**: The demand for coking coal and coke may lack driving force. Domestic coal production is restricted by policies, and imports mainly depend on Mongolian coal. Coke production capacity is in surplus, and coke enterprises' profits are expected to be under pressure in 2026, generally following coking coal. However, positive macro - policies may lead to a market rebound [8]. - **Strategy**: After the coking coal main contract stabilizes after a pullback, it can be bought in batches, with a reference support level of 900 - 950 yuan/ton [8]. Market Review - **Q1**: Coking coal and coke continued to decline due to oversupply, with prices moving down. Domestic spot prices weakened, and upstream inventory increased due to insufficient downstream demand [14]. - **Q2**: Coking coal and coke remained weak, testing cost support. Global macro - disturbances and high inventory led to price drops, and the supply - demand mismatch persisted [14]. - **Q3**: Coking coal and coke prices rebounded significantly due to tightened supply expectations caused by coal production checks [14]. - **Q4**: Coking coal and coke prices first rose and then fell. Supply tightened in October, but the market sentiment weakened in November due to energy supply guarantee signals [14]. International Situation - **Global economic growth**: Global steel production growth has slowed down, with developed economies recovering weakly. Asian regions led by India are a new growth pole for iron ore demand, but it is difficult to fully offset China's decline [18]. - **Supply country pattern**: Australia, the US, and Canada are major suppliers of high - quality coking coal, but their exports to China are affected by various factors [18]. - **Global coking coal trade flow**: Mongolia and Russia's export increments are being released, and their coking coal imports are important variables that can impact the domestic market [18]. - **"Green premium" institutionalization**: The global carbon pricing system is forcing the steel industry to transform to a low - carbon path, which will affect long - term coking coal demand [18]. Domestic Situation - **Real estate**: In 2025, the new construction area decreased by 20% year - on - year, and the decline in the real estate market reduced the demand elasticity for coking coal and coke [22]. - **Infrastructure**: In 2026, fiscal stimulus for traditional infrastructure will be weaker, and policies will focus on high - strength and special steel fields, with limited impact on coking coal and coke demand [22]. - **Manufacturing**: Exports of automobiles, home appliances, and ships remain stable, but steel mills' profit margins are compressed, and it is difficult to achieve positive growth in crude steel production [22]. - **Coal consumption**: Coal consumption will peak during the 15th Five - Year Plan and then enter a 10 - year plateau. The policy focus will shift from "supply guarantee" to "carbon control + safety" [22]. - **Coal price mechanism**: In 2026, a new mechanism for thermal coal long - term contracts will be implemented, with more market - oriented pricing and a narrower price fluctuation range, which will indirectly provide a valuation anchor for coking coal [22]. Macroeconomic Policies - **High - quality development**: The steel raw material market will build a policy support system around "low - carbon transformation, resource security, and structural optimization" during the 15th Five - Year Plan, and the traditional supply - demand logic is being broken [27]. - **Green and low - carbon policies**: Green and low - carbon policies will be intensified, and the proportion of electric arc furnace steel is expected to increase to 20% - 25% to achieve carbon reduction goals [27]. - **"Anti - involution" and supply - side reform**: The 15th Five - Year Plan will emphasize high - quality development, and policies on coal and other traditional industries will be more restrictive, with tightened coal production capacity and long - term supervision on over - production [27]. Fundamentals - **Industrial chain structure**: Multiple charts show the price trends of coking coal and coke contracts, spreads between contracts, spot prices, inventory levels, import volumes, production rates, and output of related enterprises [33][38][42] - **Inventory**: As of December 12, 2025, the raw coal inventory of 523 sample mines increased slightly compared to the beginning of the year, while the clean coal inventory decreased by 33.36%. Overall, coking coal inventory decreased in 2025. Coke inventory in steel mills, ports, and coking plants also showed a downward trend [59]. - **Imports**: From January to October 2025, coking coal imports decreased by 4.8% year - on - year, with a 1% decrease in Mongolian coal imports. Australian coal imports decreased by 10%, and Russian coal imports increased by 4%. In 2026, Mongolian coal imports are expected to be an important supply supplement [73][77]. - **Production**: From January to October 2025, China's raw coal production was 3.97 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%, and coke production was 419 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. In 2026, coke production is expected to remain flat year - on - year [81][83]. - **Demand**: In 2025, the average daily hot metal production was close to 2.38 million tons per day, a year - on - year increase of nearly 4%. From January to November 2025, steel exports reached 107.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.33%. In 2026, steel exports are expected to remain strong, but domestic demand is still a concern [90]. - **Profit**: The profit of independent coking plants is significantly affected by profit levels. In 2025, the profit per ton of coke decreased year - on - year, and there were only opportunities for repair when coking coal prices decreased or steel mills replenished inventory [104]. Technical Analysis - Technically, the prices of coking coal and coke are in a downward channel, with moving averages in a bearish arrangement and no obvious signs of a stop - fall. It is expected that there will be strong support around 900 yuan/ton on the weekly Bollinger Bands lower rail, and it is necessary to observe whether the coking coal price can stop falling and stabilize around this level [108].
