在地缘政治领域，尽管相关冲突地区各方已开启谈判进程，但由于各方在核心利益诉求和谈判立场上存在显著分歧，谈判前景尚不明朗。不过，谈判的启动 本身释放出通过对话解决争端的积极信号，一定程度上缓解了地缘政治紧张局势，这也对黄金的避险需求产生了抑制作用。 尽管消息面呈现出复杂多变的态势，但截至本交易周尾，黄金收盘价仍维持在3200美元/盎司上方。基于此部分市场参与者依然对黄金价格抱有乐观预期， 认为金价有望向3500美元/盎司靠拢，甚至突破这一关键价位。然而，正如秦氏金升此前分析所述，黄金价格前期的冲高主要是受到多重利好消息刺激，引 发市场集中性买盘推动。如今，随着避险情绪逐步退潮，金价出现回调属于市场的正常价值回归过程。 一、消息面分析 从宏观经济消息面维度来看，近期国际贸易局势的缓和显著削弱了黄金作为避险资产的属性。贸易双方通过积极磋商达成阶段性共识，使得全球投资者风险 偏好有所回升，黄金避险买盘随之减少。与此同时，美联储官员多次强调在货币政策调整上保持谨慎态度，明确表示短期内不急于降息，这些因素共同对黄 金价格形成了有力压制。 在日线级别上，黄金价格自3500美元/盎司高点开启的ABC三浪下跌趋势特征十分明显。 ...

总体而言，黄金市场的多空博弈本质是短期交易逻辑与长期价值逻辑的角力。当前回调更多是技术性修正而非趋势逆转，投资者需区分"价格波动"与"价值 重估"的差异，在美元霸权松动、全球政经格局重构的背景下，重视黄金在资产组合中对冲通胀与风险的价值。 近期黄金价格经历了显著的调整，中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展是重要原因之一。会谈达成大幅削减加征关税等共识，缓解了市场对全球经济衰退的担 忧，风险资产吸引力回升，黄金避险需求骤降，资金从黄金市场流向股市等风险资产。同时，美联储5月议息会议维持利率不变，强调通胀粘性及经济韧 性，市场对年内降息预期下调，美元指数一度逼近100关口，对黄金形成压制。此外，前期金价累计涨幅大，技术指标进入超买区域，存在获利盘回吐需 求，5月12日金价单日跌幅达2.73%，触发多头平仓潮。 不过，黄金价格仍有长期支撑逻辑。首先，全球央行购金趋势持续，2025年一季度全球央行黄金储备增加244吨，连续第16年净购金，中国、印度等新兴市 场央行购金行为显著，反映出美元信用体系面临挑战，黄金货币属性被重新定价。其次，尽管短期地缘风险缓和，但美国债务上限危机、全球通胀反复、股 市波动加剧等隐患仍在，黄金作为 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant decline in gold prices, with spot gold dropping below $3200 and reaching a low of $3137.33 per ounce, marking a 9% decrease from last month's peak of $3500 [1][2] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also fallen below 1000 yuan per gram, with major brands like Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Fook reporting price reductions [2] - The A-share precious metals sector has shown a weak performance, with most gold concept stocks declining, while only a few managed to gain [3] Group 2 - Despite the recent price drop, institutions believe that the short-term adjustment will not alter the long-term upward trend of gold prices, with significant increases in global gold investment demand projected for the coming years [4] - Reports indicate that global gold investment demand surged by 170% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with China's demand for gold bars and coins also showing substantial growth [4] - Analysts suggest that while short-term fluctuations may continue, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and central bank purchases [5]

5月15日国内金价快报：全国品牌金店金价进入高位震荡期，头部品牌单日普跌16元/克。今日最高价金店依旧是六福黄金那 几家，下跌16元/克，报价976元/克。上海中国黄金不涨不跌，报价956元/克，暂为最低价金店。今日金店黄金价差20元/ 克，价差有所缩小。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2025年5月15日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 972 | 元/克 | 15 | 跌 | | 六福黄金价格 | 976 | 元/克 | 16 | 版 | | 周大福黄金价格 | 976 | 元/克 | 16 | 品 | | 周六福黄金价格 | 976 | 元/克 | 16 | 品 | | 金至尊黄金价格 | 976 | 元/克 | 16 | 跌 | | 老凤祥黄金价格 | 974 | 元/克 | 16 | 脱 | | 潮宏基黄金价格 | 976 | 元/克 | 16 | 跌 | | 周生生黄金价格 | 975 | 元/克 | 17 | 跌 | | 菜 ...

