以下文章来源于不在此山中 ，作者不在此山中 不在此山中 . 记录分享基金投资心得，著有《指数基金投资从入门到精通》(作者:不在此山中)。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 不在此山中 好东西也得有好价格。茅台是好公司，但在2000元的时候买入，和在1000元的时候买入，结局截然不同。 很多亏损，不是因为买到了垃圾股，而是因为买得太贵。 来源：雪球 投资这事儿，说复杂，它确实涉及宏观经济、企业财报、甚至地缘政治；但说简单，它其实只考验三样东西：买入的价格、持仓的结构、持有的耐 心。 抛开各种复杂的术语，普通人想在市场里赚到钱，核心无非是做好三件事。做好了，不敢说赚大钱，至少能睡个安稳觉，大概率跑赢通胀。 第一件事：管住手，别买太贵 怎么判断贵不贵？最直观的尺子是估值指标，比如市盈率。它衡量的是你投入的钱，上市公司要花多少年能赚到。 我们很难直接判断某个估值是高还是低，但通过对比历史可以看一个大概的水位。 以沪深300指数为例，回顾过去十年，它的平均市盈率大概在12倍左右。 如果当下的数值跑到了15倍、16倍，甚至超 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the performance comparison between A-shares and U.S. stocks, indicating that A-shares may not underperform U.S. stocks as commonly perceived [4][6]. - From 2005 to December 5, 2025, the S&P 500 and CSI 300 indices increased by 748.25% and 574.74% respectively, translating to annualized returns of 10.72% and 9.52%, showing that the performance gap is not as significant as believed [7][9]. - The overall growth rate of A-share listed companies from 2005 to present is higher than that of U.S. stocks when excluding valuation changes [11]. Group 2 - The industry distribution of listed companies in both markets is gradually converging, with A-shares showing increasing exposure to technology sectors [12][18]. - The combined weight of Information Technology and Communication Services in the CSI 300 is 22%, while in the broader Chinese equity market, it reaches 30.2%, indicating a shift towards technology [16][18]. - The industry distribution in the Chinese market has evolved significantly since 2011, reflecting the rapid transformation of the Chinese economy [18]. Group 3 - The volatility of A-shares is notably higher than that of U.S. stocks, which affects investor behavior and overall investment experience [21][22]. - To improve the investment experience in A-shares, reducing market volatility is deemed essential, rather than solely focusing on enhancing the fundamentals of listed companies [23][24]. - Recent regulatory measures aim to lower the volatility of A-shares, indicating a potential for improved investor experience in the future [25]. Group 4 - Overall, the long-term performance of A-shares is not significantly inferior to that of U.S. stocks, but the volatility in A-shares has historically led to varied investor experiences [27]. - The trend towards decreasing volatility in A-shares is expected to continue, potentially leading to better investment outcomes for broad market indices [27].

