Report Industry Investment Rating - For the steel product industry, it is recommended to be treated with a bias towards short positions in a volatile market [1] - For the raw material industry, it is recommended to try short positions on rebounds [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel product market is currently affected by high supply and weak demand, with prices continuously bottoming out. As it enters the seasonal demand off - season, it is difficult for demand to improve substantially in the short term [1] Summary by Related Content Steel Product - As of May 29, 2025, 7 Shandong steel mills have adjusted their annual crude steel production to 55.63 million tons, a decrease of about 3.5 million tons compared to the same period last year [1] - This week, the supply of Mysteel's five major steel products was 8.8085 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 84,100 tons, an increase of 1% [1] - The total inventory of the five major steel products was 13.656 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 329,400 tons. Among them, the social inventory was 9.3254 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 280,200 tons; the steel mill inventory was 4.3306 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 49,200 tons [1] - After continuous decline, the steel product price rebounded slightly yesterday. The weekly inventory continued to decline, and the apparent demand increased slightly [1] Raw Material - The raw material market is recommended to try short positions on rebounds [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the rebar 2510 contract rose 1.52%. Although the molten iron output decreased slightly, the supply remained at a high level, while the demand faced seasonal decline pressure. Driven by the macro - factors, steel prices rebounded slightly last week. Recently, steel prices are mainly stable and volatile, and there may still be a small rebound space [4][34]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Analysis - As of May 16, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,200 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin, it was 3,210 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [9]. Important Market Information - The Chinese side believes that the US practice of imposing 232 tariffs on imported automobiles, steel, aluminum and launching a 232 investigation on imported drugs is a typical act of unilateralism and protectionism, which not only damages the rights and interests of other countries and undermines the multilateral trading system based on rules, but also does no good to the development of its own industries. The Chinese side urges the US to stop the 232 tariff measures as soon as possible [14]. Supply - side Situation - According to Mysteel data, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills last week was 84.15%, a decrease of 0.47% month - on - month and an increase of 2.65% year - on - year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 91.76%, a decrease of 0.33% month - on - month and an increase of 3.19% year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 7.36% year - on - year; the daily average molten iron output was 244.77 million tons, a decrease of 0.87 million tons month - on - month. The overall operating rate of 87 section steel production lines in Tangshan last week was 55.93%, an increase of 13.56% month - on - month, and the section steel capacity utilization rate was 51.68%, an increase of 3.86% month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines last week was 89.3%, a decrease of 0.7% month - on - month. The daily average output of raw coal was 200.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.5 million tons month - on - month, and the raw coal inventory was 606.8 million tons, an increase of 27.0 million tons month - on - month [4][33]. Demand - side Situation - In April 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI in the construction industry was 51.9, a decrease of 1.5% month - on - month; the current value of the steel circulation industry purchasing manager index of Lange Steel was 48.8, a decrease of 3.8% month - on - month [22]. Inventory - side Situation No specific inventory data was provided in the content other than the inventory - related section title. Fundamental Analysis - According to the data of the Pilbara Ports Authority (PPA) in Australia, the iron ore exports from Port Hedland decreased to 46.6938 billion tons in April 2025 from 50.6610 billion tons in March; the spodumene concentrate exports decreased to 109,789 tons from 143,640 tons in March. Among them, the iron ore exports from Port Hedland to China in April were 41.1047 billion tons, compared with 41.1912 billion tons in March [33]. 后市展望 - Last week, the molten iron output decreased slightly, but the supply remained at a high level, while the demand faced seasonal decline pressure. Driven by the macro - factors, steel prices rebounded slightly last week. Recently, steel prices are mainly stable and volatile, and there may still be a small rebound space [4][34]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to treat the market as stable, volatile and rebounding [5][35].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the black metal market is experiencing significant fluctuations, with current prices showing slight increases in various regions, but overall demand remains weak and the medium to long-term trend is downward [1] - Steel production is decreasing overall, with a slowdown in inventory reduction and an accumulation of inventory in construction materials, while the demand for steel has significantly declined [1] - There are rumors that domestic export inspections may increase in May, which, combined with overseas tariff impacts, could lead to a decline in steel exports [1] Group 2 - The recent monetary policy adjustments include a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point decrease in the policy interest rate, which is expected to influence steel prices [1] - As of May 6, the funding availability rate for construction sites is reported at 58.95%, with a slight week-on-week increase, indicating a mixed outlook for construction projects [1] - The funding availability rate for non-residential projects is higher at 60.47%, while residential projects lag behind at 51.38%, reflecting varying levels of financial support across different construction sectors [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April, steel prices oscillated downward under the dominance of macro - negative factors, despite some improvement in the steel market fundamentals during the peak season. The low inventory of steel has limited positive effects due to differentiation among varieties and regions, and the uncertainty of inventory depletion in the coming off - season. [5] - Steel mills maintained high production levels as their profitability did not deteriorate, leading to a high supply of steel. There is a risk that the pressure from off - balance - sheet steel may transfer to on - balance - sheet steel, increasing supply pressure. [5] - Steel demand improved seasonally but was lackluster during the peak season, with a continued differentiation in strength among varieties. Construction steel demand is expected to remain weak, while plate demand is supported by the domestic manufacturing industry but has potential risks from overseas. [5] - Looking ahead, overseas risks will still affect the steel market, but the impact will weaken. As demand shifts from peak to off - season and external demand has potential risks, steel prices are likely to come under pressure. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills. [6] Summary According to the Directory 1. 4 - Month Steel Prices Declined Weakly - In April, steel prices oscillated downward under the influence of macro - negative factors such as the intensification of the Sino - US trade war. By April 25, the main futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased by 4.50% and 5.18% respectively compared to the end of last month, hitting new lows for the year. Spot prices were relatively resilient, showing a low - level oscillating trend. [12] - In April, the basis of steel strengthened significantly, and the term structure of rebar and hot - rolled coil remained in a contango structure with a narrowing premium for far - month contracts. The strength of varieties switched again, and the price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar decreased. [13] 2. Steel Inventory Depleted with a Decent Decline - By the week of April 25, the total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 11.71% compared to the end of last month, reaching a low level in recent years. Construction steel inventory decreased significantly, while plate inventory depletion was less due to high supply. [22][25] - Steel social inventory decreased by 13.58% compared to the end of last month, while factory inventory decreased by 6.88%. The inventory of rebar continued to deplete, but there were concerns about the inflection point. The inventory of hot - rolled coil continued to deplete, but the decline was narrowing, and the pressure remained. [26][32][40] 3. Steel Supply Remained High and Pressure Needed to be Alleviated - In the peak season, steel mills were actively producing, and steel supply returned to a high level. From January to March, domestic crude steel production increased by 0.60% year - on - year. In April, steel mills increased production again. High - frequency data also showed that steel supply was rising. [48] - As of the week of April 25, the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills reached 84.33% and 91.60% respectively. The production of short - process steel mills was also active. The supply increase was mainly in off - balance - sheet steel. [51] - The production of construction steel mills was active, and rebar production was at a high level. The production of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly due to maintenance but was expected to increase again. [61][65] 4. Steel Demand Improved Seasonally with Differentiated Strength among Varieties 4.1 High - Frequency Demand Indicators Continued to Rise - By the week of April 25, the weekly apparent demand for steel increased by 6.49 tons compared to the end of last month, but was still lower than the same period last year. In April, the total steel demand increased by 4.16% compared to the same period last month but decreased by 3.87% year - on - year. [68] - Construction steel demand improved seasonally but was still weak, while plate demand was supported by the domestic manufacturing industry but faced potential risks from overseas. [69] - Rebar demand improved but with limited increase and was expected to weaken seasonally. Hot - rolled coil demand showed weakening resilience, and the demand expectation was weak. [74][82] 4.2 Steel Exports Reached a High Level, Beware of Hidden Risks Materializing - In March, China's steel exports reached 10.456 million tons, a new monthly high. From January to March, cumulative steel exports increased by 6.3% year - on - year. However, the steel export situation is becoming more severe as Vietnam and South Korea have launched anti - dumping investigations on Chinese steel. [89][90] - The export price difference has increased, strengthening the order - taking ability. Before the anti - dumping rulings, there was a "rush to export" situation. The increase in billet exports compensated for the decline in finished steel exports. Overall, steel export demand was expected to remain at a relatively high level but faced risks. [91][92] 4.3 The Economy Started Well and Policies Remained Steady - In the first quarter of 2025, the domestic economy started well, with GDP growing by 5.4% in real terms and 4.6% in nominal terms year - on - year. Industrial production was strong, and the service industry also showed an upward trend. [95] - Investment improved steadily, with the narrowing of the drag from the real estate sector. In the real estate market, sales improved, and the cash flow of real estate enterprises improved marginally, but the demand for steel in the real estate sector was expected to remain weak. [98][101] - Infrastructure investment accelerated, with the issuance of infrastructure funds speeding up. Policy support was expected to continue to promote infrastructure investment in the second quarter. [108] 5. Conclusion - In April, steel prices declined under the influence of macro - negative factors. Steel inventory depleted, but the positive effect was limited. Steel supply remained high, and demand improved seasonally but was lackluster. [115] - Looking ahead, overseas risks will still affect the steel market, but the impact will weaken. As demand enters the off - season and external demand has potential risks, steel prices are likely to come under pressure, and attention should be paid to the production of steel mills. [118]

今年一季度国内经济数据表现超预期，房地产行业多项指标降幅显著收窄，基建与制造业投资增速明显 加快，内需表现出强劲韧性。当前钢价走弱的主要压力来自出口端：2月越南对中国钢材启动反倾销征 税措施，美国也在1—4月期间对中国商品加码关税。尽管关税对出口的后续影响仍存在不确定性，但目 前期货盘面已基本消化相关利空因素。考虑到未来关税方面存在谈判缓和空间，且国内政策有望进一步 加码，预计钢价已触及阶段性低点，短期将开启震荡反弹走势。 2025年1月至4月中旬，钢材价格呈震荡下行态势。这一阶段，铁水产量超出市场预期，但原材料供应整 体较为宽松。焦煤因库存高企，价格持续承压下跌；铁矿石除2月受飓风短暂扰动外，在高供应预期下 价格同样疲软，双重因素使钢材生产成本不断走低。 出口端的冲击同样显著。2月21日，越南宣布对原产于印度和中国的部分热轧钢产品征收临时反倾销 税，最高税率达27.83%。2025年一季度，美国不仅对中国商品加征20%的关税，还针对钢铁和铝进口额 外加征25%关税。进入4月，美国实施所谓"对等关税"政策。在贸易保护主义抬头的背景下，全球经济 前景不明，进一步加剧了钢材价格的下行压力。 4月钢材市场呈现结构性 ...