国内品牌金饰价格集体回落至千元下方，周大福、六福珠宝、周生生等足金饰品跌至975元/克，较前一日价格下跌16元/克。 | 品牌 | 产品 | 今日价格 | 较昨日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 水贝 | 黄金价格 | 752 | 实时 | | 周大福 | 黄金价格 | 976 | 跌16 | | 六福珠宝 | 黄金价格 | 976 | 跌16 | | 周生生 | 黄金价格 | 975 | 跌17 | | 我是真 | 黄金价格 | 976 | 跌16 | | 潮宏基 | 黄金价格 | 976 | 跌16 | | 谢瑞麟 | 黄金价格 | 976 | 跌16 | | 老凤祥 | 黄金价格 | 974 | 跌16 | | 老庙黄金 | 黄金价格 | 972 | 跌15 | | 菜百首饰 | 黄金价格 | 965 | 跌15 | | 周六福 | 黄金价格 | 976 | 跌16 | | 周大生 | 黄金价格 | 976 | 跌16 | | 中国黄金 | 黄金价格 | 956 | 持写的程に | 5月15日，截止发稿现货黄金跌破3150美元/盎司，续创4月10日以来新低，近7天个交易日累计 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has experienced a downward trend, with spot gold prices dropping below $3180 per ounce, marking a new low since April 15 [1][3]. Price Movements - On May 14, spot gold prices fell to $3176.547, down $73.553 or 2.26% from the previous close of $3250.100 [2]. - The highest price recorded on May 14 was $3257.080, while the lowest was $3175.135 [2]. Domestic Gold Prices - As of May 14, several domestic gold retailers have adjusted their prices for gold jewelry, with prices falling below 1000 yuan per gram. For instance, Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry was priced at 992 yuan per gram, up 1 yuan from the previous day, while Lao Feng Xiang's price dropped by 5 yuan to 990 yuan per gram [3]. - Compared to May 11, Chow Sang Sang's price has decreased by 29 yuan per gram, and Chow Tai Fook's price has dropped by 30 yuan per gram [3]. Market Outlook - According to Wang Youxin from the Bank of China Research Institute, short-term gold prices may continue to fluctuate due to high market risk appetite and ongoing adjustments in trade conditions. However, there may be resistance and support levels that could lead to price volatility [4]. - In the medium to long term, there is potential for gold prices to rebound as the safe-haven and anti-inflation attributes of gold become more prominent, especially as major central banks remain in a loose monetary policy cycle [4].

Group 1 - The new tariff rates between China and the U.S. have been implemented, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite and a decrease in safe-haven sentiment, which has driven gold prices to adjust downward, with COMEX gold futures falling to a one-month low of $3180.70 per ounce, down 2.07% [1] - The gold ETF Huaxia (518850) has decreased by 0.73%, with a maximum drawdown of over 8% in the last seven trading days, while the gold stock ETF (159562) has dropped by 0.4% [1] - Starting from May 15, 2025, the management fee for the gold stock ETF (159562) will be reduced from 0.50% to 0.15%, and the custody fee will be lowered from 0.10% to 0.05%, making it the lowest fee level in the market, which will help investors to lower their costs in gold stock investments [1] Group 2 - Short-term gold prices are expected to continue a volatile adjustment pattern due to sustained market risk appetite and potential resistance and support levels during the price decline, leading to market fluctuations [2] - In the medium to long term, gold prices are anticipated to have room for recovery as the benefits of trade easing are gradually digested, highlighting gold's safe-haven and anti-inflation properties [2] - Despite a potential slowdown in the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, major global central banks remain in a loose monetary cycle, which will lower real interest rates and enhance the holding value of gold, supported by central banks' continued accumulation of gold to optimize foreign exchange reserves [2]

