The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose slightly last week but remained well below expectations, reinforcing signs that the US labour market continues to expand at a steady, if subdued, pace. ...

ATFX汇评：美联储2026年首份褐皮书发布，内容中性偏乐观。褐皮书中提到：在12个联邦储备区中，8个经济活动以略有或温和的速度增长，其中3个 地区报告变化不大，1个地区报告略有下降。上一份褐皮书（2025年11月末发布）中提到：自上次报告以来，经济活动几乎没有变化，两个地区温和下 滑，一个地区温和增长。 比较两份褐皮书内容看，2025年11月末至本月上旬，美国的宏观经济有明显的复苏迹象。12个储备区中8个区都实现增长，这本身就意味着美国经济正在 从10~11月份的政府停摆阴影中恢复过来。经济恢复后，美联储降息的紧迫性会有所降低，逻辑上利空美元指数。 特朗普激进的移民政策和人工智能普及后对基础工作岗位的替代，是导致美国劳动力市场在2025年5月份后断崖式下降的根本原因。这两个因素的影响性 彻底消失之前，美国的就业市场难言乐观。不过，能够保持一段时间的"基本不变"，对于本就糟糕的局面来说，算是好消息。 ▲ATFX图 通胀方面，企业预计价格上涨有所放缓，但价格将保持高位。 通胀数据是制约美联储降息的关键因素。一旦降息幅度过大，商品需要迅速升高，美国的 物价指数将重新进入失控局面。历史数据看，美国的通胀持续下降的概 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Goldman Sachs has postponed its expectation for the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut from March 2026 to June 2026, anticipating rate cuts of 25 basis points in both June and September [1] - The analysis indicates that despite significant progress in inflation, the Fed may act cautiously due to one-time price boosts from tariffs, and the labor market, while stabilizing, still faces risks of further weakness [1] - The possibility of a rate cut in January 2026 has been virtually eliminated due to an unexpected drop in the U.S. unemployment rate, leading to a significant cooling of market expectations for easing [2] Group 2: Employment and Labor Market - Morgan McKinley's report shows a 12% year-on-year increase in job vacancies in the UK financial services sector by 2025, driven by a surge in demand for skills related to artificial intelligence, regulatory compliance, and data reporting [1] - Despite some weakening indicators, overall employment data in the U.S. remains resilient, suggesting that immediate monetary policy intervention is not urgent [2] - Approximately 40% of homes in the U.S. are mortgage-free, with rising home prices attributed more to soaring construction and labor costs than to interest rate factors [3] Group 3: Investment Trends and Market Dynamics - JPMorgan highlights a massive investment surge in AI infrastructure, estimating total investments to reach between $5 trillion and $7 trillion, with the four major U.S. cloud providers expected to invest $480 billion by 2026 [3] - The phenomenon of "locked-in" homeowners with mortgage rates below 4% continues to constrain housing market liquidity, with over half of U.S. homeowners unwilling to sell regardless of interest rates [3]

Employment Data - In December 2025, the U.S. added 50,000 non-farm jobs, which was below the market expectation of 65,000 and a decrease from the revised November figure of 64,000[3][15] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, which was lower than market expectations, indicating a marginal improvement in the labor market[5][20] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.8% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations[3][15] Labor Market Trends - The labor force participation rate remained stable at approximately 62.4%, while the unemployment rate decreased, suggesting a slight recovery in the labor market[5][20] - Permanent unemployment and first-time job seekers increased, while re-employment and temporary job seekers decreased, indicating a preference for hiring experienced workers[24][20] - Job openings in November were 7.146 million, down by approximately 303,000 from October, reflecting a slight easing in labor market tightness[6][38] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach regarding interest rate cuts, having already reduced rates by 75 basis points in 2025[7][46] - The Fed's decision to lower rates in December was influenced by rising unemployment risks, but the recent decline in unemployment may lead to a period of stable rates[7][46] - The Fed is expected to consider 1-2 additional rate cuts in 2026, primarily in the second half of the year[9][50]

新华社纽约1月9日电（记者刘亚南）美国劳工部9日公布的数据显示，2025年12月美国新增非农就业岗 位低于预期，且此前两个月数据均被下调，显示美国劳动力市场持续走软。 ...

