特朗普后来宣布对大多数国家的新关税暂停90天，但经济增长担忧仍挥之不去。 经济敏感性 Money Metals Exchange的总裁兼首席执行官斯特凡・格里森（Stefan Gleason）表示，值得注意的是， 白银具有"经济敏感性"。 他说，对关税带来的经济后果以及国际贸易下滑的担忧，给白银价格带来了压力。鉴于白银在工业领域 的大量应用，包括太阳能和电子应用等，经济放缓成为了白银价格的"不利因素"。 美国总统特朗普的关税政策不仅震动了全球股市，也动摇了经济前景，还破坏了白银跑赢黄金的机会。 不过，白银可能很快会迎来另一个机会。 就年初截至上月底的涨幅而言，黄金和白银的表现几乎不相上下——当时两者年内涨幅均超过14%。然 而，根据道琼斯市场数据（Dow Jones Market Data）对FactSet数据的分析，现在白银价格较一个月前下 跌了5.4%，而黄金价格已攀升至历史新高，较一个月前上涨了近11%。 BullionVault的研究主管阿德里安・阿什（Adrian Ash）表示："对于贵金属爱好者来说，黄金和白银走 势的分化既反映了人们对经济衰退担忧的程度，也提供了一个机会。" 这是因为目前白银价格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing significant volatility due to potential import tariffs announced by U.S. President Trump, leading to a surge in copper prices and increased activity in the non-ferrous metal sector [9][11]. Non-Ferrous Metal Sector Activity - The non-ferrous metal sector has shown strong performance, with the sector index rising for three consecutive trading days. Notably, Northern Copper Industry Co., Ltd. (stock code: 000737) reached a limit-up price, achieving a three-day gain of two limit-ups [3][5]. - Other companies in the non-ferrous metal sector, such as Fuda Alloy Materials Co., Ltd. (stock code: 603045), Anhui Zhongyuan New Materials Co., Ltd. (stock code: 603527), and Xinjiang Alloy Investment Co., Ltd. (stock code: 000633), also experienced limit-up trading [5][7]. Copper Price Dynamics - COMEX copper prices reached a historical high of $5.3740 per pound, surpassing the previous record of $5.199 per pound set on May 20 of the previous year, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 30% [9][11]. - Market analysts suggest that while short-term copper prices are influenced by tariff expectations, the medium-term outlook will depend on supply and demand dynamics. Currently, the international copper market is characterized by an oversupply situation, with no significant increase in demand from China [11][12]. Future Outlook - Analysts from CITIC Futures anticipate that copper supply constraints will persist, with marginal demand recovery providing support for copper prices. They expect copper prices to exhibit a strong oscillating trend in the medium to long term [11][12]. - The long-term demand for copper is projected to be driven by growth in the power and electric vehicle sectors, indicating that while significant price increases may be limited, copper prices are likely to remain at elevated levels [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - Silver may soon become the focus of investors as it is expected to experience a strong price surge, potentially reaching historical highs, despite currently lagging behind gold in performance [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Year-to-date, silver prices have increased by 14.5%, slightly above gold's 14.4% rise, indicating a close correlation between the two metals [2]. - The gold-silver ratio remains high, with one ounce of gold exchanging for over 90 ounces of silver, suggesting that silver is undervalued relative to gold [2]. - The Silver Institute predicts a significant supply shortage in the global silver market by 2025, with demand expected to stabilize at 1.2 billion ounces, exceeding supply [3]. Group 2: Investment Demand - Strong investment demand, coupled with historical industrial demand for silver, is expected to create upward price momentum [3]. - The shift from net withdrawals to buying in silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs) indicates a resurgence in silver investment [3]. - Concerns over tariffs and their impact on the global economy may dampen enthusiasm for industrial metals, but the actual industrial demand for silver is expected to remain robust [4][5]. Group 3: Price Projections - Analysts suggest that silver prices could rise to $40 per ounce in the coming months, with potential to exceed $50 per ounce if physical supply tightens significantly [5][6]. - There is a possibility of a surge in physical demand leading to prices reaching between $75 and $100 per ounce, driven by panic buying [6]. - The more likely scenario is that silver prices will reach between $40 and $50 per ounce by the end of the year [6].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is expected to weaken starting in 2025, with the S&P 500 index down 1.7% and the Nasdaq down 5.6% year-to-date. Concurrently, funds are taking profits in gold, which has seen a cooling off after a strong performance. [2][18] Group 1: Market Trends - The CFTC data indicates that gold long positions have decreased by 15% from their peak five weeks ago, while short positions have surged by 520% from their lowest point seven weeks ago. [2][18] - The Euro gold price momentum has weakened, with European funds shifting investments from gold to military stocks due to increased military spending needs. [2][18] - Unlike previous trends, the decline in U.S. stocks has not negatively impacted global markets, with European and Hong Kong stocks remaining strong. [2][18] Group 2: Commodity Fund Positions - As of March 4, 2023, the net long position in COMEX gold has dropped to 568 tons, a decrease of 6.1% from the previous week, marking the lowest level in nine weeks. [3][5] - The net long position in COMEX silver has increased to 5,319 tons, with a 3.7% rise from the previous week, continuing a streak of 53 weeks in net long territory. [3][5] - The net long position in Nymex platinum has fallen to 4 tons, the lowest in five weeks, while the net short position in Nymex palladium remains at 35 tons, indicating a prolonged bearish sentiment. [3][6] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Dollar Index has decreased by 5.6% from its peak of 109.96 on January 13 to 103.838 at the time of writing. [2][19] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at their current levels during the March meeting, with a 97% probability of no change. [14] - There is speculation that the first interest rate cut may occur between May and July 2025, depending on economic conditions. [14][15] Group 4: Future Outlook - The potential for a significant downturn in the U.S. stock market in 2025 is highlighted, with expectations of reduced government spending and geopolitical risks. [22] - The article suggests that if the U.S. begins to cut interest rates while inflation pressures resurface, it could create a challenging environment for the Federal Reserve. [21][22] - The overall sentiment indicates that 2024 may be the last good year for copper, with expectations of a significant decline thereafter unless substantial infrastructure investments occur. [10][22]