周三亚洲早盘，市场在避险需求回流、重要数据延迟以及政策前景存在分歧的背景下呈现反复震荡。随 着投资者重新审视美联储12月的政策方向，黄金借势出现企稳回升，而美元在多重信号并存的环境中继 续维持区间内高位波动。 • 关注波动风险：重大数据前后或出现价格快速拉升或回落，建议适当降低杠杆并设置严格止损。 • 中期判断需结合政策与全球风险因素，避免因单一数据作出情绪化操作。 在避险需求升温的带动下，黄金短线重新站回4070美元附近；然而，美联储官员偏鹰的观点正持续压缩 市场对年底降息的期待，使得金价上行依旧受限。随着FOMC纪要与推迟的非农数据陆续发布，市场方 向或在未来48小时内迎来关键分水岭。当前更适合以风控与事件观察为主，等待更加明确的走向再行布 局。 若非农偏弱→美元承压→黄金获得更强动能 若非农偏强→降息预期继续降温→金价或再次承压 在结果落地之前，金价大概率仍保持在4030—4080美元之间震荡整理，等待明确指引出现。 经历了连续几日的压力后，黄金（XAU/USD）在早盘重新获得部分买盘关注，价格回到约4070美元附 近。由于政府停摆造成部分关键经济指标滞后发布，市场重新评估就业表现对联储决策的权重，使得 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing interest in gold as a safe-haven asset, driven by geopolitical and financial risks, with significant purchases by central banks and rising gold prices expected to continue [3] - As of November 18, 2025, the gold ETF fund has seen a 0.50% increase over the past two weeks, with a current price of 8.87 yuan and a trading volume of 6397.36 million yuan [2] - Gold prices have risen 55% year-to-date, influenced by economic concerns, geopolitical tensions, and increased inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs estimates that central banks purchased 64 tons of gold in September, a significant increase from 21 tons in August, indicating a trend towards diversifying reserves [3] - The recent hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials have corrected previous overly optimistic rate cut expectations, contributing to a price pullback in gold, although strong support is seen around the $4000 per ounce level [3] - The latest net inflow into the gold ETF fund is 3.65 billion yuan, with a total of 10 billion yuan in net inflows over the past five trading days, indicating strong investor interest [3]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a "V-shaped reversal," with prices stabilizing after a brief dip, supported by ongoing central bank purchases and expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au9999 gold price fell to a low of 926 CNY per gram but rebounded to 930.04 CNY per gram, showing a slight decline of 0.18 CNY from the previous trading day [1]. - International gold prices also recovered, with spot gold priced at 4045.5 USD per ounce, maintaining above the 4000 USD mark [1]. - The retail market shows price stability for brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang, with prices for 999 gold remaining between 592-598 CNY per gram, down 15-20 CNY from previous highs [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global central bank gold purchases have been robust, with China increasing its holdings for 12 consecutive months and a total of 634 tons purchased globally in the first nine months of the year [5]. - The Federal Reserve's unchanged interest rate cut expectations for 2026 are supporting the mid-term outlook for gold prices, with a market pricing in a 50 basis point cut [5]. - Gold production is facing bottlenecks, with marginal production costs rising to 1500 USD per ounce, providing fundamental support for gold prices [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Institutions are collectively bullish on the gold market, with China International Capital Corporation predicting a continuation of the bull market, potentially exceeding 5000 USD per ounce next year [9]. - YLG Bullion has set a year-end target for gold prices between 4380-4400 USD per ounce, emphasizing opportunities for buying on dips [9]. - For retail investors, it is suggested to consider purchasing gold during price corrections and to adopt a systematic investment strategy to avoid volatility [9].

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have led to a decline in domestic gold jewelry prices, with significant drops observed since November 14, 2023 [1][2] Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Spot gold prices fell sharply, dropping by 0.8% to $4063.73 per ounce as of the report [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have seen consecutive declines, with notable reductions in prices for brands such as Lao Miao and Zhou Dafu [1][2] Group 2: Bank Adjustments - Commercial banks are adjusting the minimum investment amounts for gold accumulation products, with Citic Bank raising the minimum from 1000 yuan to 1500 yuan starting November 15, 2025 [3] - Other banks, including Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, have also increased their minimum purchase amounts for gold accumulation products [3] Group 3: Market Analysis - Analysts attribute the recent gold price decline to a temporary easing of U.S. government shutdown risks and a decrease in safe-haven demand [3] - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has dropped significantly, contributing to the pressure on gold prices [3] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term volatility, many institutions maintain a long-term bullish outlook on gold, with UBS predicting a potential peak of $5000 per ounce between 2026 and 2027 [4] - Citigroup presents multiple scenarios for gold prices, suggesting a 30% probability of a bull market pushing prices to $6000 per ounce by the end of 2027 [4][5] - Citigroup also indicates a 50% probability of a price correction to $3650 per ounce in 2026, and a 20% probability of a bear market scenario leading to prices around $3000 per ounce [5]