陕西西咸新区沣东新城沣和苑保障房项目:从“有居”到“优居” 绿色低碳赋能美好生活
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-12-15 07:40
"我们在每栋住宅楼的屋顶都铺设了光伏板。"在沣和苑,单栋住宅楼光伏发电系统装机容量约为 3.3kW,年可发电量预计为3465kWh,仅单栋住宅楼的光伏系统年发电量就可满足公共区域照明用电需 求,"进一步压缩社区公共能耗成本,为绿色低碳再助力。" 在社区内,施工团队还构建起了一套完整的海绵城市系统,让社区能像海绵一样呼吸、存蓄并净化雨 水。"这套系统不仅能有效防涝,回收的雨水还可用于绿化灌溉,年均节水量超过千吨。"党琅介绍,通 过透水铺装、雨水花园等设计,沣和苑可实现雨水的"弹性管理",将大部分降水就地消纳和利用,构建 起良性循环的社区微生态。 来源:环球网 12月14日,位于陕西西咸新区沣东新城的沣和苑保障房项目,干热岩钻机轰鸣阵阵,一口地热能探井正 向位于地下2700米的目的层钻进。 "目前,钻机已深入至地下2650米。"沣和苑项目施工员党琅介绍,沣和苑保障房项目采用中深层干热岩 垂直井同轴套管换热系统,通过钻机向地下高温岩层钻孔,借助换热器传导将地下深处的热能导出,再 经过专用连接设备向地面建筑供能,进行热量的循环交换。 "干热岩是天然的'锅炉房',用它供热,'取热'不取水,供暖不冒烟。"党琅介绍,中深层 ...
今天,VC/PE奔赴海南
母基金研究中心· 2025-12-14 10:38
2 0 2 5年1 2月1 4日,第二届海南自贸港创新投资发展论坛暨"百家基金海南行"投资大会于海南 海口隆重举办。本届论坛以"封关启航,资本向南"为主题,由海南省财政厅指导,海南省财金 集团有限公司、银河创新资本管理有限公司主办,海南财金银河私募基金管理有限公司、深圳 市天使投资引导基金管理有限公司、中金资本运营有限公司、海南基金业协会、母基金研究中 心(www. c h i n a -f o f. c om,下同)承办,招商银行股份有限公司海口分行、交通银行股份有限 公司海南省分行、中国银行股份有限公司海南省分行联合承办。 1 2月1 4日上午,主论坛正式开幕。海南省人民政府党组成员、秘书长,海南省财政厅党组书 记、厅长蔡强代表海南省政府向与会嘉宾表示热烈欢迎和衷心感谢。他指出,在海南自贸港全 面封关运作进入最后4天倒计时的关键节点,本届论坛的举办具有重要意义。海南因改革开放 而生,也因改革开放而兴,建设海南自贸港是党中央着眼未来的战略先手棋,彰显了我国扩大 对外开放、推动经济全球化的坚定决心。1 2月1 8日的封关运作,与十一届三中全会召开的历史 时期相呼应,体现了党中央对海南的高度重视与殷切期望,将成 ...
