格隆汇12月10日｜野村资本管理公司在11月中旬之前的基准情景是，美联储不会在12月进行任何利率调 整。但首席投资官马修·帕莱在一份备忘录中表示，最新的数据指向通胀增速放缓以及劳动力市场疲软 的迹象，这使得再次降息成为可能。他说，新的经济预测应会反映出未来几个季度通胀将有所缓和，这 为再次降息打开了大门。帕莱表示："尽管我们对近期美联储决策的看法发生了变化，但可以明确的 是，当前的委员会在如何处理货币政策路径方面，比他记忆中很长时间以来都更为分裂。" 来源：格隆汇APP ...

第二季度数据显示，阿经济正日趋多元化，但消费增速放缓，反映出家庭消费习惯趋于谨慎。随着 投资增加和通胀得到较好控制，第二季度的各项指标展现了阿经济发展的积极信号。 国内需求和投资成为本季度经济增长新动力。国内需求增长10.2%，高于2024年同期的6.8%。这一 现象主要归因于投资显著增长，投资增长了12.4%。同期，家庭消费略有下降（-3.9%），降幅低于上年 的-4.1%。政府支出增长3.1%，高于去年同期的2.3%。本季度的经济增长更多依靠生产性活动，而非家 庭支出。 在经济增长的同时，通胀也显著放缓。通胀率降至1.1%，去年同期为4.1%。因蔬菜等农产品价格 大幅下跌，食品价格下降1.4%，但部分食品价格持续上涨，如鸡肉价格增长19%，水果价格增长 21.6%。加工食品价格下降0.7%，童装价格下降1.6%，学习用品价格下降7.7%，服务业价格总体保持稳 定。 （原标题：2025年第二季度阿尔及利亚经济增长3.9%） 阿尔及利亚360网站11月21日报道，2025年第二季度，阿经济增长3.9%，略高于上年同期水平。阿 非油气行业增长强劲，非油气行业已成为经济增长的真正引擎，凸显阿尔及利亚经济正在转型， ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices surged past the $4200 mark due to rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and a weakening dollar, before slightly retreating to close at $4189.6 per ounce [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE year-on-year growth is expected to decrease from 2.9% in August to 2.8% in September, based on the CPI and PPI inflation data [1] - Service inflation has stabilized or weakened after a slowdown in August, with significant declines in housing inflation; October rent fell by 0.31% month-on-month, marking the largest monthly drop in 15 years [1] - Prices for various categories in U.S. commodities and personal care products have shown a consistent slowdown or decline over several months, indicating a broader trend of easing inflation [1] Federal Reserve Outlook - According to CME's "FedWatch," there is an 86.9% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in December [1] - Analysts indicate that the risk of weakening employment in the U.S. economy currently outweighs the risk of rising inflation, suggesting the need for continued rate cuts to support employment and consumption among middle and low-income groups [1] - Most Federal Reserve officials supported three rate cuts within the year during the September economic forecast, viewing a December cut as a baseline scenario, despite existing divisions within the Fed [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices reached a peak of $4,152 before retreating, currently trading around $4,140, with related products showing narrowed gains [1] - Strong investment demand is supporting the gold market, testing resistance near $4,150 per ounce, preventing significant declines [1] - Although gold prices have decreased approximately 6% from last month's historical high of around $4,360 per ounce, the pullback is relatively mild and has not triggered panic selling [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy - Goldman Sachs predicts the Federal Reserve will implement a third consecutive rate cut in December, citing easing inflation and a cooling labor market as factors [2] - The firm anticipates further rate cuts in 2026, with the federal funds rate expected to fall to a range of 3.00% to 3.25% [2] - The baseline view is that the Federal Reserve will increasingly believe in the sustainability of the inflation slowdown trend, reducing the need for restrictive monetary policy [2]

