智通财经APP获悉，麦格理发布研报称，在纳入汇率逆风因素后，对普拉达(01913)2025至2027年各年净 利润预测分别下调1.5%、1.3%、1.3%; 并基于不变的2025年预估20倍市盈率，将目标价下调2%，从60 港元降至59港元，评级跑赢大市。 按固定汇率计算，预计普拉达今年第四季度将实现零售同比增长7%;若按列账汇率计算，零售额、集团 销售额将分别同比增长0.2%、0.9%;该行又认为，市场对其副线Miu Miu增长放缓的担忧过度，因该品 牌在过去两年实现约150%的增长，且管理层对集团资产负债表状况感到满意，因其每年可产生10亿欧 元的自由现金流，并计划维持50%的派息率。 麦格理预计，在宏观不确定性下和市场份额提升情况下，集团今年第四季度将展现韧性，并相信Prada 品牌因销售转换率提高，持续看到其按季改善，预计其第四季度零售额将年增1%。而Miu Miu在第四季 度的零售额将实现稳健20%同比增长，但考虑到该品牌的市场渗透率仍然不足，其计划明年扩充零售楼 面10%至15%的举措可能成为增长动力。此外，集团预计Versace在明后两年，每年拖累公司5,000万至1 亿欧元的息税前利润，麦格理 ...

【麦格理发布普拉达研报，下调目标价但维持评级】12月22日，麦格理发表研报。按固定汇率算，预计 普拉达第四季度零售同比增长7%；按列账汇率，零售额、集团销售额分别同比增长0.2%、0.9%。麦格 理认为，市场对其副线MiuMiu增长放缓担忧过度，该品牌过去两年增长约150%。且管理层对集团资产 负债表满意，每年可产生10亿欧元自由现金流，还计划维持50%派息率。考虑汇率逆风因素，麦格理下 调集团2025 - 2027年净利润预测，分别下调1.5%、1.3%、1.3%。基于不变的2025年预估20倍市盈率， 目标价从60港元降至59港元，评级"跑赢大市"。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

中泰证券指出，富时中国A股自由现金流指数成份股集中分布在原材料、工业和可选消费行业，行业防 御属性相对较强。在震荡下跌市中，自由现金流指数跑赢全市场，展现出避险功能。从因子表现看，自 由现金流率与股息率呈显著正相关，现金流充裕的公司更倾向于稳定分红，规避了缺乏现金流支撑 的"价值陷阱"。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 投资者可关注现金流ETF（159399）。市场表现来看，标的指数富时现金流指数2016年至2024年连续9 年跑赢中证红利指数和沪深300指数。现金流ETF（159399）的标的指数聚焦大中市值，标的指数央国 企占比高于同类现金流指数，月月可评估分红，感兴趣的投资者或可持续关注。 ...

费率方面，自由现金流ETF管理费率为0.15%，托管费率为0.05%。 值得注意的是，该基金跟踪的国证自由现金流指数估值处于历史低位，最新市净率PB为1.43倍，低于指 数近1年96.63%以上的时间，估值性价比突出。 自由现金流ETF(159201)，场外联接(华夏国证自由现金流ETF发起式联接A：023917；华夏国证自由现 金流ETF发起式联接C：023918)。 从资金净流入方面来看，自由现金流ETF近5天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得1.21亿元净流入， 合计"吸金"2.29亿元。份额方面，自由现金流ETF最新份额达67.49亿份，创成立以来新高。规模方面， 自由现金流ETF最新规模达79.91亿元，创成立以来新高。 数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。自由现金流ETF最新融资买入额达1654.97万元，最新融资余额达1.01 亿元。 截至12月18日，自由现金流ETF近6月净值上涨19.28%。从收益能力看，截至2025年12月18日，自由现 金流ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为7.00%，最长连涨月数为6个月，最长连涨涨幅为22.69%，涨跌月 数比为7/2，上涨月份平均收益率为3.20%，月盈利百 ...

