2026 年 01 月 10 日 FOF 基金: 2025 年度策略回顾 2026 年度策略展望 相关研究 证券分析师 白皓天 A0230525070001 baiht@swsresearch.com 蒋辛 A0230521080002 jiangxin@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 白皓天 A0230525070001 baiht@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 规模维度：2025 年规模逆势回升，累计规模已超过 2021 年末水平。1）从数量来看, 2025 年 FOF 新发产品数量有明显提升，2025 年内共计新发 FOF93 只，对比去年 38 只 的新发数量明显上升; 2) FOF 总规模逆势回升, 2025 年内 FOF 规模累计 2383.76 亿 元, 相比 2024 年末上升 1052.26 亿元;其中,年内规模增量主要源于新发规模,新发 规模达 845 亿元; 3）长盈计划相关 FOF 受到大幅关注, 首发规模与持营规模变动均靠 前;4) 基金公司：多数头 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the scale of FOF funds rebounded against the trend, with the cumulative scale exceeding that at the end of 2021. The performance of all FOF achieved positive returns, and high - performing FOF continued the passive investment trend and some emphasized multi - asset allocation. FOF showed a preference for equity and other risk assets and continued to strengthen passive investment in Q3 2025. The scale of personal pension funds maintained a high growth rate. Customized FOF, such as the Changying Plan and Longying FOF, focused on multi - asset allocation. In 2026, FOF products with multi - asset and multi - strategy allocation capabilities have broad development prospects [1]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Scale Dimension: Which Type of FOF Funds Does the Market Pay More Attention to? - **Overall Scale Recovery**: In 2025, the number of new FOF funds increased to 93 from 38 in the previous year, and 43 FOF funds were liquidated. The total scale of FOF reached 238.376 billion yuan, an increase of 105.226 billion yuan compared to the end of 2024. The new - issue scale was 84.5 billion yuan, and the continuous - operation scale increased by about 20.696 billion yuan, ending three consecutive years of decline [9]. - **Outstanding New - issue Institutions**: Products托管 by China Merchants Bank were prominent in terms of scale and quantity, with a new - issue scale exceeding 40 billion yuan. Fund companies such as Fullgoal Fund, Orient Securities Asset Management, and Ping An Fund had new - issue scales exceeding 5 billion yuan [11]. - **Popularity of Changying Plan - Related FOF**: FOF products with large net subscriptions in 2025 were mostly bond - type FOF and fixed - income + FOF. The top 5 funds in net subscriptions were all from the Changying Plan. The top 10 funds in new - issue scale were mostly fixed - income + FOF or bond - type FOF, and 8 of them were托管 by China Merchants Bank [13]. - **Changes in Fund Company Scale**: In 2025, the scale of most leading fund managers increased, and the scale ranking changed significantly. Fullgoal Fund and E Fund's scale increased by over 10 billion yuan. Leading fund managers showed two layout characteristics: balanced layout in multiple types of FOF or specialization in a single track [16]. 3.2 Performance Dimension: High - performing FOF Continued the Passive Investment Trend, and Some Emphasized Multi - asset Allocation - **Positive Returns in 2025**: In 2025, all FOF achieved positive returns. The performance was positively correlated with the position, and equity - type FOF performed best with a median return of 25.25%, while bond - type FOF was relatively weak with a median return of 2.70%. Two FOF products exceeded 10 billion yuan in scale [20][21]. - **Investment Characteristics of High - performing FOF**: High - performing bond - type FOF generally allocated multi - assets such as commodities; high - performing fixed - income + FOF obtained returns from both fixed - income + and stock funds while having multi - asset allocation features; high - performing balanced - type FOF mainly adopted passive investment and focused on ETFs with themes of gold, TMT, and new energy; high - performing equity - type FOF further strengthened the theme concentration [25]. - **Outstanding Performance of Cathay Fund's FOF Team**: In 2025, Cathay Fund's FOF team performed outstandingly in various types of FOF, including bond - type, fixed - income +, balanced - type, and equity - type FOF [30]. 