要理解这事儿有多离谱，得先搞懂一个专业知识点：美联储理事不是 "总统的打工仔"。 声明：本文内容均是根据权威资料，结合个人观点撰写的原创内容，文中及文末已标注文献 来源及截图，请知悉 根据 1913 年《联邦储备法案》，美联储理事任期长达 14 年，而且任期交错，就是为了防止总统随便干 预 —— 毕竟央行要管利率、稳通胀，得像医生治病一样 "客观冷静"，不能被总统的政治需求 "逼着开 错药"。 美国最近的经济圈，活像一场没按剧本演的真人秀 —— 前有特朗普对着美联储 "指手画脚"，后有他突 然 "解雇" 美联储理事莉萨・库克，还放话要找 "100% 光明磊落的人" 接盘，甚至惦记着把白宫经济顾 问塞去美联储占位置。 莉萨・库克 2022 年才上任，按规矩得干到 2036 年，结果特朗普一句 "涉嫌住房抵押贷款欺诈" 就想解 雇她，这操作跟 "租客签了 14 年租房合同，房东突然说'你违规了，明天搬走'" 一样荒唐。 这波操作，看得全球投资者都捏了把汗：美联储这颗美国经济的 "定海神针"，难不成要被特朗普改成 "竞选工具"？ 今天咱们就扒一扒，这场 "解雇风暴" 背后藏着多少政治算计，又会给美国经济、甚至全球市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential negative consequences of former President Trump's attempts to influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, which could undermine the Fed's independence and exacerbate inflation, contrary to his campaign promises to combat it [1][2]. Economic Overheating Risks - Artificially lowering interest rates may lead to economic overheating and increased inflation, which is the very issue Trump aims to address. Low borrowing costs can stimulate demand excessively, resulting in too many dollars chasing too few goods, a situation that contributed to inflation reaching a 40-year high post-COVID-19 [2]. Mortgage Rate Concerns - If investors become concerned about the Fed's independence and its commitment to controlling inflation, market panic could ensue. This could lead to higher long-term interest rates, including mortgage rates, which are already around 7%, worsening the housing affordability crisis [3]. Historical Lessons from Nixon - Historical precedents show that interference with central banks can lead to disastrous outcomes. President Nixon pressured the Fed to adopt expansionary monetary policies before the 1972 election, resulting in runaway inflation that peaked above 13% by 1980, leading to a period known as "stagflation" [4]. Lessons from Erdogan's Turkey - The recent experience of Turkey under President Erdogan, who dismissed the central bank governor and pressured for rate cuts, resulted in a currency collapse and inflation exceeding 80%. This serves as a cautionary tale about the dangers of political interference in central banking [5].

Core Viewpoint - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have intensified following President Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook, leading to increased demand for put options on 30-year U.S. Treasuries, indicating a bearish outlook on long-term bonds [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - There has been a notable increase in demand for long-term Treasury put options, with the skew reaching its highest level in nearly two weeks, reflecting a bearish sentiment [1] - The yield spread between 30-year and 5-year Treasuries has widened to the highest level since 2021, indicating that 30-year Treasuries are underperforming compared to shorter maturities [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - Following Fed Chair Powell's hint at potential rate cuts to support the labor market, the yield curve has steepened, with investors favoring curve steepener trades [3] - Market speculation suggests that Trump may appoint a more dovish policymaker to replace Cook, which could lower short-term rates but risk increasing long-term inflation expectations [1][3] Group 3: Investor Positioning - According to JPMorgan's Treasury All-Client Positioning Survey, net long positions in U.S. Treasuries have decreased by 2 percentage points, shifting to a neutral stance, while net short positions remain unchanged [5][6]

