Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the **gold and precious metals industry**, particularly the comparison between gold and interest-bearing assets like the S&P 500 over a long-term horizon [1][5][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Long-term Performance**: Gold and the S&P 500 have achieved similar annualized compound growth rates of approximately **7.2%** over the past **65 years**, challenging traditional views on non-yielding assets [1][5]. - **Market Cycles**: Historical analysis indicates that the market has experienced two major cycles over the past **65 years**, each lasting about **30-40 years**, where initially interest-bearing assets perform well, followed by a period where value-preserving assets like gold gain strength [1][7]. - **Current Market Position**: The market is at a critical juncture where the returns of gold and the S&P 500 are converging. The outcome in the next **one to two years** will depend on whether the AI industry can sustain the S&P 500 or if economic stagnation will lead to a rise in gold prices [1][8]. - **Extreme Scenarios for Gold Prices**: In extreme scenarios, gold prices could reach **$10,000** in a situation similar to the **1980s stagflation**, or **$4,154** during a recession akin to **2011**, indicating significant potential for price increases under adverse economic conditions [1][9][10]. - **Asset Allocation Strategies**: During economic recessions, it is advised to avoid risk assets and hold cash and gold. However, in stagflation periods, cash may depreciate, making physical assets like gold more advantageous [1][11]. Additional Important Insights - **Copper-Gold Ratio**: The copper-gold ratio has reached a historical low, similar to the **1980s stagflation**, indicating weak expectations for the manufacturing and industrial sectors, which reflects a broader slowdown in global economic momentum [2][13]. - **Future of Gold as a Value Asset**: The current economic environment suggests that the bull market for gold may not be over, with potential risks of the U.S. economy declining further, transitioning from a soft landing to a more severe downturn [1][14]. - **Investment Recommendations**: In the current low-interest-rate environment, a cautious approach to gold stocks is advised, but the potential for significant returns exists due to low valuation levels. Specific stocks such as **Shandong Gold, Chifeng Gold**, and others are recommended for investment [1][15][16]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the gold market's dynamics, investment strategies, and economic indicators.

1. Hot News - Houthi rebels attacked the Greek - operated, Liberian - flagged vessel "ETERNITY C" near Hodeidah, Yemen, resulting in two deaths. It's the first seaman - fatality incident in the Red Sea since June 2024 [2] - In June, domestic retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles reached 1.111 million, a year - on - year increase of 29.7%. In the first six months, the cumulative domestic retail sales reached 5.468 million, a year - on - year increase of 33.3% [2] - Trump said on the 7th that starting from August 1st, he will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imported products from 14 countries including Japan and South Korea. China's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning stated that tariff and trade wars have no winners, and protectionism harms the interests of all parties [2] - Australian Prime Minister Albanese will make an official visit to China from July 12th to 18th at the invitation of Chinese Premier Li Qiang [2] - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on the 7th that he expects to meet with Chinese officials in the coming weeks to promote consultations on trade and other issues [2] 2. Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are coking coal, pure benzene, methanol, urea, and asphalt [3] 3. Night - session Performance - In the night - session, different commodity sectors had varying performances. Non - metallic building materials rose 2.82%, precious metals 27.55%, oilseeds and oils 12.51%, non - ferrous metals 20.69%, soft commodities 2.84%, coal - coke - steel - ore 13.84%, energy 3.11%, chemicals 12.69%, grains 1.18%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.77% [3] 4. Plate Positions - The chart shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, covering various sectors such as agricultural and sideline products, grains, chemicals, energy, coal - coke - steel - ore, non - ferrous metals, etc. [4] 5. Performance of Major Asset Classes - **Equity**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.70% daily, 1.54% monthly, and 4.35% annually; the S&P 500 fell 0.07% daily but had a 0.33% monthly and 5.85% annual increase; the Hang Seng Index rose 1.09% daily, 0.31% monthly, and 20.38% annually [5] - **Fixed - income**: 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.08% daily, had a 0.11% monthly increase, and a 0.09% annual increase; 5 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.08% daily, 0.02% monthly, and 0.38% annually [5] - **Commodities**: The CRB Commodity Index rose 1.01% daily, 1.69% monthly, and 1.88% annually; WTI crude oil rose 0.47% daily, 5.00% monthly, but fell 5.10% annually; London spot gold fell 1.07% daily, 0.05% monthly, but rose 25.78% annually [5] - **Others**: The US Dollar Index fell 0.06% daily, had a 0.74% monthly increase, and a 10.13% annual decrease; the CBOE Volatility Index remained unchanged daily, had a 6.34% monthly increase, and a 2.54% annual increase [5] 6. Trends of Major Commodities - The report presents the trends of multiple major commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn, as well as the ratios of gold to oil and copper to gold, and the risk premiums of some stock indices [6]

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In May 2025, the CPI year-on-year was -0.1%, unchanged from the previous month, while the PPI year-on-year was -3.3%, down from -2.7%[2][28] - The month-on-month CPI shifted from positive to negative, decreasing by 0.2% compared to the previous month[3][18] - The core CPI year-on-year increased to 0.6%, up from 0.5% in the previous month, indicating a slight recovery[5][18] Group 2: Key Influencing Factors - The decline in CPI was primarily driven by a 1.7% drop in energy prices, which accounted for approximately 70% of the total CPI decrease[4][18] - Seasonal increases in vegetable supply led to a 5.9% drop in fresh vegetable prices, contributing to the overall decline in CPI[5][18] - Core CPI's increase was supported by rising gold prices, a narrowing decline in energy prices, and increased transportation rental fees due to holiday effects[5][18] Group 3: Future Projections - If pork prices rise unexpectedly to 40 CNY per kilogram and oil prices also increase, the CPI could potentially reach an annual growth of 0.2% in 2025[3][8] - The core CPI is expected to stabilize around 0.2% for the year if utility prices rise again, indicating a potential recovery in consumer prices[9][8] - The PPI is anticipated to remain under pressure in June 2025, influenced by international input factors and domestic energy price declines[12][14]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In March 2025, the CPI year-on-year decline narrowed to -0.1%, improving by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month’s -0.7%[6] - The CPI month-on-month decreased by -0.4%, a decline of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month’s -0.2%[6] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.5% year-on-year, reversing from a decline of -0.1% in the previous month[5] Group 2: Food and Energy Impact - Food prices fell by 1.4% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 1.9 percentage points from the previous month[5] - Key food items like beef, fresh vegetables, and eggs saw price drops of 10.8%, 6.8%, and 1.6% respectively, contributing to the overall CPI decline[5] - International oil prices decreased, contributing to a month-on-month CPI decline of approximately 0.12 percentage points[3] Group 3: PPI Insights - The PPI year-on-year decline was -2.5%, worsening from -2.2% in the previous month[26] - Month-on-month, the PPI decreased by -0.4%, a decline of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month[26] - The decline in PPI was influenced by falling prices in the oil and gas extraction industry, which dropped by 4.4%[10] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The 2025 CPI target growth rate is set at 2%, a reduction from the previous 3% target established since 2015[7] - The report suggests that the key to exiting the "low-price" environment is to boost core CPI, with real estate market stabilization being crucial[6] - The anticipated impact of tariff increases is expected to result in a 3% decline in export growth, correlating with a 0.20 percentage point drop in PPI and a 1.30 percentage point increase in CPI[15]