据中国新闻网报道，近日，美国总统特朗普在"空军一号"专机上对记者表示，除非中国做出实质性让步，否则不会取消 对华加征的关税。中国驻美国使馆发言人近日强调，中美双方并没有就关税问题进行磋商或谈判，更谈不上达成协议。 如果美方真的想通过对话谈判解决问题，就应该纠正错误，停止威胁讹诈，彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施。一边说要 同中方达成协议，一边不断搞极限施压，这不是同中方打交道的正确方式，也是行不通的。 自从特朗普政府打响关税战之后，中方首当其冲，与美方展开了激烈的博弈，中方的反制举措犹如一枚又一枚飞镖，精 准扎在了美国的七寸上。特朗普政府原本想通过利用威慑手段逼迫中方妥协，从而实现"美国优先"，然而事与愿违，美 方的如意算盘落空，不仅没有等到中方的电话，还将中美两国的关系搞得更加紧张了。 特朗普（资料图） 数据显示，过去一段时间，美国从中国进口下降了64%，对中国出口减少了36%，这些数字，表面上看是"脱钩"，实际上 是"内伤"——中国减少对美依赖，还能找替代市场，美国却很难一下找到替代中国的供应链。在此背景下，美国一些零 售巨头，如沃尔玛、塔吉特等，已开始向政府施压，要求重新考虑高关税政策。他们面临的现实是：从 ...

一、中美贸易战认怂了！特朗普又给自己上梯子了，承认对华关税过高，听说美国那边要大幅降低关税，美国财政部长都说了，关税战很快就要降温了。特 朗普也跟着表态，不再逼着美联储主席鲍威尔降息了。美国这波"认怂"操作，让A股市场一下子有了起色，开始往上冲。 特朗普这波态度大转弯，背后到底藏着啥心思呢？他居然承认美国对中国进口商品的关税收得太高了，还打算大幅削减。这事儿可太让人意外了！就在当地 时间4月22日，特朗普公开这么一说，大家瞬间就炸开了锅，都在琢磨美国到底在打什么算盘？ 二、资金聚集在少数优质个股中，将是以后的常态。 整体趋势是在往好的方向走，财报都出来了，小盘股指数也开始明显上涨，北证、中证2000、创业小盘、微盘股都表现得很强势。 这意味着接下来强势指数继续往上冲的概率很大。别忘了，还有很多指数还没补缺呢。消费医药股炒作了一波之后，科技股的筹码拥挤度也缓解了不少，里 面的套牢盘也轻松多了。 三、不用猜了，权重回调，小票反弹。 市场期待收官日能来个大力出奇迹的中阳线的，而大资金还是坚持自己的原则四平八稳，而沪指最后也是收个小绿。虽然指数不咋地，可依然还是普涨的， 股民依然是能回血的。 而且还是近百股涨停，这活 ...

智通财经APP获悉，Facebook母公司Meta Platforms(META.US)将于北京时间周四晨间公布最新季度业 绩，但要让挑剔的投资者满意，该公司业绩面临较高的门槛。华尔街预计，Meta本季度营收将达到 413.8亿美元，较上年同期增长14%。GAAP每股收益预计为5.27美元，比去年高出12%。 彭博分析师Mandeep Singh在4月14日的一份报告中写道："Meta的广告定价增长可能面临逆风，因为在 中美贸易战愈演愈烈之际，Temu和Shein等大型中国广告商可能会退出。" 不过，分析师目前预计这不会对第一季度造成太大影响，他们认为谷歌的业绩就是证据。以Justin Post 为首的美国银行分析师在4月25日的一份报告中写道，YouTube的收入在这一时期保持一致，这对Meta 的广告收入来说是一个"略微积极的解读"。 在今年重创该行业的市场抛售中，该公司股价跌幅是所有大型科技公司中最小的。与此同时，在特朗普 关税将如何影响数字广告业务存在高度不确定性之际，Alphabet(GOOGL.US)上周好于预期的业绩提高 了人们对数字广告生态系统的预期。但Snap(SNAP.US)周二公布的业绩 ...

