1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The ICE canola futures closed higher on September 10 but remained near the bottom of the downtrend since late June. The good weather and high excellent rate in the US soybean - producing areas bring supply - side pressure, but the unexpected reduction in planting area supports the price. The market focuses on the USDA report this month, which is expected to lower the US soybean yield per acre. [2] - For rapeseed meal, the shortage of near - month rapeseed arrivals in China reduces supply pressure, and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand boosts its consumption. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed also affect the supply and price. [2] - For rapeseed oil, the terminal consumption boost from the start of school is limited, and the domestic vegetable oil supply - demand is still loose, which restricts short - term prices. But the low oil - mill operating rate and fewer near - month rapeseed purchases reduce supply pressure. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed also restricts purchases. The market is volatile due to international trade relations, and short - term participation is recommended. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil was 9893 yuan/ton, up 123 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 2567 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE canola futures was 628.2 Canadian dollars/ton, up 9.8 Canadian dollars. [2] - Spreads: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (1 - 5) was 346 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (1 - 5) was 147 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan. [2] - Positions: The main - contract positions of rapeseed oil were 286194 lots, up 31047 lots; those of rapeseed meal were 407316 lots, up 20610 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were 18355 lots, up 12961 lots; for rapeseed meal, it was - 5220 lots, up 9 lots. [2] - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 6953; that of rapeseed meal was 9.8. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9940 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2630 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of rapeseed oil was 10005 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed was 7810.05 yuan/ton, up 75.88 yuan. [2] - Price differences: The oil - meal ratio was 3.71, up 0.01. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 47 yuan/ton, down 93 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 63 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1410 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 720 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 400 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast was 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production was 12378 thousand tons, unchanged. [2] - Imports: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month was 17.6 million tons, down 0.85 million tons. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month was 15 million tons, up 4 million tons; that of rapeseed meal was 27.03 million tons, up 7.56 million tons. [2] - Inventory and operating rate: The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 10 million tons, unchanged. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 13.06%, up 1.07 percentage points. The import rapeseed crushing profit was 858 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 9.7 million tons, down 0.7 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 1.8 million tons, down 0.7 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 53.2 million tons, down 2.2 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 31.51 million tons, up 0.65 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 4.55 million tons, down 0.3 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 21.3 million tons, up 1.3 million tons. [2] -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 3.03 million tons, up 0.77 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 2.74 million tons, down 0.15 million tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed was 2827.3 million tons, down 110.4 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 476.9 million tons, up 41.8 million tons. [2] - Consumption: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4504.1 billion yuan, down 203.5 billion yuan. [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 18.18%, down 1.16 percentage points; that of put options was 18.19%, down 1.16 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 13.01%, down 0.74 percentage points; that of put options was 13.03%, down 0.7 percentage points. [2] - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 18.15%, down 2.13 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 22.1%, up 0.12 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 8.26%, down 3.65 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 13.01%, unchanged. [2] 3.7 Industry News - ICE canola futures closed higher on September 10 but remained near the bottom of the downtrend since late June. The 11 - month contract rose 8.40 Canadian dollars to 628.10 Canadian dollars/ton, and the 1 - month contract rose 10.70 Canadian dollars to 640.70 Canadian dollars/ton. [2] - The good weather in the US soybean - producing areas and high excellent rate bring supply - side pressure, but the unexpected reduction in planting area supports the price. The market focuses on the USDA report this month, which is expected to lower the US soybean yield per acre. [2] - The US senator tried to stop the Trump administration from adjusting the renewable fuel obligation policy, which led to the decline of US soybean oil futures and affected the domestic vegetable oil market sentiment. [2]

Core Viewpoint - The South African government is actively engaging with the United States regarding the recently imposed tariffs, emphasizing that it will not compromise its stance in trade negotiations [1] Group 1: Government Actions - South African President Ramaphosa stated that government representatives are in contact with U.S. officials, Congress members, and business leaders to advance formal negotiations aimed at achieving mutually beneficial trade and investment agreements [1] - The South African government is determined to maintain a strong position in negotiations, asserting that it will not bow down or compromise its principles [1] Group 2: Tariff Details - On July 31, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order announcing tariff rates applicable to goods from 69 trade partners, including South Africa [1] - A 30% "reciprocal tariff" on South African goods took effect on August 7 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The South African government is actively engaging with the United States regarding the newly imposed tariffs, emphasizing that it will not compromise its position in trade negotiations [1]. Group 1: Government Actions - South African President Ramaphosa stated that government representatives are in contact with U.S. officials, Congress members, and business leaders to advance formal negotiations aimed at achieving mutually beneficial trade and investment agreements [1]. - The South African government is determined to maintain a strong stance in negotiations, asserting that it will not bow down or compromise its dignity [1]. Group 2: Tariff Details - On July 31, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order announcing tariff rates applicable to goods from 69 trade partners, including South Africa [1]. - The U.S. imposed a 30% "reciprocal tariff" on South African goods, which took effect on August 7 [1].

