"十四五"时期京津冀累计实现6573项标准共享 京津冀三地市场监管部门先后于2022年9月签订商事制度领域合作框架协议、2023年6月签订三地企业登 记注册工作协作备忘录，推进三地企业开办、变更、注销政策一致、流程统一，多项改革成果居全国前 列。 2021年，三地市场监管部门联合印发检验检测结果互认和采信公告，明确在资质认定范围内依法出具的 检验检测结果具有同等效力，三地均可互认和采信。2023年，印发关于进一步优化京津冀检验检测机构 资质认定相关工作的通知，三地统一资质认定行政许可范围。 自2022年8月起，国家市场监管总局试点委托北京开展包括京津冀在内的北方八省市区部分经营者集中 案件反垄断审查，试点以来，共办理委托案件83件。2023年12月，三地市场监管部门联合印发《京津冀 公平竞争审查互查审查指南》，进一步统一公平竞争审查尺度。每年制定工作方案，深入开展三地政策 措施实施交叉检查。"十四五"以来，共抽查政策措施255件，不断打破行政性市场壁垒，促进区域政策 更加协同，助力全国统一大市场建设。 夯实质量支撑和产业协作 三地市场监管部门建立"3+X"区域协同标准协作模式，以标准化助力京津冀高质量发展，聚 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for increased domestic demand policies to sustain economic growth in China during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, particularly focusing on enhancing consumer spending and stabilizing investment growth [1]. Group 1: Consumer Spending - The central economic work conference highlights the implementation of special actions to boost consumption in 2026, aiming to optimize policies and unleash the potential of service consumption [1]. - In 2025, China allocated 300 billion yuan in long-term special bonds to support the replacement of consumer goods, which is expected to drive significant growth in sectors like new energy vehicles and home appliances, thereby increasing retail sales [1]. - The current consumer spending rate in China is 39.9%, which is significantly lower than that of developed countries by 10-30 percentage points, indicating a need for substantial improvement [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Growth - Investment growth in China is projected to decline in 2025 due to various factors, including adjustments in the real estate market and external economic pressures, necessitating measures to stabilize and increase investment [1][11]. - The government is encouraged to increase central budget investments and optimize the implementation of key projects to support economic recovery [1]. - The article suggests that maintaining reasonable investment growth is crucial, especially in infrastructure and public services, to align with urbanization and industrialization processes [11][12]. Group 3: Income Growth and Middle-Income Group Expansion - The article discusses the importance of increasing residents' income to enhance consumer spending, advocating for a plan to raise income levels and improve the distribution of national income [7][8]. - The middle-income group, defined as households earning between 100,000 to 500,000 yuan annually, is crucial for driving consumption, with over 400 million people falling into this category [9]. - Expanding the middle-income group is expected to shift demand structures towards higher-end goods and services, thereby boosting overall domestic consumption [9]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - To stabilize market expectations, the economic growth target for 2026 should be set around 5%, with a focus on implementing proactive fiscal and monetary policies [6]. - The article recommends various measures to stimulate consumption, including the continuation of replacement policies for consumer goods and the removal of unreasonable consumption restrictions [10]. - It emphasizes the need for structural reforms and increased government investment to enhance public welfare and stimulate private sector investment [13][14].

作者简介： 赵 伟， 经济学博士，申万宏源证券首席经济学家，上海申银万国证券研究所有限公司副总经 理，中国证券业协会首席经济学家委员会委员，中国首席经济学家论坛理事 侯倩楠 （通信作者），管理学博士，申万宏源研究所宏观分析师 屠 强， 申万宏源研究所资深高级宏观分析师 摘要 ： 本文立足纵深推进全国统一大市场背景，系统探讨眼下"内卷"现象的成因、影响与 政策应对。研究指出，本轮"内卷"核心表现为PPI长期负增长及中下游产能利用率偏低，挤压企 业盈利、阻碍产业升级。深层根源是经济转型期新旧动能分化，叠加地方政府为追求GDP和财 政收入的同质化无序竞争。破解困境的对策包括：供给侧通过产量调控、淘汰落后产能优化产业 结构，提升产品质量以修复价格、增强竞争力；需求侧大力发展居民服务消费，借财政补贴与社 保完善释放消费潜力，同时引导就业从制造业向服务业转移，实现供需结构适配。本文贡献在 于，系统论证"反内卷"政策与经济高质量发展的内在联系，为相关部门优化产业结构、激发市 场活力提供理论依据与实践方向。 本文来源《新金融》2025年第12期 全文内容 综合整治"内卷式"竞争： 背景、成因、影响及应对 一 引言 近年来，" ...