Price Trends - Domestic gold jewelry prices have experienced a three-day decline starting from the 14th, with Lao Miao gold jewelry priced at 1289 yuan/gram, down 36 yuan/gram from the 13th; Lao Feng Xiang gold jewelry at 1293 yuan/gram, down 32 yuan/gram; and Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang both at 1305 yuan/gram, down 28 yuan and 23 yuan respectively from their high points on the 14th [2][3] Bank Adjustments - Several banks, including China CITIC Bank and China Construction Bank, have raised the minimum investment amount for gold accumulation products, with CITIC Bank increasing the minimum from 1000 yuan to 1500 yuan effective November 15, 2025 [3][4] - Some banks have shifted their gold accumulation model from fixed amounts to variable amounts based on gold price fluctuations [5] Market Analysis - International gold prices have shown significant pullbacks after reaching recent highs, attributed to the temporary easing of U.S. government shutdown risks and a decrease in safe-haven demand [5] - Analysts suggest that macroeconomic and geopolitical factors affecting gold prices remain complex, with ongoing U.S. fiscal deficits and high geopolitical risks in regions like the Middle East [5] - Despite short-term volatility, many institutions maintain a long-term bullish outlook on gold, with UBS strategists predicting gold could reach 5000 USD/ounce between 2026 and 2027 [5] Future Scenarios - Citigroup has outlined multiple scenarios for gold prices, including a bullish scenario where gold could reach 6000 USD/ounce by the end of 2027 if there is a significant reallocation of global wealth [6] - Citigroup's base case anticipates a price drop to 3650 USD/ounce in 2026 due to an improving U.S. economic environment, while a bearish scenario could see prices fall to around 3000 USD/ounce if geopolitical tensions and fiscal concerns ease significantly [6]

每经编辑｜金冥羽 潘海福 11月17日下午，现货黄金直线跳水，一度跌0.8%。截至发稿，报4063.73美元/盎司。 | W | 伦敦金现 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | 4063.730 | 昨结 4082.159 开盘 | 4084.650 | | -18.429 -0.45% | 总量(kg) 0.00 现手 | O | | 最高价 4109.720 | 持 仓 0 外 盘 | O | | 最低价 4049.440 | 曾 එ O R | O | | 分时 | 五日 日Ｋ 周Ｋ 月Ｋ | 明名 | | 叠加 | | 盘口 | | 4114.878 | | 0.80% 卖1 4064.270 0 | | | द्री। | 4063.980 0 | | | | 14:04 4064.015 0 | | | | 0 14:04 4063.990 | | | 0.00% | 14:04 4064.052 0 | | | | 14:04 4063.810 0 | | | | 14:04 4064.032 0 | | | | 0 14:04 406 ...

美瑞关税谈判传闻利好瑞郎，市场预期美国对瑞士商品进口税率或从39%下调至15%，若落地将改善瑞 士出口企业盈利，增强经常项目稳健性，为瑞郎提供额外支撑。 美元兑瑞郎技术分析 支撑位：下方即时支撑为前期低点0.7918-0.7922区间，若跌破将下探0.7900整数关口，更深层次支撑关 注0.7885（10月28日低点），该位置构成近期重要支撑平台。阻力位：短期上方阻力聚焦0.7950-0.7960 区间，进一步阻力指向11月6日高点0.8012，突破后或打开向0.8050的反弹空间，但当前动能不足，突破 难度较大。 周一（11月17日）美元兑瑞士法郎交投于0.7942附近，呈小幅上行态势，当前汇价受美联储降息预期、 瑞士央行稳利率立场及避险需求共同影响，维持低位震荡格局，技术面偏向弱势整理，关键点位突破将 决定后续方向。 "美联储观察"显示，12月降息25个基点的概率已升至65%，鸽派官员发声支持宽松，强化市场对利率偏 紧的担忧，美元指数承压于99.50附近，难以给汇价提供上行动力。美国政府停摆结束后，积压经济数 据即将集中发布，市场提前定价经济放缓风险，进一步抑制美元反弹空间。 瑞士央行多次表态当前利率水平 ...

