美伊接近达成核协议，地缘风险降温，黄金关键转换位在哪？点击观看GMA指标直播分析 相关链接 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Due to the easing of tariff and geopolitical risks, precious metals in the Shanghai market dropped significantly. The short - term outlook for gold is a major negative, with the possibility of the Fed's preventive interest rate cut decreasing and the rate - cut time likely to be postponed to after September. Although the medium - and long - term interest rate cut expectation is positive for gold and there is significant buying support from continuous inflows into gold ETFs, gold may remain under pressure in the short term. Silver has some support from its industrial and commodity attributes but may still be weak due to the linkage effect with gold. It is recommended to wait and see, and specific price ranges for different contracts are provided [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 739.82 yuan/gram, down 21.9 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 8008 yuan/kilogram, down 187 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold were 211,188 hands, down 3,590 hands; the main contract positions of Shanghai silver were 342,882 hands, up 62,114 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract were 106,847 hands, down 1,171 hands; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract were 122,646 hands, down 13,699 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 17,238 kilograms, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver was 914,782 kilograms, down 4,681 kilograms [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 737 yuan/gram, down 21.51 yuan; the spot price of silver was 8026 yuan/kilogram, down 138 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 2.82 yuan/gram, up 0.39 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was 18 yuan/kilogram, up 49 yuan [2]. Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings were 936.51 tons, unchanged; the silver ETF holdings were 13,971.47 tons, down 28.28 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 162,497 contracts, down 821 contracts; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC were 49,252 contracts, down 691 contracts. The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year was 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 31.99%, up 1.56 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 25.76%, up 1.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was - 1.13, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 26.62% (previous value 26.61%, change - 1.13) [2]. Industry News - China suspended 28 US entities from the export control list for 90 days and 17 US entities from the unreliable entity list for 90 days. In April, global physical gold ETFs had a strong inflow of about $11 billion, and the total asset management scale of global gold ETFs reached $379 billion at the end of April. Asia had a large inflow of about $7.3 billion, with China being the main driver. Trump visited Qatar and signed multiple cooperation agreements, expected to bring at least $1.2 trillion in economic exchanges. The first - round cease - fire negotiation between Russia and Ukraine will start in Turkey, and the easing of the situation weakens the safe - haven demand for gold. The Fed's attitude towards inflation and economic data was also mentioned [2].

俄乌世纪会晤倒计时，地缘风险缓和预期下，黄金表示压力山大？金十研究员高阳正在直播分析，点击 进入直播间 相关链接 ...

Group 1: Core Views - On May 13, 2025, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for June 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.67 per barrel, up $1.72 or 2.78% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.65 - $63.9 [1] - The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for July 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.63 per barrel, up $1.67 or 2.57% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64.63 - $66.81 [1] - Sino - US economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress, with the US canceling 91% of the additional tariffs and China canceling 91% of the counter - tariffs; both sides suspended the implementation of 24% of relevant tariffs [2] - Geopolitical risks have weakened. If sanctions on Iran are eased, oil exports will increase. Hamas is ready to negotiate a cease - fire, and there is a possibility of further progress in the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations [3] - Affected by the optimistic outlook of trade negotiations and the expected shortage of heavy crude oil supply, oil prices are running strongly. A double - bottom pattern has formed, attracting buying sentiment. However, the continuous upward space for oil prices is limited due to OPEC+ production increases and Trump's low - oil - price policy. In the second quarter, oil prices will fluctuate greatly due to Trump administration's uncertain policy adjustments. Near the summer oil consumption peak season, considering factors such as the sluggish economic recovery outlook and new energy substitution, oil prices may decline [4]

美国贸易谈判有新进展，继续关注地缘风险，黄金能否守住3200？点击观看金十研究员文成直播分析 相关链接 ...

特朗普抨击伊朗，警惕地缘风险陡升，黄金关键转换位在哪？点击观看GMA指标直播分析 相关链接 ...

