Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the financial market, focusing on the impact of U.S. tariff policies, domestic fiscal policies, and market performance indicators, highlighting both opportunities and uncertainties in investment strategies. Group 1: Tariff Events and Market Impact - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff actions under the IEEPA were illegal, leading to an appeal and a temporary stay on tariffs during the appeal process, creating uncertainty in trade policies [4][8] - Despite the ongoing tariff situation, the threat to China's capital market has decreased due to the vulnerabilities exhibited by the U.S. financial market amid rising domestic contradictions [4][8] Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Government Financing - The government is focusing on net financing to drive spending growth, with a target of 13.86 trillion yuan for net financing, of which 6.3 trillion yuan has been achieved by the end of May, leaving 7.5 trillion yuan to be issued [5][10] - It is anticipated that government net financing will remain high, with June potentially reaching a historical peak of 1.8 trillion yuan [10][11] Group 3: Market Performance Indicators - The equity risk premium for the CSI 300 index was recorded at 6.81 at the end of May, remaining above the historical mean by one standard deviation, indicating ongoing market volatility [5][13] - In May 2025, the number of stocks with over 20% gains increased by 156% year-on-year, suggesting a recovery in market profitability, although the potential for further expansion in a volatile market is limited [6][15] Group 4: Market Index Predictions - The Shanghai Composite Index showed a rebound followed by a correction, maintaining support at the 60-day moving average, with pressure expected near the year's high [17] - The CSI 300 index experienced an initial rise but faced adjustments, with technical pressure anticipated due to the loss of support at the half-year line [19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the development of a sentiment timing model based on the analysis of limit-up stocks, "board strategies," and the profit effect, which successfully predicts short-term market sentiment changes [1]. Group 1: Sentiment Timing Model Construction - The annualized return of the sentiment timing model portfolio is 6.65% with a volatility of 15.37% and a maximum drawdown of 29.39% [2]. - The model also performs well when applied to broad indices such as the CSI 300 [2]. Group 2: Improvements to the Model - Improvement 1: By incorporating market trend judgments, the annualized return of the sentiment timing model portfolio increases to 9.41%, with a volatility of 17.98% and a maximum drawdown of 46.35% [3]. - Improvement 2: After applying factor weighting to different sentiment indicators, the annualized return reaches 9.68%, with a reduced volatility of 13.31% and a maximum drawdown of 24.47% [4].

隔夜美股再度扬眉吐气，继续高歌猛进，几乎把之前因关税问题升级带来的跌幅全部"收复失地"。其 中，道琼斯指数和标普500指数更是豪取九连阳，这不是一般的"小涨"，而是自2004年以来最长的连续 上涨纪录，市场情绪热烈可见一斑。 如今，A股大盘仍在3300点下方"磨底"，从估值角度看，确实具备一定吸引力。横向对比全球主要市 场，A股的市盈率、市净率等指标都显得"物美价廉"，这种估值优势已经维持了相当一段时间。但问题 来了——股民朋友们真的买账吗？ 有意思的是，美股这波连涨其实是在A股先涨的基础上接棒发力的。随着全球主要股市——无论是欧洲 还是其他地区——纷纷走出低谷、重回上升通道，市场信心明显回暖。那么问题来了：A股在经历了节 前的震荡调整后，节后开盘若不能顺势补涨，岂不是白白浪费了这波全球牛市的东风？毕竟，前期的努 力如果最后没能转化为成果，那就真的成了"为他人作嫁衣"了。可以说，接下来A股的表现，非常值得 各方期待。 说白了，市场要走得远，不能只靠价值支撑，还得有点"烟火气"——也就是看得见的赚钱效应和烧钱潜 力。没有赚钱的预期，谁还愿意掏腰包？市场一旦没了人气，流动性就像干涸的河床，再好的资产也可 能沦为" ...