Summary of the 2026 Asia Economics Outlook Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the economic outlook for Asia, particularly the recovery from technology to non-technology sectors, highlighting the expansion of recovery across various industries [3][4][13]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Recovery Expansion**: The recovery is broadening, with non-technology exports rebounding, leading to improved capital expenditure momentum and better labor market conditions, which in turn boosts consumption [3][4]. 2. **GDP Growth Projections**: - Asia's real GDP growth is expected to rise from 4.3% in Q4 2025 to 4.7% in Q4 2026 [3][35]. - Nominal GDP growth for Asia (excluding China) is projected to rebound from 5.5% in Q4 2025 to 7.2% in Q4 2026 [3][35]. 3. **Inflation Trends**: - Inflation pressures are expected to ease in 2026, with overall inflation in Asia (excluding Japan) projected to rise slightly but remain within central banks' comfort zones [3][4][49]. - In China, inflation is anticipated to improve moderately, with a complete exit from deflation expected by 2027 [3][4][51]. 4. **Monetary Policy Outlook**: Central banks are nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, with most expected to maintain rates steady in 2026, except for Australia, which may need further easing [4][35]. 5. **Risks to Growth**: - Upside risks include stronger private sector spending in the U.S. and faster-than-expected adoption of AI, which could enhance productivity [4]. - Downside risks involve a potential mild recession in the U.S. that could negatively impact non-technology exports in Asia [4]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Technology vs. Non-Technology Exports**: - While technology exports have been strong, they account for only about 25% of total exports, limiting their spillover effects on the broader economy [3][13]. - Non-technology exports, which make up 75% of total exports, are expected to benefit from easing trade tensions and monetary easing effects [3][4][13]. 2. **Capital Expenditure**: - The improvement in non-technology exports is anticipated to positively influence capital expenditure, with growth expected to rise to 3.7% in H1 2026 and further accelerate to 4.4% in H2 2026 [27][29]. 3. **Consumer Spending**: - A dual recovery in exports and capital spending is expected to enhance labor market conditions, leading to a rebound in previously weak disposable income consumption [31][33]. 4. **Country-Specific Insights**: - **China**: Expected to see real GDP growth improve but nominal GDP growth remains subdued due to ongoing real estate weakness [45]. - **India**: Projected to have the strongest nominal GDP growth in Asia, driven by tax cuts and improved consumer sentiment [45]. - **Japan**: Expected to maintain strong nominal GDP growth supported by expansionary fiscal policies [46]. - **Korea**: Anticipated recovery in consumption driven by improved real income and fiscal support [46]. - **ASEAN**: Economic performance is expected to be mixed, with Malaysia and Singapore benefiting from non-tech export recovery, while Indonesia and Thailand face challenges [47]. Conclusion The 2026 Asia Economics Outlook presents a cautiously optimistic view of the region's economic recovery, driven by a shift from technology to non-technology sectors, with significant implications for GDP growth, inflation, and consumer spending across various Asian economies [3][4][35].

11月24日，国际金价走出"w"字形波动态势。现货黄金日内一度跌破4040美元，震荡上行已突破4080美元，最终 收于4134.55美元/盎司。 编辑/刘忠禹 分析人士认为，美联储12月降息概率从上周的40%一路飙升至81%，市场对宽松预期的重新定价成为本轮金价拉 高的主因。 高盛最新预计，美联储将在12月的会议上实施连续第三次降息。该行认为，通胀放缓以及劳动力市场降温，为政 策制定者进一步放松货币政策提供了空间。高盛还预计，美联储2026年再降息两次，分别在3月和6月，最终将联 邦基金利率降至3.00%–3.25%的区间。 11月25日，现货黄金一度涨超4150美元关口，最高报4155.89美元/盎司。截至发稿时，现货黄金涨幅有所缩小，报 4142.52美元/盎司。消息面上，美联储理事沃勒主张在12月降息。 文/北京青年报记者 张鑫 道明证券大宗商品策略主管Bart Melek表示："市场越来越相信美联储12月必然降息。"在实物利率下行、通胀预期 温和的背景下，黄金作为零息资产的吸引力被彻底激活。 由于此前美国政府停摆，大量重磅数据被推迟发布，本周将迎来密集补数据窗口。周二将公布推迟已久的零售销 售、PPI ...

