Macro and Strategy - The fixed income investment strategy focuses on long-term bond wave operations, with a significant decline in default amounts in December, indicating a potential recovery in credit markets [7][8] - Domestic economic growth is expected to slow down, with GDP growth forecasted at approximately 4.3% for Q4 2025, remaining within the government's target range of around 5% [7][8] - The monetary policy meeting in Q4 removed references to "low price operation," indicating a shift in focus towards addressing supply-demand imbalances in the economy [8] Industry and Company - In the transportation sector, improvements in oil exchange rates are beneficial for the airline sector, while leading express companies are strengthening their competitive advantages [3][20] - The banking sector is expected to perform well leading up to the Spring Festival, with historical data showing a high success rate for bank stocks during this period [24][25] - The mechanical industry is seeing significant developments, with the establishment of a standardization committee for humanoid robots and ByteDance planning to invest $23 billion in AI [26][27] - The social services sector has seen a notable increase in duty-free sales in Hainan, with a 54.9% year-on-year growth, indicating strong consumer demand [33][34] - The express delivery industry is benefiting from price increases due to anti-involution policies, with major players like ZTO and YTO showing improved growth rates [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - Hanbo Semiconductor has completed its IPO counseling process, marking a significant step towards its public listing and reflecting the growing interest in domestic GPU companies in China [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Founded in December 2018, Hanbo Semiconductor focuses on high-end GPU chips, aiming to break the monopoly of foreign giants in the global GPU market [3]. - The company has developed core IP independently and launched two generations of GPU chips, creating a product matrix that includes graphics rendering GPUs, data center GPUs, and edge GPUs [3]. - Hanbo Semiconductor employs a highly skilled R&D team of over 500 members, with more than 80% holding advanced degrees, and many members having extensive experience from top companies like AMD and Intel [3]. Group 2: Market Position and Growth Potential - Hanbo Semiconductor's products are being utilized in various high-value sectors, including AI models, smart data centers, and digital twins, demonstrating strong commercialization capabilities [5]. - The Chinese GPU market is projected to reach 1.36 trillion yuan by 2029, driven by ongoing investments in AI infrastructure and a focus on self-sufficiency, positioning Hanbo Semiconductor favorably for growth [5]. - The company has achieved a valuation of 10.5 billion yuan and has attracted investments from major industry players like Alibaba and Kuaishou, indicating strong market confidence [5].

另一方面，风电股大肆走低，龙头金风科技大跌近11%，核电股跟跌，航空股、建材水泥股、钢铁股、 保险股、濠赌股多数表现弱势。此外，港股6只新股今日齐挂牌：英矽智能大涨24.66%，美联股份涨 7.6%，五一视界涨29.9%，林清轩涨9.3%，迅策涨1%，卧安机器人基本平收。(格隆汇) 港股三大指数午后涨幅进一步扩大，一扫昨日高开低走的低迷情绪，恒生科技指数一度大涨至2%，最 终收涨1.74%，恒生指数、国企指数分别上涨0.86%及1.12%，恒指午后再度逼近26000点大关。 盘面上，作为市场风向标的大型科技股拉升强力助力大市上涨，尤其是百度劲升近9%表现十分抢眼， 网易、小米涨超2%，京东、腾讯、阿里巴巴、美团皆上涨；AI基建利好提振，半导体股拉升走强，英 诺赛科大涨超15%领衔上涨，权重中芯国际涨超4%；地缘政治风险再度升温促国际油价大涨，"三桶 油"走高，中海油涨近4%；市场预热特斯拉Optimus发包，美国机器人行政命令望26年发布，机器人概 念股午后拉升明显；国家发改委鼓励大型氧化铝等领域骨干企业实施兼并重组，铝业股领衔有色金属股 反弹。 ...

格隆汇12月30日｜港股上午盘三大指数集体上涨，恒生科技指数涨幅领先，盘中一度冲高至1.4%，午 间收涨1.04%，恒生指数、国企指数分别上涨0.44%及0.67%。大型科技股集体上涨，其中百度大涨近 7%表现抢眼；AI基建利好提振，半导体股拉升走强，英诺赛科领衔上涨，龙头中芯国际涨超3%，银价 企稳，有色金属股集体反弹。另外，风电股跌幅明显，濠赌股继续走低。此外，港股6只新股今日齐挂 牌，其中英矽智能大涨超34%。(格隆汇) | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 恒生指数 | 25749.19 | +0.44% | | 800000 | | | | 国企指数 | 8950.95 | +0.67% | | 800100 | | | | 恒生科技指数 | 5540.17 | +1.04% | | 800700 | | | ...

