Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the upcoming US CPI data for July is a crucial economic indicator, especially in the context of rising inflation expectations due to tariff policies [1] - Despite recent tariff developments, including increased tariffs on August 7 and a proposed 100% tariff threat on chips, the overall consumer price increase in the US for Q2 remained below 3.0% [1] - The S&P Global US PMI data, which serves as a leading indicator for CPI trends, suggests that inflation may rise in the second half of 2025, indicating potential future price acceleration [1] Group 2 - The forthcoming CPI data will be essential in confirming whether prices began to accelerate in July, which is critical for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1] - Given the potential volatility in prices, the Federal Reserve is currently adopting a wait-and-see approach [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariffs on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States, highlighting how tariff increases have contributed to inflationary pressures in recent months [2][3][4]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on CPI - The inflation effect of tariffs is evident in the June data, with notable increases in prices for furniture (1%), clothing (0.4%), and entertainment goods (0.8%) [3][8]. - It is estimated that tariffs have already been reflected in the CPI, with a potential impact of 14% if core goods prices remained at February levels, or 40% if they followed last year's declining trend [4][14]. - The overall effective tariff rate in the U.S. increased by approximately 8.3 percentage points from March to June, with the latest estimate suggesting it could rise to 17.3% [10][19]. Group 2: Remaining Tariff Effects - If the overall tariff rate reaches 17.3%, the remaining unreflected tariff impact on core goods prices could contribute an additional 0.5 to 0.54 percentage points to the overall CPI [19]. - Projections indicate that if the remaining tariff effects are realized gradually over the next three months, the CPI year-on-year could be 3.2% and 3.3% for the third and fourth quarters, respectively [19][29]. Group 3: June CPI Data Analysis - The June CPI rose to 2.7% year-on-year, slightly below expectations, while the core CPI increased to 2.9% [20][29]. - The breadth of CPI inflation has widened, with the proportion of items with year-on-year increases exceeding 2% rising from 40.8% to 44.1% [20][24]. - Core goods prices saw a significant increase, with the CPI for core goods rising from 0% to 0.2% month-on-month, driven by higher prices in imported goods [24][26]. Group 4: Market Reaction - Following the CPI report, market expectations for interest rate cuts have slightly cooled, with the anticipated number of cuts decreasing from 1.93 to 1.76 [29]. - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.53% to 98.63, and the yield on ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds increased by 4.8 basis points to 4.481% [29].

Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn from July 15 to 16, with Bitcoin's price dropping from a historical high of $123,100 to $116,300, marking a daily decline of over 5% [1] - Major cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin also saw declines ranging from 4% to 8% [1] - The crash resulted in a surge of liquidations, with 135,800 individuals affected and a total liquidation amount of $493 million (approximately 3.54 billion RMB), with nearly 80% of losses coming from long positions [1] Bitcoin Market Dynamics - On-chain data indicates that Bitcoin's exchange supply has fallen to a historical low of 14.5%, while the number of whale addresses holding over 1,000 BTC has increased to 2,135, suggesting sustained confidence among long-term holders [3] - The recent price correction is viewed as a standard adjustment following a market overheating, with the next key support level for Bitcoin identified at $114,000, a price point that previously triggered significant short covering [3] - Over the past three months, Bitcoin has seen an increase of over 40% due to institutional inflows, with a notable single-day surge of 6.8% on July 14 [3] Market Influences - The release of the U.S. June CPI data coincided with the market crash, leading investors to preemptively withdraw from risk assets. The CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [4] - Concerns about potential inflation rebound have led to fears that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts, with analysts noting that cryptocurrencies are particularly sensitive to interest rate changes [4] Regulatory Environment - Matrixport has warned of tightening U.S. regulatory policies, with the SEC potentially expanding its enforcement on "tokenized securities," which could lead to prolonged volatility in risk assets [5] - Despite the challenges, some institutions maintain confidence in Bitcoin's price trajectory, with Bernstein reiterating a year-end target of $150,000 for Bitcoin, emphasizing that the current cycle is institutionally driven, contrasting with the retail-driven bubble of 2017 [5]