1951 年，就读于普林斯顿大学经济系的约翰 · 博格在准备毕业论文时发现： 如果和指数相比，市场上大多数主动基金并没有赚到更多的钱，即使有少数获得了超越指数的回报，但高昂的管 理费率使得投资者"拿到手"的实际回报低于那"看起来还不错"的市场表现。 1975 年，在金融市场征战 20 多年的博格依旧认为不存在能战胜市场指数的基金，于是他推出了全球第一只指 数基金 —— 先锋 500 指数基金，策略很简单，就是被动地复制标准普尔 500 指数。 基金起初打算募集 1.5 亿美元，但由于当时大多数投资者认为自己能够战胜市场，并对这一"非美国式"的投资 方式并不感冒，所以最终只募集到 1100 万美元，博格也因此遭到了整条华尔街的嘲笑，这些精英们称之为 "博 格的荒唐事" 。 中证 A500 的编制规则要求，指数采用行业均衡选样方法，从各行业选取市值较大、流动性较好的 500 只证券 作为指数样本，以反映各行业最具代表性上市公司证券的整体表现，最终同时覆盖 91 个中证三级行业。 但后来我们也知道，指数行业如火如荼的发展以及标普 500 指数的超强表现 （截至 2024 年，指数自 1957 年 发布以来累计上涨 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline, with the CSI All Share Index dropping by approximately 1% [1] - Global stock markets have shown significant volatility, with Japanese and Korean stocks falling over 3% [3][4] - Various asset classes, including gold and cryptocurrencies, also exhibited considerable fluctuations, often linked to liquidity crises [5][6] Federal Reserve Impact - Concerns are rising regarding the Federal Reserve's potential pause on interest rate cuts from December to the first half of next year, which may tighten global market liquidity in the short term [7] - Historically, such liquidity tightening has typically had a short-term impact on markets [8] - The Federal Reserve is expected to enter a phase of interest rate cuts eventually, as the current dollar interest rates remain relatively high, leading to significant interest payment pressures on U.S. Treasury bonds [9][10] A-share Market Dynamics - Large-cap stocks in the A-share market experienced a smaller decline compared to mid and small-cap stocks, which saw more significant drops [11] - Value style stocks exhibited greater volatility today [12] - The low volatility dividend and free cash flow indices in the Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen market have returned to undervaluation after a decline [13] Investment Strategies - The dividend and free cash flow indices saw a surge in October and November, reaching historical highs, with many stocks moving from undervaluation to normal valuation [14][15] - Currently, these indices are fluctuating around undervaluation and normal valuation levels [16] - The upcoming December index rebalancing will involve selecting a basket of stocks with low valuations, which may lead to a further decrease in valuations [17][18][19] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong stock market also faced declines, with greater volatility than the A-share market [20] - Funds containing Hong Kong stocks experienced significant fluctuations today [21] - Technology stocks in Hong Kong fell over 2%, currently positioned at normal to low valuation levels, suggesting a need for patience [22] Investment Recommendations - The index enhancement investment strategy has returned to normal valuation, prompting a pause in dollar-cost averaging while maintaining positions [24] - The actively selected investment strategy continues normal dollar-cost averaging, though it is nearing normal valuation [24] - The monthly salary investment strategy, which consists of 40% stocks and 60% bonds, is recommended for stable market participation with low risk [24] Pension Fund Insights - The pension index fund investment strategy has been ongoing, with a focus on combinations like the CSI A500 and CSI Dividend indices, representing growth and value strategies respectively [40][41] - Both categories have shown strong performance phases this year, with the CSI A500 yielding approximately 22% and the CSI Dividend around 10% [44] - The strategy emphasizes patience for future undervaluation opportunities, reinforcing the notion that long-term investment success relies on capital availability rather than a lack of opportunities [49]

Group 1 - The article discusses various investment styles, particularly focusing on "deep growth" stocks, which are less common in funds but prevalent in new stocks on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the ChiNext Board [4] - "Growth" style stocks are characterized by high revenue and profit growth, often trading at significantly higher valuations than the market average, with typical price-to-earnings ratios ranging from 40 to 50 times [6][7] - "Growth value" style stocks are in a mature phase with slowing revenue growth but can maintain profitability through cost control, often represented by high ROE stocks in sectors like consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, and technology [8][10] Group 2 - "Deep value" style stocks show stable dividends and high dividend yields, with performance expected to be strong from 2022 to 2024, reflecting a trend of style rotation in the A-share market [11][12] - The article highlights a historical performance pattern where growth styles dominated from 2019 to 2021, while value styles are expected to be strong from 2022 to 2024, with a potential shift back to growth styles in 2025 [12][13] - Understanding the characteristics of different styles allows for strategic adjustments in portfolio allocation based on valuation opportunities [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the Shanghai Composite Index, emphasizing the importance of maintaining investment discipline and focusing on long-term value rather than short-term market volatility [3][6][10]. Market Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index has experienced increased volatility as it surpasses key levels such as 3500, 3600, 3700, and 3800 points, with average daily fluctuations rising significantly [4][5]. - Historical data shows that market corrections often occur around these integer levels, driven by profit-taking behaviors from investors [5][10]. Long-term Investment Perspective - Over the past 20 years, the Wind All A Index has shown a cumulative increase of 807.99% with an annualized return of 12.01%, outperforming other asset classes like gold and bonds [8][9]. - The sustained growth of quality listed companies in China is a key driver behind these returns, highlighting the importance of long-term holding strategies [10]. Investment Strategy - The article advocates for a core-satellite investment strategy, which combines stable broad-based indices with high-potential assets to capture structural opportunities while managing overall portfolio volatility [11][12]. - Investors are encouraged to focus on asset allocation that reflects their risk tolerance, including exposure to broad indices like CSI A500 and Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 [12].

