Group 1 - The commodity market experienced a broad increase, with spot gold and silver prices reaching historical highs, while both WTI and Brent crude oil saw significant gains [1] - Spot gold peaked at $4634.58 per ounce, and spot silver surged over 4%, surpassing the $89 per ounce mark. COMEX silver also hit a new high of $89.215 per ounce [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 rose by 2.7% year-on-year, matching the previous month's increase but exceeding market expectations [4] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.2% month-on-month and showed a year-on-year growth of 2.6% before seasonal adjustments [4] - Following the CPI data release, traders increased bets on an earlier interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a rate cut in April rising to approximately 42% from 38% prior to the data [4] - However, market analysts believe that the CPI data is not sufficient to prompt an immediate rate cut by the Federal Reserve, as officials may seek more evidence of stabilizing inflation before making a decision [4] Group 3 - President Trump announced that any country conducting business with Iran will face a 25% tariff on any commercial dealings with the U.S., stating this decision is "final" and "effective immediately" [5]

2025年12月，美国未季调CPI年率2.7%，预期2.7%，前值2.7%；季调后CPI月率0.3%，预期0.3%。美国 未季调核心CPI年率2.6%，预期2.7%，前值2.6%；季调后核心CPI月率0.2%，预期0.3%。 尽管交易员们仍认为，6月降息是最可能的结果，但利率期货市场定价显示，美联储4月降息的概率约为 42%，高于通胀数据发布前的38%。 纽约联储总裁约翰·威廉姆斯称，尽管当前通胀受关税等因素影响有所上行，但潜在趋势有利，并未出 现广泛的物价压力。他预计，通胀率可能在2026年上半年达到峰值，随后逐渐放缓，并有望在2027年回 落至2%的目标水平。关税对通胀的影响预计将在2026年开始减弱。抛开这一暂时性因素，通胀趋势总 体向好。 威廉姆斯还表示，当前美国劳动力市场并未出现快速恶化迹象，预计今年将趋于稳定并逐步走强。他同 时指出，随着通胀风险减弱，就业市场面临的下行风险正在上升。他强调，美联储必须在控制通胀的同 时，避免对就业造成过度冲击。 新华财经北京1月13日电美国劳工部周二公布的数据显示，2025年12月通胀总体温和。核心通胀略低于 预期，交易员们加大了美联储降息押注，美元指数短线下跌。 ...

据路透社1月7日报道，克罗地亚中央统计局1月7日初步数据显示，2025年12月消费者价格指数 （CPI）同比上涨3.3%，较11月的3.8%明显放缓，为全年最低水平之一。全年平均通胀率为3.7%。分项 来看，服务业通胀最高（+6.3%），能源上涨3.9%，食品、饮料和烟草类上涨3.1%，而工业非食品类商 品仅微涨0.1%。环比方面，服务价格上涨0.3%，其余三大类均下降约0.7%–0.8%。 （原标题：克罗地亚12月通胀显著回落至3.3%，全年通胀率为3.7%） 欧盟统计局同日发布的协调通胀指数（HICP）显示克罗地亚12月通胀为3.8%，略高于克统计局数 据。在欧元区，克罗地亚通胀排名第四，仅次于斯洛伐克和爱沙尼亚（均为4.1%）及奥地利 （3.9%），高于欧元区平均2%的水平。 ...

专题：美12月核心CPI同比增2.6%，低于预期 美国最新的通胀报告未能改变市场对美联储将暂停降息的预期，美股开盘基本持平。 美国三大股指基本持平。标普500指数在6，980点附近徘徊。数据显示物价压力正逐步缓解，短暂安抚 了投资者情绪，但随着交易时段的推进，各类资产的波动逐渐消退。美国国债价格基本持平。自去年9 月以来美联储已三次降息，货币市场仍预测下次降息将在2026年中期，且本月末没有降息的可能。 eToro分析师Bret Kenwell指出，政府停摆后发布的通胀报告为市场提供了亟需的新宏观经济信息。然 而，该数据对股市投资者影响不大，投资者关注焦点或将转向即将开始的财报季。 另外，摩根大通周二启动了银行业财报季，美国银行、富国银行、花旗集团、高盛集团和摩根士丹利预 计将于周三和周四陆续公布业绩。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：刘明亮 专题：美12月核心CPI同比增2.6%，低于预期 美国最新的通胀报告未能改变市场对美联储将暂停降息的预期，美股开盘基本持平。 美国三大股指基本持平。标普500指数在6，980点附近徘徊。数据显示物价压力正逐步缓解，短暂安抚 了投资者情绪，但随着交易时段 ...

Group 1 - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, both figures below market expectations by 0.1 percentage points, indicating a continued cooling of inflation [1][15][20] - The overall CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, aligning perfectly with Dow Jones consensus expectations, suggesting that inflation is gradually approaching the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [2][16][20] - Housing prices, a key component of core inflation, increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year, contributing significantly to the overall inflation rise [5][19] Group 2 - Food prices rose by 0.7% month-on-month, although egg prices fell by 8.2% month-on-month and nearly 21% year-on-year, following a previous surge [7][21] - Energy prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.3% year-on-year, while gasoline prices decreased by 0.5% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year [8][22] - The entertainment price index surged by 1.2% month-on-month, marking the largest single-month increase since 1993 [12][26] Group 3 - The report indicates that some categories, particularly goods, are showing signs of deflation, with used car and truck prices down by 1.1% month-on-month and communication prices down by 1.9% [12][26] - Actual wages for American citizens remained flat month-on-month but increased by 1.1% year-on-year, reflecting the impact of the December price increases [13][27]

