本周三大指数，上证指数涨0.13%，深证成指跌0.58%，创业板指跌1.25%。后市将如何发展？看看机构 怎么说。 中信证券：开年后市场震荡向上的概率更高 我们认为2026年最大的预期差来自于外需与内需的平衡，对外"征税"、补贴内需应是大势所趋，今年是 个重要的开端。站在开年，考虑到去年末的资金热度并不算高，人心思涨的环境下开年后市场震荡向上 的概率更高。 广发策略：26年定价逻辑前瞻，"弹簧"未到极限时 展望2026年：预计美联储在2026年降息两次；欧洲央行可能按兵不动，因德国财政刺激带来的增长；日 本央行因其通胀担忧、且日元贬值压力加大，或成为唯一加息的主要央行；新兴市场多数也在宽松周期 中，但可能仅小幅宽松，反映其外需有支撑但内需偏弱。 申万宏源：上证综指连续阳线后，春季行情仍有纵深 春季支撑风险偏好的时间窗口连续：2 月春节前反弹是A 股胜率最高的日历特征之一，同时这也是科技 领域可能兑现重磅催化的窗口。3 月两会可能审议十五五规划正式稿，政策催化可能更加丰富。4 月特 朗普可能访华，中美经贸关系缓和确认期，也是稳定资本市场预期的关键窗口。上证综指连续阳线后， 春季行情仍有纵深。 西部证券：策马乘风 ...

铁矿石周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所 张广硕（分析师） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2026年01月04日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铁矿观点：宏观预期支撑，矿价高位震荡 | | 最近一周切片数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 条 目 当周值 | | 环 | 比 | | 同 比 | | | 供 应 | 全球发货量 3677 . | 1 | 212 | . | 6 | 197 . | 7 | | | 澳发货量 2039 . | 7 | 150 | . | 5 | -150 | 0 . | | | 巴发货量 944 . | 0 | 84 | 6 . | | 195 . | 5 | | | 力拓-中国发货量 696 . | 3 | 95 | 3 . | | 56 . | 9 | | | BHP-中国发货量 513 . | 4 | -9 | 5 . | | -87 . | 9 | | | FMG-中 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market closed 2025 with a 0.09% increase on the last trading day, marking an 18.41% annual rise, the highest in a decade [5] - Over the past six months, the average net value growth rate of equity public wealth management products was 17.65%, with 14 out of 37 products exceeding 20% growth [5] - The top 10 wealth management products had an average net value growth rate of 33.59%, with industry-themed products leading the gains [6] Group 1: Product Performance - The top-performing product was "阳光红新能源主题A" from 光大理财, with a net value growth rate of 64.01% [3] - "华夏理财长开理财产品4号(新型储能指数)" achieved a growth rate of 43.12% [3] - The products from 华夏理财 dominated the list, with three products making it to the top ten [5] Group 2: Market Trends - The A-share market showed a strong upward trend over the last six months, with the创业板指 leading with over 52% growth [5] - Analysts predict a "cross-year" and "spring" market rally, with expectations of increased investment activity and liquidity in early 2026 [7][8] - Historical patterns suggest that the "spring rally" typically begins in late November or early December and lasts until around February [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Shanghai 180 Index has shown a positive trend, with a notable increase in the manufacturing PMI, indicating a return to expansion after eight months [1] - The Shanghai 180 Index rose by 0.44%, with significant gains from constituent stocks such as Jiangxi Copper (up 9.91%) and Zijin Mining (up 5.09%) [1] - The recent market rally is attributed to a marginal easing of liquidity tightening expectations, which has led to a global risk asset recovery [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai 180 ETF closely tracks the Shanghai 180 Index, which consists of 180 large-cap and liquid stocks from the Shanghai market [2] - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Shanghai 180 Index account for 26.13% of the index, including major companies like Kweichow Moutai and Ping An Insurance [2] - The Shanghai 180 ETF has various connection funds available for investors, enhancing accessibility to the index [2]