Market Overview - The market experienced a pullback today, with the CSI All Share Index down by 1.74%, returning to a rating of 4.3 stars [1] - Large-cap stocks saw slight declines, while small-cap stocks experienced more significant drops [2] - Recent market trends indicate rapid style rotation [3][8] Style Rotation - The previously underperforming value style saw gains today, while the growth style, which had performed well yesterday, faced declines [4][6] - Value and dividend indices showed slight increases, with the banking index rising significantly [5] - The ChiNext and STAR Market experienced notable declines [7] Growth and Value Dynamics - The growth and value styles frequently switch, with a notable speed of change [9] - This year, growth styles have led the market, with some STAR Market indices reaching overvalued levels [10] - The ChiNext has seen less growth compared to the STAR Market but has still achieved a relatively high valuation [11] Volatility and Valuation - Following the increase in valuations, the volatility of growth styles is expected to be higher than last year's undervalued state [12] - Investors should prepare psychologically for market fluctuations [13] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong stock market also experienced an overall decline, but the drop was less severe compared to the A-share market [14] - The Hang Seng Index showed slight declines but remained relatively resilient [15] Investment Strategies - The article discusses various investment strategies, including a pause in regular investments for certain indices that have returned to normal valuations, with a focus on maintaining positions until undervalued opportunities arise [17][25] - The "Monthly Salary Treasure" investment strategy, which consists of 40% stocks and 60% bonds, is highlighted as a stable market participation method [45][46] Pension Fund Insights - The article provides insights into personal pension fund investments, emphasizing the importance of patience and the potential for future undervalued opportunities [39][40] - The performance of selected pension index funds, such as the CSI A500 and CSI Dividend, is noted, with the former showing a 19% profit and the latter around 6% [38]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing style rotation, with different styles showing performance at various stages, while value style tends to be more stable during market fluctuations [4][5]. Market Performance - The market index reached a peak of 4.2 stars during the day but closed at 4.3 stars, indicating a slight pullback [1][2]. - Large-cap stocks experienced a decline, while small-cap stocks showed minimal volatility [3]. - The recent market trend indicates that consumer sectors have started to gain momentum [9]. Investment Strategies - The Free Cash Flow Index, which had been underperforming, has recently started to gain traction and is currently undervalued, approaching normal valuation levels [6][7]. - The "Monthly Salary Treasure" product, which has a significant value style component, also saw an increase today [8]. - The investment strategy includes pausing contributions to the index-enhanced advisory portfolio as it returns to normal valuation, while continuing regular investments in the actively selected advisory portfolio [15]. Personal Pension Fund Insights - The recent performance of the China Securities A500 and China Securities Dividend indices has returned to normal valuation, leading to a pause in contributions until they become undervalued again [22][23]. - The A500 index has shown a profit of 17% and the Dividend index approximately 7% over the past seven months of investment [23]. Valuation Metrics - The article provides a detailed valuation table for various indices, highlighting metrics such as price-to-earnings ratio, price-to-book ratio, and dividend yield for different investment products [24][31]. - The investment star rating system indicates that a 5-star rating represents the best investment stage, while a 1-star rating indicates a bubble phase [33].

Group 1 - A fund company announced on August 11 that it purchased no less than 230 million in its index funds, indicating strong confidence in the market despite the index being at 3600 points [1] - The market showed significant strength with a notable rise in the stock of Cambrian, which hit the daily limit due to increased procurement volume for the second half of the year, boosting market sentiment [3] - The announcement of a 90-day delay on tariffs by Trump has positively impacted market expectations, reinforcing the notion of a bullish trend supported by fundamental factors [3] Group 2 - The current market environment is characterized by ample liquidity due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and domestic policies aimed at expanding credit and stimulating domestic demand, which is expected to attract external capital into the A-share market [5] - The positive shift in domestic technology narratives suggests that A-shares still offer investment value, enhancing the potential for profit in the current market cycle [5]

Market Overview - The market experienced a V-shaped movement today, with an overall decline in the morning followed by a rebound in the afternoon, maintaining a rating of 4.8 stars [1] - The CSI 300 index saw a slight increase, while small and medium-sized stocks experienced a minor decline [2] - Both value and growth styles faced declines [3] Banking Sector - The banking index has shown significant volatility in recent days [4] - Last Friday, the banking index reached a high valuation before undergoing a correction [5] Growth Sectors - The ChiNext and other growth styles saw an increase [6] - Hong Kong stocks remained relatively strong, with a significant rise occurring after the close of A-shares, particularly in technology stocks, which led to a more than 2.5% increase in the Hong Kong technology index [6] Industry Recovery - In this bear market, the technology and pharmaceutical sectors were the first to show signs of earnings recovery [7] - In the first quarter of this year, the technology and pharmaceutical sectors experienced year-on-year profit growth, contributing to the rise in Hong Kong's technology and pharmaceutical stocks [8]