【导读】美联储本月降息的可能性几乎为零 来源：中国基金报 记者 泰勒 大家好，今晚关注一下美国最新的非农数据，将影响美联储的降息路径。 1月9日晚间，美国劳工统计局（BLS）公布的数据显示，去年12月非农就业人数增加5万人；此前两个 月的数据被下修。失业率小幅降至4.4%，在创纪录的政府长期停摆结束后回落趋稳。 这些数据为美国劳动力市场在去年全年逐步降温的一年画上句号。正因就业市场降温，美联储在2025年 末连续三次降息。尽管从招聘强度看，2025年是自2009年以来最疲弱的年份之一，但雇主整体上也基本 避免了大规模裁员。 去年12月数据也显示，劳动力市场在年末仍较脆弱，招聘前景依旧谨慎。经济学家预计，新的一年工作 机会仍将有限、薪资涨幅继续降温，可能会加剧选民对"生活负担能力"的担忧，并在今年中期选举前放 大这一议题。 数据显示，去年12月非农就业人数经季节性调整后增加5万人，低于经下修后的11月5.6万人，也不及预 期的7.3万人。与此同时，失业率降至4.4%，而市场原本预计为4.5%。 此外，前几个月的数据修订也把总量下调。11月非农就业人数下修8000人；10月的就业减少幅度比最初 报告更大，目前为减 ...

格隆汇1月9日丨Principal资产管理公司的首席全球策略师西玛·沙赫表示，虽然目前很难说美国劳动力市 场已经崩溃，但目前的情况仍远未明朗。工资增长低于预期，此前几个月的数据也被下调，这使得三个 月的平均增长跌入负值区间。虽然劳动力供应趋紧或许能解释部分原因，但持续的失业情况很难让人感 到乐观。美国经济可能需要美联储提供更多的支持——但并非立即提供。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that while the U.S. labor market is experiencing a slowdown in hiring and an increase in layoffs, the most severe phase of economic slowdown may have passed, pending confirmation from the upcoming December employment report [1][2] - A senior economist from Bank of America noted that although the labor market has not fully recovered, data suggests that the worst phase may be over, but the impact of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history has significantly affected the employment data for October and November [1] - Another economist focused on financial markets believes that the December employment report will provide a clearer understanding of the economic situation and is expected to reflect actual conditions better than November's data, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics' data collection processes return to normal [1] Group 2 - Analysis indicates that the U.S. labor market is undergoing a mild cooling process amid sustained high interest rates and rising corporate cost pressures [2] - If the December data shows stable unemployment, slowing wage growth, but no significant decline in employment numbers, it could support the "soft landing" narrative and influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path in the first half of 2026 [2] - The December employment report is widely viewed as a key indicator for assessing the resilience of the U.S. economy, and its release may reshape investor expectations regarding growth, inflation, and interest rates [2]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report for December is significant as it is the first complete month unaffected by the government shutdown, with expectations for stable employment figures [1][9]. Employment Data - The expected change in non-farm employment for December is around 60,000, with a previous value of 64,000, indicating a stable outlook [1][9]. - The unemployment rate for December is anticipated to be 4.5%, slightly down from the previous 4.6%, reflecting a stable labor market [1][9]. Market Expectations - The stability in employment expectations is attributed to the absence of government shutdowns in December, unlike the previous months [1][9]. - The ADP employment data, which serves as a precursor to the non-farm payroll report, showed a positive shift from a previous value of -29,000 to a current value of 41,000, suggesting a potential positive trend in the upcoming non-farm report [3][9]. Dollar Index Analysis - The dollar index is showing signs of a potential breakout from its current mid-term consolidation range, having started a rebound since December 24 [6][12]. - The established trading range for the dollar index is between 96.34 and 100.23, with the latest upward movement facing resistance near the 100-point mark [7][12].

市场普遍预计，美国 12 月新增非农就业岗位规模约为 6 万个，失业率或由 4.6% 小幅回落至 4.5%。该 数据被视为衡量美国劳动力市场韧性的关键窗口，也将为美联储后续政策节奏提供新的参考依据。目前 利率市场仍认为年内存在进一步降息空间，但节奏与时点高度依赖后续数据表现。在非农结果明朗之 前，资产定价整体偏向防御思路，区间交易特征较为明显。 除宏观数据外，地缘政治局势依然是影响市场风险偏好的重要背景因素。围绕能源、贸易以及地区安全 的多重摩擦，使避险需求在结构层面持续存在。尽管相关不确定性尚未在短期内引发剧烈波动，但对黄 金等避险资产形成中长期托底，对市场情绪构成支撑。 UNforex 1 月 9 日讯（分析师 Simon）在关键宏观数据发布窗口临近之际，全球市场整体进入降速运行 状态。美元维持本周以来的强势格局，主要资产价格更多围绕既有区间整理，黄金则在高位震荡中暂未 给出明确方向信号。随着美国 12 月非农就业报告即将公布，市场对美联储政策路径的重新定价明显升 温，观望情绪同步抬升。 周五欧洲时段开盘前，黄金价格围绕 4470 美元上方运行，盘中短暂回落后迅速获得买盘承接，整体仍 处于近期形成的震荡区 ...