海外市场点评 11 月美国 CPI：能否扭转降息定价？ [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：林彦 研究助理：武朔 执业证书：S0590525110006 执业证书：S0590525110007 执业证书：S0590125110064 邮箱：taochuan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：linyan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：wushuo@glms.com.cn 在降息预期大幅放缓的背景下，年内最后一份通胀数据能否扭转当前的降息定 价？其中，3%可能是一个重要的心理关口。值得期待的是，如果 CPI 同比重回 3%以下，可能会一定程度上提振市场风险偏好，并为年末可能的美股"圣诞行情" 打开空间；相反，如果 CPI 超预期上行，则将会进一步锁定美联储的"鹰"派立 场。 不过我们认为，本次通胀数据对市场的实际影响或相对有限，主要原因在于： 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 2025 年 12 月 18 日 一方面，数据本身的质量问题依然值得担忧。由于政府长达 43 天关门的影响，10 月通胀数据以及 11 月环比数据缺失，可供市场解读的信息有 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by a cumulative 0.204% over two months in November, indicating a trend in inflation [1] - The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by a cumulative 0.159% over the same two-month period, suggesting underlying inflation pressures [1]

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 0.2% from September to November 2025, with a year-over-year increase of 2.7% as of November [1][6] - The CPI excluding food and energy also rose by 0.2% over the same two-month period, with a year-over-year increase of 2.6% [1][5] Inflation Trends - The overall CPI-U for the past 12 months was reported at 324.122, reflecting a 2.7% increase [6] - The CPI for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI-W) also saw a 2.7% increase, with an index level of 317.414 [6] - The chained CPI (C-CPI-U) increased by 2.6% over the past year [7] Food Prices - The food index rose by 2.6% over the past year, with the index for food at home increasing by 1.9% [3] - Specific categories such as meat, poultry, fish, and eggs saw a 4.7% increase, while dairy products decreased by 1.6% [3] Energy Prices - The energy index increased by 4.2% over the past year, with gasoline prices rising by 0.9% and fuel oil by 11.3% [4] - Electricity and natural gas prices also saw significant increases of 6.9% and 9.1%, respectively [4] Excluding Food and Energy - The index excluding food and energy saw a 2.6% increase over the past year, with notable increases in housing (3.0%) and medical care (2.9%) [5] - Other categories such as household furnishings and operations increased by 4.6%, while used cars and trucks rose by 3.6% [5] Data Collection Issues - Due to a government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics was unable to collect data for October 2025, leading to reliance on non-survey data for some indices [2]

周四(12月18日)市场将迎来关键的美国CPI数据，市场预期整体通胀同比 3.0%，核心通胀同比 3.0%。尽管通胀仍高于目标水平，但美联储对就业市场的担 忧更为迫切，这指向 2026 年可能会有更多降息空间。 尽管通胀长期高于目标水平，但美联储对就业市场的担忧更为紧迫。因此，市场目前定价显示，美联储在明年 1 月底举行的年内首次会议上再次降息的概 率约为 25%。 美国CPI报告何时公布？ 美国11月CPI报告将于12月18日（周四）美东时间8:30（北京时间21:30/GMT13:30）公布。 美国CPI报告的市场预期是什么？ 交易员和经济学家预计，整体CPI与核心CPI（剔除食品和能源）同比均为3.0%。如果这一结果兑现，将与9月通胀报告中显示的价格压力水平一致（由于 美国政府停摆，10月CPI报告将不会发布）。 美国CPI前瞻 正如美联储主席鲍威尔在最近几次新闻发布会上所指出的那样，美联储当前正处于一个"进退两难"的境地：一方面就业市场正在走弱，另一方面通胀却依 然顽固地高于目标水平。本周公布的 CPI 报告，可能会让这一局面更加复杂。 总体来看，美国消费者通胀向美联储 2% 目标回落的进程，已经停滞 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Labor Statistics Bureau may choose not to publish the month-over-month CPI data for November due to data collection issues caused by the recent government shutdown, focusing instead on year-over-year data [1] - Alternatively, the Bureau might provide only subcategory indices for November, allowing market participants to calculate changes based on September data in the absence of October data [1] - Overall, inflation is expected to show signs of easing price pressures, and unless there are significant surprises in inflation developments, a more moderate market reaction is anticipated [1] Group 2 - The next expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is projected for June of next year, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] - There is no urgency to price in potentially flawed data, as there are several months before clarity is achieved in the economic outlook [1]

美国白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特：如果沃什出任美联储主席，希望他能（在利率政策问题 上）与总统特朗普对话。经济数据表明，美国CPI朝着美联储2%目标靠拢。美联储的职责是保持独立。 我们不会有10月家庭（就业）调查。 ...

