Inflation Data - The November CPI in the U.S. increased by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.1%[2] - The core CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year, significantly below the expected 3%, marking the lowest level since March 2021[2] - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.2%, down from the previous value of 0.3%[2] Data Collection Issues - Data collection for CPI was disrupted due to a government shutdown, leading to limited reference data for October and November[2] - The Labor Bureau used September data as a base for October due to the lack of survey data, raising concerns about data comparability[2] - The collection window for November data was extended, but this change still affects the reliability of the data[2] Market Expectations - Despite the lower inflation figures, market expectations for interest rate cuts remain largely unchanged, with a 72.3% probability of no rate change in January 2026[2] - The probability of a rate cut in March 2026 remains below 50%, indicating market skepticism about the inflation data[2] Geopolitical and Economic Risks - Potential escalation in U.S.-China tensions could significantly impact foreign trade and financial markets[5] - Geopolitical crises, such as the Israel-Palestine or Russia-Ukraine conflicts, may lead to increased global risk aversion and market volatility[5] - A downturn in the U.S. economy could exert additional pressure on the global economy, affecting trade and financial markets[5]

Group 1 - The current spot gold price is trading around $4,311.49, with a latest report of $4,324.29 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.16% [1] - The highest price reached was $4,336.33 per ounce, while the lowest was $4,308.59 per ounce, indicating a bearish short-term trend for gold [1] - The CPI report for November shows that core inflation in the U.S. has dropped to a four-year low, but its accuracy is questioned due to data collection issues caused by a government shutdown [2] Group 2 - The Labor Statistics Bureau used a "carryover fill" method for key housing price indicators, which may have led to anomalies in the housing data [2] - Despite the concerns, some economists believe inflation is cooling down, although not as significantly as the report suggests, advising caution for investors interpreting the data [2] - The gold price has been consolidating at high levels, forming a doji candlestick pattern for five consecutive trading days, indicating insufficient upward momentum to break previous highs [3]

Core Insights - The gold market is currently experiencing slight adjustments while maintaining high levels, with international gold prices showing a minor retreat and domestic prices fluctuating within a narrow range, indicating increased divergence between bulls and bears [1][1] - The fundamental support for gold prices is bolstered by the dual benefits of the Federal Reserve's "rate cuts + balance sheet expansion," establishing a solid foundation for long-term price strength despite short-term technical overbought conditions and profit-taking pressures [1][1] - The European Union has imposed sanctions on 41 vessels of Russia's "shadow fleet," while the UK has added 24 more entities to its sanctions list, intensifying economic pressure on Russia [1] - The U.S. core CPI for November recorded a year-on-year rate of 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021, indicating a further easing of inflationary pressures, with Federal Reserve officials expressing cautious optimism regarding the data but maintaining a conservative stance on "preemptive rate cuts" [1][1] Market Dynamics - Investors are advised to focus on the upcoming U.S. GDP and PCE data to gauge potential impacts on market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies, which may provide new driving factors for short-term gold price fluctuations [2] - The current London gold market remains in a high-level consolidation phase, with an overall strong pattern suggesting a preference for a bullish approach; however, increased uncertainty necessitates caution [3] - Following several days of high-level consolidation, gold may be approaching a new directional choice, with potential for a breakout from the existing oscillation pattern, although there are short-term downward risks following a recent peak [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article indicates that while the November CPI data marginally raises expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, the Fed may pause to observe due to significant noise in inflation and labor data [1] Group 1: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The impact of tariffs on inflation is relatively mild, as there has been no further increase in tariff rates and the transmission of tariffs to inflation shows no significant lag [1] - The risk of high inflation in the U.S. is manageable, but the decline in November inflation may be exaggerated by disruptive factors [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Actions - The upcoming December non-farm payroll and CPI data, which are less affected by government shutdowns, will provide more reliable information about the economy before the January meeting [1] - The Federal Reserve is currently in an observation period and is expected to pause rate cuts in January, with potential cuts of 1-2 times in the second half of next year after the new Fed chair takes office [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching $4328.39 per ounce, up 0.61%, with a high of $4331.20 and a low of $4300.39 [1] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 64,000 jobs, exceeding the economist's expectation of 50,000, indicating a strong rebound from the previous month's significant decline [1] - Despite the job growth, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest level since September 2021, attributed to technical factors related to the end of a government shutdown [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Developments - Ukrainian President Zelensky visited the Netherlands and announced that the Ukrainian negotiation team would visit the U.S. soon to discuss plans to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict [2] - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in January 2024 is 24.4%, with a 75.6% chance of maintaining current rates [2] - Analysts suggest that investors should closely monitor upcoming inflation data and Federal Reserve actions, as low rates and global uncertainty are expected to support gold's upward potential [2] Group 3: Technical Market Insights - The gold market opened at $4306.4, briefly rose to $4318.2, then fell to a low of $4271.5 before rebounding due to non-farm data, reaching a high of $4335.1 [3] - The daily closing price was $4301.7, forming a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, indicating potential consolidation within a range [3] - Current trading strategies suggest monitoring specific support and resistance levels, with targets set for $4290, $4280, and $4270 [3]