3.3 Investment Characteristics: The Allocation Ratio of A - share Equities Such as Active Equities Increased, and the Increase in Holdings in Q3 25 Showed a Preference for Technology and Advanced Manufacturing - **Multi - asset Allocation of Leading Managers**: Leading managers generally attached importance to multi - asset allocation, with different investment directions. Some focused on QDII stocks, some on mutual - recognition funds, and some on commodities [38]. - **Overall Market Characteristics**: In Q3 2025, FOF decreased the holding ratio of pure - bond funds and increased the attention to active and passive equity funds, showing a preference for risk assets and strengthening passive investment. The heavy - position funds showed a preference for A - share technology and advanced manufacturing assets [40]. 3.4 Personal Pension Funds: The Total Y - share Amounted to 1.2817 Billion Yuan As of Q3 2025, the scale of personal pension funds reached 1.2817 billion yuan, an increase of 1.983 billion yuan compared to Q2 25 and 3.99 billion yuan compared to the end of 2024. Pension target date funds were more popular, with a current scale of 7.803 billion yuan [49]. 3.5 Customized FOF: Changying Plan & Longying FOF - **Changying Plan**: Established in early 2025, the included products are all positioned as multi - asset allocation FOF, with different levels corresponding to different return and risk targets. The products in the plan met the return and risk requirements in 2025, with relatively low maximum drawdown rates and prominent risk - return ratios. Other new - issue FOF products托管 by China Merchants Bank also had similar multi - asset allocation characteristics [59][68]. - **Longying FOF**: Established in early 2026, initially only including multi - asset allocation FOF, and will expand to ETF - FOF and global investment FOF in the future. The included products mostly met the return/withdrawal limits in 2025 and had multi - asset allocation characteristics, with a greater focus on overseas investment [77][82]. - **Other Multi - asset Allocation FOF**: Some products, such as Orient Securities Pension and Zhongtai Tianze, have adhered to multi - asset allocation for a long time and achieved excellent performance in 2025. More than half of the new - issue FOF in 2025 emphasized multi - asset allocation in their performance comparison benchmarks [88][93]. - **Investment Strategy for 2026 FOF Funds**: FOF can achieve diversified investment through multi - asset allocation, improve the risk - return ratio of the investment portfolio, and create differentiated investment targets. Low - volatility FOF products represented by bond - type and fixed - income + have been favored by funds in recent years, and the development of multi - asset allocation FOF remains an important direction in the future [95].

桂浩明(市场资深人士) 其次，现在ETF种类较之前丰富了许多，既有挂钩黄金等商品的ETF，也有投资科创板债券的固收 ETF。产品的增加，就能满足更多投资者需求。去年黄金大涨，投资者直接买黄金制品或投资黄金期 货，但投资这些产品所需资金较大，或者风险系数高，而黄金ETF则满足部分投资者的需要。也有的投 资者较为保守，但又希望获得相对高一点的收益，科创债券ETF的出现使得他们有了合适的投资对象。 显然，品种的增加以及产品的成熟，也是去年ETF取得重大发展的原因之一。 在2025年底，ETF规模突破6万亿元。去年初，ETF规模尚不到4万亿元，一年中连续跨越三个台阶，这 是巨大的突破。 此外，监管部门简化了ETF批准程序，缩短了ETF产品从申报到发行的审核时间，有利于基金公司及时 开发与发行与市场热点紧密相关的产品，对吸引更多投资者起到重要作用。 ETF作为一种金融创新产品，萌芽于本世纪初，我国也是此时诞生了第一个ETF产品，即上证50ETF。 不过，国内ETF真正快速发展，还是2021年以后的事情。当时市场受各方面因素制约，表现比较弱，尤 其是一些个股暴露了较大的风险。但此时进行指数化投资的ETF，平滑了一些个股风 ...

