北京时间1月1日凌晨，美股周三尾盘小幅走低，标普500指数可能录得连续第四个交易日下滑。美股交 易进入2025年的最后一个交易日，标普500指数今年有望录得17%的涨幅。 道指跌151.69点，跌幅为0.31%，报48215.37点；纳指跌86.77点，跌幅为0.37%，报23332.31点；标普 500指数跌23.28点，跌幅为0.34%，报6872.96点。 主要股指均有可能迎来连续第四个交易日下跌。但尽管如此，标普500指数仍有望锁定全年17%的涨 幅，这是其连续第三年实现两位数的年度涨幅。 纳斯达克综合指数受益于人工智能热潮，今年迄今已上涨21%。 道指在2025年上涨13%，其涨幅落后的主要原因是其科技股的权重较低而略受拖累。 这标志着市场从今年4月初美国总统特朗普宣布全面提高关税引发的暴跌之后实现了显著反弹。今年4月 特朗普突然宣布关税措施后，标普500指数一度濒临进入熊市，较2月高点下跌近19%，并自2024年4月 以来首次收于5000点下方。 尽管如此，近期美股的下跌仍有些令人担忧，因为一年中最后五个交易日以及下一年的前两个交易日通 常是季节性表现强劲的时期——常被称为"圣诞老人涨势"（San ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market opened slightly higher but turned negative, with the Dow Jones down 0.24%, S&P 500 down 0.22%, and Nasdaq down 0.24% as of the report [1] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to one of the lowest levels of the year, with a decrease of 16,000 to 199,000, compared to an economist median estimate of 218,000 [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes revealed significant internal disagreements, with a 9-3 vote to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75% [2] - Most officials believe further rate cuts will be appropriate if inflation decreases as expected, while some argue that rates should remain unchanged for a period [2] - Traders are maintaining bets on two rate cuts in 2026, down from an earlier expectation of three [2] Group 3 - UBS strategists predict a 10% year-over-year increase in S&P 500 earnings, with the index expected to rise to 7,700 points by the end of next year [3] - Sanctuary Wealth's chief investment strategist forecasts that technology stocks will continue to lead the market until 2030, with the S&P 500 potentially reaching between 10,000 and 13,000 points by then [3] - Wilmington Trust anticipates a slight increase in market volatility next year [3] Group 4 - Trump Media Technology Group's stock rose over 7% in early trading, later narrowing its gains, as the company announced plans to distribute new digital tokens to shareholders [4] - The company also launched five exchange-traded funds (ETFs) focused on "America First" themes, investing in sectors like commercial real estate, energy, defense, and technology [4] - Trump Mobile has delayed the delivery of its gold smartphone due to a recent government shutdown, indicating that shipments may not occur this month [4] Group 5 - Most popular Chinese concept stocks declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down nearly 1%, and individual stocks like NIO down nearly 8% and XPeng down over 5% [4]

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy faced initial predictions of recession or "stagflation" following Trump's global tariff plan, with a GDP contraction of 0.6% in Q1, but rebounded with a growth rate of 3.8% in Q2 and 4.3% from July to September [1][5] - If the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model's prediction of 3% growth for Q4 holds true, the annual growth rate could reach 2.8%, surpassing the consensus forecast of 2.1% [1][5] Inflation and Consumer Prices - Inflation has stabilized, with a decrease to 2.7% in November, despite ongoing consumer dissatisfaction with high prices [1][5] - Consumer prices increased by approximately 2% during Trump's first year, compared to a 6% increase during Biden's first year [6] Trade Deficit and Tariff Impact - The trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed to $52.8 billion in September, the lowest level since June 2020, attributed to a significant increase in exports and a slight rise in imports [7][8] - Trump attributes these improvements to the administration's trade measures, claiming a 60% reduction in the trade deficit and significant GDP growth [8] Employment Trends - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest since September 2021, raising concerns about potential negative impacts on employment due to economic uncertainty [8] Future Economic Outlook - Economists express cautious optimism for 2026, with Goldman Sachs predicting a growth rate of 2.6% and BNP Paribas forecasting a consensus of 1.9% [9] - Factors supporting this outlook include fiscal stimulus from the "Inflation Reduction Act," ongoing AI capital expenditures, and a reduction in the trade deficit [9][10] Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement at least one more rate cut in 2026, following three cuts in 2025, which may positively influence the economy [10] - The focus is on the Fed's ability to manage interest rate signals amid inflation concerns, with potential impacts from the anticipated replacement of the current chair [10] Economic Contributions and Risks - Continued advancements in AI, a bullish stock market forecast, and strong household balance sheets may contribute positively to GDP [10] - Despite the optimistic outlook, there are warnings of potential risks that could arise in the economic landscape [11]

宇树科技（Unitree）的G1人形机器人KOID回答，"只有时间才能证明"当前的人工智能（AI）热潮是否 真的是泡沫。近日，这台会走路、会说话的机器人称，AI泡沫的争论确实是一个"热门话题"，但对于这 场热潮是否预示着泡沫即将破裂，KOID给出了中立的展望。 ...