Core Insights - LME copper inventory has confirmed a bottom, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [1] - Recent US CPI data has reduced the likelihood of the Federal Reserve implementing interest rate cuts in the near term [1] - Institutions believe that the copper price correction is not yet over, suggesting ongoing volatility in the market [1] Industry Analysis - The confirmation of LME copper inventory bottom may influence future trading strategies and market sentiment [1] - The impact of US CPI data on Federal Reserve policy could lead to shifts in investment strategies across various sectors, particularly those reliant on copper [1] - Ongoing monitoring of copper prices is essential as institutions anticipate further corrections, highlighting the need for investors to stay informed [1]

Report Summary Core View - The expectation of a September interest rate cut in the US is stable, and index futures are likely to fluctuate strongly [1] - On July 15, all four index futures contracts for the current month declined. IF dropped 0.12%, IH dropped 0.58%, IC dropped 0.12%, and IM dropped 0.44% [1] - On this trading day, the total trading volume of index futures rebounded, indicating increased trading enthusiasm among investors. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 44,249 lots, IH by 19,958 lots, IC by 34,305 lots, and IM by 77,808 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF increased by 3,863 lots, IH by 1,424 lots, IC by 3,901 lots, and IM by 18,183 lots [1][2] Data Tracking Index Futures Data | Index | Closing Price | Change (%) | Basis | Turnover (Billion) | Volume | Change | Open Interest | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 300 | 4,019.06 | ↑0.03 | | 353.52 | | | | | | IF2507 | 4,009.6 | ↓0.12 | -9.46 | 47.2 | 39,238 | ↑10,856 | 45,718 | ↓4,132 | | IF2508 | 3,993.2 | ↓0.18 | -25.86 | 13.81 | 11,529 | ↑4,578 | 19,935 | ↑4,198 | | IF2509 | 3,980.6 | ↓0.24 | -38.46 | 74.76 | 62,583 | ↑24,994 | 152,828 | ↑2,640 | | IF2512 | 3,948.6 | ↓0.25 | -70.46 | 12.97 | 10,947 | ↑3,821 | 48,850 | ↑1,157 | | SSE 50 | 2,747.23 | ↓0.38 | | 79.81 | | | | | | IH2507 | 2,740.2 | ↓0.58 | -7.03 | 15.73 | 19,124 | ↑4,764 | 22,777 | ↓1,830 | | IH2508 | 2,735 | ↓0.66 | -12.23 | 3.14 | 3,820 | ↑1,118 | 5,522 | ↑1,353 | | IH2509 | 2,734.2 | ↓0.64 | -13.03 | 28.14 | 34,281 | ↑12,504 | 58,202 | ↑1,546 | | IH2512 | 2,735.2 | ↓0.66 | -12.03 | 3.34 | 4,069 | ↑1,572 | 10,978 | ↑355 | | CSI 500 | 6,018.76 | ↓0.03 | | 246.08 | | | | | | IC2507 | 6,008.2 | ↓0.12 | -10.56 | 47.05 | 39,182 | ↑11,059 | 47,615 | ↓5,099 | | IC2508 | 5,949 | ↓0.21 | -69.76 | 14.63 | 12,301 | ↑2,863 | 27,145 | ↑4,805 | | IC2509 | 5,893.4 | ↓0.26 | -125.36 | 45.59 | 38,675 | ↑16,208 | 99,289 | ↑4,885 | | IC2512 | 5,770.4 | ↓0.22 | -248.36 | 12.18 | 10,553 | ↑4,175 | 57,153 | ↓690 | | CSI 1000 | 6,442.83 | ↓0.30 | | 347.38 | | | | | | IM2507 | 6,422 | ↓0.44 | -20.83 | 62.98 | 49,078 | ↑11,709 | 54,685 | ↓4,311 | | IM2508 | 6,352.8 | ↓0.46 | -90.03 | 22.9 | 18,041 | ↑7,303 | 31,298 | ↑8,958 | | IM2509 | 6,277.4 | ↓0.55 | -165.43 | 151.01 | 120,268 | ↑49,084 | 181,672 | ↑13,659 | | IM2512 | 6,099 | ↓0.52 | -343.83 | 28.3 | 23,203 | ↑9,712 | 77,129 | ↑2,067 | [1] Positions of the Top 20 Members in Futures | Contract | Long Position Change | Net Long Position Change | Short Position Change | Net Short Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF2507 | -2,144 | | -3,380 | | | IF2508 | 3,343 | 4,266 | 3,708 | 2,495 | | IF2509 | 2,224 | | 1,362 | | | IF2512 | 843 | | 805 | | | IH2507 | -333 | 1,106 | -1,613 | | | IH2508 | Not announced | | Not announced | | | IH2509 | 1,282 | | 1,614 | 487 | | IH2512 | 157 | | 486 | | | IC2507 | -3,506 | | -3,980 | 1,971 | | IC2508 | 3,762 | 3,173 | 4,065 | | | IC2509 | 3,354 | | 2,862 | | | IC2512 | -437 | | -976 | | | IM2507 | -1,683 | | -2,516 | | | IM2508 | 5,802 | | 5,461 | | | IM2509 | 11,704 | 15,823 | 10,596 | 13,541 | | IM2512 | Not announced | | Not announced | | [5] Important Drivers - The 14th issue of Qiushi Journal published on July 16 will feature an important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping, emphasizing that China's policy of utilizing foreign investment remains unchanged [6] - The US June unadjusted CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year, the highest since February, in line with expectations. After seasonal adjustment, the CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, also in line with expectations. The unadjusted core CPI rose 2.9% year-on-year, slightly lower than the expected 3.0%. After seasonal adjustment, the core CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3% [6] - After the release of the US CPI report, traders continued to bet that the Fed may start cutting interest rates in September. The market pricing indicates that the probability of a September interest rate cut by the Fed remains around 60%. Traders still believe the probability of a rate cut this month is only 5% [6] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.56%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.73%. The trading volume of A-shares reached 1.64 trillion yuan, up from 1.48 trillion yuan the previous day. More than 4,000 stocks declined. CPO concept stocks strengthened collectively, with New Fiber Optic Communication Technology Co., Ltd. hitting the 20% daily limit and reaching a new all-time high. AI intelligent agent concept stocks showed late-day activity, and some real estate stocks rebounded. However, the photovoltaic industry chain, pharmaceutical stocks, and power stocks declined [6] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and the trend intensity of IC and IM is 1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [6]