Group 1 - The Indian government has imposed a temporary 12% tariff on 22 categories of steel products imported from China, aligning with the U.S. initiative for a "non-Chinese supply chain" amid the U.S.-China trade war [1][3] - India's steel imports from China are significant, with 1.87 million tons expected in 2024 and 2025, accounting for 28% of total imports, while South Korea holds the largest share at 31% [1] - The imposition of tariffs is seen as a move to protect local industries, but it has raised concerns about the impact on downstream industries in India, such as Tata Motors, which relies heavily on Chinese steel [5][7] Group 2 - Following India's tariff announcement, U.S. President Trump indicated a potential reduction in tariffs on China, causing fluctuations in global stock markets, including a 2.66% rise in the Dow Jones index [3] - The Indian government's strategy to balance relations between the U.S. and China has been criticized as shortsighted, with the "Make in India 2.0" initiative facing challenges, as manufacturing's contribution to GDP is only 13%, far below the targeted 25% [7][9] - The reliance on Chinese components is evident, with 92% of smartphone displays and 78% of batteries used in Indian-assembled devices sourced from China, highlighting vulnerabilities in India's "assembly economy" [7]

Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.17 billion CNY, with a net profit of 111 million CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.33% and 50.11% respectively [2] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 257 million CNY and a net profit of 28.47 million CNY, indicating stable overall operations [2] Group 2: Business Segments - The permanent magnet business is the company's pillar industry and main profit source, with production capacity expected to reach 50,000 tons this year [2] - The company has increased investment in soft magnetic business, with expectations of improved shipment volumes this year [3] Group 3: Market Strategy and Risks - Direct exports to the U.S. account for less than 3% of the company's total, minimizing the impact of U.S. tariffs on overall export scale and profit levels [3] - The company maintains a diversified market strategy, actively exploring global markets to mitigate trade risks [3] Group 4: Production Capacity and Expansion - The company aims to achieve a long-term target of 60,000 tons of permanent magnet ferrite capacity, with cautious capacity deployment based on market conditions [3] - The Vietnam factory's permanent magnet capacity has been expanded to 10,000 tons/year, while the Thai soft magnetic factory is planned to have a capacity of 8,000 tons [4] Group 5: Product Development and Innovation - The company is focusing on chip inductors and automotive inductors, responding to the growing demand in AI computing and automotive electronics [4] - Continuous optimization of product performance and quality is underway to meet diverse market needs [4]

| 国投期货 SDIC FUTURES | | --- | | MILLE | | | SDIC FUTURES 操作评级 | 2025年04月29日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 棉花 | ★☆★ | | | 纸浆 | ★☆★ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ななな | | | 木材 | 女女女 | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 天然橡胶 | ななな | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ななな | F0285606 Z0003096 | | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载清注明出处 1 教商品日报 【20号胶&天然橡胶&合成橡胶】 【棉花&棉纱】 今天郑棉有所下跌,即将迎来五一惊期,商品持仓以减仓为主;国产棉现货交投清波;2024/25北鑫加采4129/29°30B/禁3内较 多纷售基盖在CF09+10 ...