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of critical economic data, including the October CPI, which is essential for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [1][2] - The shutdown began on October 1 due to a failure to reach an agreement on a temporary spending bill between the Republican and Democratic parties, and it officially ended on November 12 when President Trump signed a temporary funding bill [1] - During the shutdown, the release of September and October non-farm employment data was also delayed, and the September CPI data was released nearly 10 days late [2] Economic Data Impact - The October CPI data, which typically reflects inflation trends for the previous month, was expected to be crucial for economic analysis but may never be published due to the shutdown [1] - The September CPI showed a year-over-year increase of 3%, which was below market expectations of 3.1%, and the previous value was 2.9% [2] - The core CPI for September also rose by 3% year-over-year, again falling short of the anticipated 3.1% [2]

Core Insights - The U.S. government is experiencing a prolonged shutdown, leading to a halt in the release of key economic data, which complicates the Federal Reserve's decision-making process for the upcoming December meeting [1][2] - The October CPI report, originally scheduled for release next week, is now in jeopardy, with the Labor Statistics Bureau potentially abandoning its publication altogether [1][2] - The absence of official inflation and employment data will prolong and complicate the debate within the Federal Reserve regarding the necessity of another rate cut in December [1][2] Data Vacuum and Decision-Making Challenges - The current situation poses significant challenges for the Federal Reserve, which relies heavily on data for decision-making [2] - The lack of recent employment reports and key inflation data is undermining the foundation of policy-making [2] - The absence of official data may strengthen the position of FOMC members concerned about the risk of inflation accelerating again, potentially leading to a decision to maintain interest rates [2] Alternative Indicators - During this period of missing official data, some private sector employment reports are helping to fill the gaps, but alternative inflation indicators are harder to obtain and less comprehensive [4] - The Cleveland Fed's "nowcast" model suggests that the year-on-year increase in October CPI may be similar to the lower-than-expected 3% in September [5] - However, these alternative indicators cannot fully replace the authority of official reports, and the absence of timely data increases decision-making costs [5] Future Scenarios and Implications - The Federal Reserve's final decision in December will heavily depend on when the government shutdown ends and how quickly economic data can catch up [6] - Various scenarios have been proposed regarding the potential impact of data recovery on policy decisions, including the release of outdated employment reports [6][7] - If the government reopens by the end of November, the market may see the September employment report before the December meeting, but it may not be sufficient to convince the Fed to pause rate cuts [6] - If both September and October employment reports are released, and the unemployment rate remains stable at 4.3%, a pause in rate cuts becomes a possible option [7] - In an ideal scenario where three complete employment reports are available, the decision will hinge on the unemployment rate, with specific thresholds influencing the Fed's actions [7]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% - 4.00%, marking the second rate cut of the year [1] - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low as of August [1] - The Federal Reserve is committed to supporting maximum employment and restoring inflation to the 2% target [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 3% year-over-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September, below the market expectation of 3.1% [2] - The core CPI also rose by 3% year-over-year, matching the previous value but below market expectations [2] - The ADP reported a decrease of 32,000 jobs in the private sector for September, the largest decline since March 2023, significantly below the expected increase of 50,000 jobs [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve plans to complete its total securities holdings reduction by December 1, after which the principal repayments from mortgage-backed securities will be reinvested in short-term Treasury bonds [3] - A majority of the Federal Open Market Committee members voted in favor of the 25 basis point rate cut, while two members had differing opinions on the extent of the cut [3] Group 4 - The last Federal Reserve meeting of the year is scheduled for December 9-10 [4]

