Ken Griffin猛烈抨击特朗普的关税政策，认为其正在损害美国声誉。 据媒体报道，周三，对冲基金巨头Citadel创始人兼首席执行官肯·格里芬(Ken Griffin)在世界经济峰会上接受媒体采访时表示， 特朗普行动过快，疏远了盟友， 并玷污了美国资产曾经"无可比拟"的卓越声誉，包括美国国债、美元强势和国家信用度。 Griffin警告称： 不幸的是，贸易战已经变得毫无意义，这意味着我们要花时间思考供应链。 我们将品牌置于风险之中。要修复已经造成的损害，可能需要一辈子的时间。 他将当前情况与哈佛大学的遭遇相提并论，认为政府对这所美国顶尖学府的施压，无异于"攻击美国最卓越的品牌之一"。 关税无法推动制造业回流，美国四周内已变穷20% 近几周来，由于特朗普在关税问题上反复无常的态度，以及一度暗示可能解雇美联储主席（后又收回言论），投资者纷纷抛售美国股票和国债，市场剧烈波 动，深层的不安情绪持续存在。 Griffin对特朗普旨在通过关税复兴美国制造业的核心目标表示强烈怀疑。他认为： 我告诉你什么不会发生：人们不会筹集资金在美国建厂，因为政策的波动性实际上破坏了你试图实现的目标。 Griffin引用欧元作为参照， ...

Core Viewpoint - ABB is expanding its production investment in the U.S. in response to Trump's tariff policies, raising questions about the actual effects of U.S. trade protectionism on global supply chains [1][5]. Group 1: ABB's Investment Strategy - ABB plans to increase its local production ratio in the U.S. to over 90% through a combination of organic investment and acquisitions [3]. - Currently, 75%-80% of ABB's sales in the U.S. rely on domestic production, with a total investment of approximately $500 million (about 3.7 billion RMB) over the past three years for factory expansions [3]. - Recent investments include a $40 million (about 290 million RMB) expansion in Senatobia, Mississippi, creating 122 technical jobs and doubling production capacity, and an $80 million (about 580 million RMB) new factory in Selmer, Tennessee, focused on power distribution equipment [3][5]. Group 2: Industry Context and Reactions - Other companies, such as Honda and Novartis, are also increasing their U.S. production to mitigate tariff risks, with Honda planning a 30% increase in U.S. auto production and Novartis investing $23 billion (about 161 billion RMB) [5]. - ABB's CEO emphasized the need to reduce import dependence in the U.S. market, aligning with the Trump administration's goals to boost domestic manufacturing and employment [5]. - The Mississippi Development Authority supports ABB through tax incentive programs, highlighting the state's attractive business environment [5]. Group 3: Market Concerns and Economic Impact - Despite ABB's investments being seen as a short-term success of tariff policies, there are concerns about the long-term sustainability of these strategies [7]. - Analysts express worries that rising costs due to tariffs may squeeze corporate profits, and that mergers and acquisitions could increase financial risks [7]. - The local economy has benefited from ABB's investments, with new jobs contributing to community stability, although actual job creation may fall short of initial promises [7][9].

点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 特朗普政府试图通过加征关税促使美国贸易逆差收窄，制造业回流，我们认为这两个目标难以通过关税实现。首先，关税难以使得美国贸易逆差收窄。 从理论来看，提升关税并不一定能够缩减逆差（扩大顺差）。根据勒纳对称定理，对进口征税等同于对本国的出口征税。从历史来看，1890年《麦金利关 税法案》后，美国顺差一度上升，但是1930年《斯穆特-霍利关税法案》后，美国顺差下降，甚至一度转为逆差，说明了关税和贸易顺差之间的复杂关 系。1890年，美国仍然处于工业化相对早期阶段，面临英国的竞争，关税可以保护其幼稚产业。而到了1930年《斯穆特-霍利关税法案》出台时，美国的 国际地位已经超过英国，在全球出口中的份额也已经超过英国。对于一个大国而言，关税可能同时导致其进口和出口下降，而贸易逆差未必收窄。 关税难以促使制造业回流美国。 前几年美国制造业投资一度加速，但并未持续，近来制造业新开工投资、短期的投资计划出现下滑。中国的中间品对美 国的出口远低于对新兴市场的出口，也反映美国制造业回流缓慢。全球制造业产业链更多的是调整到新兴市场国家，而非美国。与之相应的是，中国与美 国之间的供应链长度增加。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of potential tariffs on semiconductors and the electronic supply chain in the U.S., highlighting that such measures may not achieve their intended goals and could lead to increased manufacturing costs and further offshoring of production [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Implications - The U.S. imports approximately $30 billion worth of chips annually, primarily from Southeast Asia, and imposing tariffs may not encourage domestic manufacturing due to a lack of labor-intensive packaging and assembly capabilities [1]. - If tariffs are implemented, companies might shift more manufacturing processes overseas to mitigate rising costs, potentially leading to a situation where entire manufacturing processes are relocated rather than just the assembly of imported chips [1][2]. - The U.S. government is considering a more aggressive approach by implementing "component tariffs," which would tax the value of foreign chips embedded in imported devices, reflecting the complexities of modern supply chains [2][3]. Group 2: Challenges of Domestic Manufacturing - The article raises the question of what issues the semiconductor tariffs aim to address, noting that targeting Chinese chips could be a low-cost solution, but the broader goal of reshaping trade relations with China is more complex [3]. - The construction of new chip factories takes years, and immediate tariff implementation could exacerbate economic pressures, potentially pushing the U.S. economy into recession [3][4]. - The ambition for semiconductor self-sufficiency in the U.S. faces significant challenges, including reliance on critical manufacturing equipment produced by a limited number of companies in Japan and the Netherlands, which could increase domestic production costs and reduce competitiveness [3][4]. Group 3: Global Semiconductor Industry - A large-scale tariff approach is unlikely to achieve the goal of self-sufficiency, as the U.S. economy heavily relies on chips, particularly for AI ambitions that require substantial computing power [4]. - A more viable strategy would be to develop a global semiconductor industry that is both reliable and efficient, rather than attempting to isolate and self-sustain the domestic market [4].

