Group 1 - The article highlights that the U.S. imposition of tariffs is a form of unilateralism, protectionism, and economic bullying, which severely impacts the international economic and trade order, dragging down global economic growth and harming the U.S. economy itself [1] - The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook report has downgraded the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, a reduction of 0.5 percentage points from earlier predictions, primarily due to the U.S. government's announcement of tariffs affecting nearly all trade partners [2][3] - The report indicates that the U.S. economic growth rate is expected to slow to 1.8% in 2025, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from previous forecasts, marking the largest downgrade among developed economies [2][3] Group 2 - The IMF predicts that global trade growth will decline from 3.8% last year to 1.7% this year, a drop of more than half, due to the negative impacts of tariffs on the complex global supply chain [3] - The IMF also warns that global public debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to exceed 95% this year, rising by 2.8 percentage points, with potential to reach 117% by 2027, the highest level since World War II [3] Group 3 - A coalition of 12 U.S. states has filed a lawsuit against the federal government, claiming that the tariff policy is illegal and disrupts the constitutional order, leading to economic chaos [4] - The lawsuit argues that the tariffs impose significant tax burdens on families and businesses, with warnings from state attorneys general about potential inflation and economic losses if the tariffs continue [4] Group 4 - Recent data from the University of Michigan shows that the one-year inflation expectation in the U.S. has risen to 6.7%, the highest since 1981, indicating that new tariffs may push consumer prices higher while suppressing economic activity [5] - Polls indicate a decline in support for the U.S. government since the introduction of the tariff policy, with only 40% approval and 59% of the public disapproving of the tariff measures [6] Group 5 - Analysts warn that the U.S. tariff policy could undermine the dollar's status as a safe-haven currency, with potential implications for global financial markets [7] - The report from Boston Consulting Group suggests that the tariffs not only increase costs for U.S. businesses and consumers but also signal a shift towards a new era of trade relations, potentially excluding the U.S. from traditional partnerships [7] Group 6 - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies is expected to significantly suppress trade flows, reduce exports, and weaken economic activity, as stated by the chief economist of the WTO [8] - The IMF calls for stable and mutually beneficial trade arrangements to restore order in trade policies, emphasizing the need for a well-functioning, rules-based trade system for the global economy [8]

明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利周二表示，现在要确定美国总统特朗普的关税政策以及其对通胀和经济 的预期影响，进而判断短期借贷成本需要如何调整，还为时尚早。这一观点得到了他的同事们的广泛认 同，很可能会使美联储在两周后的利率设定会议上维持利率不变。 这位明尼阿波利斯联储主席说，他将密切关注劳动力市场数据，看看目前的不确定性是否有迹象导致企 业缩减规模并裁员。他说，目前还没有迹象表明大规模裁员。 当被问及特朗普向美联储主席鲍威尔施压要求降息的问题时，卡什卡利表示，货币政策的独立性是美国 经济成功的"基石"。他反驳了特朗普及其政府其他官员的说法，即美联储是出于政治原因而做出政策决 定。 卡什卡利指出，在民主党总统奥巴马的第二个任期以及特朗普的第一个任期内，他支持较为宽松的货币 政策；在拜登任期内，他变得较为鹰派；而现在在政策立场上 "可能处于中间派"。 "我从鸽派转变为鹰派，再转变为温和派，这是因为政治原因吗？不是，这是因为经济环境在变化，数 据也在变化。"他说。 卡什卡利在华盛顿举行的美国商会全球峰会上表示："现在就判断利率的走势将会如何还为时过早。" 他表示，虽然仅关税本身不太可能让通胀再次加速，这种说法是"合乎逻 ...

Group 1 - The core argument of the articles revolves around the impact of Trump's tariff policy on the U.S. economy and the global order, highlighting the contradiction between seeking trade surplus and maintaining the dollar's dominance [1][2] - In 2024, the U.S. is projected to have a record trade deficit of $1.21 trillion, with imports totaling $3.3 trillion and exports at $2.1 trillion, indicating a significant imbalance in trade [1] - The article emphasizes that the trade deficit has historically supported the dollar's status, and reducing it could weaken the dollar, suggesting that Trump's approach may not be sustainable [1][2] Group 2 - The recent fluctuations in U.S. financial markets, including a drop in the dollar index and rising bond yields, reflect the chaos and uncertainty stemming from Trump's trade policies [2] - The article argues that the real issue for the U.S. is not trade imbalance but the failure to address the needs of the lower-income population, which has led to a lack of support compared to Europe [2] - In contrast to East Asian countries, which face structural issues of high savings and low consumption, China has the potential to address demand constraints due to its large population and economic scale [3] Group 3 - The article suggests that China should focus on creating a robust domestic demand to support its manufacturing sector, addressing issues such as "involution" in competition and protecting intellectual property rights [3] - It highlights the importance of increasing fiscal support for households and enhancing income through subsidies in education, healthcare, and pensions to stimulate consumption [3] - Additionally, China is diversifying its export markets and increasing overseas investments to promote exports, indicating its unique role in the global production system [4]