12月19日，市场消化通胀放缓数据，金价震荡回调，截至A股收盘，COMEX黄金期货交投于4353美元/ 盎司附近，黄金ETF华夏(518850)跌0.04%，黄金股ETF(159562)跌0.28%，有色金属ETF基金(516650)涨 1.61%。 消息面上，交易员们现在关注周五美国经济数据，包括成屋销售数据和修订后的密歇根大学消费者信心 指数。这些数据，加上美联储公开市场委员会(FOMC)重要成员的讲话，可能会影响美元，并为黄金带 来短期交易机会。 大有期货指出，回顾本轮行情，金银价格自2023年末美联储释放转向信号以来已累积了巨大涨幅，尤其 是黄金价格站上每盎司4300美元的历史高位。因此，尽管数据本身方向利好，但其对价格的边际提振效 应已显著减弱。市场短期或转入高位盘整、以时间换空间的格局，通过震荡来消化浮盈、重塑共识，并 等待下一个明确的宏观数据或政策信号来指引方向。 ...

Group 1 - The market experienced a slight increase on December 19, with the non-ferrous metals sector leading the gains, including copper, aluminum, and rare earths, with Yun Aluminum rising over 60% [1] - The Industrial Non-Ferrous ETF (560860) saw a trading volume exceeding 3.1 billion, surpassing the total from the previous day, indicating active trading with frequent premiums in the market [1] - The Industrial Non-Ferrous ETF has attracted significant capital, with over 5.8 billion raised in the last 10 days, over 11 billion in the last 20 days, and over 28 billion in the last 60 days, bringing its latest scale to 69.88 billion [1] Group 2 - Internationally, U.S. inflation showed unexpected easing, with the November core CPI rising by 2.6%, the lowest since 2021, providing the Federal Reserve with substantial room to consider interest rate cuts [3] - LME metal futures generally rose, with LME copper increasing by 41 USD to 11,778 USD/ton and LME aluminum rising by 10 USD to 2,916 USD/ton [3] - In the rare earth sector, Chinese authorities have communicated policies to exporters, with some exporters meeting the basic requirements for applying for general licenses, indicating a potential increase in exports [3] Group 3 - According to Guotai Junan Securities, copper is expected to see dual positive catalysts from its financial and commodity attributes, with increased demand and inventory pressures due to insufficient supply [3] - Aluminum is anticipated to break out of its three-year price range due to strong demand and low inventory, entering a phase of significant upward movement driven by demand catalysts [4] - The Industrial Non-Ferrous ETF closely tracks the CSI Industrial Non-Ferrous Metals Theme Index, covering leading strategic resources such as copper, aluminum, and rare earths, providing opportunities for investors to capitalize on cyclical and policy-driven benefits [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that international gold prices have retreated below $4,350, continuing a consolidation trend due to profit-taking and a reduction in long positions, rather than significant selling pressure [1] - The macroeconomic perspective shows that mid-term support factors for gold prices remain solid, with recent U.S. inflation data significantly below market expectations, enhancing the outlook for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly the escalating tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, continue to drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 2 - Technically, gold maintains a strong bullish structure, remaining above key moving averages with higher lows and a well-defined upward trend [3] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the midline, indicating that bullish sentiment remains dominant, while the Bollinger Bands suggest potential for further price expansion [4] - Key short-term resistance is identified at $4,350, with a potential breakthrough leading to a retest of the historical high of $4,381 and a challenge towards the $4,400 level [4] Group 3 - Important short-term support is at $4,300, with a potential decline to $4,270 if this level is breached; stronger support is located around the $4,240 area, which corresponds to the mid-term moving average [5]