原油产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月14日 宙 扬 Z0020680 | 原油价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 5月14日 | 2月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 車位 | | Brent | 66.53 | 66.63 | -0.10 | -0.15% | | | WTI | 63.59 | 63.67 | -0.08 | -0.13% | 美元/桶 | | SC | 491.00 | 482.80 | 8.20 | 1.70% | 元/桶 | | Brent M1-M3 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | WTI M1-M3 | 0.95 | 0.93 | 0.02 | 2.15% | 美元/桶 | | SC M1-M3 | 12.20 | 12.90 | -0.70 | -5.43% | 元/桶 | | Brent-WTI | 2.94 | 2.96 | -0.02 | -0.68% | | | EFS | 1.15 | 1.11 ...

GMA直播 特朗普开启中东行，关注地缘风险变化，黄金能否填补缺口？点击观看GMA指标直播分析 相关链接 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On May 12, 2025, the settlement price of the June 2025 West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $61.95 per barrel, up $0.93 or 1.52% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.02 - $63.61. The settlement price of the July 2025 Brent crude oil futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $64.96 per barrel, up $1.05 or 1.64% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.88 - $66.4 [1] - The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks have made substantial progress, significantly reducing bilateral tariff levels. The US has cancelled 91% of the additional tariffs, and China has correspondingly cancelled 91% of the counter - tariffs. The US has suspended the implementation of 24% "reciprocal tariffs", and China has also correspondingly suspended the implementation of 24% counter - tariffs [2] - Attention is paid to the progress of the US - Iran nuclear negotiations. Iranian sanctions may ease, and oil exports will increase. Hamas has stated its readiness to participate in negotiations for a comprehensive and sustainable cease - fire agreement. There is also a possibility of further progress in the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations, weakening the impact of geopolitical risks on oil prices [3] - Affected by the optimistic outlook of trade negotiations and the expected shortage of heavy crude oil supply resources, oil prices are running strongly. Currently, oil prices have formed a double bottom, attracting some buying sentiment. However, the continuous upward space for oil prices is limited, mainly due to OPEC+ production increases and Trump's low - oil - price policy. In the second quarter, oil prices will still fluctuate greatly, mainly due to the uncertain policy adjustments of the Trump administration. Near the summer peak oil consumption season, considering factors such as the sluggish economic recovery outlook and the substitution of new energy, oil prices still have room to decline [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - On May 12, 2025, WTI June 2025 futures settled at $61.95/barrel, up 1.52%, trading between $61.02 - $63.61. Brent July 2025 futures settled at $64.96/barrel, up 1.64%, trading between $63.88 - $66.4 [1] Trade Negotiations - Sino - US trade talks made progress, with both sides cancelling 91% of relevant tariffs and suspending 24% of tariffs [2] Geopolitical Situation - Iran sanctions may ease, increasing oil exports. Hamas is ready for cease - fire talks, and there's potential progress in Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations, weakening geopolitical impact on oil prices [3] Future Outlook - Oil prices are strong due to trade optimism and supply concerns but have limited upward space due to OPEC+ output and Trump's policy. Second - quarter prices will be volatile, and there's a risk of decline near summer [4]

Core Viewpoint - The global commodity market is entering a "super cycle" with significant price increases in gold and oil driven by inflation and geopolitical risks [1][8]. Group 1: Gold and Oil Price Dynamics - Gold is seen as both a safe-haven asset and an inflation hedge, with prices surpassing $2400 per ounce, supported by central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions [4][6]. - Oil prices have risen due to supply-demand imbalances and geopolitical risks, with Brent crude oil prices returning above $85 per barrel, supported by OPEC+ production cuts and increased demand from China and the U.S. [4][7]. Group 2: TradeMax Platform Features - TradeMax offers a comprehensive trading platform for commodities, allowing users to trade gold and oil with features like low spreads and no expiration dates for contracts [4][5]. - The platform provides intelligent tools for decision-making, including real-time market analysis and alerts for significant economic events, enhancing trading strategies [4][8]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The outlook for gold and oil remains strong, with ongoing support from central bank purchases and geopolitical risks, although potential corrections may occur following Federal Reserve rate cuts [6][8]. - Technical analysis suggests gold could target $2500 per ounce, while Brent crude oil may challenge the $90 per barrel mark, indicating potential trading opportunities [8].