Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is crucial, with an overall inflation rate expected to rise to 2.5%, which may provide a much-needed boost to the U.S. dollar [1] Group 1 - The market currently holds an optimistic view regarding inflation risks stemming from tariffs, indicating a potential asymmetric reaction to upward surprises in inflation data [1] - A rise in CPI could lead to a stronger performance of the U.S. dollar, particularly against the Swiss franc [1]

金十数据6月11日讯，法巴银行表示，尽管美国5月核心通胀可能创下2023年第二季度以来最大环比涨 幅，但更显著的价格上行压力预计将在6-7月显现。关税导致的价格上涨通常在关税实施两到三个月后 出现。然而，与关税相关的价格变化的时间和影响的更广泛的不确定性给前景带来了压力。法巴银行高 级美国经济学家Andy Schneider表示，特朗普政府摇摆不定的关税实施策略，连同政策时效、形式及持 续期的不确定性，可能促使企业采取战略观望的定价策略。这可能会推迟关税引发的通胀，并最终导致 更混乱、更持久的反应。 法巴银行前瞻美国CPI：关税冲击波或在6-7月集中显现 ...

今晚美国CPI重磅登场，黄金要出方向了？期市机会在哪？期货资深研究员Leo将分析热门品种行情， 分享期货盯盘神器的订单流、量价分布、资金炸弹实战案例，手把手教你捕捉交易机会。立即进入直播 间。 相关链接 期货盯盘神器正在直播 ...

金十数据整理：美国4月CPI报告看点一览 1. 通胀率降至近年新低——整体CPI年率降至2.3%，核心CPI年率持平于2.8%。两项指标均创下2021年 春季通胀全面爆发以来的最低增速。 5. 市场对数据反应温和——CPI数据公布后，现货黄金小幅走高后回落，美债延续涨势但波幅有限；美 股三大股指开盘涨跌不一，此后持续震荡走高，纳指涨逾1%。 2. 月率涨幅低于预期——整体CPI月率及核心CPI月率均上涨0.2%，低于市场预期的0.3%。与往常一 样，居住成本涨幅占整体月率的一半以上；家居用品、医疗护理及车险价格则推动了核心月率上涨。 3. 关税影响初现但尚不明显——家居用品和音响设备价格飙升8.8%（创下有史以来最大单月涨幅）或 初步反映关税影响，但经济学家表示全面影响仍待观察，后续数据或能更明显地反映出关税影响。 4. 食品与能源价格走势分化——美国4月杂货价格下降0.4%，其中鸡蛋价格暴跌12.7%，创1984年以来 最大跌幅。这印证了特朗普的部分说法，但能源成本上涨0.7%与其主张相悖。经季调后汽油价格微 降，而天然气价格大幅跳涨。 ...

亚欧盘黄金分析中 市场聚焦美国CPI，能否助力金价向上补缺口收复失地？金十研究员高阳正在直播分析，点击进入直播 间 相关链接 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Wells Fargo economists predict that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April will rise by 0.2% after a surprising decline of 0.1% in March, leading to an annual CPI rate of 2.3%, the lowest in four years [1] - Deutsche Bank expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25-4.50% and emphasizes the need to observe the impact of recently implemented trade policies on economic growth and inflation [3] - UBS Wealth Management highlights that concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve could significantly damage the dollar's safe-haven status, with currencies like the yen and Swiss franc benefiting in the current environment [2] Group 2: Market Trends and Asset Allocation - Analysts at Societe Generale note a trend of investors shifting from U.S. assets to European assets, although this transition may take time to fully materialize [4] - Bank of America indicates that the recent surge in interest in European markets does not necessarily signal a structural shift, as many institutional investors remain cautious about large-scale capital transfers from the U.S. [5] - Citic Securities maintains a preference for gold over copper and oil in the commodities market, citing OPEC+'s unexpected production increase as a factor that may lead to a supply surplus in the oil market [6][5] Group 3: Commodity Price Forecasts - KPMG has revised its Brent crude oil price forecast for the end of the year down from $70 to $60 per barrel, reflecting improved global oil supply conditions [6] - Barclays has postponed its forecast for the next Bank of Japan interest rate hike to January 2026, adjusting its final rate prediction down to 1.00% [7] Group 4: Domestic Market Insights - Galaxy Securities reports a significant increase in global gold ETF inflows in Q1 2025, with net purchases by central banks remaining strong, supporting the long-term bullish outlook for gold prices [8] - The automotive market in China is expected to see a rebound in sales, driven by the release of new models and the end of consumer hesitation following the Shanghai Auto Show [8]

Inflation Data Summary - The overall CPI for March in the U.S. was weaker than expected, with a month-on-month change of -0.05% compared to February's 0.22%[1] - Core CPI month-on-month decreased from 0.23% in February to 0.06%, below the Bloomberg consensus expectation of 0.3%[1] - Year-on-year core CPI was reported at 2.8%, lower than the expected 3.0%[1] Market Reactions - Despite the significant cooling of inflation in March, market reactions were muted due to ongoing tariff impacts, with little change in interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve[3] - Long-term yields continued to rise, and U.S. stock markets experienced a decline after opening[1] Tariff Impact - Tariffs remain a core variable influencing market and Federal Reserve decisions, with uncertainty surrounding their effects on growth and inflation data[3] - The Richmond Fed President indicated that the impact of tariffs on domestic inflation may not be fully realized until June[3] Core CPI Components - Most components of core CPI showed a cooling trend, particularly in volatile categories like school accommodations and transportation services, which contributed significantly to the inflation decline[1] - The core services excluding housing saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.06%, indicating a negative growth trend[6] Specific Item Changes - Energy prices saw a significant month-on-month decline of 2.39%, while food prices increased by 0.44%[7] - The core goods category turned negative with a month-on-month change of -0.09%, reflecting a slowdown in previously rising furniture and clothing prices[6]