（原标题：金价大逆转！美联储理事沃勒：主张在12月降息） 【导读】美联储理事沃勒：主张在12月降息 11月24日，美联储理事沃勒主张在12月降息，现货黄金短线拉升。 美联储理事沃勒：主张在12月降息 高盛预计美联储12月降息 11月24日，高盛最新预计，美联储将在12月的会议上实施连续第三次降息。 该行认为，通胀放缓以及劳动力市场降温，为政策制定者进一步放松货币政策提供了空间。"明年的风 险倾向于进行更多次降息，因为核心通胀方面的消息一直有利，而就业市场的恶化，可能难以通过我们 预期的温和的周期性增长加速来遏制。"高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius在一份报告中表示。 高盛还预计，美联储2026年再降息两次，分别在3月和6月，最终将联邦基金利率降至3.00%～3.25%的 区间。 沃勒称，大多数私营部门数据显示就业市场疲软，没有迹象表明企业即将掀起招聘热潮，9月份就业数 据可能会被下修。明年1月份将充满挑战，大量数据将陆续公布，以判断是否需要再次降息，需要逐次 进行评估。如果数据出现反弹，可以更加谨慎。 "通胀率有所上升，但我认为它将开始下降。"沃勒表示，关税对通胀的影响不大，只是一次性的。 此外，沃勒还透 ...

以色列央行行长Yaron：目前的经济条件适宜降息。降息的可能性得益于以下因素：供应限制减少、导 致通胀放缓，本币谢克尔走强，风险溢价降低。地缘政治和经济不确定性仍然很高，并且我们仍然看到 强劲的消费者需求。降息将是非常渐进的，到2026年9月前再进行两次25个基点的降息似乎是合理的； 不会回到零利率。希望2026年的国家预算能够降低支出，因为目前加沙的大部分战斗已经结束。 ...

Market Performance - US stock market indices showed significant gains, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.03% and the Nasdaq Composite increasing by 1.78%. Notable stocks such as Google, Tesla, and Broadcom saw their gains exceed 5% [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index also experienced an increase of 2.38%, reaching 7692.89 points [2] Federal Reserve Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will implement its third consecutive rate cut in December, citing easing inflation and a cooling labor market as factors allowing for further monetary policy relaxation [5] - The bank anticipates two additional rate cuts in March and June 2026, bringing the federal funds rate down to a range of 3.00% to 3.25% [5] - Goldman Sachs believes that the Fed will increasingly trust the trend of slowing inflation, suggesting that monetary policy does not need to remain at a restrictive level [6] Economic Conditions - Analysts from Goldman Sachs indicate that while the Fed may maintain a cautious tone in the short term, the trajectory of core prices and wage growth suggests a gradual transition to a neutral policy stance next year [7] - Since the Fed began its rate-cutting cycle, financial conditions have significantly eased, stabilizing corporate borrowing costs and household credit flow [8] - By mid-2026, Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to complete its first substantial easing cycle since the pandemic, with rates significantly lower than last year's peak but still above the ultra-loose levels of the past decade [8] Market Expectations - According to CME FedWatch data, the market currently estimates a 30.5% probability that the Fed will maintain rates in December, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has risen to 69.5%, up from approximately 42% a week prior [9] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data that had accumulated during the US federal government shutdown will be released prior to the Fed's December meeting. This includes the October Producer Price Index (PPI) from the Labor Department and the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is favored by the Fed, along with the revised third-quarter GDP data [10]

11月24日，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）重申其观点，支持在12月降息。 沃勒表示，自美联储上次会议以来，现有数据显示变化不大，通胀并非大问题。"我担心的是劳动力市场，主张在12月降息。" 【导读】美联储理事沃勒：主张在12月降息 中国基金报记者 李智 11月24日，美联储理事沃勒主张在12月降息，现货黄金短线拉升。 美联储理事沃勒：主张在12月降息 此外，沃勒还透露，大约10天前与美国财长贝森特谈过，两人会谈非常顺利。目前美国政府正在寻找一位有经验、知道如何胜任这项工作（美联储主席） 的人。 11月24日，据CME"美联储观察"，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为69.4%，维持利率不变的概率为30.6%。美联储到明年1月累计降息25个基点的概率为 56.9%，维持利率不变的概率为20.8%，累计降息50个基点的概率为22.3%。 沃勒称，大多数私营部门数据显示就业市场疲软，没有迹象表明企业即将掀起招聘热潮，9月份就业数据可能会被下修。明年1月份将充满挑战，大量数据 将陆续公布，以判断是否需要再次降息，需要逐次进行评估。如果数据出现反弹，可以更加谨慎。 "通胀率有所上升 ...