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the importance of implementing Xi Jinping's instructions on the ideological and moral education of minors, focusing on strengthening ideological guidance and creating a positive social cultural environment for their growth [1] - It was highlighted that the work on minors' ideological and moral education should be treated as a strategic and foundational task by local governments to promote their healthy growth and comprehensive development [1] Group 2 - The meeting conveyed the spirit of the provincial economic work conference, which analyzed the current economic situation and outlined tasks for the upcoming year, emphasizing the need for confidence and determination in overcoming challenges [2] - Key strategies include maintaining stability while seeking progress, enhancing efficiency, and improving quality, with a focus on integrating into the national unified market, driving innovation, activating consumption, and expanding effective investment [2] - The meeting called for strong organizational leadership and a proactive approach to ensure the successful implementation of various tasks, particularly in pollution prevention and ensuring urban safety and social stability [2] Group 3 - The meeting discussed the national initiative to deepen the role of party building in addressing public complaints, recognizing it as a crucial aspect of social governance and a practical application of the people-centered development philosophy [3] - It was noted that the successful hosting of the national meeting should be leveraged to enhance organizational leadership and improve work mechanisms, ensuring effective integration of complaint handling with grid governance [3]

Core Viewpoint - The primary task for economic work next year is to "maintain domestic demand as the main driver and build a strong domestic market," focusing on optimizing consumption structure and enhancing quality in response to complex external environments and internal supply-demand pressures [1] Group 1: Consumption Trends - The service consumption market has been expanding, with retail service sales from January to November increasing by 5.4% year-on-year, surpassing the growth rate of goods retail sales [1] - The proportion of service consumption expenditure in total household consumption is continuously rising, indicating an ongoing optimization and upgrade of consumption structure [1] - Cultural and digital consumption supply is improving, with retail sales in cultural and recreational services maintaining double-digit growth [1] Group 2: Policy Support - Policies are being implemented to enhance the quality and efficiency of the life service consumption market, including the revision of the "Negative List for Market Access (2025 Edition)" to further relax market entry [2] - The environment for sectors like elderly care is improving, with increased efficiency in resource allocation and enhanced standardization of consumer services [2] - New consumption forms such as VR tourism and online fitness are being promoted through digital transformation and innovation in consumption scenarios [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Life service consumption is expected to play a crucial role in stabilizing economic growth and improving livelihoods during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [3] - There is a need to enhance the quality of supply in talent and technology, pushing life service consumption towards higher quality, added value, and diversification [3] - A regulatory framework that adapts to new business models is necessary, including the establishment of a unified national market construction regulation and the removal of various barriers [3] Group 4: Development Strategies - The development of life service industries should focus on improving factor support levels, including training high-skilled service talents and establishing service qualification systems aligned with international standards [4] - Digital transformation in the service sector is essential, with support for businesses to develop digital service functions such as smart booking and quality tracking [4] - The establishment of comprehensive urban and community service complexes integrating various functions like elderly care and cultural services is encouraged to enhance service standards and create well-known brands [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "involution" in the Chinese economy, highlighting its causes, impacts, and policy responses, emphasizing the need for structural reforms to enhance economic quality and stability [3][5][6]. Group 1: Causes and Impacts of Involution - The current "involution" is characterized by long-term negative growth in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and low capacity utilization rates in mid- and downstream industries, which squeeze corporate profits and hinder industrial upgrades [3][5]. - The deep-rooted causes of this "involution" include the differentiation of old and new economic drivers during the economic transition period and the chaotic competition among local governments pursuing GDP and fiscal revenue [5][6]. - The "involution" phenomenon has created a spiral contraction cycle of "price-income-consumption," severely restricting healthy economic development and transformation [5][6]. Group 2: Policy Responses and Recommendations - To address the "involution," policies should focus on both supply and demand sides, combining growth stabilization with reform promotion, which benefits both the present and the long term [6][11]. - Supply-side measures include production adjustment, elimination of backward production capacity, and improving product quality to restore prices and enhance competitiveness [6][11]. - Demand-side strategies should promote resident service consumption through fiscal subsidies and social security improvements to unleash consumption potential, while guiding employment from manufacturing to services [6][11]. Group 3: Evolution of Anti-Involution Policies - Since mid-2024, high-level meetings have consistently addressed the need to combat "involutionary" competition, with significant policy decisions made to regulate local government and corporate behaviors [7][8]. - The 2025 government work report outlined specific actions to establish a unified national market and comprehensively address "involutionary" competition [8][11]. - The current anti-involution policies are characterized by a higher stance, broader coverage, and stronger synergy compared to previous supply-side reforms, with a focus on both local governments and enterprises [11][12]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Context and Industry Characteristics - The macroeconomic environment is under pressure from continuously declining prices, with the PPI experiencing negative growth for 33 consecutive months, and industrial capacity utilization rates at historical lows [14][16]. - The profitability of industrial enterprises is under significant pressure, with many industries, particularly in the mid- and downstream sectors, experiencing negative profit growth [16][19]. - The "involution" is more pronounced in mid- and downstream industries, where the competition has intensified, leading to a decline in profitability and increased cost pressures [19][21]. Group 5: Structural Issues and Future Directions - The article emphasizes the need for structural reforms to break the cycle of "price-income-consumption" contraction, advocating for a shift from an investment-driven to an innovation-driven economy [20][42]. - The service sector is identified as a key area for absorbing employment and addressing structural unemployment, with significant potential for growth in service consumption [42][43]. - Policies should focus on enhancing service sector development, improving social security systems, and optimizing service industry regulations to stimulate demand and support economic transformation [37][42].