Group 1: Strategy Overview - The report indicates that the market is gradually shifting focus from a single narrative around AI to a broader range of sectors, suggesting that a new investment theme for 2026 is emerging as the market stabilizes and industry rotation accelerates [5][12][15] - The report highlights that the recent rally in the market is driven by a recovery in global risk assets, with expectations of a cross-year market trend starting to take shape [5][12] Group 2: Metal Industry Insights - The report notes that the sharp rise in non-ferrous metals is likely driven by increased demand from high-margin and growth-oriented sectors, which are more tolerant of price increases [5][13] - It emphasizes that the relationship between metal prices and AI investments is similar to the past dynamics between coal/power and new energy sectors, indicating a potential for significant price movements in metals due to AI-related consumption [5][13] Group 3: Currency and Trade Dynamics - The report discusses a new cycle of RMB appreciation, driven by changes in export structure and settlement methods, suggesting that the impact of RMB appreciation on export competitiveness may be less severe than previously thought [6][14] - It highlights that the current high-value export sectors in China possess significant market share and production capacity, which enhances their resilience against trade protectionism [6][14] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on industrial resource products that resonate with AI investments and global manufacturing recovery, including copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil, and oil transportation [7][15] - It also suggests investing in Chinese equipment export chains that have confirmed cyclical bottoms, such as power grid equipment, energy storage, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and engineering machinery [7][15] Group 5: Company-Specific Insights - For Yun Aluminum Co. (000807.SZ), the report recommends a long-term investment due to favorable conditions for aluminum exports and potential price increases driven by supply-side reforms and low inventory levels [17] - For Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH), the report highlights the company's growth potential due to rising global market share and collaboration with leading companies in robotics [18] - For China Southern Airlines (1055.HK), the report notes the expected improvement in industry supply-demand dynamics and the company's large fleet size as key growth drivers [21] - For Li Ning (2331.HK), the report points to management improvements and the upcoming Olympic cycle as catalysts for growth [24] - For Blue Special Optics (688127.SH) and Shengyi Technology (600183.SH), the report emphasizes strong demand in downstream sectors and the potential for price increases due to supply constraints [26][27] - For Te Bao Biological (688278.SH), the report highlights the expected commercial success of its growth hormone product and the potential for new indications to drive revenue growth [28]

Market Overview - The A-share market in December 2025 ended with a structural differentiation, characterized by a growth style leading the market, with the Wind All A Index rising by 3.34% [1] - The ChiNext Index surged by 5.57%, indicating a strong preference for small and medium-sized growth stocks, while the Shanghai Composite Index only saw a modest increase of 1.97% [1] - The cyclical style index rose by 5.21%, and the growth style index increased by 4.97%, significantly outperforming the consumer style index, which fell by 1.44% [1] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector was notably strong, driven by intensive industrial policies, with the aerospace and defense sector rising by 15.87% and the communication equipment sector increasing by 16.51% [2] - The insurance sector also performed well, rising by 16.98% due to year-end institutional allocation demand and expectations of long-term investment policies [2] - Conversely, sectors such as interactive media and services, as well as the media sector, experienced declines due to previous overheating or lack of catalysts [2] Driving Factors - The primary driver of the market's performance was the influx of incremental capital, with net subscriptions to broad-based ETFs exceeding 110 billion yuan, particularly in the A500 ETF [4] - Strong domestic industrial policies, such as the National Space Administration's action plan for commercial aerospace, played a crucial role in stimulating related sectors [4] - Global liquidity expectations shifted with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December, alongside the appreciation of the yuan, creating a favorable external environment [4] Market Expectations - Looking ahead to January 2026, the cross-year market trend is expected to continue, but with a focus on structure and rhythm [6] - Major broad-based indices may experience a "volatile consolidation and structural differentiation" pattern, with support from institutional fund layouts for the spring rally [6] - Opportunities in sectors are anticipated to revolve around dual drivers of policy and industry, with ongoing stories in the non-ferrous metals sector and a focus on commercial aerospace themes due to policy developments [6] Investment Strategy - A flexible and structured approach is recommended for upcoming market conditions, with a "core + satellite" investment strategy suggested [7] - Core positions should focus on high-growth sectors with clear industry trends, such as energy storage and precious metals, while flexible positions can target policy-sensitive themes like commercial aerospace [7] - Overall positions should be controlled to avoid chasing high prices, especially in light of potential market volatility from upcoming economic data releases and policy announcements [7]

截至收盘，中证A500指数上涨0.3%，中证A100指数上涨0.4%，中证A50指数上涨0.2%，A500ETF易方达（159361）全天成交额约70亿元，获超1.5亿份净申 购。Wind数据显示，截至12月29日，A500ETF易方达（159361）最新规模达337亿元，今年以来年化跟踪误差仅0.34%，相对指数超额收益为2.85%、在规模 百亿以上的同类产品中位居第一。 兴业证券研报称，美联储议息会议、国内重要会议相继落地，明年国内外政策基调进一步明确，其释放的"海外偏宽松，国内偏积极、偏呵护"的政策组合， 奠定了有利于风险资产演绎的良好环境，跨年行情有望在寻找共识的过程中逐步展开。 每日经济新闻 ...