云期研究分析认为，美国政府停摆结束带来的利好降低了黄金短期避险吸引力，同时多位美联储官员释 放了将谨慎行事的意愿，市场对美联储12月降息预测大幅下滑至不足50%，美指再度获得支撑，贵金属 遭遇抛售，回吐了本周大部分涨幅。但美国政府依旧面临多重问题，市场担忧尚未完全消退，同时地缘 紧张局势加剧也提振避险需求，黄金短期不排除再次考验下方支撑，整体将维持震荡走势，中长期上涨 趋势不变。 11月10日-11月14日，上周初黄金市场受美政府结束停摆影响，流动性担忧缓解，金价连续走强，随着 美联储官员释放鹰派言论，周中金价连续大幅回调，黄金现货期货价格双双跌破4100美元，截至收盘， COMEX黄金期货周度涨1.86%报4084.4美元/盎司，截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏(518850)周度涨3.5%， 黄金股ETF(159562)周度涨2.79%。 受美国政府停摆影响，美国经济数据大量缺失，白宫表示，可能永远不会发布美国10月CPI和就业数 据，美联储官员对12月降息十分谨慎。柯林斯表示，她认为短期内进一步降息的门槛"相对较高"，原因 是对通胀仍处高位的担忧。美联储博斯蒂克表示，他倾向于维持利率不变，直到有"明确证据" ...

今年以来，商品ETF市场迎来"双丰收"：规模较年初增长超200%，达到2300亿元；业绩表现可圈可点， 最高超53%。 业内人士表示，商品ETF的规模和业绩实现双增长，是避险需求、政策预期与资金虹吸共同作用的结 果。 年内规模增长205% 数据显示，截至11月13日，今年以来，17只商品ETF资金合计净流入966.24亿元，总规模达到2314亿 元，较年初增长205.79%。其中，华安黄金ETF以878.37亿元规模领先；博时、易方达旗下黄金ETF规模 也较大，分别为390.71亿元、338.66亿元。 汇成基金研究中心表示，商品基金规模增长主要源于三大核心驱动：其一，避险需求集中爆发，地缘冲 突与经济不确定性推动黄金ETF规模大幅增长，占商品ETF总增量的约70%，因其优化资产配置、对冲 权益风险的功能凸显；其二，政策与市场环境优化，证监会推动指数化投资高质量发展，叠加养老金、 保险等中长期资金加速入市，个人投资者占比持续提升，被动投资理念普及；其三，ETF产品优势契合 当前投资者需求，低费率、高透明和交易便捷性比较符合分散化配置诉求。 晨星（中国）基金研究中心分析师崔悦表示，商品ETF以黄金ETF为主，黄 ...

（原标题：规模飙升超200%！这类基金火了） 【导读】避险需求爆发，商品ETF"双丰收" 中国基金报记者 曹雯璟 今年以来，商品ETF市场迎来"双丰收"：规模较年初增长超200%，达到2300亿元；业绩表现可圈可点， 最高超53%。 业内人士表示，商品ETF的规模和业绩实现双增长，是避险需求、政策预期与资金虹吸共同作用的结 果。 年内规模增长205% 数据显示，截至11月13日，今年以来，17只商品ETF资金合计净流入966.24亿元，总规模达到2314亿 元，较年初增长205.79%。其中，华安黄金ETF以878.37亿元规模领先；博时、易方达旗下黄金ETF规模 也较大，分别为390.71亿元、338.66亿元。 周期属性在全球需求疲软下转为业绩拖累。而且，能源转型加速压制传统油气价格，工业金属需求受经 济增长放缓制约，而黄金受益于央行持续购金的稳定需求支撑，基本面结构性分化显著。此外，市场风 格轮动中资金明确从周期品转向防御资产，加剧了资金流动的不平衡。 汇成基金研究中心表示，商品基金规模增长主要源于三大核心驱动：其一，避险需求集中爆发，地缘冲 突与经济不确定性推动黄金ETF规模大幅增长，占商品ETF总增 ...