Core Insights - The ETF market in China has reached a significant milestone, surpassing 6 trillion yuan in total scale, reflecting a growth of 60% year-on-year [2] - Over the past five years, the total scale of ETFs has increased from 1.1 trillion yuan to 6.02 trillion yuan, marking a cumulative growth of 452.53% [4][5] - The market has seen a substantial increase in the number of products and trading volume, indicating a shift in investor preferences towards passive investment strategies [5] Market Overview - As of December 2025, the total scale of ETFs reached 6.03 trillion yuan, with an increase of 2.29 trillion yuan within the year [2] - The number of ETF products grew from 326 to 1402, with a total trading volume rising from 843.48 billion yuan to 3960.20 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 369.51% [5] - The proportion of ETFs in the public fund market increased from 5.47% at the end of 2020 to 15.33% by the third quarter of 2025 [5] Competitive Landscape - The top ten ETF management firms have remained relatively stable, with seven firms consistently leading the market, including 华夏基金 (China Asset Management), 易方达基金 (E Fund), and 华泰柏瑞基金 (Huatai-PB) [6][8] - 华夏基金 has maintained its position as the largest ETF manager, with its scale growing from 1879 billion yuan in 2020 to 9570 billion yuan by the end of 2025 [8] - The entry threshold for the top ten ETF managers has significantly increased, with the required management scale rising from 300 billion yuan five years ago to 2000 billion yuan by the end of 2025 [9] Index Performance - The 沪深300 index remains the most popular, with ETF scale reaching 11855.57 billion yuan by the end of 2025, solidifying its status as a core asset allocation tool [12] - New indices like 中证A500 have gained traction, with its ETF scale surpassing 3000 billion yuan, indicating a shift towards high-quality asset representation [12] - The diversification of asset classes in the top ten indices reflects changing investor preferences, with technology and growth indices gaining prominence [13] Investor Composition - Institutional investors have solidified their dominance in the ETF market, with their share increasing from 69.07% at the end of 2020 to 76.84% by mid-2025 [16] - The absolute scale of institutional holdings grew from 743.8 billion yuan to 3.3 trillion yuan, highlighting a significant influx of long-term capital [16] - Individual investors have shown a consistent engagement with ETFs, maintaining a net value holding ratio close to that of institutional investors [17] Role of State-Owned Entities - The "national team" has increasingly utilized ETFs as a tool for market stabilization, with significant investments from 中央汇金 (Central Huijin) growing from 147 billion yuan in 2013 to over 12 trillion yuan by mid-2025 [18][19] - The diversification of the national team's ETF holdings has expanded to include various sectors, indicating a strategic approach to market support [19]

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market has reached historical highs, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassing 49,000 points, indicating a significant shift in the investment environment that could present both opportunities and risks for investors [1][2]. Market Performance - On January 6, 2025, the Dow Jones increased by 484.90 points (0.99%) to close at 49,462.08, marking a new record [1]. - The S&P 500 rose by 42.77 points (0.62%) to 6,944.82, also achieving a historical closing high [1]. - The Nasdaq Composite gained 151.35 points (0.65%) to reach 23,547.17 [1]. - The Dow Jones had already increased by 1.23% on January 5, leading to a cumulative rise of over 2% in just two days [2]. Economic Drivers - The first driving force behind the stock market surge is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which has lowered interest rates to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% by 2025, increasing liquidity in the market [2]. - The second factor is corporate stock buybacks, which have reached near-historical highs, reducing the number of shares and pushing stock prices higher [2]. - The third influence is the AI boom and the self-reinforcing nature of passive investments, where rising large-cap stocks lead to increased index fund purchases, further driving prices up [3]. Valuation Concerns - The Buffett Indicator, which measures the ratio of total stock market capitalization to GDP, has reached 223%, significantly exceeding the 70%-80% range considered reasonable [3]. - Historical data shows that after two consecutive years of over 10% gains in the S&P 500, the following year typically sees a decline [3]. Diverging Opinions - Optimists argue that AI profits have yet to be fully realized, and the U.S. economy has not faced a hard landing, with S&P 500 earnings growing by 13.4% year-over-year in Q3 2025 [4]. - Pessimists highlight the high valuations based on uncertain economic conditions, warning that any negative developments could lead to a market correction [4][5]. Global Investment Trends - Analysts suggest that the trend of global capital moving towards Asia will continue, driven by a weakening dollar, significant valuation differences, and higher economic growth rates in China compared to the U.S. [6]. - The S&P 500's TTM P/E ratio is 29.5, while the CSI 300 is at 14.1, indicating