山东港口青岛港2025年货物吞吐量超越7亿吨 比去年突破7亿吨提前15天
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-12-13 13:45
岁末年尾冲刺全年"满堂红"的关键节点,山东港口青岛港(601298)再传捷报:12月8日,随着满载 10612TEU的集装箱船舶"地中海伊娃"轮在前湾港区完成装卸作业,青岛港今年货物吞吐量累计突破7亿 吨,较2024年突破7亿吨提前15天。今年集装箱吞吐量已于11月26日突破3000万标准箱,国际航运枢纽 竞争力指数稳居东北亚之首。 今年以来,青岛港锚定高质量发展目标,坚持"海陆"双向发力,持续织密物流航线网络,新增集装箱航 线20条,航线总数扩容至近240条,覆盖全球180多个国家和地区的700多个港口,对接共建"一带一 路"及RCEP国家的航线占比超过60%,推动"新三样"、高端设备、精密仪器等高附加值货种源源不断驶 向世界各地,成为中国与新兴市场贸易往来的"黄金通道";依托陆向联动,建成54个内陆港、开通86条 海铁联运班列,1-11月份青岛港海铁联运箱量完成262.5万标准箱,同比增长11%,继续保持全国沿海港 口首位。 立足高质量发展大局,青岛港抢抓建设黄金期,持续扩大港口通过能力,今年新开工15个重大项目,新 增码头通过能力1600万吨、堆场面积146万平米、液化烃库容13.2万立方,特别是第二座 ...
融入国家战略和区域经济发展大局全力写好金融“五篇大文章”
■"夯实文化软实力 积极履责显担当"系列专题报道 国海证券党委书记、董事长王海河: 根植于深厚的文化底蕴,中国特色金融文化滋养着金融业的根基与未来,已成为推动行业行稳致远的磅 礴精神力量。国海证券党委书记、董事长王海河日前在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示,在中国特色金 融发展之路上,中国特色金融文化是一股强劲的精神力量,推动金融业在改革发展的过程中坚守初心、 守正创新、履责担当。作为资本市场的重要中介,证券公司践行中国特色金融文化,落实"合规、诚 信、专业、稳健"的行业文化,不仅是自身行稳致远的"压舱石",也是服务实体经济和国家发展战略 的"定盘星"。 ● 本报记者 徐昭 赵中昊 积极响应金融"五篇大文章" 下好战略布局先手棋 "做好金融'五篇大文章',积极发挥功能性作用,服务实体经济和新质生产力发展,是金融机构的责任 和使命"。王海河表示,国海证券积极响应中国证监会《关于资本市场做好金融"五篇大文章"的实施意 见》,系统谋划、全面部署,推动战略规划、组织机制、业务实践与文化建设深度融合,在深耕金 融"五篇大文章"的过程中,重塑价值理念、业务优势,以高质量的金融服务促进自身高质量发展。 就具体举措而言,一是强化 ...
惠城芦洲统筹推进“百千万工程”,打造“山水风光特色镇”
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-12-12 14:54
惠城区芦洲镇,地处惠城区北部、东江中游,全镇面积204平方公里,下辖21个行政村(社区),户籍人 口约3万、常住人口1.7万。这里拥有2.3万亩优质耕地、23万亩茂密林地,59.93%的森林覆盖率让其享 有惠城"后花园"的美誉,坚实的农业基础为发展筑牢根基。 自"百千万工程"实施以来,芦洲镇锚定"山水风光特色镇"定位,以生态优先、绿色发展为导向,统筹推 进典型镇村建设、产业转型升级与民生福祉改善,2024年全镇地区生产总值达12.49亿元,同比增长 3.9%,在高质量发展赛道上跑出加速度,交出了亮眼的阶段性答卷。 作为第三批典型镇培育对象,芦洲镇立足资源禀赋,围绕"山水田园·醉氧芦洲"特色风貌主题,投资约 5000万元推进典型镇培育项目,让圩镇颜值与内涵同步提升。 芦洲镇党委副书记钟鸣雄介绍,自去年起,芦洲镇特邀省建科院(300675)、市规划院等优秀设计团 队,共同研讨优化建设方案,着力打造宜居宜业宜游的美丽圩镇,强化乡镇节点功能,持续提升连城带 村效能。 机制创新为项目推进筑牢保障。芦洲镇建立"每周调度、实地督导、划片定责"三位一体工作推进机制, 每周召开专题会议会商项目进展、破解实施难题,每周六组织部门 ...
