6月6日国内金价快报：国内品牌金店金价整体持稳，个别金店金价不断起伏中。今日的最高价金店为六福等金店，不涨不 跌，报价1020元/克。上海中国黄金价格不变，报价981元/克，仍是最低价金店。今日金店黄金价差39元/克，价差稍稍缩 小。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： 昨日现货黄金盘中一度突破3400美元大关，不过很快就出现急跌。中美双方同意继续落实日内瓦经贸会谈共识，尽快举行 新一轮会谈，市场避险情绪削弱。最低跌至3338.29美元/盎司。最终收报3352.63美元/盎司，跌幅0.59%。今日金价仍在震 荡，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3357.40美元/盎司，涨幅0.14%。 注意，今晚就将公布美国5月非农数据，市场预期新增12.5万个岗位，对比上月大幅减少。不过巴克莱的美国经济学家乔纳 森·米勒预测5月新增就业岗位将达到15万个。而非农数据强劲可能强化美元，限制金价涨幅。 此外，昨日有以色列官员透露，以色列已向白宫保证，暂不会对伊朗核设施发动攻击，除非美国总统特朗普发出与伊朗谈 判失败的信号。市场的避险情绪削弱，压制昨日金价下行。 | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2025年6月6日) | | | | -- ...

【白银期货行情表现】 【宏观消息】 特朗普与马斯克关系破裂，特斯拉市值迅速蒸发千亿美元。特斯拉CEO马斯克一再公开抨击特朗普政府 的大规模支出法案，美国总统特朗普直言马斯克"疯了"，他突然掉头攻击法案，是因为撤销拜登的电动 汽车税收抵免；没有马斯克支持，大选也会赢得宾州。马斯克则称，之前没给他看过法案；削减电动车 激励却不减油气补贴"非常不公平" ，即便如此也应"瘦而美"，从来没什么"大漂亮"法案，特朗普没有他 支持不会赢得大选。马斯克并称，特朗普的关税将导致下半年美国经济衰退。公开骂战后，马斯克又公 开表态，认为特朗普应该被弹劾。 【机构观点】 广发期货：在欧洲央行降息和财政政策刺激下 白银突破前高阻力创13年新高 在欧洲央行降息和财政政策刺激下，白银突破前高阻力创13年新高，后续在光伏"抢装"和提前备库等因 素推动下，有望持续走高。 美联储的利率政策和关税政策可能是短期扰动因素，预计今年的利率政策会更加谨慎，关税政策和地缘 政治冲突的演变主导着市场避险情绪变化。 根据美国最新数据，非农数据显示劳动力市场较为强劲，非农就业人口超过市场预期，失业率稳定在至 4.2%；4月PCE数据显示通胀数据放缓，核心PCE ...

Group 1 - The strong performance of silver is directly related to the complexities in the US-Japan trade negotiations, with internal disagreements among US officials causing market concerns about escalating trade tensions [3] - Technical analysis indicates that despite the RSI reaching an overbought zone, the bullish momentum remains intact, with a key resistance level at $36.10 that could lead to a target of $37.04 if maintained [4] - The mid-term outlook for silver remains supported by ongoing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside the uncertainty revealed in the US-Japan negotiations, enhancing silver's appeal as a crisis hedge [5] Group 2 - The COMEX silver futures non-commercial net long positions have increased for three consecutive weeks, indicating a strategic demand from institutional investors for precious metals [4] - There are potential risks in the $36-$37 range due to significant resistance levels established since 2013, which could trigger technical corrections [5] - Short-term investors are advised to hold long positions with a stop-loss at $35.50, targeting $36.80, while mid-term strategies should wait for a pullback after a breakout above $37 [5]

