Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company finished the year strong with robust loan and core deposit growth, net interest margin expansion, and higher fee income [4] - Net interest margin expanded by 12 basis points to 2.75%, with net interest income increasing by 5% during the quarter [6][11] - Core deposits grew by 9% in the fourth quarter and 8% for the full year, while loans grew at an 11% pace [7] - Tangible book value per share grew 16.5% annualized and was up 15.3% year-over-year [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company saw strong revenue growth from both spread and fee perspectives, with non-interest income bouncing back due to increases in swap fees and letter of credit fees [16] - Core deposit growth was driven by strong non-interest-bearing deposit growth, which increased by $100 million during the fourth quarter [18] - Loan balances were up 8.9% annualized in the fourth quarter and 11.4% for the year, with construction being the largest driver of growth [20][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is now the second-largest locally led bank in the Twin Cities, positioning itself well to capture market share amid M&A disruptions [9] - The multifamily portfolio continues to perform well, with only $62,000 in net charge-offs recorded since the bank's founding [23] - Non-performing assets increased modestly to 0.41% of assets, driven by isolated issues [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to optimize profitable growth while aligning loan growth with core deposit growth and expanding net interest margin [30] - There is a focus on gaining market share in the Twin Cities and expanding the affordable housing vertical both locally and nationally [31] - The company plans to leverage technology investments to support growth and organizational efficiencies, including a strategy around AI [31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the ability to continue driving net interest income growth and achieving a 3% net interest margin by the end of 2026 [12][29] - The company is monitoring the impact of recent events in the Twin Cities on team members and clients, emphasizing support for the community [9] - Management remains confident in the strength of the asset quality profile despite a modest uptick in non-performing assets and net charge-offs [7][24] Other Important Information - The company closed one of the two branches added through the First Minnetonka City Bank acquisition due to proximity to other branches, with minimal deposit attrition post-merger [8] - The company has a strong capital position, with a CET1 ratio increasing slightly from 9.08% to 9.17% [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you unpack some of the deposit growth in the quarter? - Management noted that Q4 tends to be a seasonally high watermark for deposit growth, with a strong deposit pipeline overall [36][39] Question: Can you discuss the cadence of loan repricing? - Management indicated that loan repricing is well laid out and not concentrated in any one quarter, supporting the margin target [40][41] Question: What are the expectations for expenses in 2026? - Management expects expenses to grow in the high single digits, aligning with asset growth [42] Question: What is the company's appetite for potential acquisitions? - Management continues to engage in conversations with local bank owners and remains optimistic about future acquisition opportunities [55] Question: How does the company view the affordable housing vertical's growth potential? - Management expressed confidence in the affordable housing space, indicating it currently represents about 15% of the loan book and is expected to grow [59][60]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][6] Core Views - The major U.S. banks maintain good performance growth supported by credit expansion and resilient net interest margins, but deteriorating asset quality and rising provisioning pressures pose significant future concerns [3][50] - The overall performance of the four major U.S. banks shows good growth, with JPMorgan Chase experiencing a slight decline in net profit primarily due to a provision of $2.2 billion related to the acquisition of Goldman Sachs' Apple credit card business [2][4][48] Summary by Relevant Sections Performance Overview - In 2025, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo reported net profits of $57 billion, $30.5 billion, $14.3 billion, and $21.3 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -2.4%, +13.1%, +12.8%, and +8.2% [2] - JPMorgan Chase's revenue reached $182.4 billion, a 2.6% increase year-on-year, while its net profit declined by 2.4% [4] - Bank of America achieved revenue of $113.1 billion, a 6.8% increase, and net profit of $30.5 billion, a 13.1% increase [4] - Citigroup's