Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Both stock index and treasury bonds are rated as "Oscillating" [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar is rated as "Temporarily on the sidelines", iron ore as "Oscillating", and coking coal and coke as "Oscillating" [1][8][10] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is rated as "Range trading or on the sidelines", aluminum as "Buy on dips after a pullback", nickel as "Short on rallies or on the sidelines", tin as "Range trading", gold as "Range trading", and silver as "Range trading" [1][12][14][19] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are rated as "Oscillating"; polyolefin as "Wide - range oscillating"; soda ash's 09 contract as "Maintain short position" [1][23][25][28][33][34][36] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are rated as "Oscillating adjustment", apple and jujube as "Oscillating weakly" [1][38][39] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Live pigs are rated as "Short on rallies", eggs as "Short on rallies", corn as "Range oscillating", soybean meal as "Limited upside", and oils as "High - level correction risk increasing" [1][40][42][44][46][48] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trading suggestions for various futures products based on market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It also analyzes the influencing factors of each product's price movement, including macro - economic data, policy changes, and industry - specific events [1][6][8][12] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Due to weak US non - farm payroll data, internal strife within the Fed, high domestic margin trading, and the approaching mid - report disclosure period, the stock index is expected to oscillate [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: After a volatile week, the market is tired, and the stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious. After the market shock and repair caused by anti - involution expectations and Politburo Meeting uncertainties end, treasury bonds are expected to oscillate [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price oscillated weakly last Friday. With over - optimistic macro expectations cooling and balanced supply - demand, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [8] - **Iron Ore**: In July, the iron ore market first rose and then fell. With increasing overseas supply and expected decline in iron water demand, it is expected to oscillate strongly and can be used as a long - leg configuration when shorting other black varieties [8][9] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal supply has disturbances, and demand has rigid support. Coke supply has limited increase, and demand is strong. Both are expected to oscillate, and short - term key factors need to be closely monitored [10][11] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Due to the Fed's stance divergence, weak US economic data, and domestic industry policies, copper supply has disturbances, but it is in the off - season, and overseas inventory may flow back. Copper is expected to oscillate weakly, with support at 77600 [12] - **Aluminum**: With rising bauxite prices in Guinea and changes in supply and demand of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, it is recommended to buy on dips after a pullback [14] - **Nickel**: In the medium - to - long term, the nickel industry has over - supply, and demand growth is limited. It is recommended to short on rallies, with a reference range of 118000 - 124000 yuan/ton for the main contract [19] - **Tin**: With improving tin ore supply and weak downstream demand, it is recommended for range trading, with a reference range of 250,000 - 272,000 yuan/ton for the 09 contract [20] - **Gold and Silver**: After the weak US non - farm payroll data, the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut has increased. However, considering the Fed's stance and concerns about the US fiscal situation, it is recommended to buy on dips after a pullback [21][22] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high upstream production pressure, uncertain export sustainability, and insufficient fundamental support, it is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the 09 contract focusing on 4950 - 5150 [23][24] - **Caustic Soda**: With high supply, rigid but slow - growing demand, and the influence of macro factors, it is expected to oscillate, with the 09 contract focusing on 2500 - 2600 [25][26] - **Styrene**: With limited fundamental positives and a warming macro - environment, it is expected to oscillate, focusing on 7200 - 7500 [28][29] - **Rubber**: With high raw material costs and inventory changes, rubber is expected to oscillate, with pressure at 15000 [30][32] - **Urea**: With a slight decrease in supply, increasing demand from compound fertilizer enterprises, and stable industrial demand, it is expected to first weaken and then strengthen, with support at 1700 - 1730 and pressure at 1820 - 1850 [33] - **Methanol**: With a slight increase in supply, stable demand from methanol - to - olefins, and weak traditional demand, it is expected to oscillate in the short term [34][35] - **Polyolefin**: Affected by macro factors and cost support, with weak demand in the off - season and slight inventory reduction, it is expected to correct in the short term, with the L2509 contract focusing on 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract on 6900 - 7200 [35][36] - **Soda Ash**: With increasing supply and weak demand, the 09 contract is recommended to maintain a short position [36][37] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: With an increase in global cotton production and consumption in the new season, and weak downstream consumption, it is expected to oscillate and adjust [38] - **Apple**: With slow apple shipments and normal new - fruit growth, prices are under pressure and are expected to oscillate weakly [38][39] - **Jujube**: With the growth of jujube trees in Xinjiang and changes in the market supply and demand in the sales area, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [39] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: With increasing supply and weak demand, the futures are under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 and 01 contracts and pay attention to the 05 - 03 spread arbitrage [40][42] - **Eggs**: With short - term seasonal factors and long - term supply pressure, it is recommended to short on rallies for the 09 contract and go long on dips for the 12 and 01 contracts [42][44] - **Corn**: With short - term supply - demand games and long - term supply tightening, it is recommended for range trading and to pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse spread arbitrage [44][45] - **Soybean Meal**: With sufficient supply in the short term and potential supply gaps in the long term, it is recommended to be cautious about going long in the short term and go long on dips in the long term [46][47] - **Oils**: With increasing short - term correction risks and limited correction amplitudes, it is recommended to take profits on existing long positions and pay attention to the soybean - palm oil 09 spread rebound strategy [48][52]