Industry Overview - In November, excavator sales reached 20,027 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, with domestic sales at 9,842 units (up 9.1%) and exports at 10,185 units (up 18.8%) [1][2] - The construction machinery sector is experiencing a broad recovery, with loader sales at 11,419 units, a year-on-year increase of 32.1%, including domestic sales of 5,631 units (up 29.39%) and exports of 5,748 units (up 34.8%) [1][2] - Sales of automotive cranes reached 1,536 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 16.6%, continuing a positive growth trend for three consecutive months [1][2] AI Infrastructure Demand - The demand for AI-related infrastructure remains strong, with NVIDIA planning to deliver H200 chips to Chinese customers in mid-February, with an expected shipment of 5,000 to 10,000 chip modules, equivalent to approximately 40,000 to 80,000 H200 chips [2] - OpenAI is advancing a financing plan that could reach several hundred billion dollars, potentially up to 100 billion dollars, indicating a robust investment climate in the AI sector [2] Company Highlights 1. **Riyuan Technology** - A leading domestic supplier of industrial X-ray intelligent detection equipment, with a nearly doubled order intake year-on-year in the first half of the year and a revenue increase of 44.01% year-on-year in the first three quarters [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 18.83%, with profit growth expected to improve as the impact of new production base construction and share-based payments diminishes [2] 2. **Kangst** - Engaged in the research and sales of digital testing instruments, the company showed resilience under tariff pressures, with Q3 revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items increasing by 22.24%, 30.66%, and 36.2% year-on-year, respectively [3] - The international business demonstrated strong operational resilience, and the domestic market performance was robust, with growth potential in MEMS sensors [3] 3. **Xinxin Shares** - The company specializes in hard alloys and tools, reporting Q3 revenue growth of 38.02% and net profit attributable to the parent increasing by 75.40% [4] - The significant profit growth is attributed to the company's ability to pass on rising raw material costs to downstream customers, indicating a stable business growth and improving profitability [4]

周末关于商业航天这周分歧的讨论有了结论，不是分歧，是分化。商业航天的票周一（12月29日）分为 两类，一类是别人手里的还在突突，一类是你手里的在分歧。 人家花7亿打板了航天发展，周一怒赚7000万，被称为跨年妖股的有力竞争者，我买了个卫星机构核心 被立案成了真雷科技。仿佛后面两天的剧本我已经看到了，手里的票达芬奇，人家的票玩穿越。 别叫我达芬奇，让我唱首melody。 商业航天这个位置选股如同做奥数题，好歹还是有人能赚到钱，AI那边赚钱的已经不是人。 都不是，是有色。如果在年初买入有色ETF （159876）并持有到现在，已经浮盈90%了。有色锁定年度 冠军的同时把AI打成了副goat。高位高波动是收益率的天敌，有色夺冠的秘诀是不搞轰轰烈烈的加速和 分歧，而是小碎步走趋势，这才叫闷声发大财。 这个走法也决定着，当你注意到期货价格凶猛的时候才想起来买有色股票，往往结局就是当天吃套，周 一冲了锂矿和白银股的朋友应该深有体会。 等到期货阶段性加速了再去掺和个股，往往是多空双杀、反复打脸，与之相比定投基金，做趋势投资就 豁然开朗。 上周日（12月28日）晚上昇腾喜获400亿字节订单的小作文尽管充满了浪漫主义的乐观精神 ...