Group 1 - India aims to reach a bilateral trade agreement with the U.S. by November, indicating a significant concession from the Modi government [1][3] - Indian Commerce Minister Goyal expressed the desire to restore trade negotiations, reflecting a shift in India's stance after facing U.S. tariffs [3][18] - The U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods, raising the total tariff rate to 50% on over 55% of Indian exports to the U.S., severely impacting labor-intensive sectors like textiles and jewelry [11][12] Group 2 - The trade dispute has led to a slowdown in India's GDP growth, potentially dropping below 6%, marking the lowest level since the pandemic [15][21] - India's military procurement has been affected, with delays in acquiring U.S. weapons systems due to the trade tensions, impacting military modernization efforts [21] - The loss of market share in the U.S. for Indian textiles and jewelry is significant, as the high tariffs effectively block these products from entering the market [23]

Group 1 - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Howard Ratnik, predicts that India is likely to resume trade negotiations with the U.S. within two months, following a recent imposition of retaliatory tariffs by the U.S. on Indian products [2] - The U.S. has started imposing a 50% retaliatory tariff on Indian products since August 27, which is part of the ongoing trade tensions between the two countries [2] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Benset, has reiterated plans to increase tariffs on India, accusing the country of profiting from cheap oil imports from Russia during the Ukraine war [3] Group 2 - India is strengthening its cooperation with Russia, with the intent to benefit its large refining industry rather than meeting domestic demand for oil [3] - On September 3, the Indian government announced a reduction in the Goods and Services Tax (GST) rates from four brackets to two, aiming to stimulate domestic demand and mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs [3] - The new GST rates, effective from September 22, will cover a wide range of products, with significant reductions in tax rates for items such as air conditioners and televisions, potentially decreasing from 28% to 18% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Spot freight rates are continuously falling, near - month contracts are declining, and the market is in the bottom - building process with large recent fluctuations. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [2]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Content Freight Rate Index - On September 1, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1773.60 points, down 10.9% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1013.90 points, down 2.6% from the previous period [3]. - On August 29, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1098.17 points, up 6.02% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period [3]. - On August 29, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period [3]. - On August 29, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August was 50.5, the service PMI was 50.7, and the composite PMI was 51.1, with the composite PMI rising for three consecutive months and reaching the highest since May 2024 [3]. - China's manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - The preliminary values of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI and Markit manufacturing PMI in August were both 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high; the service PMI was 55.4 [4]. Market Strategy - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to take a light - position trial long at around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase positions at around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Given the volatile international situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines or make light - position attempts [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. Contract Information - On September 4, the main contract 2510 closed at 1300.7, down 1.77%, with a trading volume of 25,800 lots and an open interest of 50,000 lots, a decrease of 1983 lots from the previous day [5]. - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the company's margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5]. Geopolitical Events - On September 4, the Houthi armed forces launched a military operation against Israel, targeting Ben - Gurion International Airport near Tel Aviv with a "Zulfiqar" ballistic missile, which hit the target [5]. - On September 3, the Israeli Defense Forces and the Shin Bet announced that they had killed a leader of the "Jihad Brigades" in the Gaza Strip [5].