a higher safety margin in the Chinese market [6]. Investment Opportunities - Key sectors to watch include hard technology, high-end manufacturing, and structural opportunities in domestic demand, particularly in aging-related and emotional value consumption sectors [8]. - Companies with core technologies and those benefiting from domestic trends are expected to attract investment [8]. Conclusion - The current market dynamics suggest that investors should focus on structural opportunities in Asia, particularly in undervalued sectors with strong growth potential, rather than chasing high valuations in the U.S. market [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong demand for professional asset allocation, as evidenced by the rapid fundraising of FOF products at the beginning of 2026 [1][2] - Two FOF products, Wanji Qi Tai and Guangfa Yue Ying, achieved "one-day sell-out" and "two-day completion" respectively, indicating a favorable market environment for FOFs [1] - The current market conditions, including a relatively loose funding environment and a recovery in risk appetite, are conducive to the successful launch and fundraising of FOF products [1][2] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the demand for diversified and stable investment options is increasing due to the ongoing decline in deposit rates, making FOFs an attractive choice for investors [2] - The trend towards lower fees in the public fund sector is extending to FOFs, particularly in bond-type FOFs, which may enhance their long-term appeal to cost-sensitive investors [2] - The growth of pension FOFs is expected to benefit from the personal pension system, positioning them as key players in asset allocation and market expansion [2]

Core Insights - The ETF market in China has seen significant growth, with an increase of over 2 trillion yuan in 2025, making it a crucial growth area for the public fund industry [1][2] - Numerous fund companies, including newly established ones and traditional securities asset management institutions, are actively recruiting talent and preparing to enter the ETF market [1][2] Industry Trends - The ETF market, valued at approximately 6 trillion yuan, is attracting more institutions, leading to increased competition and potential for product innovation [2][10] - The entry of new players is driven by a combination of policy support, market demand, and the advantages of passive investment strategies [13][14] Recruitment and Talent Acquisition - Fund companies are intensifying their recruitment efforts for ETF-related positions, such as fund accountants and system operation roles, to support their ETF initiatives [2][5][10] - Positions require specific expertise in ETF operations, accounting, and system management, indicating a focus on building a skilled workforce for ETF management [4][7] Challenges for New Entrants - New entrants face challenges such as resource allocation, liquidity management, and brand building in a market dominated by established players [15][16] - Strategic focus on long-term goals and differentiation in product offerings is essential for new companies to succeed in the competitive ETF landscape [15][16] Market Dynamics - The ETF market is evolving towards a more balanced structure and deeper services, driven by the influx of new institutions [17] - The demand for low-cost, transparent, and liquid investment products is increasing among both institutional and individual investors, further supporting the growth of ETFs [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The ETF market in China is experiencing significant growth, with over 2 trillion yuan added in 2025, attracting numerous new entrants from various sectors, including banks and newly established fund companies [2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The ETF market is now valued at approximately 6 trillion yuan, leading to increased competition as more institutions seek to enter this space [4]. - Many fund companies are ramping up recruitment for ETF-related positions in preparation for 2026, indicating a strategic shift towards ETF offerings [4][5]. - New entrants, such as Peng'an Fund and Caifeng Securities Asset Management, are actively hiring for roles that require expertise in ETF operations and accounting [4][5][10]. Group 2: Motivations for Entry - The influx of fund companies into the ETF market is driven by a combination of policy support, market demand, and the advantages of passive investment strategies [14][15]. - The increasing effectiveness of the market has made passive investment through ETFs more appealing, as active management yields diminishing returns [14]. - Institutions are recognizing the potential for growth in the ETF sector, with a focus on expanding their product lines to capture market share during this growth phase [14][15]. Group 3: Challenges and Strategies for New Entrants - New entrants face significant challenges, including competition from established players, resource allocation, and brand recognition [18][19]. - To succeed, new fund companies must adopt a long-term perspective, focusing on differentiation and strategic investment in talent and technology [18][20]. - Emphasizing product innovation and enhancing service quality will be crucial for new entrants to carve out a niche in the competitive ETF landscape [20].