Inflation Data - The U.S. September CPI year-on-year is 3.0%, lower than the expected 3.1% and previous 2.9%[3] - The month-on-month CPI is 0.3%, matching the expected and previous values of 0.4%[3] - Core CPI year-on-year is also 3.0%, below the expected 3.1% and the previous 3.1%[3] Market Reactions - The lower-than-expected CPI data has increased market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[3] - Following the data release, U.S. stock indices rose, while U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar saw slight increases[3] Energy and Food Prices - Energy prices rose significantly, with a month-on-month increase of 1.5%, up from 0.7% in the previous month[4] - Gasoline prices surged by 4.1%, contributing approximately one-third to the overall CPI increase[4] - Food CPI month-on-month decreased to 0.2%, down from 0.5% in the previous month, indicating a weakening impact from tariffs[4] Core Components - Core goods prices showed slight fluctuations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, down from 0.3%[5] - Used car prices fell significantly by 0.4%, while new car prices increased by 0.2%[5] - Housing prices remained stable, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, down from 0.4%[5] Economic Outlook - The moderate inflation performance creates conditions for the Federal Reserve to consider easing monetary policy[5] - Upcoming economic indicators to watch include the FOMC meeting on October 29 and the Q3 GDP release on October 30[5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from 招银国际 indicates that the U.S. CPI in September showed a slight recovery year-on-year, but it was below market expectations. The core CPI experienced a slowdown month-on-month, primarily due to a drop in used car prices, while prices of imported goods rebounded significantly, reflecting ongoing tariff effects [1]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The inflation rebound was less than anticipated, leading the Federal Reserve to focus more on employment risks, with expectations of a potential rate cut in October or December, targeting a year-end federal funds rate of 3.75%-4% [1]. - The October CPI is likely to be suspended, and based on historical data from 2013, the first CPI data after a long hiatus may show significant deviations due to limited sample data, increasing uncertainty regarding the timing of rate cuts [1]. Banking System and Future Projections - As the banking system's reserves approach a reasonable level of abundance, the Federal Reserve may soon halt quantitative tightening (QT) [1]. - Looking ahead to next year, as economic growth stabilizes and inflation declines, the Federal Reserve may implement two additional rate cuts, with a year-end target for the federal funds rate of 3.25%-3.5% [1].

Group 1 - The central parity rate of the RMB against the USD is reported at 7.0881, an increase of 47 points from the previous day [2] - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 98.3%, with a 3.3% chance of maintaining the current rate [4] - According to CICC, the Federal Reserve is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points in both October and December, supported by moderate inflation data [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2] Core Viewpoints - US CPI in September was lower than market expectations, but the stagflation risk remains unresolved. The cooling of the US real - estate market has curbed inflation, but price increases in non - rent services and core commodities are still high. Retailer inventory is tight, and an aggressive trade policy may exacerbate inflation risks [2] - The 10 - year US Treasury yield is oscillating around the 4% mark. The outcome of the US Supreme Court's tariff case and the resolution of the US government "shutdown" affect the US Treasury market. Caution should be exercised when the 10 - year yield is below 4% [2] - The price index of edible agricultural products has rebounded. There are changes in prices of various commodities such as oil, metals, and building materials. The average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities from October 1 - 21, 2025, decreased compared to the same period in 2024 [2] Summary by Related Catalogs High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - The report shows various charts comparing high - frequency data with important macro - indicators such as industrial added value, PPI, CPI, and export volume, including copper prices, steel production, and commodity price indices [8][23][29] US and European Important High - frequency Indicators - Charts display US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, unemployment rates, same - store sales growth, PCE, and financial conditions indexes, as well as the implied prospects of interest rate hikes/cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank [96][98][105] High - frequency Data Seasonal Trends - Seasonal trends of high - frequency data are presented, including data on steel production, production material price indices, and commodity price indices [107][113][116] High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The report shows the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [160][164][167]