Core Points - The ICE Dollar Index increased by 0.57%, reaching 98.635 points, with a low of 97.931 points earlier in the day [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Index rose by 0.41%, closing at 1207.48 points, with a trading range of 1200.14 to 1208.31 points [1] - Following the release of the U.S. CPI data, the Dollar Index experienced a significant rally, climbing to a high of 98.699 points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 5.0093%, marking the first increase since June 2, with an intraday rise of approximately 2.8 basis points [1] Group 1 - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by about 5 basis points, stabilizing near the intraday high of 3.9524% [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 3.6 basis points, reaching a new intraday high of 4.4713% [1] - Prior to the release of U.S. CPI data and the opening of the U.S. stock market, the 30-year yield had dipped to a low of 4.9306% [1]

Core Insights - The June CPI report is characterized by its "self-selecting interpretation" nature, allowing for varied perspectives on the data [1] - The core CPI increased by 0.23% month-over-month in June, which is the median monthly increase over the past 12 months, indicating a moderate inflation trend [1] - Most forecasters expect more significant tariff impacts to be seen in July and August, suggesting that the June report may not alter existing views on inflation dynamics [1] - The report's findings may reinforce existing beliefs about the pace and magnitude of inflation transmission, depending on the initial outlook of the analysts [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential impact of U.S. CPI data on gold trading strategies, particularly in relation to expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] - It highlights the importance of monitoring economic indicators like CPI to inform investment decisions in gold [1] - The article suggests that the anticipation of interest rate cuts may influence the positioning of long positions in gold [1]

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