住房指数环比上涨0.4%，同比上涨3.2%，是推动月度CPI上涨的最大单一因素，其中业主等价租金与实 际租金均环比上涨0.3%，异地住宿环比涨幅达2.9%。能源指数环比上涨0.3%，同比上涨2.3%，管道燃 气服务环比大涨4.4%，同比涨幅高达10.8%，而汽油价格环比下降0.5%，同比下跌3.4%，部分抵消了能 源服务的上涨压力。 转自：新华财经 新华财经北京1月13日电 (王晓伟）美国劳工统计局（BLS）发布数据显示，2025年12月美国城市消费者 价格指数（CPI-U）经季节性调整后环比上涨0.3%，同比上涨2.7%，与11月同比涨幅持平，通胀水平保 持稳定。核心CPI（剔除食品和能源）环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨2.6%，显示剔除波动因素后的物价走势 温和。 12月食品指数环比上涨0.7%，同比上涨3.1%。其中，家庭食品与外出就餐价格同步环比上涨0.7%，家 庭食品同比上涨2.4%，外出就餐同比涨幅更高达4.1%。细分品类中，乳制品环比上涨0.9%，其他家庭 食品环比上涨1.6%，而肉类、家禽、鱼类和蛋类指数环比微降0.2%，鸡蛋价格环比大幅下跌8.2%。 环比上涨的品类包括娱乐（1.2%，创1993 ...

2022 年 6 月，伊利诺伊州绍姆堡市一家商店内，一名顾客正在查看商品价签。 美国 12 月通胀水平依旧处于高位，为全年居高难下的物价走势画上句号，这也成了唐纳德・特朗普总 统面临的一大政治负担。 美国劳工统计局今日发布的最新数据显示，11 月至 12 月物价环比上涨 0.3%，与 9 月的环比涨幅持 平。整体来看，物价较去年同期上涨 2.7%。 来源：环球市场播报 12 月各类生活必需品价格普遍上涨。食品价格涨幅尤为显著，环比上涨 0.7%，是整体通胀涨幅的两倍 以上；燃气公用事业价格环比飙升 4.4%。住房、交通、医疗保健及服装等品类价格同样出现较大涨 幅。不过，二手车价格环比下降 1.1%，汽油价格环比下跌 0.5%。 此前受政府停摆事件影响，通胀数据发布一度陷入混乱，因此这份 12 月报告也成了数月来最能清晰反 映美国通胀现状的一份数据。由于联邦政府停摆，10 月的消费者物价指数报告未能如期发布；11 月报 告虽显示通胀意外降温，但数据采集延迟等停摆相关因素，已严重干扰了该份报告的准确性。 巴克莱投资银行美国经济学家普贾・斯里拉姆表示："尽管通胀数据存在诸多干扰因素，但我们正以与 年初相近的通胀水平 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in December 2025, while the core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 2.6% [1] - Morgan Stanley's analysis indicates that the inflation data for December may contain "technical noise" due to the prolonged government shutdown, potentially diminishing its value in predicting the Federal Reserve's future policy direction [1] - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have arisen amid a criminal investigation involving its chairman, Jerome Powell [1] Economic Indicators - The job market in the U.S. is currently experiencing weak hiring, yet persistent inflation concerns may compel the Federal Reserve to be more cautious in deciding whether to ease monetary policy in 2026 [1] - According to the CME Group's "FedWatch Tool," there is a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at its upcoming meeting this month [1]

Core Insights - The December core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. increased by 2.6% year-on-year, which is below market expectations, reinforcing the outlook for continued cooling of inflation [1][3] - The core CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, while the overall CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [1][3] Inflation Data - The U.S. Labor Department reported that housing costs were the largest contributor to the monthly inflation increase, rising by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [4] - Food prices rose by 0.7% month-on-month in December, while entertainment, airfare, and healthcare prices also saw increases [5] - Entertainment prices surged by 1.2% month-on-month, marking the largest single-month increase since records began in 1993 [5]

美联储官员目前在应该更担心通胀还是就业市场风险的问题上存在分歧。他们将仔细审视周二的这份报告，以评估企业在多大程度上将与关税相关的成本增 加转嫁给了消费者。 美国劳工部周二表示，美国12月CPI同比上涨2.7%，与去年11月持平。剔除波动较大的食品和能源成本后，核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，也与去年11月持平。二 者均低于市场预期。 经季节性调整后的12月CPI环比上涨0.3%，符合经济学家的预期；12月核心CPI环比上涨0.2%。经济学家此前预计该数据将上涨0.3%。 数据公布后，现货黄金短线走高超10美元，并一度站上4620美元；现货白银盘中一度大涨3%；美元指数急跌后小幅反弹。 12月的CPI报告为这一年画上了句号。尽管特朗普政府在2025年初宣布对进口商品征收高额关税，但这一年的通胀表现比许多人预测的要温和。通胀确实在 夏季有所回升，但幅度并不明显。 尽管如此，经济学家仍有兴趣观察1月和2月的通胀表现，因为许多企业会在年初调整价格。经济学家的共识是，今年通胀可能会继续沿着曲折下行的路径发 展，尽管途中可能会有颠簸。 RSM首席经济学家Joseph Brusuelas认为，《大而美法案》带来的减税措施可能 ...