Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index is experiencing intense fluctuations around the 3600-point mark, indicating a fierce tug-of-war between bulls and bears [1][3] - On August 5, the index broke through the 3600-point barrier again, closing at 3617.6 points with a daily increase of 0.96% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 16,160.56 billion yuan, with nearly 4,000 stocks rising across the market [1] Investor Sentiment - The market is showing signs of structural capital inflow, with the broker ETF fund seeing a cumulative net subscription of 19.24 million yuan over the past four days [3] - In July, the number of new A-share accounts reached 1.9636 million, a month-on-month increase of nearly 20% and a year-on-year increase of over 70% [3] - The total number of new accounts in the first seven months of the year reached 14.5613 million, a year-on-year increase of 36.88% [3] Sector Performance - The market's bullish sentiment is gradually spreading, although the trend of more stocks rising than falling continues, indicating a clear structural rotation [3] - Financial stocks, particularly banks and brokerages, are the main drivers of the index's rise, while the technology growth sector is also beginning to gain momentum, with the ChiNext Index rising by 0.39% on the same day [3] Future Outlook - Many brokerage firms maintain an optimistic outlook for the market, believing that a slow bull market is likely to continue [3][4] - The current A-share market conditions are seen as conducive to initiating a comprehensive slow bull phase, supported by improving economic and profit fundamentals [3] - Institutions generally expect the market to seek direction amid fluctuations in August, with the earnings disclosure period potentially causing short-term volatility, but the long-term positive trend is expected to remain unchanged [4]

Group 1 - In July 2025, A-share new accounts reached 1.9636 million, a nearly 20% increase from June and over 70% year-on-year growth [1][2] - Individual investors accounted for 1.954 million of the new accounts, while institutional investors contributed 9,600 [1] - Cumulatively, 14.56 million new accounts have been opened in 2025 as of July [1][2] Group 2 - The significant increase in new accounts is attributed to the stock market's profitability, with major indices showing positive performance in July [2][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.74% in July, marking three consecutive months of growth, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index saw increases of 5.2% and 8.14%, respectively [2] - Major brokerages are optimistic about the "slow bull" market trend for the second half of the year, predicting a potential upward trend after a period of consolidation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in the A-share market is a result of profit-taking pressure and changes in expectations after a period of continuous gains, with a focus on the impact of domestic and international economic indicators and policies [1][4][44]. Changes in Expectations - **Decrease in Expectations for Incremental Policies and Cyclical Recovery**: The Politburo meeting in July did not announce significant new policies, emphasizing the need for macro policies to continue while being more detailed. The July PMI data showed a larger decline in domestic demand compared to external demand, indicating a slowdown in internal demand [1][9]. - **Increased Uncertainty Regarding the Fed's Rate Cut Schedule**: The Fed's July FOMC meeting maintained the current rate, with Powell expressing concerns about inflation and labor market resilience. Following disappointing non-farm payroll data, market expectations for a rate cut in September surged from 38% to 80% [2][20]. - **Diminished Expectations for Improvement in US-China Relations**: Recent US trade agreements with allies and ongoing tensions, such as the Nvidia H20 incident, have led to a more cautious outlook on US-China economic relations [3][27]. Unchanged Factors - **Global Monetary Easing and Abundant A-share Liquidity**: The environment remains supportive for equity markets, with the Politburo emphasizing the need for liquidity and lower financing costs. The two-margin financing has seen a net inflow of approximately 169 billion yuan from late June to the end of July [2][30]. - **Investor Bull Market Expectations Remain Intact**: Historical data shows that 5-10% pullbacks are normal during bull markets, and current investor sentiment remains high, suggesting a potential return to upward trends after adjustments [2][35]. - **Structural Prosperity in New Sectors**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has outlined key areas for focus, including expanding domestic demand and technological innovation. Positive earnings forecasts are noted in sectors such as non-bank financials, metals, electronics, and agriculture [3][41].

Group 1 - The overall consensus among brokerage strategies indicates that the short-term index pullback is not a concern, and the "slow bull market" trend remains unchanged [1][3] - The three core logic supporting the previous market rally—policy bottom-line thinking, emergence of new growth drivers, and incremental capital inflow—have not changed [1][3] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has reignited, and domestic macro and micro liquidity remains relatively abundant, which is favorable for the continuation of the A-share slow bull trend [1][3] Group 2 - In the context of economic cycle assets, it is advisable to allocate to sectors that are less sensitive to short-term data, such as brokerage, insurance, financial IT, and real estate [2][3] - The most promising opportunities in the second half of the year are seen in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, particularly in domestic computing power, which faced delays in Q2 but is expected to recover in Q3 [2][3] - Historical data suggests that in liquidity-driven markets, leading sectors tend to be concentrated rather than rotating between high and low performers, indicating a preference for high consensus stocks [2][3] Group 3 - Concerns about the impact of U.S. stock market adjustments on A-shares are noted, with historical data indicating that A-shares are less affected if they are in the early stages of a bull market [4] - The market is expected to experience slight fluctuations during the policy expectation gap and the concentrated disclosure of mid-year reports in August, but the overall bullish trend is anticipated to remain intact [4][5] - The focus on structural opportunities is emphasized, with a long-term positive outlook on the market driven by economic structural transformation and industry trends [4][5] Group 4 - The macro policy is expected to continue to exert force, with an emphasis on implementing existing policies effectively rather than relying on large-scale new stimulus measures [5] - The capital market's role in the national strategic framework is being upgraded, focusing on long-term competitiveness and stability [5]