revenue was $85.2 billion, a 5.6% increase, with net profit of $14.3 billion, a 12.8% increase [5] - Wells Fargo reported revenue of $83.7 billion, a 1.7% increase, and net profit of $21.3 billion, an 8.2% increase [5] Credit Expansion and Asset Quality - The total loan amounts for the four major banks in 2025 were $1.49 trillion, $1.19 trillion, $0.81 trillion, and $0.99 trillion, reflecting growth rates of 10.8%, 7.7%, 9.3%, and 7.3% respectively [14] - Asset quality pressures are evident, with non-performing loan rates, net charge-off rates, and non-performing loan generation rates rising to levels comparable to those during the pandemic [22][30] Net Interest Margin and Income - Despite the Federal Reserve's cumulative rate cuts of 175 basis points in 2024-2025, the net interest margin for 2025 showed signs of stabilization or slight recovery, attributed to a greater decline in funding costs compared to asset yields [3][36] - Bank of America and Citigroup reported net interest margins of 2.08% and 2.49%, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 11 basis points and 7 basis points [36] - Fee income grew significantly due to recovering consumer confidence and a favorable capital market environment, while other non-interest income remained subdued [45]

事项： 摩根大通、美国银行、花旗集团和富国银行披露 2025 年四季度业绩快报，2025 全年分别实现净利润 570/305/143/213 亿美元，同比分别下降 2.4%、增长 13.1%、增长 12.8%和增长 8.2%。 核心观点：美国大行在信贷扩张与息差韧性支撑下维持较好业绩增长，但资产质量恶化和拨备压力上升构 成未来主要隐忧。美国四大行业绩整体呈现较好增长，摩根大通净利润小幅下降主要是四季度因将接受高 盛的苹果信用卡业务而计提了 22 亿美元拨备。驱动因素具体来看，（1）规模上，信贷扩张明显提速，商 业贷款和信用卡贷款成为主要驱动力，反映科技投资热潮与降息环境下居民消费需求的回暖。（2）然而， 资产质量压力凸显不容忽视。2023~2025 年四大行不良率、净核销率及不良生成率指标持续攀升，基本上 已经和疫情时期水平相当，信用卡净核销率甚至处在多年来的最高水平，显示风险正在积聚。但公司拨备 覆盖率处在近几年相对较低的水平，表明美国大行或没有为未来不良暴露做好充分的准备。（3）净息差 彰显了较强韧性。尽管美联储在 2024~2025 年累计降息 175 个基点，但 2025 年净息差呈现企稳甚至小幅 回 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, Five Star Bancorp achieved a year-over-year growth in total loans held for investments of 15%, total deposit growth of 18%, net income growth of 35%, and an increase in earnings per share of 28% to $2.90 per share [5][6] - Financial highlights for the fourth quarter include $17.6 million in net income, earnings per share of $0.83, return on average assets of 1.50%, and return on average equity of 15.97% [5][6] - The net interest margin expanded 10 basis points to 3.66%, and the total cost of deposits declined by 21 basis points to 2.23% [5][6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Loans held for investment grew by $187.7 million, or 19% on an annualized basis, in the fourth quarter, while total deposits increased by $97.6 million, or 10% on an annualized basis [6] - The commercial real estate portfolio saw significant growth, increasing by $161.4 million in the fourth quarter and $448.5 million for the year [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Non-wholesale deposits increased by $139.1 million during the fourth quarter and $738.1 million during the year, while wholesale deposits decreased by $41.4 million during the quarter and $95 million during the year [8][9] - Total non-interest-bearing deposits accounted for 26% of total deposits, with approximately 61% of deposit relationships totaling more than $5 million [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to further develop all business verticals while expanding into new markets, emphasizing a blend of technology and personalized service [16] - Five Star Bancorp aims to maintain a focus on innovation and service excellence, with a commitment to building deep, meaningful relationships with clients [15][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the growth pipeline for 2026, indicating that while growth may not match the previous year, a target of 10% growth on both sides of the balance sheet is achievable [24][25] - The competitive landscape for deposits is described as very competitive, with a focus on core deposit growth as a competitive advantage [23][24] Other Important Information - The company successfully reduced its balance of wholesale deposits by $95 million, or 17%, in 2025, while growing non-wholesale deposits by 25% [6][7] - A cash dividend of $0.25 per share was announced, marking the first increase since April 2023 [7] Q&A Session Summary Question: Drivers behind the acceleration in loan originations - Management noted strong performance across all verticals, particularly in food and agriculture, with seasonal factors contributing to growth [21] Question: Competitive landscape for deposits - Management acknowledged a highly competitive environment for core deposits but emphasized their business development team's effectiveness in attracting core relationships [22][23] Question: Expense growth outlook - Management indicated that expenses are expected to grow at a rate of 1.48%-1.55% of total assets in 2026, accommodating