"青岛突出问题导向，深入查找优化营商环境工作存在的短板弱项，比如，民营企业公平参与市场竞 争、政策落地兑现等。对此，我们在政策中予以回应，着力解决困扰企业发展的顽瘴痼疾。"12月23 日，青岛市政府新闻办举行的新闻发布会上，青岛市行政审批局副局长王军，解读最新发布的《青岛市 全面提升为企服务水平持续打造一流营商环境行动方案》时如是说。 12月17日，青岛市人民政府办公厅印发了《青岛市全面提升为企服务水平持续打造一流营商环境行动方 案》，从公平竞争、产业发展、高水平对外开放、规范经营、权益保护、提升为企服务水平六个方面， 制定了36条行动方案，并确定了责任部门。每条措施都针对问题，譬如公平竞争方面，将放宽市场准 入、推动市场公平竞争，服务融入全国统一大市场建设；并将发布新版公共资源交易目录、全面推动公 共资源交易"应进必进"；同时深入开展招标采购领域专项治理。 "新方案是在'十四五'青岛不断优化营商环境基础上的再升级。"青岛市优化营商环境工作领导小组办公 室执行主任，市行政审批局党组书记、局长张琳说，"十四五"期间，青岛市营商环境工作取得历史性突 破：首次入选全国优化营商环境十大创新城市（300778），首次入 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for China to strengthen its internal capabilities to address external challenges, particularly in the context of a complex and uncertain global environment [1] - The article highlights the importance of focusing on domestic demand and innovation to enhance resilience against external uncertainties, advocating for a strong domestic market and the cultivation of new growth drivers [1] Group 2 - The article identifies a "strong supply and weak demand" contradiction, where supply is abundant but structurally imbalanced, leading to intensified competition in low-end products and insufficient high-end supply [3] - It points out that weak consumer growth is influenced by factors such as low expectations for income growth and inadequate service quality, alongside investment vitality issues and external demand pressures from a sluggish global economic recovery [3] Group 3 - The meeting proposes to "deeply implement special actions to boost consumption," including plans to increase residents' income share in national income distribution and enhance government spending on social welfare to stabilize income expectations [4] - It mentions that from January to November this year, the policy of replacing old consumer goods has driven sales exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people, thus injecting momentum into consumption [4] Group 4 - On the supply side, the meeting calls for "expanding the supply of quality goods and services," emphasizing innovation-driven approaches and the acceleration of emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and green energy [5] - It also stresses the need for market-oriented reforms in resource allocation and the establishment of a unified national market to address mismatches between supply and demand across regions [5] Group 5 - The article concludes that the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" should focus on expanding domestic demand and strengthening the domestic circulation to effectively address the "strong supply and weak demand" contradiction [7] - It asserts that regardless of external environmental changes, a commitment to focusing on internal capabilities will help maintain and expand economic stability and progress towards modernization [7]

研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 铝类产业日报 2025/12/23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22,195.00 | -25.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,520.00 | +22.00↑ | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | -125.00 | -5.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -109.00 | +2.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 301,815.00 | -12484.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 135,956.00 | -15251.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 74,400.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 197,566.00 | -61270.00↓ | | 期货市场 | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/ ...

研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） 120,360.00 | | +5980.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -141,692.00 | +5257.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） 671,573.00 | | -316.00↓ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -1,560.00 | +20.00↑ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） 16,651.00 | | +240.00↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） 99,500.00 | | +500.00↑ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 96,850.00 | +500.00↑ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） -20,860.00 | | -5480.00↓ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平 ...