【交易策略】 此前特朗普再度提高关税，造成全球贸易格局以及经济增长的恶化风险增加，叠加俄乌局势进一步升 温，使得市场避险情绪加剧，贵金属由此大幅上涨。随着市场情绪的稳定，金银价格再度恢复震荡。短 期预计贵金属价格将在政策信号与宏观数据公布的影响下保持偏强。 周三的一项私营部门调查显示，日本服务业活动的增长放缓幅度低于 5 月份的预期。au Jibun Bank 日本 服务业采购经理人指数 （PMI） 的最终读数从 50.8 初值修正至 51.0。这低于上个月的最终数据 52.4， 尽管它表明服务活动连续第二次扩张。 该数据使人们对日本央行 在下半年再次加息充满希望，并在亚洲时段小幅提振日元。与此同时，日本 央行行长植田一男周二听起来很谨慎，并在议会中表示，海外贸易政策、经济和价格形势的不确定性仍 然极高。 植田补充说，没有预设的加息计划，除非经济足够强劲，否则他不会推动提高利率。此外，有报道称， 如果主要反对党提交不信任动议，日本首相石破茂可能会解散国会以提前举行大选，这可能会限制日元 的任何进一步上涨。 【白银期货最新行情】 6月4日 收盘价（元/千克） 当日涨跌幅 成交量（手） 持仓量（手） 沪银主力 8 ...