Macro News - The recent China-U.S. trade talks led by Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen resulted in constructive discussions on key economic issues, including maritime logistics, shipbuilding industry measures, and agricultural trade [1] - The U.S. September CPI data came in below expectations, with the annual rate at 3% compared to the expected 3.10%, which has led traders to bet on two more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] Institutional Views - The better-than-expected U.S. CPI data has cleared the way for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, supporting precious metal prices [2] - The recent China-U.S. trade negotiations have improved market risk sentiment, which has exerted some downward pressure on precious metals [2] - The upcoming "super central bank week" is expected to increase market volatility, with the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan all holding meetings amid economic risks from a potential government shutdown in the U.S. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, due to optimistic Sino - US consultations and US CPI being lower than expected, the gold price continued to decline. The trade optimistic expectation returned, increasing the downward pressure on the gold price. The premium of Shanghai gold expanded to - 0.3 yuan/gram [4]. - For silver, with the Sino - US trade negotiation progressing optimistically and CPI being weaker than expected, the silver price declined. The premium of Shanghai silver slightly expanded to 290 yuan/gram, and the domestic sentiment remained strong. The trade optimistic expectation returned, strengthening the downward pressure on the silver price [6]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: COMEX gold futures fell 0.45% to $4126.90 per ounce. The US three major stock indexes rose across the board, most European major stock indexes rose, US Treasury yields rose collectively, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 5.35 basis points to 4.001%, the US dollar index was flat at 98.94, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1262 [4]. - Silver: COMEX silver futures fell 0.60% to $48.41 per ounce. The market situation was similar to that of gold in terms of stock indexes, Treasury yields, and exchange rates [6]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis was - 1.07, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures warrants was 87015 kg, unchanged; the 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position was long, and the main long position decreased [5]. - Silver: The basis was - 21, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants was 664971 kg, with a daily increase of 1605 kg; the 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position was long, and the main long position increased [6]. 3. Today's Focus - All - day: The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference will be held from October 27th to 30th, and the heads of the central bank, the banking and insurance regulatory commission, and the securities regulatory commission will give keynote speeches; US President Trump will visit Japan until October 29th. - 09:15: China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size for September. - 16:15: RBA Governor Bullock will participate in a fireside chat. - 17:00: Germany's October IFO business climate index and the eurozone's September money supply M3. - TBD: A new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. - 20:30: US durable goods orders for September. - 22:30: US October Dallas Fed business activity index [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, the inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, and the gold price was difficult to fall. The verification between the new US government's policy expectation and the reality will continue, and the sentiment of the gold price is high and still prone to rise and difficult to fall [10]. - Silver: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, the inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, and the silver price still mainly followed the gold price. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on the silver price, and the silver price is prone to an enlarged increase [13]. 5. Position Data - Gold: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 1,690 to 169,611, a decrease of 0.99%; the short - position volume decreased by 1,057 to 66,178, a decrease of 1.57%; the net position decreased by 633 to 103,433, a decrease of 0.61% [30]. - Silver: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 7,473 to 353,609, a decrease of 2.07%; the short - position volume decreased by 4,217 to 265,839, a decrease of 1.56%; the net position decreased by 3,256 to 87,770, a decrease of 3.58% [33].