金十数据4月23日讯，美国政府近期滥施关税，其目标之一是宣称所谓"让制造业回流"，但诸多美国媒 体、专家以及制造商都向白宫这一雄心勃勃的计划泼了冷水。美国媒体报道说，多家在美国的制造业知 名企业已经开始裁员。当地时间21日，美国弗吉尼亚州卡迪纳尔新闻网报道说，沃尔沃汽车将在弗吉尼 亚州都柏林工厂裁员250至350人。此前，沃尔沃汽车宣布，由于关税导致市场需求面临不确定性，计划 在美国裁员550-800人，涉及的工厂还包括宾夕法尼亚州麦克卡车工厂和马里兰州黑格斯敦工厂。 （央 视网） 多家在美制造业知名企业开始裁员 ...

投资要点 ： 美国：制造业回流阻力很大。当前，美国对外利用关税抬高跨国公司在海外生产并在美国销售的成 本，来吸引制造业回流。但美国制造业存在劳动力成本较高、制造业相关劳动力短缺、产业链配套不 完整等问题，制造业回流即使发生，也将是非常缓慢的过程。 第三方国家：难以替代中国制造。较多新兴经济体在发展制造业时存在经济制度、人才储备以及经济 体量等多方面的制约。例如，东南亚较多国家，如印尼、马来西亚、泰国等已出现早熟型去工业化的 特征，经济重心转向服务业。越南制造业近年来快速发展，但其体量较小且产业链仍锚定在下游组装 加工环节。印度虽然经济体量较大，人口众多，但其制造业发展呈现碎片化特征。综合来看，中国制 造业在全球范围内具备明显优势，其他国家在短期内想要快速取代中国制造的可能性较低。 在全球化与贸易自由化的背景下，发达国家去工业化是常见的产业结构演变趋势。 这背后的原因是，随着发 达国家经济的不断发展，劳动力、土地等要素成本会不断上升，使得制造业企业的生产成本增加。在全球信 任基础相对牢固的情况下，企业会倾向于将生产环节转移到成本更低的地区，由多个国家根据自身比较优势 来分工协作完成生产，以实现成本最优。因此，去 ...

美国推出新一轮的单边关税政策 1 2025年4月2日，在美国的"解放日"中，美国政府宣布了国家紧急状态并推出了覆盖所有美国贸易伙伴 的"互惠"(reciprocal)关税政策。而在此之前，已经有多项针对其主要贸易伙伴（如中国，加拿大、墨 西哥等）的关税政策出台，部分已经进入执行状态。 在2024年，美国的进出口逆差超过了1.2万亿美元 1 ，在此情况下这一次的关税体现了两个特点，第 一为覆盖范围广——覆盖所有贸易伙伴，即使美国的贸易顺差国家也被加以10%的关税，第二为有针 对性的差异化税率，美国的主要贸易逆差国家和地区被加征更高的关税。 | 2 | | --- | 美国与中国的关税博弈自2018年始， 特朗普开始第二任期后再次升级 本文选自科尔尼 2025 年 4 月 8 日刊发的行业通讯，现全文分享。 中美作为全球最大的两大经济体，2024年中美双边贸易额约6800亿美元，其中美国对中国出口约 1600亿美元，美国从中国进口约5200亿美元，贸易逆差约3600亿美元 2 。 其中中国主要出口机电产品、纺织鞋服、金属制品等，美国主要出口机械电子、农产品、能源等，因 此这些行业中的企业受关税影响较大。 美国政府 ...

