Inflation Data Overview - The U.S. CPI for January 2026 showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, lower than the expected 2.5% and the previous value of 2.7%[2] - Core CPI year-on-year was 2.5%, matching expectations but slightly down from 2.6% in December 2025[2] - Month-on-month CPI adjusted for seasonal factors increased by 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%[2] Key Drivers of Inflation - The decline in inflation was primarily driven by falling food and energy prices, with energy prices decreasing by 1.5% month-on-month, compared to a previous increase of 0.3%[2] - Food prices rose by 0.2% month-on-month, down from a 0.6% increase in December 2025, largely due to a drop in egg prices[2] Core Inflation Risks - Core inflation shows potential upward pressure, particularly in clothing and new car prices, which increased by 0.3% and 0.1% month-on-month, respectively[2] - Despite a significant drop in used car prices, early indicators suggest a possible rebound in the coming months[2] Service Prices and Weather Impact - Core service prices saw a slight increase, with transportation costs rising by 1.4% month-on-month due to weather-related disruptions[2] - Housing prices showed a slight decline, with rent year-on-year decreasing from 2.9% to 2.8%[2] Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The overall inflation data exceeded expectations, leading to market speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, resulting in a rise in U.S. stocks and bonds, and a decline in the dollar index[2] - The sustainability of the January inflation data remains uncertain due to various short-term disturbances, particularly from weather factors[2]

2月14日，欢迎来到股市早观点，我们来看看今天有哪些消息热点？ 数据方面，美国劳工统计局周五公 布，1月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.4%，较上月回落0.3个百分点。美国1月通胀表现相对温和， 缓解了对通胀大幅上升的担忧，提振了市场对美联储将降息的预期。利率互换交易员预计在12月前进行 第三次降息的可能性约为50%。据报道，交易员在数据显示通胀温和后加大对美联储降息的押注，一些 投资者在周四的大幅抛售后逢低买入黄金。 不过，通胀率仍持续高于美联储2%的年度目标。 芝加哥联 储行长奥斯坦·古尔斯比表示，如果通胀在跌向2%目标水平的轨道上，美联储可以进一步降息，但目前 并非如此。 "我认为利率可以从当前水平进一步下调，甚至可能再降几次。但前提是通胀回到迈向2% 的轨道上，"古尔斯比周五接受采访时表示。"目前我们没有在回到2%的轨道上。 关注我，更多股市资 讯告诉你！ ...

当地时间2月13日， 俄罗斯中央银行宣布，将基准利率从16%下调至15.5%，这是俄 央行连续第六次降息 。 俄央行发布的声明称，俄罗斯经济继续回归平衡增长轨道。受一次性因素影响，1月份通胀出 现显著加速，但随着该因素消退，通胀将恢复放缓。整体上，去年11月至今年1月的物价上涨 符合央行预期。 俄央行将2026年通胀预期上调至4.5%至5.5%，但预计下半年通胀将 "接近4%"。俄央行还 预计2027年通胀将回归目标水平，目前，年化通胀率为6.3%。此外，对2026年平均基准利 率的预测区间为13.5%至14.5%。 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体 法律责任的权利。 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes END 点击关键字可查看 潜望系列深度报道丨 股事会专栏 丨 投资小红书 丨 e公司调查 丨 时报会客厅 丨 十大明星私募访谈 丨 央行等四部门联合发布！ 丨 黄金、白银大涨！ 丨 6月降息概率飙升！深夜，美国重磅通胀数据 公布 丨 宁德时代被纳入！港股，重大调整！ 丨 688209在互动平台"自问自答"，被 ...

Inflation Overview - In January 2026, the US CPI year-on-year growth fell to 2.4%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, exceeding market expectations of 2.5%[9] - The month-on-month CPI growth decreased to 0.2%, down 0.1 percentage points, also surpassing market expectations of 0.3%[9] - Core CPI year-on-year growth decreased to 2.5%, while month-on-month growth increased to 0.3%, aligning with market expectations[9] Core Inflation Insights - The decline in overall inflation was primarily driven by falling energy and food prices, with energy prices dropping 1.5% month-on-month, contributing significantly to the overall CPI decrease[11] - Super core inflation, excluding food, energy, used cars, and rent, showed significant pressure, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, the highest since September 2022[18] - Core services, excluding energy services, saw a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, with notable rebounds in transportation and education services[21] Future Outlook - Future inflation may experience volatility, with potential rebounds in energy prices and used car prices expected in the coming months[23] - The average effective tariff rate in the US was 9.8% as of November 2025, indicating limited tariff increases, which may not significantly impact inflation in the short term[26] - Market expectations for Fed rate cuts remain at two times in 2026, with the first cut anticipated in June 2026[26] Risk Factors - Risks include potential geopolitical conflicts leading to surges in oil prices and unexpected changes in tariff or fiscal policies that could drive inflation higher[29]