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: BR Rubber [1] - **Bearish**: Industrial Silicon, Palm Oil [1] - **Neutral (Oscillation)**: Bonds, Agricultural Products, Alumina, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium), Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Soybeans, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, Ethylene Glycol, Benzene - Naphtha, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the stock index is expected to continue its weak trend, but the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of the stock index next year [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks [1] - The market sentiment is volatile, and there are opportunities to go long at low levels for some products [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Short - term weak operation, long - term upward potential. Investors can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment period [1] - **Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned. Pay attention to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Aluminum**: High - level wide - range oscillation due to limited industrial drive and fluctuating macro sentiment [1] - **Alumina**: Weak domestic fundamentals, short - term price rebound but limited upward drive [1] - **Zinc**: Fundamentals improved, cost center shifted up, but price is under pressure. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1] - **Nickel**: After a sharp decline, there is a demand for position - reduction repair. Short - term trading is recommended, and the long - term supply of primary nickel is in surplus [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term trading is recommended, waiting for opportunities to sell on rallies [1] - **Tin**: Short - term oscillation, long - term bullish. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities during corrections [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Supported by the cooling of the US CPI in November, but short - term volatility risks need to be vigilant [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Bearish due to increased production in the northwest, reduced production in the southwest, and decreased production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December [1] - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, marginal improvement in terminal installation in the fourth quarter, and strong price - holding and low - delivery willingness of large enterprises [1] - **Lithium**: In the traditional peak season of new energy vehicles, with strong energy - storage demand, increased production on the supply side, and the potential to break through previous highs [1] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Roll over and take profits on cash - and - carry positions. Valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - **Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon**: Prices are under pressure due to weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation [1] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Supply and demand provide support, valuation is low, but short - term price fluctuations are strong [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After a decline, there are signs of stabilization. Pay attention to winter - storage replenishment by downstream enterprises this week [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Short - term short - selling is recommended due to continuous negative high - frequency data and high pressure on the origin [1] - **Soybeans**: Pay attention to the negative impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: It is recommended to short the 05 contract as the near - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be exhausted [1] - **Cotton**: The market is currently supported but lacks a driving force. Pay attention to relevant policies and market conditions in the future [1] - **Sugar**: There is a consensus on short - selling, but there is strong cost support below. Pay attention to changes in the capital side [1] - **Wheat and Corn**: The short - term decline is limited by farmers' price - holding sentiment and downstream stocking demand before the Spring Festival [1] - **Pulp**: Unilateral trading is recommended to wait and see, and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread [1] - **Logs**: The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly as it approaches the delivery month [1] - **Live Pigs**: Production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemical Industry - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: Affected by OPEC+ production - suspension, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports [1] - **Bitumen**: Follows crude oil in the short term, with high profit and possible falsification of the 14th - Five - Year Plan's rush - demand [1] - **BR Rubber**: Bullish due to improved cost - side support, increased sales, and high operating rates [1] - **PTA and Short - Fiber**: The PTA device operates at a high load, and short - fiber prices follow costs closely [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices decline due to inventory accumulation and weakening cost support [1] - **Benzene - Naphtha**: There is slight cost - side support, but overall production economy is negative, and inventory is high [1] - **Urea, Propylene, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: Prices oscillate due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, cost changes, and reduced anti - involution sentiment [1] - **LPG**: The market is affected by geopolitical factors, and prices oscillate after a decline. Pay attention to the impact of natural gas on near - month prices [1] Other - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price increase in December was less than expected, and the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily views and evaluations on various futures varieties, including trends, trading suggestions, and price ranges for each variety [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Selected Views - Tin (SN2601): Expected to fluctuate strongly [3] - Plastic (12605): Expected to show a weak trend [3] - Coking Coal (JM2605): Expected to rebound from the bottom [3] - Rapeseed Oil (01605): Expected to fluctuate weakly [3] - PT2606/PD: Suggest buying on dips [3] Full Variety Daily Reviews Stock Index - The dividend sector rose against the market, and the A - share style is defensive. The market lacks upward momentum due to the impact of the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hike expectation, and the downside space is also limited. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously. Short - term market trends may be dominated by year - end performance - chasing trading demands, and it is advisable to view the market as volatile and trade quickly if participating [3] Treasury Bonds - There are both positive factors and profit - taking demands, and the bond futures are expected to fluctuate slightly higher. It is recommended to pay attention to the central bank's MLF injection and end - of - month treasury bond trading. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, and consider the market as range - bound. For the spot - futures strategy, pay attention to the positive arbitrage of the 2603 contract and the opportunity to widen the basis [3] Precious Metals - Gold prices are still inhibited in upward momentum but remain strongly volatile. It is recommended to hold long positions. Silver may enter the overbought range, and it is advisable to wait and see. Platinum and palladium may correct in the short - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips [3] Shipping Index (European Line) - Expected to fluctuate in the short - term [3] Steel - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. The rebar in May should be watched in the range of 3000 - 3200 yuan, and the hot - rolled coil in the range of 3200 - 3350 yuan [3] Iron Ore - Iron ore is expected to rebound with fluctuations. The reference range is 730 - 800 [3] Coking Coal - Coking coal is expected to rebound with fluctuations. The reference range is 1000 - 1200 [3] Coke - Coke is expected to rebound with fluctuations. The reference range is 1500 - 1650 [3] Copper - It is advisable to wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to the support at 90000 - 91000 [3] Alumina - The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 2450 - 2700. Short - term traders can go long on dips [3] Aluminum - The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 21700 - 22400. It is recommended to go long on dips [3] Aluminum Alloy - The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20700 - 21400. It is recommended to go long on AD03 and short on AL03 for arbitrage [3] Zinc - Pay attention to the support at 22850 - 22950, and continue to hold the cross - market reverse arbitrage [3] Tin - Hold existing long positions and buy on dips [3] Nickel - The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 114000 - 118000 [3] Stainless Steel - The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12500 - 13000 [3] Industrial Silicon - The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 8000 - 8800 [3] Polysilicon - It is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is advisable to wait and see [3] Lithium Carbonate - The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 98,000 - 102,000. Reduce long positions [3] PX - Conduct rolling low - buying operations [3] PTA - Conduct rolling low - buying operations and low - level positive arbitrage between TA5 - 9 [3] Short - Fiber - The operation is the same as PTA. Compress the processing fee on the disk when it is high [3] Bottle Chips - Sell PR2602 - P - 5500 on rallies. The processing fee on the main contract is expected to be strong in the short - term, fluctuating in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton [3] Ethanol - Sell EG2605 - C - 4100 on rallies to obtain time value [3] Pure Benzene - It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5300 - 5600 [3] Styrene - It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [3] Energy and Chemicals - LLDPE: Wait and see [3] - PP: Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profit [3] - MA: Narrow the MTO of the 05 contract [3] - Caustic Soda: Be bearish [3] - PVC: Be bearish on the rebound [3] - Soda Ash: Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [3] - Glass: Wait and see [3] - Natural Rubber: Wait and see [3] - Synthetic Rubber: Pay attention to the pressure at around 11200 for BR2602 [3] Grains and Oils -粕类: Narrow - range adjustment [3] - Live Pigs: In a bottom - grinding market [3] - Corn: Expected to fluctuate weakly [3] - Vegetable Oils: The decline has slowed down. The P main contract may test the support at 8200 - 8300 in the short - term [3] - Sugar: Expected to fluctuate weakly [3] - Cotton: Pay attention to the resistance at around 14050 - 14100 [3] - Eggs: Expected to fluctuate weakly [3] - Apples: It is recommended to exit long positions opportunistically [3] - Red Dates: Buy low and sell high [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The reduction in both domestic and international copper inventories provides support for copper prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 92,600, with a daily decline of 0.24%, and the night - session closing price was 92,870, with a night - session increase of 0.29%. The price of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 11,727, with a decline of 0.13%. The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index was 288,527, a decrease of 1,237 from the previous day, and the open interest was 622,036, an increase of 5,683. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 31,364, an increase of 14,534, and the open interest was 345,000, an increase of 611 [1]. - **Inventory Data**: The Shanghai copper inventory was 44,650, a decrease of 227, and the LME copper inventory was 164,275, a decrease of 2,650. The LME copper cancellation warrant ratio was 37.47%, a decrease of 1.14% [1]. - **Spread Data**: The LME copper premium or discount was - 9.8, a decrease of 0.28 from the previous day. The spot - to - futures near - month spread was - 140, an increase of 10. The near - month contract to the consecutive - first contract spread was - 150, a decrease of 50. The cost of the inter - period arbitrage of buying the near - month and selling the consecutive - first contract was 317 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: US inflation slowed more than expected, with the core CPI in November rising 2.6% year - on - year, the lowest since 2021. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time and did not give a clear easing signal [1][3]. - **Industry News**: Korea Zinc plans to invest $7.4 billion in the US to build a smelter. Peru's copper production in October increased by 4.8% year - on - year to 248,192 tons. Glencore acquired the Quechua copper project in Peru. Peru's Congress approved a one - year extension of the temporary licenses for small - scale miners until the end of 2026 [1][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].