growth and regular maintenance [35][36] Question: Capital comfortability and outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining capital positions with a 10% growth rate, but noted that higher growth rates would necessitate a capital event in the future [44][45]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 38.89 CNY, while the current price is 28.98 CNY [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve improvements in both fundamentals and performance across four dimensions in 2026: high credit growth, leveraging comprehensive operational advantages to increase demand deposits, enhancing middle-income growth through wealth management and international settlement, and optimizing asset allocation to reduce credit cost pressure [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 61,585 million CNY in 2023 to 89,866 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.3% [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 25,535 million CNY in 2023 to 36,718 million CNY in 2027, with a CAGR of 12.4% [4]. - The net asset value per share is forecasted to rise from 26.71 CNY in 2023 to 43.22 CNY in 2027 [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to stabilize around 13.1% by 2027, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decrease from 1.07 in 2023 to 0.66 in 2027 [4]. Performance Outlook - The company anticipates maintaining a high loan growth rate, stable interest margins, and a decline in non-performing loan generation in 2026, with net profit growth rates forecasted at 8.6%, 10.9%, and 12.4% for 2025-2027 [12]. - The total assets and total loans growth rates for Q4 2025 are expected to be 16.1% and 17.4%, respectively, indicating a leading position among listed banks [12]. - The company has seen a significant increase in demand deposits, with the proportion of demand deposits rising by 3.7 percentage points to 34.4% compared to the beginning of the year [12]. Asset Quality - As of Q4 2025, the non-performing loan ratio is stable at 0.76%, with a provision coverage ratio of 373.2%, indicating effective management of asset quality [12].

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Core Viewpoint - The first batch of eight listed banks in China has reported their 2025 performance, showing overall positive growth in net profit and revenue, with a focus on optimizing business structures and enhancing risk management for 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - All eight listed banks reported a year-on-year increase in net profit, with seven achieving both revenue and net profit growth [2] - Hangzhou Bank led with a 12.05% increase in net profit, while Ningbo Bank and Nanjing Bank reported growths of 8.13% and 8.08% respectively [2] - Among joint-stock banks, Pudong Development Bank saw a notable 10.52% increase in net profit, while CITIC Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Industrial Bank reported growths of 2.98%, 1.21%, and 0.34% respectively [2] - Seven banks achieved revenue growth, with only CITIC Bank experiencing a slight decline of 0.55% [2] - Ningbo Bank's revenue grew by 8.01% to 71.968 billion yuan, driven by a 30.72% increase in net income from fees and commissions [2] Group 2: Asset Expansion - Total assets of several banks have expanded significantly, with China Merchants Bank surpassing 13 trillion yuan and Industrial Bank reaching 11 trillion yuan [3] - Smaller banks like Nanjing Bank, Ningbo Bank, and Hangzhou Bank saw asset growth rates of 16.63%, 16.11%, and 11.96% respectively, focusing on technology finance, green finance, and inclusive finance [3] Group 3: Asset Quality - The asset quality indicators remain stable, with a decrease in non-performing loan (NPL) ratios for four banks and three remaining stable [4] - Pudong Development Bank reported a significant decrease in NPL ratio by 10 basis points to 1.26%, while CITIC Bank and China Merchants Bank saw declines of 1 basis point to 1.15% and 0.94% respectively [4] - The overall provision coverage ratio has slightly decreased but remains at a high level, with several banks maintaining coverage ratios above 300% [4] Group 4: Future Strategies - Many banks have outlined their 2026 operational focuses, emphasizing business structure optimization, expanding fee income sources, and strengthening risk management [5][6] - Bank of Beijing has set ten key initiatives for 2026, aiming for qualitative and quantitative growth through deepening specific banking services and ensuring compliance [6]