A股复盘 | 必须赢 / 2025.04.29 我反正是空仓了，哈哈哈，来看看群友的操作！ 有人说，万一明天大A暴涨怎么办？这些年我发现的 缅A 规律不支持这种假设！ 放量大跌继续跌 缩量大涨继续跌 缩量大跌继续跌 放量大涨继续跌 当然，万一明天真的大涨，那我当然是冲锋啊！哈哈哈 乐完了开始今天的复盘，首先又是口水仗！ 隔夜，贝森特在CNBC的采访中又开始攻击中国，估计是之前给的台阶，中国没 下，哈哈哈，气急败坏了！ 贝森特说，中美贸易关系目前仍处于不确定阶段，关键在于中国是否愿意率先采 取实际措施"主动降温"。 贝森特提出，美国政府已制定一套统一的贸易谈判框架，目前正以 此为基础与 15至18个主要贸易伙伴进行磋商 。他透露，部分亚洲国家已主动提出诚意十足 的提案，包括削减关税、放宽非关税壁垒等，美国正在评估这些提案 ，"我猜印 度会是我们签署的首批贸易协议之一。所以，请拭目以待，"贝森特补充道。 结果又遭我们外交部驳斥！ 关税战、贸易战没有赢家！ 如果美方想通过对话谈 判解决问题，就应该停止威胁施压，在平等、尊重、互惠的基础上同中方开展对 话。 虽然外交部多次强调没有赢家，但是数据能说明一些事情！ "对等 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent statements from Chinese officials regarding the import of U.S. feed grains and oilseeds have led to significant cancellations of agricultural orders from the U.S., indicating a severe crisis for American farmers and related industries [1][8]. Group 1: Impact on U.S. Agriculture - The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported a drastic 72% drop in China's pork orders, with 12,000 tons canceled, marking the lowest weekly delivery volume of the year [3]. - The American "Agricultural Transportation Coalition" (AgTC) highlighted widespread cancellations across various agricultural sectors, describing the situation as a "full-blown crisis" affecting farmers, dock workers, and truck drivers [1][4]. - Reports indicate that U.S. agricultural prices have already dropped by over 20% due to the decline in trade with China, impacting inventory planning and future investments [7]. Group 2: Shift in Supply Sources - China plans to import a significant amount of soybeans from South America, with expectations of 8.5 million tons in April and 12 million tons in May, creating a record import volume for the second quarter [9]. - The Chinese government emphasized that the share of U.S. grains in its domestic consumption is low, and alternative sources are readily available, reducing reliance on U.S. imports [8]. Group 3: Economic Challenges for Exporters - Exporters are facing substantial economic losses, with reports of canceled orders and increased shipping costs due to rerouting cargo to other markets [4][6]. - A hay exporter noted that they had to redirect shipments to Japan and Taiwan, incurring additional costs and ultimately leading to workforce reductions [6][7]. - The introduction of new shipping fees for containerized agricultural products poses an additional financial challenge for U.S. exporters, as most valuable agricultural exports are transported in this manner [11].

