Group 1: Gold Price Trends - International gold prices have reached a new historical high, with COMEX gold futures settling at $3546 per ounce as of September 1, marking a 31.74% increase since the beginning of the year [1] - London spot gold and Shanghai Gold Exchange prices are at $3478 per ounce and 794.66 yuan per gram respectively, with year-to-date increases of 29.58% and 25.68% [1] - The average daily increase in London spot gold prices for Q1, Q2, and Q3 (up to September 1) were 0.295%, 0.080%, and 0.09% respectively, indicating a higher average increase in Q3 compared to Q2 [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has increased, with a 87.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [1] - Fed Chair Powell signaled a potential rate cut based on the current labor market conditions and rising stagflation risks [3] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. has remained stable around 4% to 4.2%, reflecting a softening labor supply and demand [4] Group 3: Inflation and Tariff Impact - U.S. inflation rates have shown an upward trend, with CPI and core CPI year-on-year growth rates at 2.7% and 3% respectively as of July 2025, higher than the levels in April [5] - The imposition of tariffs has been identified as a factor hindering the downward trend of inflation in the U.S. [5] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have been raised following political pressures, which may affect market confidence [6]

Economic Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.19%, Nasdaq down 0.32%, and S&P 500 down 0.10% for the week [1] - European markets also fell, with the FTSE 100 down 1.44%, DAX 30 down 1.89%, and CAC 40 down 3.33% [1] - Upcoming economic indicators include the U.S. non-farm payroll data for August, which is expected to show a slight increase in unemployment from 4.2% to 4.3% and non-farm employment growth of 78,000 [3][4] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to release its Beige Book, which will provide insights into the economic conditions across the U.S. [3] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting on September 17 are at 84% [3] Corporate Earnings - Notable corporate earnings reports expected this week include those from companies like Salesforce, Broadcom, HP Enterprise, and Lululemon, as well as Chinese company NIO [4][8] Commodity Market - WTI crude oil prices rose by 0.55% to $64.01 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by 0.58% to $68.12 per barrel, despite both experiencing declines in August [5] - Gold prices saw a significant increase, with COMEX gold futures rising by 2.84% to $3,473.70 per ounce, marking a 5.48% increase for August [5][6] European Economic Indicators - The Eurozone's consumer price index (CPI) is expected to show a stable growth of 2.0% for August, consistent with July [6] - Upcoming data releases include manufacturing and services PMI for several European countries, as well as the Eurozone's unemployment rate and retail trade data [7][8]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Insights - Powell's speech at Jackson Hole provided a clear hint of potential interest rate cuts, causing significant market reactions, with the dollar index dropping as much as 0.94% on August 22[3] - The Fed is facing challenges with inflation risks skewed upwards and employment risks skewed downwards, indicating a need to adjust policy stance[3] - The abandonment of the flexible average inflation targeting framework opens the door for quicker rate cuts if inflation shows signs of rapid decline[4] Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - The U.S. labor market is exhibiting a "curious kind of balance," with both labor supply and demand significantly slowing, which could lead to a rise in unemployment if participation rates do not improve[4] - The upcoming August non-farm payroll data will be crucial for assessing labor market conditions ahead of the September FOMC meeting[4] - Initial jobless claims rose in the third week of August, indicating potential weakness in the labor market, but previous strong data complicates the assessment[4] Group 3: Global Economic Context - Japan's core CPI remained flat at 3.4% in July, suggesting that input inflation may be ending, with future inflation risks leaning towards a decline[26] - The U.S. imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" on Japan is expected to further impact Japan's manufacturing PMI, indicating a deteriorating external demand environment[26] - If U.S. economic data points to effective fiscal expansion and improved employment, a rebound in the already weakened dollar index may be more likely[5]

Group 1 - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference will take place from August 21 to 23 in Wyoming, attracting global investor attention, particularly towards Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech, which is expected to provide insights into future monetary policy directions [1][4] - The theme of this year's conference is "Labor Market Transformation: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy," closely related to recent significant changes in the U.S. labor market, which has shown signs of cooling from May to July [3] - Non-farm payroll data for May and June was revised down by over 250,000, with only 73,000 new jobs added in July, and wage growth slowing from 6% in June 2022 to approximately 3.9% [3] Group 2 - U.S. inflation data has been mixed, with July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing moderate increases, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) surged by 0.9%, the largest monthly increase in over three years, indicating rising input inflation risks [5] - Investors are weighing economic data ahead of Powell's speech, with an approximately 80% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, as major banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have adjusted their forecasts for the first rate cut from December to September [10] - JPMorgan predicts that if the unemployment rate rises to 4.4% or higher in August, the Fed may aggressively cut rates by 50 basis points in September, with expectations of three consecutive 25 basis point cuts in September, October, and December [11]