2026 年 1 月 25 日 公司研究 贷款增速稳中有进，五年规划圆满收官 010-57378035 执业证书编号：S0930521090001 dongwx@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 72.49 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 1,107.65 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 13.04/17.14 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 64.99% | 股价相对走势 资料来源：Wind ——杭州银行（600926.SH）2025 年业绩快报点评 买入（维持） 当前价：15.28 元 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：董文欣 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | -1.74 | -4.83 | -14.23 | | 绝对 | -0.26 | -3.93 | 9.40 | | 资料来源：Wind | | | | 要点 事件： 1 月 23 日，杭州 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Merchants Bank (CMB) is expected to see a positive revenue growth rate and a slight acceleration in profit for 2025, slightly exceeding expectations [1] Financial Performance - In 2025, CMB achieved an operating income of 337.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.01% (compared to -0.51% in the first nine months of 2025) [2][3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 150.18 billion yuan, up 1.21% year-on-year (compared to 0.52% in the first nine months of 2025) [2][3] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for Q4 2025 remained stable at 0.94%, while the provision coverage ratio decreased by 14.14 percentage points to 391.79% [2][8] Growth Outlook - For 2026, CMB's performance is expected to maintain a steady upward trend, with revenue growth continuing to improve and profit growth remaining in the low single digits [4][9] - The bank's asset scale grew by 7.6% year-on-year to 13.1 trillion yuan, with loan scale increasing by 5.4% to 7.26 trillion yuan [5] Interest Margin and Cost Management - The asset-side interest rates are expected to remain under pressure, but the decline will be less severe than in previous quarters due to ongoing optimization of the liability structure [6] - The bank's deposit scale grew by 8.0% year-on-year to 11.8 trillion yuan, supporting stable funding costs [5][6] Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income is expected to improve marginally, with wealth management continuing to show positive trends and other non-interest income not significantly dragging down overall revenue [7][9] Asset Quality - The NPL ratio remains stable, but the provision coverage ratio has declined, primarily due to the gradual disposal of retail loans and corporate real estate loans [8] - The bank is expected to adopt a cautious approach to risk management, actively addressing potential non-performing loans in the real estate sector [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the banking sector [4]. Core Insights - As of January 23, 2026, eight banks have reported stable growth in performance and maintained asset quality. The outlook for 2026 suggests continued improvement in bank performance, supported by narrowing interest margin declines and decreasing credit costs [2][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Indicators - Eight banks reported their performance for 2025, showing stable growth and asset quality. The revenue growth rates for major banks were as follows: - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank: +1.9% - Industrial Bank: +0.2% - China Merchants Bank: +0.01% - CITIC Bank: -0.6% - Regional banks showed varied performance, with Nanjing Bank at +10.5%, Ningbo Bank at +8.0%, Hangzhou Bank at +1.1%, and Suzhou Rural Bank at +0.4% [4][6]. 2. Scale and Growth - Quality regional banks continued to experience strong credit growth. By the end of 2025, asset growth rates were: - Nanjing Bank: 16.6% - Ningbo Bank: 16.1% - Hangzhou Bank: 12.0% - Loan growth rates were: - Nanjing Bank: 13.4% - Ningbo Bank: 17.4% - Hangzhou Bank: 14.3% - Overall deposit growth remained stable, with city commercial banks maintaining a growth rate of over 10% and joint-stock banks at 7%-8% [4][6]. 3. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratios showed a stable or declining trend across the eight banks, with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank at 1.26%, Suzhou Rural Bank at 0.88%, and CITIC Bank at 1.15%. The provision coverage ratios remained robust, with Hangzhou Bank and China Merchants Bank showing a decline of over 10 percentage points but still at high absolute levels [4][6]. 4. Outlook for 2026 - The report anticipates continued improvement in bank performance in 2026, driven by: - A narrowing decline in interest margins leading to improved net interest income growth. - Increased fee income from insurance and wealth management channels. - Continued resolution of risks in key corporate sectors and stabilization of retail risk exposure [4][6]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines for 2026: 1. Identifying banks with potential for performance growth, recommending Ningbo Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Nanjing Bank. 2. Considering banks with convertible bond expectations, recommending Chongqing Bank and Changshu Bank. 3. Continuing dividend strategies, recommending Bank of Communications, Jiangsu Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [4][6].