转自：期货日报 2025年1—7月，国际铜价在美国"232"调查以及"对等关税"政策的双重影响下，走势一波三折，政策的 不确定性对铜价的扰动极为显著。展望下半年，关税政策的不确定性对铜价的扰动或不如上半年明显， 铜定价的核心因素将更多地回归宏观面与基本面。 此外，美国制造业及房地产行业也出现了不同程度的走弱迹象：美国制造业PMI自年初以来持续下滑， 3月起便一直处于收缩区间，制造业景气度低迷；美国NAHB地产指数自年初以来也一直在回落，7月 NAHB指数为33，处于较低水平。 在经济走弱的过程中，美联储通常会同步开启降息进程，然而今年特朗普上任后，大力推行进口关税政 策，关税推高了进口商品成本，加重了美国企业和消费者的负担。因此，关税政策是否会加剧通胀，成 为美联储是否重新开启降息的关键考量因素。 目前，美联储对后续降息路径仍保持观望状态，既没有明确地释放出降息信号，也没有排除降息的可能 性。在9月会议召开之前，美联储会收到两份关于就业和通胀的报告（7月和8月），这两份报告决定9月 议息会议的决策以及后续的降息路径。 从通胀的实际表现来看，美国CPI同比在1—4月期间逐渐走低，自5月开始出现回升。具体到分项来 ...

Group 1 - The new BIS president, Pablo Hernández de Cos, emphasized the importance of central bank independence for controlling inflation and enhancing public welfare [1][2] - De Cos stated that independence allows central banks to make decisions based on economic considerations without short-term political interference, thus protecting monetary policy from becoming a tool for government financing [1][2] - The recent firing of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump has raised concerns about the independence of the Fed, leading to significant volatility in the U.S. Treasury market [1] Group 2 - De Cos compared clear price stability targets, independence, and accountability to the anchor, hull, and mast of a "monetary policy ship," highlighting the need for a solid legal framework to support central bank independence [2] - He stressed the importance of sustainable fiscal paths for central banks to fulfill their mandates, noting that uncontrolled government debt undermines central bank independence [2] - De Cos identified global challenges such as geopolitical tensions, debt burdens, trade barriers, aging populations, AI impacts, and climate change, emphasizing the need for robust policy frameworks in uncertain times [2]

Core Viewpoint - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to a sell-off of dollar assets and a rise in safe-haven assets like gold [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Trump's announcement, the dollar index fell by 0.3% to 98.187, with the dollar against the yen down 0.4% to 147.24, and the euro rising 0.3% to 1.165 [2]. - U.S. Treasury yields saw a steepening curve, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.2887% and the 30-year yield increasing by 3.3 basis points to 4.922% [2]. - U.S. stock futures declined, impacting major Asia-Pacific indices, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index down 0.2% and the Nikkei index closing down 0.97% [3]. Group 2: Implications for Federal Reserve Independence - Analysts express concerns that Trump's actions undermine the Federal Reserve's independence, which could lead to a loss of credibility for the dollar as a safe investment [3][5]. - The potential for legal battles over Cook's dismissal raises questions about the future of the Federal Reserve's independence and its ability to maintain unbiased monetary policy [5][6]. Group 3: Gold Market Response - Gold prices surged to $3,386.27 per ounce, the highest since August 11, as market participants anticipate increased support for lower interest rates and hedge against long-term inflation risks [4]. Group 4: Political and Economic Perspectives - The political implications of Trump's actions are evident, with mixed reactions from lawmakers reflecting party lines, indicating the event's political nature [6]. - Economically, pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower rates could lead to higher long-term interest rates due to inflation expectations, countering Trump's objectives [7].

高晓峰：8.26美元走弱助推金价，黄金迎来利好环境 受降息预期影响，美元指数显着走弱，黄金的避险与保值价值获得市场重点关注。美联储主席鲍威尔近期的表态缓解了市场对通胀的忧虑，同时为贵金属营 造了有利的宏观环境，看涨情绪持续积聚。 然而短期风险依然存在。美国即将公布的核心PCE物价指数、GDP修正值等多项经济数据可能引发波动。此外，政治层面不确定性以及可能的美联储政策压 力，或将阶段性扰动金价走势。 技术面上，金价于3350关键支撑上方维持偏多格局。3390-3385区间的站稳情况将决定多头反攻力度。操作建议以支撑区域低多为主，激进者可关注3370- 3365附近尝试多单机会，稳健者则等待3355区域布局做多。 文/高晓峰专业国际市场点评 ，本人解读世界经济要闻，剖析全球投资大趋势，对原油、黄金、白银等大宗商品等有深入的研究，以上内容属于个人建议， 因网络发文有时效性，仅供参考，风险自担，实时思路现价给出，如果你做单不顺或投资经常资金缩水，那么你可以添加高晓峰主页进行交流。早7：00┄ 次日凌晨2：00（周末也从不停歇，可供随时咨询) ...