杰富瑞经济学家托马斯·西蒙斯称，初请数据并未显示美国劳动力市场正在迅速走弱。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that two members opposed the decision to maintain the interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% during the July 31 meeting [1] - Former President Trump has been vocal against the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, expressing dissatisfaction with the current chair, Jerome Powell [2] - The meeting minutes reflect a pessimistic outlook on the U.S. macroeconomic situation, with high inflation preventing the Fed from hastily resuming rate cuts [4] Group 2 - The committee noted a slowdown in economic activity growth in the first half of the year, while the unemployment rate remained low and the labor market was considered robust [3] - However, the August non-farm payroll report showed a surprising increase in the unemployment rate by 0.1 percentage points, with only 73,000 jobs added, contradicting the earlier assessment of a stable labor market [3] - Trump's strategy appears to target Fed officials who support maintaining rates, potentially to intimidate others into favoring rate cuts without changing the Fed chair [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant decline in non-farm employment growth in the U.S., with only 73,000 jobs added in May, and an average of 35,000 jobs over the past three months, contrasting sharply with the Biden administration's average of 168,000 jobs per month during 2024 [1][2][5] - The recent employment data has raised concerns among economists and investors about the potential manipulation of data by the Trump administration, particularly following the dismissal of the BLS director [1][10][11] - The decline in immigration due to Trump's policies is expected to exert downward pressure on labor market growth, with projections suggesting that job growth could slow to as low as 10,000 to 40,000 jobs per month later this year [5][6][8] Group 2 - The Biden administration's immigration policies have contributed to a record job growth of 16.1 million jobs during his term, averaging 336,000 jobs added per month, which is now reversing due to the anticipated decline in immigration [7][9] - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast for non-farm employment growth in 2025 to just 30,000 or fewer jobs per month, attributing this primarily to the decrease in immigration [8] - The potential changes in the BLS's statistical methods under Trump's administration could undermine the credibility of U.S. labor market data, which has been built over decades [10][11]

Group 1 - The Chicago Fed President Goolsbee suggests that the Federal Reserve should not rush to cut interest rates until inflation is fully under control, indicating a divergence in the Fed's decision-making regarding the pace of rate cuts [2] - Daly believes that a 50 basis point rate cut would signal an emergency situation, but she does not feel overly concerned about the current U.S. labor market, suggesting no need for a "catch-up" rate cut [2] - Daly maintains that two rate cuts this year are a reasonable expectation, consistent with her June forecast, but acknowledges that if labor market data shows weakness, further cuts may be appropriate [2] Group 2 - Daly's assessment of the U.S. labor market has shifted from "solid" to "softening," influenced by a significant downward revision in previous months' employment growth data [2] - On inflation prospects, Daly expresses a relatively optimistic view, noting that the response of commodity inflation to higher tariffs has been mild, indicating reduced risks of severe psychological impacts from price surges [2] - Companies have found ways to absorb tariff costs rather than passing them on to consumers, likening this process to a "small loophole" where costs are distributed throughout the supply chain instead of causing widespread price shocks [3]

Employment Data Revision - Since 2025, U.S. non-farm employment data has been revised down by a total of 461,000 jobs, indicating a more significant weakness in the labor market than initially reported[2] - Historical patterns show that significant downward revisions in non-farm data often precede economic slowdowns, as seen during the 2001 internet bubble and the 2008 financial crisis[3] - The downward trend in non-farm data has been consistent over the past three years, with revisions of 546,000, 577,000, and 461,000 jobs respectively[3] Labor Market Indicators - Job vacancies have decreased from a peak of 12.134 million in March 2022 to 7.437 million by June 2025, a decline of nearly 40%[10] - The unemployment rate has risen from 3.5% in late 2023 to 4.2% by July 2025, reflecting a gradual but persistent upward trend[10] - Initial claims for unemployment benefits have increased from around 200,000 in early 2023 to 250,000 by June 2025, indicating a rise in layoffs[10] Market Expectations and Federal Reserve Policy - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have shifted significantly, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September rising from 38% to 80% within a few days[13] - The likelihood of cumulative rate cuts of 50 to 75 basis points by the end of the year has increased from less than 8% to 53.1%[13] - The focus of market speculation has transitioned from "whether to cut rates" to "how much to cut" as labor market data continues to weaken[13]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year, citing recent weak labor market data as a key factor [3][5] - Bowman previously supported maintaining interest rates until June but voted against the decision in July, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [3] - She urges other policymakers to initiate rate cuts at the September Federal Reserve meeting to prevent further deterioration in the labor market [5] Group 2 - The U.S. labor market shows signs of cooling, with non-farm employment increasing by only 73,000 in July, below expectations, and the unemployment rate rising from 4.1% to 4.2% [6][8] - Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise by 0.3% in July, compared to a 0.2% increase in June, indicating potential inflationary pressures from higher tariffs [7] - Higher tariffs are beginning to affect consumer prices in categories such as household goods and entertainment, although core service inflation remains moderate [7][8]