Group 1 - The total amount of gold futures at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 86,565 kilograms, with an increase of 1,959 kilograms compared to the previous day [1] - The main gold futures contract opened at 990.00 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 1,001.96 CNY and a low of 982.28 CNY, currently trading at 994.06 CNY, reflecting a 2.02% increase [1] - Trading volume for the day is 496,445 contracts, with open interest decreasing by 2,806 contracts to 205,110 contracts [1] Group 2 - The market is focused on the upcoming U.S. CPI data to be released on October 24, with expectations of a 0.4% month-over-month increase and a 3.1% year-over-year increase [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on October 29 is anticipated, with a general expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut [1]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing a decline against the US dollar (USD), currently trading below 0.6500 at 0.6495, with a decrease of 0.27% as traders assess the impact of a key mineral agreement between the US and Australia [1] - The agreement, signed by US President Trump and Australian Prime Minister Albanese, supports "shovel-ready" projects worth $8.5 billion, aimed at expanding Australia's mining and processing capabilities [1] - Market focus is shifting towards the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release on October 24, with expectations of a 0.4% month-on-month increase and a 3.1% year-on-year rise [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD exchange rate failed to break the critical resistance level of 0.6535, suggesting a lack of new driving factors and potential for continued volatility in the short term [2] - Support levels are identified at 0.6440 and 0.6415, while resistance levels are at 0.6535 and 0.6630, indicating the need for investors to monitor future catalysts [2] - The currency pair is trading within a downward channel, with a bearish outlook reinforced by the 14-day RSI remaining below 50, suggesting further potential declines [2]

钛媒体App 10月21日消息，金价周二小幅走低，因投资者在前一交易日金价触及新高后获利了结。 KCM Trade首席市场分析师Tim Waterer表示，"获利了结和避险资金流入的减弱共同削弱了今天金价的 优势……黄金的任何回调都将被视为买入机会，而美联储当前仍在的降息轨道上。如果本周稍晚公布的 美国CPI数据不会带来任何令人不快的上行意外，那么当前金价涨势还有进一步上行空间。"（广角观 察） ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic gold prices have stabilized, with some gold stores continuing to see price increases, indicating a mixed market trend for gold retail [1][4]. Price Summary - The highest gold price is reported at 1110 CNY per gram for Lao Miao Gold, which increased by 4 CNY, while Shanghai China Gold remains the lowest at 1011 CNY per gram, resulting in a price gap of 99 CNY [1]. - Other notable gold prices include: - Liufu Gold: 1108 CNY per gram (no change) [3] - Chow Tai Fook: 1108 CNY per gram (no change) [3] - Zhou Liufu: 1070 CNY per gram (increased by 9 CNY) [1] - Cai Bai: 1058 CNY per gram (no change) [3] - Platinum prices have also seen a significant increase, rising by 19 CNY to 633 CNY per gram [4]. Recovery Price Overview - The gold recovery prices have increased, with notable prices as follows: - Cai Bai: 855.00 CNY per gram [4] - Zhou Shengsheng: 844.30 CNY per gram [4] - Zhou Dafu: 853.60 CNY per gram [4] - Lao Fengxiang: 862.50 CNY per gram [4] International Market Insights - The spot gold price reached a peak of 3783.55 USD per ounce before settling at 3759.40 USD per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of 0.30% [6]. - The fluctuations in gold prices were influenced by the U.S. PCE data, which met expectations and strengthened market predictions for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October [6]. - Current market expectations indicate an 87.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October, with a 31.5% chance for December [6]. - Upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll and CPI data releases may further impact gold market volatility, especially amid ongoing government funding negotiations [6].

Inflation Data - The U.S. August CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, matching expectations, and up from 2.7% previously[3] - The August CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month, compared to a 0.2% increase last month[3] - Core CPI for August also grew by 3.1% year-on-year, in line with expectations, and unchanged from the previous month[3] Market Expectations - Market anticipates three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, with a 99% probability of at least two cuts and an 83% probability of three cuts following the data release[8] - The probability of a September rate cut is nearly 100%, with a 9.2% chance of a 50 basis point cut after the data release[8] Market Reactions - Following the CPI data release, U.S. Treasury yields slightly declined, with the 3-month yield down by 1 basis point, the 2-year yield down by 2 basis points, and the 10-year yield down by 3 basis points[9] - Major U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up by 1.36%, S&P 500 up by 0.85%, and Nasdaq up by 0.72%[9] Inflation Components - Core goods inflation continued to rise, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 1.5%[6] - Used car inflation rose by 6% year-on-year and 1% month-on-month, indicating a continued upward trend[7] Economic Outlook - Long-term inflation expectations remain stable, with a slight increase in short-term expectations, as the Michigan survey indicated a rise to 4.8% in August from 4.5% in July[21] - The Federal Reserve's inflation outlook suggests a moderate inflationary environment, with tariff impacts beginning to show[46]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has shown a strong rebound, breaking historical resistance levels and reaching new highs, with expectations for continued upward movement despite some short-term fluctuations [1][3][6]. Price Movement - Gold prices opened the week at $3579.93 per ounce, hitting a low of $3578.09 before rebounding to a weekly high of $3674.36, ultimately closing at $3642.15, marking a weekly increase of $54.64 or 1.47% from the previous week's close of $3589.51 [3][4]. - The weekly price fluctuation was $96.27, indicating significant volatility in the market [3]. Influencing Factors - The rebound in gold prices was driven by weak U.S. labor data and expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, alongside a significant downward revision of U.S. employment data [3][6]. - The market faced pressure from a strong U.S. stock market and negative expectations from the U.S. CPI data, which led to profit-taking and a subsequent price drop [3][4]. Future Outlook - The outlook for gold remains bullish, with expectations that if the Federal Reserve signals a dovish stance, gold prices could easily surpass $3700, potentially reaching $4000 [6][7]. - The market is anticipated to experience continued upward momentum due to ongoing expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which would further support gold prices [6][7]. - The geopolitical and economic uncertainties, along with the U.S. government's tax and tariff policies, are expected to enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [6][7]. Technical Analysis - The gold market is currently in a bullish phase, having broken through historical highs, and is expected to continue this trend over the next year, with potential targets of $4200 or higher [7][8]. - Short-term technical indicators suggest a potential for price corrections, but the overall trend remains positive, with key support levels to watch [8][10].