Group 1 - Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to a sell-off of dollar assets and a rise in gold prices [1][4][6] - The dollar index fell by 0.3% to 98.187, with the dollar against the yen down 0.4% to 147.24, and the euro rising 0.3% to 1.165 [4][5] - Market analysts predict that Trump's actions could lead to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with an 84% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September according to CME FedWatch [5][6] Group 2 - Cook has stated that she will not resign and plans to take necessary actions to prevent Trump's "illegal actions," asserting that he lacks the authority to dismiss her [2][8] - The potential legal battle over Cook's dismissal could test the Supreme Court's stance on the independence of the Federal Reserve, as past rulings have protected such officials from arbitrary dismissal [7][9] - Analysts express that Trump's actions could undermine the credibility of the dollar as a safe investment, which has historically been based on the Federal Reserve's independence [5][7]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Japanese government bond market is experiencing a significant sell-off, with the 10-year bond yield reaching 1.627%, the highest since October 2008 [1][3] - The 10-year bond futures have fallen to their lowest level since 2009, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [1][3] - The 30-year bond yield has also surged to 3.235%, surpassing the previous high of 3.2% set in July [4] Group 2: Factors Influencing the Market - Investors are concerned about potential new fiscal stimulus measures from the Japanese government, which could lead to a substantial increase in bond issuance [4] - Ongoing inflation in Japan is diminishing the appeal of fixed-income assets and reinforcing expectations for tighter monetary policy from the Bank of Japan [4][8] - The recent comments from the Bank of Japan Governor indicate a growing likelihood of interest rate hikes due to rising wages and tightening labor market conditions [9] Group 3: Foreign Investment Trends - There has been a notable decline in demand for Japanese government bonds from foreign investors, with net purchases of long-term bonds dropping to 480 billion yen (approximately 3.3 billion USD) in July, only one-third of June's purchases [5][6] - The decrease in foreign investment is raising concerns about potential instability in the long end of the yield curve [6] Group 4: Budget Implications - The Japanese Ministry of Finance plans to request 32.3865 trillion yen (approximately 1.57 trillion RMB) for debt servicing in the 2026 budget, an increase of about 4 trillion yen compared to the previous year's record budget [6] - The "interest payment" portion of the debt servicing is expected to rise by 24% to 13.0435 trillion yen, while the "debt repayment" portion will increase by 9.3% to 19.3104 trillion yen [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the shifting dynamics in salary growth between different sectors, particularly emphasizing that the hospitality and healthcare industries are experiencing higher wage increases compared to traditional white-collar jobs, which are struggling to keep pace with inflation [2][3][4]. - Since 2021, the hospitality sector has seen a salary increase of nearly 30%, exceeding inflation by over 4%, while healthcare workers have experienced a salary growth of approximately 25% over the past four years [2]. - In contrast, professionals in business services, finance, and education are facing salary growth that lags behind inflation, with teachers' salaries growing nearly 5% less than inflation [2][5]. Group 2 - Despite the higher salary growth in the hospitality sector, it is unlikely that Generation Z will flock to jobs in bars or coffee shops, as entry-level tech positions still offer relatively higher pay, averaging $19.57 per hour compared to the $16 per hour for baristas [3][4]. - The white-collar job market is experiencing a slowdown in hiring, particularly in finance and professional services, with companies like Meta halting recruitment in their AI departments after a period of aggressive hiring [4]. - The education sector is noted to have the largest salary gap compared to inflation, and even those fortunate enough to secure tech jobs may face obstacles in career advancement, as promotion rates have declined from a peak of 14.6% in May 2022 to 10.3% in May 2025 [5].