Inflation Data Overview - In January 2026, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.5% and the previous value of 2.7%[2] - The core CPI also showed a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, matching expectations but slightly down from 2.6% in December 2025[2] Key Drivers of Inflation - The decline in inflation was primarily driven by falling food and energy prices, with food prices rising by 0.2% month-on-month compared to 0.6% previously, and energy prices decreasing by 1.5% month-on-month, down from a 0.3% increase[2] - Energy commodity prices fell by 3.3% month-on-month, while energy services saw a slight increase of 0.2%[2] Core Inflation Risks - Core goods prices showed upward pressure, particularly in clothing (up 0.3% month-on-month) and new car prices (up 0.1%) despite a significant drop in used car prices (down 2.0% year-on-year)[2] - Core services prices increased slightly by 0.4% month-on-month, influenced by higher transportation costs due to severe weather conditions[2] Market Reactions - Following the release of the January inflation data, the market reacted with expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a rise in both US stocks and bonds, a decline in the US dollar index, and an increase in gold prices[2] Uncertainties and Future Outlook - The report highlights significant uncertainties in the sustainability of the January inflation data, primarily due to weather-related disruptions and the potential for core inflation to rise again[2] - The upcoming tax refund season and fiscal subsidies may stimulate consumer demand, posing risks for core goods and services inflation to remain sticky[2]

扣除食品和能源，美国1月核心CPI环比上涨0.3%，高于前值0.2%；1月核心CPI同比上涨2.5%，低于前 值2.6%，为2021年4月以来新低，均符合市场预期。 美国行业金融机构海军联邦信贷联盟（Navy Federal Credit Union）首席经济学家希瑟·朗（Heather Long）表示，这对通胀而言是非常棒的消息。通胀回落到去年5月以来的低点，食品、汽油和房租等关 键商品的价格上涨在降温，这为中产阶层和中等收入家庭提供了迫切需要的缓解。 拉登堡塔尔曼资产管理公司（Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management）首席执行官兼总裁菲尔·布兰卡托 （Phil Blancato）表示，1月CPI数据应该会受到市场和预计出任美联储主席的凯文·沃什的欢迎。虽然这 只是一个月的数据，但如果这一趋势继续，应该会为更低利率和抑制通胀铺平道路。 新华财经北京2月14日电美国国债收益率周五（2月13日）降至全周低点，因政府停摆而推迟至当天发布 的美国1月CPI涨速低于预期，强化了市场对降息的信心。 美国财政部官网数据显示，对政策利率敏感的2年期美债收益率较前一周下跌10个基点，报3.40% ...

Inflation Trends - The CPI year-on-year decreased to 3.0%, while the core CPI fell to 6.1%, indicating a slowdown in inflation driven by lagging factors[3] - The nominal CPI was slightly below expectations due to a significant drop in energy prices and a continued slowdown in used car prices[3] - Core services saw a slight acceleration, primarily due to increases in non-residential costs, but housing costs continued to ease, supporting the core inflation target of around 2%[3] Food and Energy Prices - Food prices adjusted seasonally decreased from 3.6% in the previous month to 3.1%, with year-on-year growth remaining at 3.0%[3] - The energy index adjusted seasonally fell by 4.5%, with a year-on-year decline of 3.1%, significantly impacting nominal inflation[3] - Energy commodities saw a month-on-month decrease of 6.6%, with gasoline prices dropping by 6.1%[3] Core Goods and Services - Core goods, excluding food and energy, showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, indicating limited pass-through of tariff-related price increases[3] - Core services, excluding energy services, increased slightly to 3.5% month-on-month, reflecting marginal acceleration in service prices[3] Housing Costs - Housing costs decreased month-on-month by 0.3% and year-on-year by 4.3%, continuing a slow downward trend that limits service inflation[4] - The moderate increase in rent and owner-equivalent rent was consistent with leading rental indicators, supporting the easing of core inflation towards the 2% target[4] Market Expectations - The market's expectations for interest rate cuts remain stable, with CME data indicating a baseline pricing for three rate cuts throughout the year[4] - U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield decreasing to 3.67% and the 2-year yield down to 4.67%[4]