Market Overview - The market is showing signs of accumulating upward momentum, with a notable rebound in stock indices, particularly the Shanghai Composite Index, which is attracting mainstream capital attention [2][5] - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 2.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 30 billion yuan compared to the previous day [5] Sector Performance - The top three sectors with net capital inflow are Mechanical Equipment, Automotive, and Media, with Mechanical Equipment seeing an inflow of 26.35 billion yuan [5] - After several months of adjustment, leading stocks in various sectors are beginning to rebound, indicating a clear buying signal from investors [2][5] Investment Products - Huabao Fund has launched three major broad-based ETFs tracking the China A-share market, providing investors with diverse options for exposure [2][5] - A50 ETF Huabao (159596) focuses on the top 50 core leaders in the market [2] - China A100 ETF Fund (562000) encompasses the top 100 industry leaders [2] - A500 ETF Huabao (563500) targets the top 500 companies in the A-share market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the stock market on December 30, highlighting a mixed trading day with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices showed gains. The article emphasizes the surge in humanoid robot concept stocks and the active performance of sectors like digital currency, AI smartphones, and short drama games, while noting a pullback in the photovoltaic industry chain [3][4]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3965.12, down 0.16% [4] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.49% to 13604.07 [4] - The ChiNext Index increased by 0.63% to 3242.90 [4] Sector Highlights - Humanoid robot concept stocks experienced a collective surge, with over ten stocks hitting the daily limit up, including: - Buke Co., Ltd. (+20.00% to 145.99) - Haichang New Materials (+19.98% to 30.98) - Wu Zhi Electromechanical (+18.59% to 63.80) [5][6] - The liquid cooling server concept also saw gains, with stocks like Unified Co. and New Times hitting the daily limit up [5][7]. Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in sectors such as general equipment, automotive, and home appliances, while there were outflows from telecommunications, batteries, and photovoltaic equipment [9]. - Notable net inflows included: - Sanhua Intelligent Controls: 2.786 billion - N Qiang Yi: 1.824 billion - Shanzi Gaoke: 1.538 billion [9]. - Significant net outflows were recorded for: - Goldwind Technology: 2.871 billion - Aerospace Development: 2.377 billion - China Satellite: 2.006 billion [9]. Institutional Perspectives - Guotai Junan expressed that the upcoming cross-year market trend presents a good opportunity for positioning during adjustments [10]. - Qianhai Bourbon Fund noted that the market is expected to reverse as anticipated, with indices likely to reach new highs [11]. - Pacific Securities predicted that the cross-year market will start with a broad rally, with the volatility of major stock index options remaining low, suggesting a steeper upward trend ahead [12].

今日市场低开高走，沪指平收，日k线收出十连阳。市场全天成交2.1万亿，较上个交易日基本持平，两 市下跌个股超3400只。 2、工信部：加快推进国家新型互联网交换中心创新发展 盘面上看，机器人概念股集体爆发，步科股份、三花智控等近20股涨停。液冷服务器概念走高，统一股 份涨停，鼎通科技等涨超10%。AI智能体概念表现活跃，酷特智能、南兴股份等涨停。下跌方面，海南 自贸区概念下挫，钧达股份跌超7%；商业航天概念调整，8连板龙头神剑股份跌停。 光大证券指出，场内资金分歧明显，但考虑到4000点已经近在眼前，多头或将推动沪指继续向4000点震 荡上行，同时，热点轮动的风格大概率将延续。 从个股看，两市上涨1840家，下跌3481家，148家涨幅持平。两市共64股涨停，共20股跌停。 截至收盘，沪指平收报3965.12点，成交8875亿元；深成指涨0.49%报13604.07点，成交12548亿元。创 业板指上涨0.63%，报3242.90点。 资金动向 今日主力资金重点抢筹汽车零部件、广告营销、通用设备等板块，主力净流入居前的个股包括山子高 科、中国卫通、硕贝德等。 要闻回顾 1、中央农村工作会议：加力实施新一轮千亿 ...