Group 1 - The trade negotiations between the US and China are currently stalled, which is seen as beneficial for China as it enhances its competitive position in global trade [1] - The US's inability to increase tariffs on Chinese goods means that the burden of tariffs will shift to other countries, thereby reducing their trade competitiveness and indirectly boosting China's competitiveness [1] - Trump's attempts to impose high tariffs on China are hindered by rising inflation and supply chain instability in the US, which makes Chinese products more accessible in the US market [1] Group 2 - The "tariff truce" between the US and China may influence upcoming US-Russia presidential talks, as Trump expresses a desire for a meeting between Putin and Zelensky [3] - Trump's signing of the "tariff truce" indicates his struggle to manage the trade conflict with China, leading him to seek a resolution in the Russia-Ukraine situation to free up resources for the trade battle [3] - Putin is likely aware of Trump's reliance on him for negotiations, which may allow him to leverage more conditions during the talks [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **General Market Situation**: The international rapeseed futures market rebounded technically, while the domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal markets are affected by factors such as import policies, supply and demand, and international trade relations. The market volatility has increased, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In the international market, the expected high yield of US soybeans brings supply - side pressure, but the reduction in planting area provides support. In the domestic market, the decrease in near - month rapeseed arrivals, the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand, and the anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed weaken the supply. However, the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Internationally, concerns about palm oil production and strong export data affect the market. Domestically, the off - season of oil consumption and sufficient supply restrain prices. But low oil mill operating rates and reduced near - month rapeseed purchases ease supply pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 9727 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2521 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan. The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) was 629.4 Canadian dollars/ton, up 1.9 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) was 5496 yuan/ton, up 785 yuan [2]. - **Spreads and Positions**: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (1 - 5) was 169 yuan/ton, unchanged; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (1 - 5) was 115 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were - 6931 lots, down 8304 lots; for rapeseed meal, they were - 15798 lots, up 11682 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 4487 pieces, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts was 5041 pieces, down 1000 pieces [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9870 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9935 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed was 7896.61 yuan/ton, up 28.48 yuan [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The oil - meal ratio was 3.73, up 0.02; the basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 143 yuan/ton, up 79 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract was 79 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1240 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 470 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 450 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production forecast was 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production was 12378 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume was 17.6 tons, down 0.85 tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 15 tons, up 4 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal was 27.03 tons, up 7.56 tons [2]. - **Profit and Operating Rates**: The import rapeseed crushing profit was 733 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan; the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 15 tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 11.99%, down 0.8% [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.4 tons, down 0.1 tons; the East China rapeseed oil inventory was 55.4 tons, down 0.1 tons; the Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 4.85 tons, down 0.05 tons. The coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 1.8 tons, up 0.4 tons; the East China rapeseed meal inventory was 30.86 tons, down 2 tons; the South China rapeseed meal inventory was 20 tons, down 1.4 tons [2]. - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil was 2.26 tons, down 0.55 tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal was 2.89 tons, up 0.1 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - **Production and Consumption**: The monthly output of feed was 2827.3 tons, down 110.4 tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 476.9 tons, up 41.8 tons. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4504.1 billion yuan, down 203.5 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - **Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 19.48%, down 0.05%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 19.47%, down 0.06%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 32.19%, down 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 21.91%, up 0.04%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 12.14%, down 0.98%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 12.15%, down 0.97%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 18.35%, down 0.57%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 14.38%, down 0.12% [2]. Industry News - The ICE rapeseed futures rebounded technically on September 2, with the most actively traded November contract rising 3.90 Canadian dollars to settle at 630.30 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The Pro Farmer report predicted that the average yield of US soybeans would reach a record high of 53.0 bushels per acre, with a total output of 4.246 billion bushels, indicating stable crop potential and supply - side pressure [2]. - Statistics Canada predicted that the rapeseed production in Canada in 2025 would increase by 3.6% to 19.9 million tons, and China's anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed might affect its exports [2]. - The expansion of protests in Indonesia raised concerns about palm oil production and transportation, while strong export data from Malaysia supported the palm oil market [2].