随着CPI降至3.2%，英国央行将基准利率下调至3.75%，巴克莱（BCS）等英国银行面临环境变化；英 国央行暗示未来进一步降息将"更加审慎"。 随着CPI降至3.2%，英国央行将基准利率下调至3.75%，巴克莱（BCS）等英国银行面临环境变化；英 国央行暗示未来进一步降息将"更加审慎"。 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 ...

沃勒称，降息并不存在迫切性，美联储可以"稳步地"将政策利率逐步向中性水平靠拢，以应对通胀放缓 但经济仍具韧性的局面。 来源：央视新闻客户端 总台记者当地时间12月17日获悉，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒表示，美国货币政策目前仍处于限制性 区间，美联储在未来具备进一步降息的空间。 ...

来源：滚动播报 美联储保尔森：明年通胀"很有可能"放缓。 ...

格隆汇12月10日｜野村资本管理公司在11月中旬之前的基准情景是，美联储不会在12月进行任何利率调 整。但首席投资官马修·帕莱在一份备忘录中表示，最新的数据指向通胀增速放缓以及劳动力市场疲软 的迹象，这使得再次降息成为可能。他说，新的经济预测应会反映出未来几个季度通胀将有所缓和，这 为再次降息打开了大门。帕莱表示："尽管我们对近期美联储决策的看法发生了变化，但可以明确的 是，当前的委员会在如何处理货币政策路径方面，比他记忆中很长时间以来都更为分裂。" 来源：格隆汇APP ...