昨日现货黄金受美元走强以及美债收益率升高的影响而走跌，盘中最低跌至了3332.99美元/盎司，后出现小幅回升，收报 3352.70美元/盎司，跌幅0.84%。今日金价震荡，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3352.04美元/盎司，跌幅0.02%。 昨日美元走强主要是因晚间公布的4月JOLTs职位空缺数据超预期增长，市场认为美国经济仍保持良好态势，提振美元。 Brown Brothers Harriman高级策略师Elias Haddad称，"4月JOLTS数据仍然反映劳动力市场稳健，美元技术面呈现超卖状态， 短线可能会获得一些支撑。" 6月4日国内金价快报：国内品牌金店金价整体持稳，个别金店有所变化。今日的最高价金店是六福黄金等金店，不涨不 跌，报价1020元/克。上海中国黄金价格上涨25元/克，报价981元/克，仍是最低价金店。今日金店黄金价差39元/克，价差看 着小了很多，但还是很大。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2025年6月4日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [2] Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: The ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.23% to 65.98 cents per pound, and CF509 dropped 0.08% to 13,260 yuan per ton. The main - contract positions decreased by 6,780 to 539,100 hands. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 14,445 yuan per ton, down 4 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 14,553 yuan per ton, down 16 yuan. Internationally, macro - factors, Trump's tariff policy, and weak U.S. economic data limit the upside of U.S. cotton. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton lacks continuous upward drive but also has limited negative factors. With weak demand and expected high - yield new cotton, cotton prices face pressure, but the probability of breaking previous lows is very low. It is expected to trade in a slightly weak range in the short term. Monitor macro and weather conditions [2] - **Sugar**: The Indian National Cooperative Sugar Factories Federation estimates the ending sugar inventory in the 2024/25 season to be about 4.865 million metric tons and the production in the 2025/26 season to reach 35 million tons. The spot prices of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar groups decreased. The expectation of increased supply in India suppresses the futures price, which hit a 4 - and - a - half - year low. With the opening of the import sugar profit window due to the fall in raw sugar, domestic sugar prices are under pressure. A bearish view is maintained. Pay attention to May's production - sales data and future import data [2] Group 3: Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 7 - 9 spread was - 220, up 5; the main - contract basis was 1,293, down 1. The Xinjiang spot price was 14,445 yuan per ton, down 4 yuan, and the national spot price was 14,553 yuan per ton, down 16 yuan [3] - **Sugar**: The 7 - 9 spread was 122, up 7; the main - contract basis was 413, up 16. The Nanning spot price was 6,090 yuan per ton, down 25 yuan, and the Liuzhou spot price was 6,145 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan [3] Group 4: Market Information - **Cotton**: On June 3, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 11,062, down 40 from the previous day, with 374 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: Xinjiang 14,445 yuan/ton, Henan 14,568 yuan/ton, Shandong 14,570 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang 14,785 yuan/ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 55.1, down 0.1; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 24.7, up 0.7; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 50.1, unchanged; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 31.2, up 0.2 [4] - **Sugar**: On June 3, the Nanning sugar spot price was 6,090 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan, and the Liuzhou price was 6,145 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 30,731, down 289 from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts [4][5] Group 5: Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, spread, warehouse receipts, and price index of each commodity, with data from 2021 - 2025 [7][14] Group 6: Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry, with multiple awards [19] - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on urea, soda ash, and glass futures, and has won many honors [20] - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, conducts fundamental research on cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys, and won the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's textile product senior analyst title in 2024 [21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Weakening fundamentals, with potential for price decline. Attention should be paid to the continued decline of hot metal and the market's reaction to tariffs and production cuts [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Overall, they follow the trend of finished products, with the far - month 09 contract of coking coal continuing to weaken and coke facing profit contraction [2]. - Rebar: Price is likely to fall rather than rise, facing pressure from high production and weak demand in the off - season, as well as the impact of increased tariffs [2]. - Glass: Fundamentals lack upward momentum, with demand difficult to recover significantly, and it is in a weak operation [2]. - Stock index futures/options: It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices, as the market's risk - aversion sentiment has eased [4]. - Treasury bonds: It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly, with a narrow - range rebound in the market [4]. - Gold and silver: They are expected to be in a relatively strong and volatile state, with various factors such as trade policies and demand affecting their prices [4]. - Pulp: Expected to be in a weak and volatile state, affected by factors such as cost and demand [6]. - Logs: Expected to be in a volatile state, with improved fundamentals and relatively stable prices [6]. - Oils and fats: Expected to be volatile, affected by policies, production, and consumption seasons [6]. - Meal: Expected to be in a weak and volatile state, affected by trade and supply - demand factors [6]. - Soybean No. 2: Expected to be in a weak and volatile state, affected by trade disputes and supply [6]. - Soybean No. 1: Expected to be in a slightly bearish and volatile state [6]. - Live pigs: Futures prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern, affected by supply and market expectations [8]. - Rubber: Expected to be in a range - bound and volatile state in the short term, affected by supply, demand, and policies [8]. - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: All in a wait - and - see state, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost [9]. Core Viewpoints - The global economic situation is complex, with Trump's tariff policy intensifying trade tensions and affecting various industries. The manufacturing PMI has declined, and the economic data shows a certain degree of weakness. However, the logistics demand continues to recover [2][4]. - In the commodity market, different products have different supply - demand situations. Some are affected by production, consumption seasons, and policies, while others are affected by cost and inventory factors. The market sentiment is also affected by trade policies and geopolitical risks [2][4][6][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Global shipments have rebounded, but demand has weakened, with iron - water production declining for three consecutive weeks. Port inventories are still decreasing, but attention should be paid to the continuous decline of iron - water. Trump's tariff increase has a negative impact on the market [2]. - Coking coal and coke: There are rumors of a 20% resource tax on coal exports from Mongolia. Coking coal production is at a high level, and downstream replenishment is weak. Coke supply is in an oversupply situation, and the overall trend follows that of finished products [2]. - Rebar: Trump's tariff increase has weakened market sentiment. Supply is at a high level, while demand is poor, with a significant decline in real - estate investment and a seasonal decline in manufacturing demand [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Glass: The fundamentals are not good, with the industry's start - up rate and production increasing, but demand difficult to recover significantly due to the real - estate adjustment [2]. Financial Futures - Stock index futures/options: The performance of major stock indices has been positive, with some sectors having capital inflows and outflows. The manufacturing PMI has declined, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds has increased slightly, and the market has a narrow - range rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver: They are affected by multiple factors such as currency, finance, and risk - aversion. The original upward - driving logic has not completely reversed, and they are expected to be in a relatively strong and volatile state [4]. Forestry Products - Pulp: The cost support has weakened, and demand has entered the off - season, so it is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [6]. - Logs: The fundamentals have improved, with relatively stable prices, and it is expected to be in a volatile state [6]. Oils and Fats and Meals - Oils and fats: Supply is abundant, and it is in the traditional consumption off - season. They are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as weather and production - sales [6]. - Meal: Affected by trade and supply - demand factors, it is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [6]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The market price has fluctuated, with supply and demand showing different trends. Futures prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern [8]. - Rubber: Supply is in a pattern of short - term tightness and long - term looseness, and demand has limited improvement. It is expected to be in a range - bound and volatile state in the short term [8]. Chemical Products - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: All in a wait - and - see state, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost [9].

Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic landscape last week lacked significant data guidance, with trade tensions once again dominating the market, leading to a somewhat chaotic situation [1][3] - COMEX gold and silver prices experienced declines of 2.17% and 1.68% respectively, while COMEX copper saw a decrease of 3.35% [2][4] Group 1: Precious Metals Market - COMEX gold and silver fluctuated within the range of $3269 to $3385 per ounce and $32.8 to $33.8 per ounce respectively, with gold prices down by 1.8% and silver by 1.7% [21][22] - The market's risk appetite fluctuated due to the back-and-forth nature of tariff expectations, with a rebound in precious metal prices following Trump's threats to impose 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum [4][21] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing uncertainties abroad and the supportive credit logic of the dollar [52] Group 2: Base Metals Market - COMEX copper prices showed a strong upward trend, primarily driven by concerns over potential tariffs on copper [5][6] - The copper concentrate TC weekly index was reported at -$43.80 per dry ton, indicating a stable market despite limited trading activity [8] - Domestic electrolytic copper inventories decreased to 139,300 tons, reflecting a reduction in market arrivals and a general lack of significant supply increases [14] Group 3: Inventory and Positioning - COMEX gold inventory increased by approximately 0.1 million ounces to 38.79 million ounces, while COMEX silver inventory decreased by about 690,000 ounces [36] - SPDR gold ETF holdings rose by 7.7 tons to 930 tons, indicating a shift in market positioning [41] - Non-commercial long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 3,975 contracts, while short positions fell by 14,178 contracts, suggesting a cautious market sentiment [41][42]

| 铁矿：本期全球铁矿石发运总量环比回落，但主流矿山发运量保持平稳回 | 升态势，需求端铁水产量连续三周下行，基本面边际走弱。钢材现实需求 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 继续走弱，五大钢材整体面临供增需减格局，成材下跌使得对原料采购刚 | 铁矿石 | 偏空 | 需减少。铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库，说明当前 | 240 | 的高铁水仍旧能驱动港 | | | | | | | | | 口去库，关注后续铁水持续回落状况。特朗普再次提高钢铁关税至 | 50%， | 资金和情绪端持续表现出偏空，关注市场对关税的消化反应以及减产的推 | | | | | | | | | | | | 进程度，本轮贸易冲突缓和带来的反弹行情里已经介入空单的投资者，则 | 继续持有。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 煤焦：焦煤产量高位，下游补库动力不足，523 | 家样本矿山原煤库存刷出 | 历年新高，随着铁水产量下滑以及焦煤供应的持续增加，远月 | ...

摘要周五（5月30日）国际黄金日内维持下跌走势，目前市场焦点还集中在周五将公布的美国个人消费 支出(PCE)物价指数数据上。市场将仔细分析该数据，以寻找有关美国未来货币政策的信号。 美联储利率政策与贸易不确定性成为市场焦点。周四，美国联邦上诉法院暂停贸易法院的裁定，临时恢 复前总统特朗普实施的关税措施。据市场调查显示，此举为贸易前景再添变数，增强市场避险情绪，有 助于金价保持韧性。 此外，美联储多位官员近期表示，如果经济数据和通胀进一步回落，今年进行2次降息是合理的预期。 尽管FOMC会议纪要显示目前仍保持观望态度，但市场仍倾向于年内降息。这种利率路径的不确定性， 成为黄金的中长期支撑因素之一。 【黄金技术分析】 今日周五，金价又再度跌破3300点，内盘TD价格虽保持在765上方，但涨势力度不强，白盘时段能否延 续昨日的上涨格局，不好肯定，因此还需观察等待。短期内若没有风险事件支撑，金价上涨较难持续， 所以还是不能再高位追进，或许会跌破位昨日低点，也或许不会，总之能够再回撤拉低价格，就是入场 的最佳时机，因为下一阶段的上涨快启动了。 晚间交易提醒： 20:00 德国5月CPI月率初值 周五（5月30日）国际黄 ...