青岛住建:历史城区蝶变、保障房供给创新高
Qi Lu Wan Bao· 2025-12-12 13:53
齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹点记者 赵波 从谋划十余年的双山隧道开工建设、胶州湾第二隧道主线掘进超七成,到53个老旧小区改造惠及1.56万 户居民、136个城中村改造让20个村居民喜迁新居;从全国率先推出"好房子"建设标准体系,到配售型 保障房"以需定购"模式获市场认可、首批房源当日售罄……2025年,青岛市住房和城乡建设局深入贯彻 落实青岛市委、市政府决策部署,真心实意惠民生、真招实策稳增长、真抓实干促转型,以扎实的工作 成效回应市民期待,努力让城市发展更有温度,让民生福祉更有保障,交出一份"城市让生活更美好"的 住建答卷。 编者按:2025年青岛市政府部门"向市民报告、听市民意见、请市民评议"活动(即"三民"活动)已经启 动。为更好地倾听民声、尊重民意、顺应民心,充分展示今年以来政府各部门认真贯彻落实市委、市政 府部署要求,扎实做好稳增长、提质效、促改革、惠民生、防风险各项工作取得的新进展新成效,齐鲁 晚报·齐鲁壹点将陆续刊登各部门亮点工作情况。 坚持有机更新、建改并重,城市品质更加彰显 青岛深化全国首批中央财政支持城市更新行动城市建设,保障全市城市工作会议圆满召开,擘画今后一 段时期城市发展蓝图。 一是完善市政路网 ...
汇添富基金:坚定发展主动权益投资 在服务实体经济高质量发展道路上稳步前行
Zhong Zheng Wang· 2025-12-12 12:21
中证报中证网讯(记者王宇露)"十四五"规划即将收官,"十五五"规划蓝图徐徐展开,中国将迈向2035年 远景目标的关键冲刺阶段。站在全面推进中国式现代化的关键节点上,中央经济工作会议系统部署了 2026年经济工作,为未来五年经济发展奠定政策基调,为我国经济高质量发展锚定了目标、指明了方 向,为坚定不移贯彻新发展理念、融入新发展格局增强了战略信心。汇添富基金表示,在中央经济工作 会议精神和《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》等指引下,将牢牢坚持金融报国、金融为民的发展理 念,把功能性放在首要位置,努力将指示精神落到实处。 一是坚持做价值发现的引领者,促进新质生产力发展。持续增进投研核心能力,加强投研团队建设,优 化完善与投研体系和投资方法论,提升与科技创新产业(300832)投资的适配度;提升价值发现和资产 定价能力,引导市场加大对创新龙头企业的支持力度;践行责任投资理念,参与上市公司治理,助力上 市公司提质增效。着力把资源引导至致力于提升股东回报,以及推动科技自立自强的人工智能、先进制 造、医疗健康、绿色低碳等领域的优质企业,形成"科技-产业-金融"良性循环,支持国家创新驱动发展 战略和现代化产业体系建设。 三是 ...
广东建科(301632) - 广东建科:投资者关系活动记录表(2025年12月12日)
2025-12-12 10:44
证券代码:301632 证券简称:广东建科 广东省建筑科学研究院集团股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 答:公司重视科技创新和数字化转型,近三年主营业务研发费 用率呈现逐年上升趋势,主要投入于行业战略性、前沿性领域的研 发,绿色低碳科技研究等方面的研究。截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日,公 编号:2025-021 投资者关系 活动类别 ☑ 特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 □新闻发布会 □路演活动 ☑ 现场参观 □其他 (请文字说明其他活动内容) 参与单位名称及 人员姓名 广州泽恩投资 曹盈盈 松山创业投资 吴德有 深圳中天汇富基金管理有限公司 何佑胜 广东金豆子 马杰辉 深圳诚和昌私募基金投资有限公司 戴九侯 中金资本 刘弦 灏达投资 资香莲 乐盈(珠海)私募证券投资公司 鲍传广 东北证券 吴源恒 广州市摩星岭控股有限公司 董佳宁 广州南杰利私募基金 林小峰 广州瑞民基金 罗小明 广新基金 赖增强 中大情私募基金管理有限公司 刘剑荣 广东凯鼎投资有限公司 甄义勇 华福证券 王二鑫 润生投资 汪江涛 乐盈投资 李俊 时间 2025 年 12 月 12 日(星期五)14:00-16:30 ...