Inflation Trends - The CPI year-on-year decreased to 3.0%, while the core CPI fell to 6.1%, indicating a slowdown in inflation driven by lagging factors[3] - The nominal CPI was slightly below expectations due to a significant drop in energy prices and a continued slowdown in used car prices[3] - Core services saw a slight acceleration, primarily due to increases in non-residential costs, but housing costs continued to ease, supporting a move towards the inflation target of 2%[3] Food and Energy Prices - Food prices adjusted month-on-month fell significantly from 3.6% in the previous month to 3.1%, with year-on-year growth remaining at 3.0%[3] - Energy index adjusted month-on-month decreased by 1.6%, with a year-on-year decline of 3.1%, primarily driven by lower energy commodity prices[3] - The core goods index, excluding food and energy, showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, indicating limited pass-through of tariff-related price increases[3] Housing Costs - Housing costs adjusted month-on-month increased by 3.1% and year-on-year by 4.3%, continuing a slow downward trend that limits service inflation[4] - The continued cooling of housing costs suggests a foundation for core inflation to approach the 2% target in 2024, without significantly constraining the return to a neutral federal funds rate around 3%[4] Market Expectations - The market's expectations for interest rate cuts remain stable, with CME data indicating a baseline pricing for three rate cuts throughout the year[4] - U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield decreasing by 6 basis points to 3.67%[4] - The U.S. dollar index slightly declined by 0.1% to 102.5, while precious metals continued to strengthen, with gold and silver prices rising by 1.66% and 1.77% respectively[4]

《华尔街日报》分析认为，美国1月通胀放缓，降幅超出经济学家的预期，主要是受汽油价格和二手车 价格下降的推动。不过，电脑、洗衣机等商品价格在1月出现上涨，表明通胀仍在对饱受价格上涨困扰 的美国消费者构成压力。(完) 美国1月CPI同比上涨2.4% 中新社华盛顿2月13日电 (记者 陈孟统)美国劳工部13日发布数据称，美国2026年1月消费者价格指数 (CPI)同比上涨2.4%，环比上涨0.2%。 剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，当月核心CPI同比上涨2.5%，环比上涨0.3%。 美联社指出，由于公寓租金涨幅放缓、汽油价格下跌，美国的通胀压力在1月降至接近五年来的最低水 平。核心CPI同比数据创造了自2021年3月以来的最小涨幅。 从环比数据看，住房价格指数(上涨0.2%)是当月推动美国物价指数上涨的最大因素。食品价格指数上涨 0.2%，能源价格指数则下降1.5%。其中汽油价格下降3.2%。 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：王永乐 广告等商务合作，请点击这 ...

古尔斯比与美联储部分同僚近期均表示，当前美国就业市场已呈现出更为稳定的特征，就业端的风险已得到阶段性缓和。本周稍早公布的报告也印证了这一 点——1月份美国招聘活动保持平稳，进一步强化了政策制定者对就业市场稳定的判断。 古尔斯比反复表达了对服务价格通胀的担忧，而这一担忧也得到了同期数据的支撑。就在其表态当天早些时候公布的数据显示，1月份美国服务类价格再度 出现加速上涨的态势，成为通胀难以快速回落的重要原因。尽管当月整体物价同比上涨2.4%，涨幅略低于市场预期，但这种结构性的通胀压力并未得到明 显缓解，仍对政策调整形成制约。 从美联储近期的政策动作来看，上月的议息会议已决定维持当前利率水平不变。回顾过往，美联储在2025年末曾连续三次降息，核心目的是应对当时劳动力 市场走弱的迹象，为经济稳定提供支撑。而如今，政策逻辑已发生微妙变化。 近日，美国芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比的公开表态，为市场解读美联储后续货币政策走向提供了关键线索。其核心观点明确：美联储并非没有进一步降息的可 能，但这一动作的前提，是通胀必须明确回归向2%目标回落的轨道，而目前这一条件尚未满足。 古尔斯比在周五接受采访时坦言，从政策空间来看，利率仍有下调 ...