Core Viewpoint - The easing of trade tensions has led to a market rebound, prompting Goldman Sachs to raise its target prices for Chinese stocks twice within a week, returning to levels predicted before April 2 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 14, the Chinese stock market has fully recovered the losses incurred since April 2, with the MSCI China, CSI 300, and Hang Seng Tech indices rising by 2-4% from their early April highs [1][4]. - The reduction of tariffs has contributed to this recovery, with a total of 91% of the tariffs being lifted and a suspension of 24% of retaliatory tariffs, exceeding market expectations [4]. Group 2: Goldman Sachs Adjustments - Goldman Sachs has maintained an overweight rating on Chinese stocks, adjusting the 12-month target prices for the MSCI China and CSI 300 indices to 84 and 4600 points, respectively, indicating potential upside of 11% and 17% [1][5]. - The firm has revised its GDP growth forecasts for both the U.S. and China, reflecting a more optimistic economic outlook [6]. Group 3: Sector Performance - The hardware technology, industrial, and consumer sectors have led the market rally, while healthcare, U.S. exporters, and government spending-related stocks have lagged [4]. - Goldman Sachs suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from consumption recovery and digital transformation, including quality regional banks and leading real estate companies [5].

Core Viewpoints - Recent progress in China-US economic talks may lead to an upward adjustment in China's GDP growth expectations for Q2 due to a rebound in exports and significant tariff reductions [5][3] - The US has agreed to reduce tariffs by 115 basis points within 90 days, which exceeds previous expectations, but this only affects 6.5% of US imports [7][3] Group 1: China Economic Insights - The reduction in tariffs and a potential agreement on the fentanyl issue may stimulate a wave of suppressed exports, positively impacting China's GDP growth in Q2 [5][6] - The possibility of adjusting the 20% tariffs imposed on China due to the fentanyl issue exists, while the remaining 10% tariffs may be retained long-term [5][6] Group 2: US Economic Insights - The GDP growth forecast for the US has been moderately adjusted upward, with Q4 GDP growth now expected to increase by 0.2 percentage points to 0.8% [7][3] - The cumulative tariff rate on China will decrease to 30%, while China's tariff rate on the US will drop to 10%, indicating ongoing targeted tariff measures in specific industries [7][3] - The slow progress of trade agreements between the US and other countries suggests that the 10% tariff may become a challenging threshold to overcome [7][3]

英国央行提高了对2025年的GDP增长预期至1%，高于之前的预测值0.75%。与此同时，2026年和2027年 的增长率预计分别为1.25%和1.5%。通胀率预计将在第三季度达到3.5%的峰值，低于先前预测的3.7%， 主要受益于能源价格下降。长期来看，到2027年初，通胀率预计将回归至目标水平2%。 此外，英国央行警告称全球贸易政策的不确定性仍然是影响英国经济的关键因素，尤其是美国关税政策 的变化可能会给英国带来额外的成本和经济活动的冲击。 就在同日，美国总统特朗普宣布美英之间达成一项新的贸易协议，这是自今年4月对英国商品加征新关 税以来首次与受影响国家签订的相关协议。特朗普宣称，该协议"全面且深入"，涵盖大量新增市场准入 机会，并强调英国将取消许多针对美国产品的非关税壁垒。 然而，英国政府对此表现得更为谨慎。唐宁街10号发言人表示，谈判正在加速进行，并承诺首相会适时 提供更新。发言人重申首相斯塔默始终将国家利益置于首位，并视美国为重要的经济和安全盟友。分析 人士认为，鉴于缺乏具体条款说明以及英方的审慎态度，外界对这份协议的法律约束力和执行前景持保 留意见。 新华财经声明：本文内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。 ...

西班牙经济部长：尽管全球贸易动荡，政府仍坚持今年GDP增长预期为2.6%。 ...

IMF世界经济展望报告：将拉丁美洲和加勒比地区2025年的GDP增长预期从1月份的2.5%下调至2.0%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent economic activity data in the US has shown signs of weakness, leading to pessimistic expectations for Q1 GDP growth, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicting a decline to -1.5% annualized growth [1][2] Group 1: Trade Deficit and Gold Imports - The significant increase in gold imports has been identified as a major factor contributing to the widening trade deficit, with January's goods trade deficit exceeding 6% of GDP [2] - Goldman Sachs estimates that gold imports in January amounted to approximately $25 billion, accounting for nearly the entire $31 billion increase in the trade deficit [2] - The surge in gold imports is primarily driven by market participants in Europe seeking to mitigate potential tariff risks, rather than reflecting immediate consumption needs [2][3] Group 2: GDP Growth Predictions - Goldman Sachs forecasts a Q1 2025 GDP growth rate of 1.6%, which, while lower than previous expectations, remains above the Atlanta Fed's prediction [3] - The firm maintains its Q4 2025 GDP growth forecast at 2.2%, slightly down from an initial expectation of 2.4% [3] Group 3: Consumer Spending and Unemployment Claims - Weak consumer spending in January is attributed to multiple factors, including cold weather, seasonal influences, and a normal correction following rapid consumption growth in the latter half of 2024 [6] - The rise in unemployment claims may be overstated due to seasonal volatility and difficulties in seasonal adjustment, with past spikes in claims often reverting quickly [6]