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Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive performance of the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index and the increasing interest in related ETFs, indicating a favorable market environment for companies with high free cash flow [1] - The Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index experienced a recovery after an initial decline, with constituent stocks like Huaren Health hitting the daily limit, and other stocks such as Yixin Tang, Fujian Gaoshu, and Wewei Co. also seeing gains [1] - The largest free cash flow ETF (159201) has attracted over 960 million yuan in net inflows over the past 20 trading days, reflecting strong investor interest [1] Group 2 - According to Song Zhiping, President of the China Listed Companies Association, recent policy measures aimed at "strengthening patient capital" have provided institutional support for guiding medium- and long-term funds into the market since the Central Political Bureau meeting in 2024 [1] - Since 2025, various types of medium- and long-term funds have net purchased over 600 billion yuan in A-shares, serving as a stabilizing force against market volatility and promoting value recovery [1] - The free cash flow ETF (159201) and its linked funds closely track the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index, focusing on companies with high free cash flow rates, making it a quality investment choice with growth potential and policy certainty [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in the U.S. stock market, particularly focusing on the sell-off of AI-related stocks and the shift towards more defensive sectors due to concerns over the sustainability of AI infrastructure investments [1][4]. Market Performance - On Wednesday, the S&P 500 index fell by 1.16% to 6721.43 points, the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 1.81% to 22693.32 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.47% to 47885.97 points, marking the fourth consecutive day of decline for both the S&P 500 and Dow [1][2]. Oracle's Financing Issues - Oracle's stock price dropped approximately 5% following reports of financing issues related to a $10 billion data center project in Michigan, primarily due to concerns from Blue Owl Capital regarding Oracle's debt levels and capital expenditure intensity [2][7]. - Despite Oracle's denial of the reports and claims that the project is still progressing, investor concerns about the return on AI infrastructure investments and financing sustainability remain [2][7]. AI Sector Impact - The decline in Oracle's stock has led to a broader sell-off in AI-related stocks, with companies like Broadcom, NVIDIA, AMD, and Alphabet experiencing significant drops in their stock prices [4][10]. - The market is witnessing a shift from large growth stocks to large value stocks, as investors prepare for potential uncertainties in the coming year [4][5]. Financial Concerns - Oracle's total liabilities, including operating lease liabilities, have exceeded $124 billion, raising concerns about its financial flexibility and long-term return prospects [10]. - The company's commitments for data center and cloud computing-related leases have surged to $248 billion, a 148% increase from August levels, further intensifying investor scrutiny [9][10]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the rotation from overvalued assets to more reasonably priced sectors may continue until 2026, potentially increasing market volatility [5]. - The key to determining the value of AI investments will increasingly focus on hard metrics like free cash flow, as opposed to more flexible financial indicators [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant market pullback in major indices, particularly in AI-related stocks, driven by concerns over Oracle's debt levels and spending, following the withdrawal of a key investor from a major data center project [1][3][4]. Market Performance - On the day of reporting, the Dow Jones index fell by 0.47% to 47,885.97 points, the S&P 500 dropped by 1.16% to 6,721.43 points, and the Nasdaq index decreased by 1.81% to 22,693.32 points [3]. - Oracle's stock declined by 5.4% amid reports of financial concerns related to a $10 billion data center project in Michigan, which was not financed as planned [3][4]. Investor Sentiment - Despite Oracle's denial of the project being halted, market sentiment remained negative, leading to significant declines in other AI-related stocks, including Broadcom (down over 4%), Nvidia (down nearly 4%), AMD (down over 5%), and Google (down over 3%) [4]. - Brian Mulberry from Zacks Investment Management noted a clear rotation from large-cap growth stocks to large-cap value stocks, indicating a defensive positioning by investors in anticipation of future market conditions [4]. Trends and Predictions - Since December, several AI concept stocks, including Oracle and Broadcom, have seen notable declines, with Oracle and Broadcom down over 11% and approximately 19% respectively this month [4]. - Mulberry predicts that the trend of moving away from overvalued stocks towards more reasonably valued sectors will continue until 2026, potentially leading to market volatility due to uncertainties in monetary policy [4]. Key Indicators - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring key indicators, such as free cash flow, to assess when and where profitability in the AI sector may turn around, as free cash flow cannot be easily manipulated [5]. - The article also mentions that Medline, a medical supplies giant, had a successful IPO, raising $6.26 billion, marking the largest IPO in the U.S. since 2021 [5]. Stock Performance Overview - Major tech stocks experienced declines, with Nvidia down 3.81%, Apple down 1.01%, Microsoft down 0.06%, Google down 3.21%, Amazon down 0.58%, Meta down 1.16%, Tesla down 4.62%, Broadcom down 4.48%, and Oracle down 5.40% [6]. - Chinese concept stocks also faced downward pressure, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 0.73%, and notable declines in Alibaba, JD.com, Pinduoduo, and NIO [6].

Market Overview - Major indices collectively declined, with the Nasdaq dropping nearly 2% as investors continued to pull funds from AI concept stocks [1][3] - The Dow Jones fell 0.47% to 47,885.97 points, the S&P 500 decreased by 1.16% to 6,721.43 points, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.81% to 22,693.32 points [3] Company-Specific News - Oracle's stock fell 5.4% after reports that Blue Owl Capital withdrew from financing a $10 billion data center project due to concerns over Oracle's debt levels and spending [3] - Oracle denied the report, stating that the project is still progressing, but the statement did not alleviate market concerns [3] - Other AI-related stocks also saw significant declines, with Broadcom down over 4%, Nvidia nearly 4%, AMD over 5%, and Google down over 3% [4] Investment Trends - There is a noticeable shift from large-cap growth stocks to large-cap value stocks, as investors adopt a more defensive posture in anticipation of potential market conditions next year [4] - Since December, Oracle and Broadcom have seen declines of over 11% and approximately 19%, respectively, as investors move towards financial and value-oriented sectors [4] - The trend of moving away from overvalued stocks towards more reasonably valued sectors is expected to continue until 2026, influenced by monetary policy uncertainties [4] AI Sector Developments - Google is reportedly collaborating with Meta to enhance TPU support for PyTorch, aiming to challenge Nvidia's dominance in the AI chip market [6] - Amazon announced a restructuring of its AI team, integrating its general AI team with chip development and quantum computing research, led by a veteran from its cloud services division [7] Pharmaceutical Sector News - Novartis and Roche are nearing a drug pricing agreement with the U.S. government, which may be announced soon, potentially easing trade tensions between the U.S. and Switzerland [8] Data Collaboration Initiatives - OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google are exploring data partnerships with biotech and other companies to acquire specialized datasets for training AI models [9]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 投资者可关注现金流ETF（159399）。市场表现来看，标的指数富时现金流指数2016年至2024年连续9 年跑赢中证红利指数和沪深300指数。现金流ETF（159399）的标的指数聚焦大中市值，标的指数央国 企占比高于同类现金流指数，根据基金公告，现金流ETF月月可评估分红，自上市以来连续10个月分 红，感兴趣的投资者或可持续关注。 根据wind数据，现金流ETF（159399）盘中净流入2000万份，资金抢筹布局。 兴业证券指出，低利率时代下，红利板块仍将是优质底仓资产，但上市公司整体盈利具备弹性后，个股 的筛选思路或由此前的稳定红利转向自由现金流。自由现金流方向兼具分红提升和扩大资本开支的潜 力，具备比普通红利板块更强的弹性空间。 ...