Market Overview - The overall market trading volume has slightly increased, with the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges at the 54.9% percentile level over the past year, indicating a "tight balance" in market liquidity [1][10] - The concentration of trading volume at the industry level has shown an upward trend, while the concentration at the individual stock level has continued to decline [21][24] Profitability and Market Sentiment - The profitability effect has risen, with the difference between the top 10% of stocks' price changes and the median price change increasing by 1.01 percentage points to 6.78% [34] - The median price change for the entire A-share market has increased by 0.83 percentage points to 1.28% [34] Industry Turnover Rates - The highest turnover rates among primary industries last week were in Beauty Care (21.99%), Retail (18.64%), and Social Services (18.07%), while the lowest were in Banking (1.14%), Oil and Petrochemicals (1.69%), and Steel (3.72%) [44] Institutional Research Activity - The highest institutional research intensity was observed in the Electronics (31.05%), Pharmaceuticals (24.90%), and Power Equipment (19.55%) sectors [54] - The research intensity for the CSI 100 index was the highest at 9.07, with a significant increase of 8.94 from the previous week [57] Fund Flow Analysis - The stock market experienced a net outflow of 75.97 billion yuan, which is an increase in outflow by 148.33 billion yuan compared to the previous value [2][58] - The breakdown of fund flows includes a decrease in financing balance by 12.47 billion yuan and an increase in ETF inflows by 109.38 billion yuan [2][58] Market Liquidity and Financing - The financing balance decreased by 12.47 billion yuan, contrasting with an increase of 43.23 billion yuan in the previous week [62] - The top three industries with increased financing balances were Pharmaceuticals (15.94 billion yuan), Electronics (8.96 billion yuan), and Basic Chemicals (5.84 billion yuan) [63] Stock Performance and Concentration - The top 5 industries accounted for 42.30% of the trading volume, reflecting an increase of 0.85 percentage points [24] - The top 10% of stocks accounted for 47.07% of the total trading volume, which is a decrease of 0.87 percentage points from the previous value [26]

今天是耶稣受难日，欧美股市全部放假，港股也休市，所以北上资金没法进来，市场的交易量，也跌破1万亿，到了9400亿左右，是0924行情以 来，单日成交量最低的一天。 昨天提到，可能就是未来1-2天，会放弃对上证指数的执着，上证至多停步在九连阳或者十连阳， 今天一语成谶了 ，上证指数果然最后时刻收 跌。 不过，收跌的场面，有点戏剧化——今天尾盘出现的时间，比昨天还早了几分钟，14点46分左右，沪深300率先翻红，过了5分钟后，上证指数同 步翻红，不过， 最后1分钟，上证指数一根直线下插下去，转跌 。 那么，问题就变成， 这是故意的，还是不小心的 ——是故意留个破绽，主动结束连胜，还是不小心被算计到了？ 这也是 至今为止，曹老师心里，最大的疑惑。 昨天，宽基ETF，一共净买入40亿出头，我们提到过，压缩尾盘的交易时间段，就是为了节省子弹，而净买入10亿以上的，也确实只有一只上证 50，和两只沪深300的ETF，明显是收着打的。 没想到， 一个锅盖盖两口锅，昨天漏了沪深300，今天漏了上证指数。 下图，看上证50ETF分时图的话，明显是多空博弈，最后10分钟，夹杂着大量的卖单，候着卖出，导致最后砸了下来。 不过，这样 ...

Market Overview - The overall market trading volume continued to decline, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges' trading volume at the 64.7 percentile level over the past year, down from 72.5% [1][11] - The trading concentration has decreased, with both industry-level and individual stock-level trading concentration showing a downward trend [1][24] Industry Performance - The top three industries by trading volume were Electronics (717.996 billion), Machinery (670.360 billion), and Computers (539.873 billion), while the lowest were Comprehensive (14.600 billion), Beauty Care (15.921 billion), and Building Materials (36.315 billion) [22] - The industry-level trading concentration for the top five industries accounted for 46.49%, a decrease of 3.9 percentage points from the previous value [26] Stock Performance - The top 10% of stocks accounted for 45.99% of total trading volume, down 2.55 percentage points from the previous value [28] - The top 20% of stocks accounted for 62.83% of total trading volume, down 2.18 percentage points from the previous value [28] Profitability Analysis - The difference between the top 10% of stocks' price changes and the median price change was 5.79%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points from the previous value [38] - The median price change for the entire A-share market was -2.56%, down 0.89 percentage points from the previous value [38] Turnover Rate - The highest turnover rates among industries were in Social Services (20.66%), Machinery (19.08%), and Computers (16.32%), while the lowest were in Banking (1.05%), Oil and Petrochemicals (2.55%), and Transportation (3.66%) [46] Institutional Research - The highest institutional research intensity was observed in the Electronics (13.62%), Basic Chemicals (9.60%), and Home Appliances (7.80%) sectors [57] - The research intensity for the CSI 300 index was the highest at 2.83, with a significant increase of 2.21 from the previous week [60]