Core Insights - The public fund issuance market in 2025 experienced significant growth, with a total of 1,552 new public fund products established, marking a 35.87% increase from 2024 and reaching a four-year high in issuance numbers [1] - The average subscription period for new funds decreased to 16.41 days from 22.61 days in the previous year, indicating heightened market enthusiasm [1] - The equity market's favorable conditions laid a solid foundation for this growth, with 1,109 new equity funds accounting for 71.41% of the total new funds [1] Fund Types - Among the new funds, stock funds were the primary contributors, with 835 stock funds issued, representing 53.77% of the total, while 274 mixed equity funds accounted for 17.64% [1] - The trend towards passive investment has become a core driver, with the introduction of a fast-track approval process for ETFs, allowing for registration within five working days [1] ETF Market - A total of 358 new ETFs were established in 2025, with an issuance volume of 2,581.66 billion units, both figures setting historical records and surpassing the total issuance of the previous two years [1] - Stock ETFs were the mainstay, with 319 stock ETFs issued, totaling 1,629.16 billion units, which constituted 89.1% of the total ETF issuance [2] Institutional Participation - The market concentration for new fund issuance was high, with 133 institutions participating, and 24 of them issuing more than 20 products each [2] - Leading institutions included E Fund with 69 new products, followed by China Universal Fund and Huaxia Fund with 64 and 61 products respectively, focusing on equity and index sectors [2] Market Dynamics - The continuous allocation of long-term funds has strengthened the liquidity and scale advantages of leading ETFs, creating a "Matthew Effect" that attracts more follow-on investments [2] - The introduction of innovative products, such as FOFs, saw explosive growth with 88 new issuances, more than doubling from 2024, and various innovative ETFs catering to diverse investor needs [2] REITs Market - The public REITs market in 2025 witnessed a surge in subscription enthusiasm, with some offerings experiencing subscription multiples in the hundreds, such as 320 times for a commercial REIT and 340 times for a clean energy REIT [3] - By the end of 2025, the domestic public REITs market had 79 products with a total issuance scale exceeding 210 billion yuan, establishing itself as the largest REITs market in Asia and the second largest globally [3] Future Outlook - The fund issuance market for 2026 is set to commence, with 39 new funds expected in the first week, predominantly focusing on equity and FOF funds, with technology sectors being a key area of interest [4]

Core Insights - The public fund issuance market in 2025 showed significant growth, with a total of 1,553 new public fund products established, marking a 35.87% increase from 1,143 in 2024, reaching a four-year high in issuance numbers [1] - The average subscription period for new funds decreased to 16.41 days from 22.63 days in the previous year, indicating heightened market enthusiasm [1] Fund Type Distribution - The majority of new funds were equity funds, with 1,109 equity funds (including stock and mixed equity funds) accounting for 71.41% of the total new funds. Specifically, stock funds numbered 835, making up 53.77%, while mixed equity funds totaled 274, representing 17.64% [3] - Passive index funds emerged as the main contributors to new fund issuance, with 699 new passive index funds, which is 45.01% of the total. Among these, passive index stock funds accounted for 618, while passive index bond funds numbered 66 [3] Market Trends - The issuance of equity funds saw a substantial increase of 56.64% compared to 708 in 2024, with stock funds experiencing a remarkable growth of 75.79%. In contrast, bond fund issuance decreased to 284 from 330, reflecting a clear "strong equity, weak bond" market dynamic [3] - FOF (Fund of Funds) products experienced explosive growth, with 88 new FOF funds launched, a 166.67% increase from 33 in 2024. The issuance volume for new FOFs in 2025 surpassed the total of the previous three years combined, indicating sustained market interest [4] Institutional Dynamics - A total of 133 public fund institutions launched new funds in 2025, with 88 institutions issuing fewer than 10 funds each. Notably, 21 institutions issued between 10 and 19 funds, while 24 institutions launched 20 or more funds [4] - Leading institutions included Yifangda Fund with 69 new funds (50 being stock funds), followed by Fuguo Fund with 64 (44 stock funds), and Huaxia Fund with 61 (42 stock funds). Other notable institutions also launched over 40 new funds, highlighting a concentration effect among top firms in the industry [4]