Group 1 - The atmosphere in Washington was tense during the recent talks, with the Chinese delegation emphasizing mutual respect and cooperation, while the U.S. was reluctant to acknowledge its urgent need for negotiations [1][9] - The U.S. aims to lift restrictions on rare earth exports and increase agricultural purchases from China, but China is cautious and has not fully agreed to U.S. demands [3][6] - The U.S. is attempting to restrict Chinese access to AI chips, viewing this as a critical aspect of a broader technological and political struggle [3][5] Group 2 - The U.S. tariffs imposed under Trump's administration have negatively impacted American consumers and businesses, leading to a decline in domestic car sales and increased production costs for products like iPhones [5][6] - China has shifted its market dynamics, relying less on U.S. agricultural products due to competitive pricing from countries like Brazil and Argentina [6][8] - The recent court ruling against Trump's tariffs highlights internal divisions within the U.S. government, contrasting with China's strategic stability and resilience [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Gold futures prices have strongly broken through, with London spot gold surpassing the $3,500 per ounce mark and COMEX gold futures hitting a new high. Multiple institutions predict that after a four - month consolidation, precious metals may start a new upward trend. Morgan Stanley has set the year - end target price of gold at $3,800 per ounce [1]. - In 2025, domestic liquidity remains loose, and it is in a policy window period. More incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year to boost the real economy. The external risks are gradually easing, and the probability of a Fed rate cut in September increases, enhancing the attractiveness of RMB assets. The current market is at the resonance of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", and the market trend is likely to continue [3][9][10]. 3. Summaries by Catalog a. Key Varieties - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are strengthening, and gold shows a convergent breakthrough. Trump's attempt to fire Fed governors and the USGS's proposal on silver import tariffs, along with dovish signals from the Fed and weak employment data, are positive for precious metals. However, inflation rebound, geopolitical risk reduction, and other factors limit the upside of gold. In the long - term, gold is still supported [2][18]. - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes declined. The previous trading day saw index differentiation, with small and medium - cap stocks correcting significantly. The domestic market has a high probability of continued market trends, but one needs to adapt to accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation. Different indexes have different characteristics in terms of risk and return [3][9][10]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night. The concentrate supply is tight, but the smelting output continues to grow. Multiple factors are intertwined, and the copper price may fluctuate within a range [3][19]. b. Main News on the Day - **International News**: Trump's government will request the Supreme Court to expedite the ruling on the global tariff case to overturn the federal court's decision that multiple tariffs are illegal. Market analysts believe that corporate bond issuance and budget concerns in developed countries are the main reasons for the stock market decline [4]. - **Domestic News**: China will expand the scope of visa - free countries, implementing a visa - free policy for Russian ordinary passport holders from September 15, 2025, to September 14, 2026 [5]. - **Industry News**: In August 2025, there were 2.65 million new A - share accounts, a year - on - year and month - on - month significant increase [6]. c. Daily Gains of Overseas Markets - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various overseas market varieties on September 1 and 2, 2025, including the FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, etc. [7] d. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes declined, and the domestic market has a high probability of continued trends, with different indexes having different risk - return characteristics [9][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds fell slightly. The market funds are loosening, and the equity market is volatile. The stock - bond seesaw effect continues, and one should pay attention to the impact of the equity market on the bond market [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose at night. Geopolitical factors affect oil exports, and the OPEC and its allies will discuss production policies. One should follow up on OPEC's production increase [12]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate and coal - to - olefin plant operating rate changed, and the coastal inventory is at a relatively high level. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short term [13]. - **Other Energy and Chemical Products**: Rubber may continue to correct in the short term; polyolefin prices are generally weak; glass and soda ash futures are weak, and the market focuses on supply - side contraction and consumption in autumn [14][16][17]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are strengthening, with multiple factors influencing their trends, and the market focuses on this week's non - farm payroll data [18]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night, with multiple factors affecting it, and it may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Other Metals**: Zinc may fluctuate weakly within a range; the short - term trend of lithium carbonate is affected by emotions, and one should be cautious about short - selling; iron ore is expected to be bullish in the medium - term; the steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand; double - coking products are in a high - level oscillation state; protein meal is expected to fluctuate narrowly; oils and fats are expected to continue to oscillate; sugar and cotton are expected to maintain an oscillating trend; the container shipping European line may oscillate in the short term [20][22][23].