加拿大贸易部长：与美国的贸易谈判仍在进行中，但渥太华不会屈服于关税压力。 ...

前几天中国和美国关于贸易关税方面的谈判，从目前的情况来看，没有取得实质性的进展，甚至可以说是不欢而散。美国谈判团队事后甚至放出话来，说有 可能再把对中国的关税税率提高到之前的三位数。最终的决定权还是放在了总统特朗普的手中。 而我国对于美国的这个态度回应的也非常直接，很明确的摆出了"谈，大门敞开，打，奉陪到底"的姿态。30号当天，我们谈判单位也对外发布消息。 特朗普在关税贸易方面针对我国显然已经编织好了一个大网，现在这个大网开始想要往回收了。 明确表示中美将会继续推行暂停关税等措施如期展期，但与此同时中国的反制计划也如期展期！ 考虑到这场关税战主要是由美国人发起来的，所以基本上能够判定，在这次中美之间的谈判中，美国不想做出过多的让步，仍然想站在世界大国和主要经济 体的高度上，取得更多的优势。而这次和我国之间的谈判结束之后，目前美国在我国周边，围绕着关税战又做出了两个比较重大的动作。这两个动作分别针 对我们的邻国印度和邻近国家韩国。 先来说印度，特朗普7月30号通过社交媒体对外表示，美国将会加征印度25%的关税，时间是从8月1号开始。 而特朗普给出的原因，是印度因不当行为要加收额外的惩罚性费用。 美国和印度之间的 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on Indian goods starting August 1, which is seen as a punitive measure by President Trump due to high Indian tariffs and India's purchase of Russian oil and weapons [1][3] - Indian opposition parties are criticizing Prime Minister Modi's foreign policy, arguing that the friendship with Trump has not protected India's national interests, with significant potential damage to trade and local businesses [1][3] - The Indian think tank's founder indicates that the tariffs are part of a pressure strategy, with no products exempt from the new tariffs, suggesting that India is being used as a negative example for other countries [3] Group 2 - Current estimates suggest that India's exports to the U.S. could decline by 30% in the fiscal year ending March 2026, dropping from $86.5 billion to $60.6 billion, with oil products, pharmaceuticals, and electronics being the most affected categories [3] - Ongoing bilateral trade negotiations aim to increase trade to $500 billion by 2030, but significant disagreements remain, particularly in agriculture and dairy sectors, which are politically sensitive in India [4] - The Indian government is reviewing the impact of the new tariffs and is collecting feedback from exporters and industry groups to take necessary measures to protect national interests [4]

【环球网报道】综合美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)、英国广播公司（BBC）的报道，加拿大商会总裁兼首 席执行官坎达丝·莱恩当地时间7月31日抨击美国总统特朗普对加拿大加征关税的决定，称其上调关税的 理由"没有事实依据"。 7月31日稍早，特朗普签署行政令，将对加拿大的关税税率从25%上调至35%。这一更高税率将于当地 时间8月1日正式生效。白宫提到，征收新关税的部分原因是加拿大在打击芬太尼从加拿大流入美国问题 上"不作为"。 对于美方加征关税的理由，莱恩在一份声明中表示，相关说法"没有事实依据"。声明称，更多没有事实 根据的关税动荡不会促进北美的经济安全。加拿大和美国的企业迫切需要确定性。 7月31日，特朗普接受美国全国广播公司（NBC）电话采访时表示，他愿意与加拿大继续进行贸易谈 判。 早在7月10日晚，卡尼就曾在社交媒体发文回应美方宣布自8月1日起对加拿大商品加征35%关税的决 定。卡尼表示，将在与美国的谈判中，继续捍卫加拿大工人和企业的利益，并努力在截止日期前达成协 议。他还表示将加强与世界各地贸易伙伴的关系，以应对美方关税威胁。 ...