5月14日国内金价快报：国内各大金店金价整体变化不大，回收价格微涨。今日最高价金店依旧是六福黄金那几家，不涨不 跌，标价992元/克。上海中国黄金下跌13元/克，报价956元/克，再次成为最低价金店。今日金店黄金价差36元/克，价差继 续扩大。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： 昨日现货黄金盘中反复震荡，最高涨至3265.03美元/盎司，最低也跌至3215.79美元/盎司。最终收报3249.52美元/盎司，涨幅 0.44%。今日金价再次出现下跌，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3232.71美元/盎司，跌幅0.52%。 昨日金价反弹主要还是晚间公布的美国4月CPI数据低于预期，市场普遍预期美联储可能在9月恢复降息，美元走弱，金价受 推上行。外加昨日金价跌到最低位后，出现的逢低买盘支撑。 目前据CME"美联储观察"最新数据显示， 美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为91.8%，9月维持利率不变的概率为25.3%。 另据外媒消息，昨日以色列军方对哈马斯最高领导人穆罕默德·辛瓦尔发动了空袭，目前暂未证实哈马斯领导人是否死亡。 中东局势后续或又有加剧可能。而明日在土耳其还将迎来俄乌的又一次停火谈判，有需要的投资者可以关注下。 此外 ...

Investment Rating - The report has downgraded the 0-3 month target price for gold to $3,150/oz from the previous target of $3,500/oz, expecting gold prices to consolidate in the range of $3,000-3,300/oz over the coming months [1][11]. Core Insights - Gold prices reached record highs in late April, driven by strong demand, particularly from ETFs in both China and other markets, with a significant increase in gold investment demand estimated at approximately $400 billion annually [5][7][30]. - The report identifies three key drivers of gold demand: deterioration in global growth prospects due to tariff shocks, diversification of foreign reserves towards gold, and rising concerns over currency debasement in the US and China [6][25]. - The report anticipates a physical market deficit for gold, with investment demand expected to exceed 100% of mine supply during 2Q'25, which historically correlates with price increases [35][77]. Summary by Sections Gold Prices and Market Dynamics - Gold prices are expected to consolidate after a significant rally, with the report noting that the recent price surge was largely influenced by tariff-related concerns [11][41]. - The report highlights that gold's share in global central bank reserves has increased significantly, which may limit future demand for gold as central banks approach their target allocations [59][63]. Demand Analysis - The report indicates that gold jewelry demand has weakened, with a 19% decline in volume terms in 1Q'25 compared to the previous year, which may further impact gold prices [42][47]. - Central bank demand has been robust, particularly from emerging markets, contributing to the overall bullish sentiment for gold [60][77]. Investment Demand and Price Correlation - The relationship between gold prices and investment demand has been strong, with the report stating that for every 10% increase in net investment demand as a share of mine supply, gold prices rise by approximately $170/oz [84][88]. - The report emphasizes that the current high levels of gold prices are creating a unique opportunity for gold producers, as forward prices are significantly higher than spot prices, allowing for potential high margins [65][73].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April, highlighting the potential market reactions and the implications of recent U.S.-China trade negotiations on inflation trends [3][4]. CPI Predictions - Wall Street expects the overall CPI month-on-month to record 0.3%, up from -0.1% last month, and the year-on-year CPI to remain steady at 2.4% [4]. - Core CPI month-on-month is predicted to be 0.3%, an increase from 0.1% in March, with a wide forecast range from 0.0% to 0.6% [4]. Trade Impact on Inflation - Economists believe the upcoming CPI report will reflect the impact of recent tariff measures, although the actual effect may be limited due to prior imports [4][5]. - The temporary tariff reduction agreement between the U.S. and China may lead to inventory replenishment by retailers, potentially causing short-term price increases [5]. Sector-Specific Insights - Economists are closely monitoring service categories that reflect discretionary spending, with travel-related prices like airfare and car rentals showing a downward trend [6]. - The housing category, which has the largest weight in CPI, is expected to slow down after a strong increase in March [6]. Price Trends - Goldman Sachs predicts a 0.31% month-on-month increase in overall CPI, driven by rising food and energy prices [6]. - The report anticipates a 0.5% decrease in used car prices, while new car prices are expected to rise by 0.1% due to reduced promotional activities [7]. Insurance Costs - Auto insurance prices are projected to rise by 0.7% month-on-month, reflecting increased costs for insurers due to higher vehicle prices and repair costs [7]. Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs suggests that unless retailers begin to liquidate previously accumulated inventories, tariffs will continue to hinder inflation from falling to the 2% target [8]. - The bank forecasts core CPI month-on-month to be around 0.35% in the coming months, with a potential decline in trend inflation due to reduced contributions from sectors like automotive and housing [8].