文|六月 编辑|六月 前言 自2018年中美贸易战爆发以来，美国通过加征关税施压中国，试图迫使其让步，但特朗普的强硬政策未能扭转美国经济，反而加重了全球经济负 担，遭遇国内企业和民众的广泛反对。 特朗普施压降息，鲍威尔坚守美联储独立性，未屈从政治压力。其竟采取与中国同一阵线的立场，此事令特朗普惊愕不已。 中国面对美国压力，采取冷静务实的策略，强调平等对话和多边合作，力求在全球经济中最大化自身利益。 美联储在美国经济中的角色至关重要，它不仅关系到货币政策的制定，也直接影响到美国乃至全球的金融市场。 2017年，特朗普提名鲍威尔为美联储主席时，许多人对两人之间的合作充满期待。 鲍威尔的智慧能否帮助美国摆脱困境？中国又将如何应对未来的挑战？ 特朗普与鲍威尔 在美国，经济决策的权力从来不是集中在一个人手中的，尤其是美联储与政府之间，始终保持着一定程度的独立性。 毕竟，特朗普对经济的执着与鲍威尔的货币政策背景似乎有着某种契合。 特朗普希望通过降息来刺激美国经济，尤其是在面对贸易战带来的经济压力时，他更希望美联储能够加大宽松政策。 而鲍威尔则坚信美联储必须保持独立性，避免与政治挂钩，采取"稳中求进"的策略。 特朗普并没有 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, chemicals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, and provides investment suggestions based on their supply - demand situations, price trends, and market sentiment [1][2][3] - It also emphasizes the importance of risk control, especially around the May Day holiday, due to macro - uncertainties and market volatilities [2][34][35] Summaries by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: After a period of volatility, the oil price has entered a stable state. Demand growth is limited, and supply risks are weakening. It is recommended to hold a low - cost short - option portfolio to hedge against downside risks [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Russian fuel oil shipments have increased, and Singapore's fuel oil inventory is rising. The gasoline crack spread is strengthening, which boosts the low - sulfur fuel oil crack spread. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the strength of the LU contract [20] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas PG market is supported by chemical demand, but the domestic market is under pressure due to PDH shutdowns and import surpluses. The price is expected to remain volatile [22] - **Natural Gas**: No relevant content provided. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical tensions and uncertainties in the global political and economic situation support the long - term upward trend of gold prices. The market may be volatile this week, and position control is necessary [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The power outage in the Iberian Peninsula has raised concerns about European grid security. The refined copper market is expected to remain in surplus. It is recommended to hold short positions above 78,000 yuan for the 2507 contract [3] - **Aluminum**: The inventory of aluminum ingots and bars has decreased rapidly, and the price has rebounded. However, it may face resistance in the 20,000 - 20,300 yuan range [4] - **Zinc**: As the May Day holiday approaches, market sentiment is cautious. The consumption is weak, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [6] - **Lead**: The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and the price is expected to oscillate between 16,300 - 17,000 yuan/ton [7] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The pre - holiday stocking demand has not materialized. The price of nickel is at the end of a rebound, and short - selling opportunities should be monitored [8] - **Tin**: The downstream replenishment demand before May Day is limited. The price is expected to decline, and short positions should be held [9] - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese ore inventory is increasing, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds [17] - **Silicon Iron**: The demand is weakening, and the inventory is rising. It is recommended to short on rebounds [18] - **Ferrous Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is strong in the short term. The price is expected to oscillate, but there may be pressure when iron - water production peaks [14] - **Coke**: The second price increase was rejected, and the inventory is high. The market is paying attention to the evolution of steel exports [15] - **Coking Coal**: The output is gradually recovering, but the inventory is high. The price is expected to be weak [16] - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: The demand for rebar lacks sustainability, while the supply - demand of hot - rolled coil is stable. The market is waiting for the implementation of policies and the strength of peak - season demand [13] Chemicals - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to decline [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply is stable, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [12] - **Urea**: The supply is high, and the demand is weakening. The supply - demand contradiction may become prominent after the agricultural procurement peak [23] - **Methanol**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand will enter the off - season. The supply - demand will gradually turn loose [24] - **Styrene**: The cost is not supportive, and the supply - demand contradiction may intensify before the May Day holiday [25] - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The demand for both is weak, and the market sentiment is bearish [26] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The demand for PVC is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. The demand for caustic soda is also weak, and the price may be low [27] - **PX & PTA**: The industry supply - demand is improving, but there are potential risks of polyester production cuts. It is recommended to go long on the PTA - crude oil spread [28] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand is stable, and the price is oscillating at a low level. Attention should be paid to the trade situation and oil prices [29] Agricultural Products - **Grains** - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The supply of soybean meal will shift from tight to loose after the May Day holiday. The futures price is expected to be strong in the short term but may weaken later [34] - **Corn**: The market is divided, and the price may oscillate downward after the release of grain sources [37] - **Oils** - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The soybean supply will increase after the May Day holiday, and the palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle. Risk control is necessary [35] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean supply shortage will ease after the May Day holiday. The market is expected to oscillate [36] - **Other Agricultural Products** - **Cotton**: The US cotton sales data is average, and the domestic cotton demand has challenges. It is recommended to wait and see [40] - **Sugar**: The Brazilian new - season supply is expected to be sufficient, and the impact of drought in Guangxi on sugarcane is expected to be limited [41] - **Apple**: The spot sales are good, and the price may rise. The market is paying attention to the new - season apple production [42] - **Egg**: The egg price is expected to be weak in the long term due to seasonal factors and increasing production capacity [39] - **Pig**: The pig supply is expected to increase in the future, and the price may decline [38] Financial Derivatives - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The spot freight rate is expected to be weak, and the 06 contract is under pressure. The 08 contract has policy - related uncertainties [19] - **Stock Index**: The A - share market is oscillating, and the dividend sector has investment value. Attention should be paid to the rotation between consumption and technology - growth sectors [45] - **Treasury Bond**: The short - term over - decline repair of the treasury bond market is mostly completed. The price may oscillate in the next month [46]