20250801申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 林新杰（从业编号：F3032999 交易咨询号：Z0014722） linxj@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50586279 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪金2510 | 沪金2512 | 沪银2510 | 沪银2512 | | | | 现价 | 770.92 | 773.12 | 8935.00 | 8957.00 | | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 770.28 | 772.24 | 9008.00 | 9033.00 | | | 货 | 涨跌 | 0.64 | 0.88 | -73.00 | -76.00 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | 0.08% | 0.11% | -0.81% | -0.84% | | | 场 | | | | | | | | | 持仓量 | 217080 | 119395 | 371110 | 210165 | | | | 成交量 | 260701 | 36959 | 1100640 | 141471 | | ...

根据特朗普最新的行政令，新关税要到8月7日才会生效（新税率适用于此后进入消费或从仓库提取以供消费的货物），而不是之前的8月1日，再次留下关税谈判的时间窗口。白宫官员也表示，希望在新的关税实施日期8月7日之前，与各国达成更多协议。 https://t.co/UAGTqkmETQ外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):特朗普签署行政令，确定了对多个国家和地区征收的“对等关税”税率，具体税率从10%至41%不等，其中对瑞士征收39%的关税。 https://t.co/whZKuBskQe ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The official manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.3 in July, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector, with the new orders index dropping to 49.4, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [1] - The National Council meeting approved policies to implement personal consumption loan interest subsidies and service industry loan interest subsidies as part of the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative [1] Group 2: Stock Market Insights - The three major U.S. stock indices declined, with significant pullbacks in the steel and non-ferrous metal sectors, while the computer and communication sectors saw gains, with a market turnover of 1.96 trillion yuan [2][8] - The financing balance increased by 2.174 billion yuan to 1.970595 trillion yuan on July 30, indicating a growing interest in long-term capital allocation in the current low-risk interest rate environment [2][8] - The A-share market is viewed as having high investment value, particularly the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are expected to benefit from technology innovation policies [2][8] Group 3: Commodity Market Analysis - Glass futures continued to decline, with production enterprise inventories at 51.78 million heavy boxes, down 1.56 million boxes week-on-week, indicating a supply contraction and improved market expectations [3][13] - The pure soda ash futures also saw a decline, with inventories at 1.684 million tons, down 104,000 tons week-on-week, suggesting a similar trend of inventory digestion in the market [3][13] Group 4: Precious Metals - Gold prices experienced a rebound after a dip, while silver continued to decline, influenced by a divided stance within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions [4][15] - The U.S. economic data showed resilience, with a rebound in CPI, and ongoing pressure from former President Trump on the Fed to lower interest rates, contributing to the volatility in precious metals [4][15] Group 5: Industry News - In the first half of the year, China's renewable energy installed capacity increased by 268 million kilowatts, a year-on-year growth of 99.3%, accounting for 91.5% of the new installed capacity [7] - The new energy storage installed capacity reached 94.91 million kilowatts, showing a growth of approximately 29% compared to the end of 2024 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the extension of the tariff agreement between the United States and Mexico, highlighting the implications for trade and the ongoing negotiations between the two countries [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Agreement Details - On July 31, President Trump announced a 90-day extension of the existing tariff agreement with Mexico, maintaining a 25% tariff on Mexican goods unless they comply with the USMCA [1][2]. - In addition to the 25% overall tariff, Mexican goods face a 25% tariff on automotive imports and a 50% tariff on metal products such as steel, aluminum, and copper [3]. - Trump had previously threatened to increase the unified tariff rate on Mexican imports from 25% to 30%, but decided to postpone any new tariff measures following a successful phone call with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum [3]. Group 2: Trade Relations and Dependencies - The U.S. has increasingly relied on Mexico for various goods, including automobiles, electronics, footwear, and apparel, with Mexico becoming the largest source of imports for the U.S. in 2023 [4]. - Mexico is also a significant export market for U.S. goods, second only to Canada, and has not retaliated against the tariffs imposed by Trump so far [5]. - However, President Sheinbaum has indicated that Mexico would respond with higher tariffs on U.S. goods if Trump increases tariffs on Mexican products [5].

白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗 ：正在推进与印度、加拿大的贸易谈判取得的进展。 ...