Summary of Conference Call on the Impact of Tariffs on the Home Appliance Industry Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the home appliance industry, particularly focusing on the impact of tariffs imposed by the United States on imports from China [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **High Dependency on Imports**: The U.S. has a high dependency on home appliance imports, especially small appliances and televisions. The tariff aims to encourage manufacturing to return to the U.S., but achieving this in the short term is challenging, potentially leading to increased domestic inflation [1][2]. - **Limited Impact on Chinese Companies**: Major Chinese appliance manufacturers like Gree, Midea, and Haier have a low export ratio to the U.S., with peak exports not exceeding 6%. Therefore, the direct impact of the tariffs on these leading companies is likely overestimated [1][2]. - **Labor Cost Challenges**: The cost of labor in the U.S. is significantly higher than in China, with U.S. labor costs being nearly ten times higher. This disparity makes manufacturing in the U.S. less competitive, leading to potential doubling of retail prices if production were to shift back to the U.S. [1][2][9]. - **Overseas Production Strategies**: Chinese appliance companies are strategically increasing their overseas production capacities in regions like Southeast Asia and Mexico to mitigate the impact of tariffs. Companies like Haier and Hisense have sufficient capacity in these regions to adjust supply flexibly [1][3][12]. - **Performance of Major Appliance Companies**: White and black appliance leaders are less affected by U.S.-China tariffs and are expected to benefit from domestic consumption policies, with strong performance anticipated in Q1 2025 [1][14]. - **Small Appliance Sector Exposure**: Small appliance companies have a larger revenue exposure in the U.S. market but are actively expanding overseas production to reduce tariff impacts. Companies like Qianfeng Holdings and Stone Technology are increasing their production capabilities in Vietnam and Indonesia [1][12][13]. - **Cost Disparities in Production**: The labor cost difference for producing large appliances in the U.S. is about 50%, while for small appliances, it can reach 100%. This makes U.S. production of these products uncompetitive [5][9]. - **U.S. Market Dependency on Imports**: Approximately 55% of U.S. home appliance retail comes from imports, with a significant portion from China. The actual dependency could be as high as 70% when considering price differences [5][6]. - **Limited Recovery of U.S. Manufacturing**: Despite tariff imposition, there has been no significant improvement in U.S. manufacturing reliance on imports from 2017 to 2024, with overall import values increasing by over 10% [7][8]. - **Future Outlook for Chinese Companies**: Chinese companies are expected to manage tariff impacts effectively through global production strategies, with many maintaining low exposure to U.S. markets [10][11]. Other Important Insights - **Consumer Demand**: The domestic consumer demand in China is showing strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 19% in retail sales of home appliances expected in Q1 2025 [14][15]. - **Policy Support**: The current domestic consumption policies in China are expected to further support the performance of home appliance companies, particularly those with a strong domestic market presence [14][15].

成都鞋类产业带规模全国第三，与另外三大鞋类产业带温州、泉州、广州并称为"三州一都"，诞生了诸 多女鞋品牌，也是很多知名品牌的主要代工地。 有数据显示，成都聚集了逾1500家生产型鞋业企业和配套企业。成都鞋类出口量占中国女鞋三分之一, 美国亦是出口目的地之一。美国滥施关税对成都的制鞋产业影响几何？ 与美直接贸易不多 4月15日，证券时报记者采访了四川省鞋业协会秘书长马运涛。他表示，经历了前些年的中美贸易摩 擦，成都乃至四川的制鞋企业多已转战内销市场。外贸方面，俄罗斯等欧洲市场才是成都鞋类出口的主 要目的地，同美国客户直接贸易的企业已经不多，"整体来看，美国实施的关税战对成都制鞋产业的影 响并不大"。 他同时指出，针对沿海制鞋企业或加大内销的潜在压力，成都女鞋产业也需要改善原有相对粗放的管理 水平等来应对。 成都武侯区簇桥街道，一只巨大的红色女鞋模型摆放在道路一侧；一路之隔，"中国女鞋之都"的黄色标 识矗立。以上种种都说明着这里是"中国女鞋之都"的核心地带。虽然商厦外观稍显陈旧，但依然看得出 昔日的辉煌。 四川省鞋业协会在收集信息时了解到，有的美国客户选择损失定金（通常为订单的30%）；有的则要求 制鞋企业通过东 ...

隔夜美股一度转跌，最终集体收高，中概股大涨。 周一美股三大指数高开后，盘中回落一度均转跌，最终集体收涨，截至收盘，纳指涨0.64%，道指涨0.78%，标普500指数涨0.79%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收盘涨3.23%。热门中概股集体上涨，阿里巴巴、小鹏汽车涨超5%，京东、拼多多涨超4%，百度涨超3%，理想汽车、蔚来涨超 2%。 美联储理事沃勒表示，预计美国3月PCE通胀将大体上持稳于2.3%。若关税对通胀影响较小，可能在今年晚些时候降息。 美股集体收涨 欧洲股市集体上涨，三大股指涨超2%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 英国富时100 | 8134.34 c | 170.16 | 2.14% | | 法国CAC40 | 7273.12 c | 168.32 | 2.37% | | 德国DAX | 20954.83 c | 580.73 | 2.85% | | 意大利富时MIB | 35007.14 c | 979.31 | 2.88% | | 欧元区STOXX5( | 4911.39 c | 124.16 | 2.59% | | 俄罗斯R ...