【盘面分析】 【消息面】 美国8月消费者价格指数（CPI）环比增长0.4%，同比增长2.9%。当月，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价 格后，核心CPI环比增长0.3%，同比增长3.1%。此次 8 月 CPI 数据基本符合预期，通胀相对平稳给了美 联储更大的灵活性，根据CME美联储观察，下周降息25个基点的概率下调至90%下方，而降息50个基点 概率上调至10%上方。 美联储方面，当地时间周三，美国司法部向华盛顿联邦上诉法院提交通知，要求推翻此前的裁决。 摘要9月12日，国内贵金属期货涨跌不一，截止目前，沪金主力报价为833.96元/克，涨幅0.07%，沪银 主力报价为10030.00元/千克，涨幅2.33%；国际贵金属期全线飘红，COMEX黄金报价3869.50元/盎司， 涨幅0.44%，COMEX白银报价42.62美元/盎司，涨幅1.31%。 9月12日，国内贵金属期货涨跌不一，截止目前，沪金主力报价为833.96元/克，涨幅0.07%，沪银主力 报价为10030.00元/千克，涨幅2.33%；国际贵金属期全线飘红，COMEX黄金报价3869.50元/盎司，涨幅 0.44%，COMEX白银报价42.62美元/盎司 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the positive market performance following the release of the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [1][8] - The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices all saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones rising by 1.36% [1] Group 2 - Tim Anderson noted that the market breadth was strong, with a ratio of advancing to declining stocks around 4 to 1 or 5 to 1, indicating a broad-based rally [2] - Almost all sectors showed performance, suggesting a healthy rotation within the market [4] - There is a concern that the market may be overextended, but many stocks that broke out continued to rise for several days [5][6] Group 3 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) data showed a decrease of 0.1%, contrary to expectations of a 0.3% increase, indicating potential stabilization in inflation concerns [8] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates, with market expectations suggesting a total of 75 basis points cut by the end of the year [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August met market expectations, while initial jobless claims unexpectedly increased, leading investors to believe that a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week is highly likely [1][6][9] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.82% to 45862.44, the S&P 500 increased by 0.45% to 6561.24, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.36% to 21965.04 [2] - Chinese concept stocks saw a broad increase, with Alibaba rising nearly 5%, NIO up over 4%, and Baidu, Futu Holdings, and others rising over 3% [3] Group 2 - The August CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, the highest since January, and a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, exceeding the expected 0.3% [5] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, both in line with market expectations [5] - The largest contributor to the CPI increase was housing costs, which rose by 0.4%, accounting for about one-third of the index's weight [5] Group 3 - The unexpected increase in initial jobless claims for the week ending September 6 was 263,000, higher than the Dow Jones forecast of 235,000, marking an increase of 27,000 from the previous period [5] - Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points on September 17, with some considering the possibility of a 50 basis point cut due to the weak job market overshadowing inflation risks [7][9] - The CME FedWatch tool indicates that traders widely expect a 25 basis point rate cut, with an increasing probability for a 50 basis point cut [8]

01) 美国8月未季调CPI年率 公布值 ■符合预期 2.9% 美国8月CPJ年率为2.9% 最大;月率为0.4%,创 期的0.3%。特朗普全面 进的,未来几个月价格i 美国企业已耗尽关税前[ 2025 09-11 美国8月CP 看CPI,到 全十数据 | 2025-09-11制图 | 02 核心CPI年率 | 03 核心C | | --- | --- | | 公布值 | 公布值 | | 3.1% 符合预期 | 符合预期 | | 核心 CPI年 率 为 3.1%,符合预 | 核心CPI月率为 | | 期,其中,居住类指数过去一年一 | 上涨项目包括机 | | 上涨3.6%。 | 服装及新车。 | | 11/ L 1 - 1 / - - | 指数是少数在8 | 交易员完全定价 数据公布后,交易员加 押注,交易员完全定价 美联储今年底前 将降息三次。8月通胀 段新高，但预计不会 将降息三次 息，因就业市场疲弱。 @ JIN10.COM 看CPI，到金十，立即下载金十数据APP>> ...