供给优化，气势升腾——基础化工 2026 年度投资策略 20251229 摘要 化工行业供给端正经历显著变化，欧洲因成本压力产能出清，国内固定 资产投资增速放缓，叠加反内卷政策，部分子行业有望走出供需过剩局 面，改善利润。 中国化学品价格指数（CCPI）和长江化学品板块毛利率均处于历史较低 水平，表明行业正经历周期性波动，未来或迎来上升周期。IMF 预测 2026 年全球 GDP 增速约为 3.09%，中国为 4.2%，外需具备韧性。 新能源、储能、AI 基建等新兴领域对化工产品需求产生积极影响，如新 能源汽车产量高增长、全球储能装机量提升、AI 基建投资热情高涨，拉 动上游材料消费。 国内化工龙头企业上半年业绩同比回落，但海外企业回落速度更快，欧 洲关闭大量产能，中国市场份额显著提升，反内卷政策对治理无序竞争 和推动落后产能退出起到积极作用。 能耗双控及环保政策可能成为推动供给优化的重要抓手，通过限制新增 项目审批和加强现有项目监管来减少过剩产能，从而推动整个行业景气 回升。 Q&A 2026 年度化工行业的投资策略是什么？当前行业供给端发生了哪些变化？ 2026 年度化工行业的投资策略可以概括为"供给优化 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the machinery equipment industry is "Positive" [2] Core Views - The report maintains a positive outlook on humanoid robots, AI infrastructure, and engineering machinery [2] - The demand for AI-related infrastructure remains strong, with significant investments expected in the sector [13] - The engineering machinery sector is showing signs of recovery, with increasing sales across various equipment types [12][63] Company Summaries 1) Rili Technology - Rili Technology is a leading supplier of industrial X-ray intelligent detection equipment and core components, establishing significant technological barriers [3] - The company saw a nearly 100% year-on-year increase in new orders in the first half of the year, with a 44.01% increase in revenue and an 18.83% increase in net profit for the first three quarters [3][14] - The profit growth is expected to improve as the impact of new production base construction and other costs diminishes [3] 2) Konstar - Konstar focuses on the research and sales of digital testing instruments, facing challenges due to tariffs [4] - The company reported a significant recovery in Q3, with revenue, net profit, and net profit excluding non-recurring items increasing by 22.24%, 30.66%, and 36.2% respectively [4][15] - The resilience of international business under tariff pressures and strong domestic performance are noted as positive indicators for future growth [4] 3) Newray Co., Ltd. - Newray's main products include hard alloys and tools, with Q3 revenue, net profit, and net profit excluding non-recurring items growing by 38.02%, 75.40%, and 94.83% respectively [5][16] - The company has successfully passed on rising raw material costs to downstream customers, enhancing profitability [5] Industry Trends - In November, excavator sales reached 20,027 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, with domestic sales up 9.1% and exports up 18.8% [12][63] - The demand for engineering machinery is expanding beyond excavators, with significant growth in loader and crane sales [12][70] - The AI infrastructure sector is expected to benefit from substantial investments, with companies like NVIDIA planning to deliver AI chips to Chinese clients [13][58] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the rapidly developing humanoid robot sector, the ongoing AI infrastructure boom, and the improving performance of engineering machinery and tool sectors [14][58]

随着2025年接近尾声，AI科技行业正迎来前所未有的发展机遇。针对2026年的AI行业发展与投资机 会，国联民生证券研究所副总经理兼海外研究首席分析师孔蓉接受证券时报专访，深入分析了未来一年 的科技趋势及投资焦点。 孔蓉认为，AI并非如过去互联网般的"信息连接工具"，而是一场深刻的"生产力革命"。进入2026年，AI 将告别单纯的泡沫质疑，通过模型能力的渐进式提升与多模态技术的成熟，在广告、硬件、自动驾驶及 科学研究等严肃场景中实现规模化落地。 从工具到生产力提升的转变 针对市场普遍关注未来"AI是否还有超预期表现"的疑问，孔蓉指出，2026年模型的演进逻辑更像"小朋 友长大"的过程，模型能力的提升是连续且扎实的。 孔蓉指出，AI的核心不再是单纯的信息连接工具，而是作为生产力提升的关键工具，推动各行各业实 现更高效的生产。尽管近年来AI领域频繁出现泡沫的担忧，但2025年的AI技术应用开始逐步落地，特 别是在代码生成和多模态能力提升方面，展现出强大的潜力。这种变化标志着AI产业正在向更加务 实、渐进的方向发展。 "2026年AI行业将继续围绕模型能力的提升展开。未来的AI不仅能生成更加真实、连贯的内容，还将展 ...

随着2025年接近尾声，AI科技行业正迎来前所未有的发展机遇。针对2026年的AI行业发展与投资机 会，国联民生（601456）证券研究所副总经理兼海外研究首席分析师孔蓉接受证券时报专访，深入分析 了未来一年的科技趋势及投资焦点。 广告行业方面，孔蓉认为，随着多模态生成能力的提升，AI将在广告创意、素材生成、算法效率提升 等方面带来革命性变化，这将推动电商领域的业绩增长。 自动驾驶行业的成熟速度将在2026年加速。12月中旬，我国首批L3级自动驾驶车型产品获得准入许 可，这被视为我国L3级自动驾驶从测试阶段迈入商业化应用的关键一步。孔蓉特别提到，特斯拉已在 德州进行无人驾驶实验，并取得了显著进展。国内企业如华为和小鹏汽车也在快速推进智能驾驶技术， 预计2026年自动驾驶技术将迎来新的突破，市场需求将逐渐显现。 孔蓉认为，AI并非如过去互联网般的"信息连接工具"，而是一场深刻的"生产力革命"。进入2026年，AI 将告别单纯的泡沫质疑，通过模型能力的渐进式提升与多模态技术的成熟，在广告、硬件、自动驾驶及 科学研究等严肃场景中实现规模化落地。 从工具到生产力提升的转变 针对市场普遍关注未来"AI是否还有超预期表现 ...