2025.12.31 本文字数：1767，阅读时长大约3分钟 2025年末，美元指数即将录得2017年以来最大的年度跌幅。 结合衍生品市场情况，市场预计，明年伴随美联储继续降息、特朗普干预美联储等因素，美元还将继续 走弱。 8年来最差年度走势 今年，衡量美元对一篮子主要货币的美元指数下跌9.5%，即将录得8年来最大年度跌幅。今年4月，美 国总统特朗普所谓的"对等关税"引发了投资者对美国经济和美元霸权地位、避险资产地位的担忧和质 疑。当时，美元指数一度下跌15%。欧元对美元汇率在主要货币中涨幅最大，年度飙升近14%，至1.17 美元以上，上一次欧元达到这一水平还是在2021年。 德意志银行的外汇研究全球主管萨瓦罗斯（George Saravelos）甚至表示："这是美元与黄金脱钩、实施 自由浮动汇率的半个世纪多以来，美元表现最糟糕的一年。"在4月大幅下跌后，美元一度收复部分失 地，但美联储9月恢复降息，使其重新面临压力。 商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）的最新数据显示，12月9日开始，交易员就转而重新做空美元，为今年10 月以来首次做空。 期权定价也变得更加负面，期权交易员对美元的看跌程度达到三个月来最高水平。存 ...

2025.12. 31 本文字数：1767，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 后歆桐 机构Pioneer Investments的分析师亚帕哈雅（Paresh Upadhyaya）表示："我对2026年的展望 是美元熊市将继续，但跌幅可能会小于今年。" 2026年还将继续下跌 2025年末，美元指数即将录得2017年以来最大的年度跌幅。 结合衍生品市场情况，市场预计，明年伴随美联储继续降息、特朗普干预美联储等因素，美元还将继 续走弱。 8年来最差年度走势 今年，衡量美元对一篮子主要货币的美元指数下跌9.5%，即将录得8年来最大年度跌幅。今年4月， 美国总统特朗普所谓的"对等关税"引发了投资者对美国经济和美元霸权地位、避险资产地位的担忧 和质疑。当时，美元指数一度下跌15%。欧元对美元汇率在主要货币中涨幅最大，年度飙升近 14%，至1.17美元以上，上一次欧元达到这一水平还是在2021年。 德意志银行的外汇研究全球主管萨瓦罗斯（George Saravelos）甚至表示："这是美元与黄金脱 钩、实施自由浮动汇率的半个世纪多以来，美元表现最糟糕的一年。"在4月大幅下跌后，美元一度 收复部分失地，但美联储9月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The erosion of the fundamental basis of the US dollar's dominance, influenced by factors such as Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve's actions, is expected to lead to a prolonged period of dollar weakness, with significant implications for global markets and economies [1][6]. Group 1: Dollar Performance and Market Expectations - The dollar index is set to record its largest annual decline since 2017, with a drop of 9.5% this year, marking the worst performance in eight years [3]. - Following Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" in April, the dollar index experienced a significant drop of 15%, raising concerns about the US economy and the dollar's status as a safe-haven asset [3]. - Traders have begun to short the dollar for the first time since October, with options pricing reflecting a heightened bearish sentiment towards the dollar [3]. Group 2: Future Projections and Central Bank Policies - Analysts predict that the dollar bear market will continue into 2026, albeit with potentially smaller declines compared to this year, as the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates again [4]. - The divergence in monetary policy, with the Fed remaining accommodative while other central banks, like the European Central Bank, may hold rates steady or even increase them, is likely to further pressure the dollar [4][5]. - By the end of 2026, the euro is expected to strengthen to 1.20 USD, while the British pound may rise from 1.33 USD to 1.36 USD [5]. Group 3: Impact on Global Markets and Investor Behavior - The weak dollar has mixed effects; it benefits US exporters but poses challenges for European companies operating in the US market [5]. - Concerns about the potential for a new Fed chair to implement aggressive rate cuts at the behest of the White House could lead to further dollar depreciation [5]. - The ongoing strength of the US economy, as indicated by a 4.3% annualized GDP growth rate in Q3, may counterbalance some of the bearish sentiment towards the dollar, potentially leading to a rebound [7].

趣图: 程序员合法摸鱼的最佳理由出 新了 文科生不必焦虑，AI 先干掉的是计算机专业的学生！ ↓↓↓ 往期趣图 （点击下方图片可跳转阅读） ...

Group 1: Economic Predictions - Trump's average tariff levels are expected to decrease by the end of the year due to various pressures, including stock market declines and rising consumer prices [2] - Global central banks, excluding Japan, are likely to continue lowering interest rates, with the Federal Reserve potentially leading this trend [5] - The price of gold is predicted to exceed $5,000 per ounce, driven by central bank purchases and as a hedge against fiscal deficits and geopolitical tensions [7] Group 2: Political Landscape - Ukrainian President Zelensky is not expected to be forced to abandon the Donbas region as part of any peace agreement, due to military and political risks [3] - In the U.S., the Democratic Party is predicted to regain control of the House of Representatives in the midterm elections, which would allow them to block Trump's agenda [12] - In the Middle East, the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel is unlikely without a clear path to Palestinian statehood, as emphasized by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman [13] Group 3: Technology and Market Trends - The AI bubble is anticipated to burst in 2026, with investors becoming more critical of tech giants, although larger diversified companies may weather the storm better than smaller firms [4] - Quantum computers are not expected to be commercially viable by 2026, but significant progress is being made in the field [8] - Tesla's market share is projected to continue declining in the U.S., EU, and China, as competition increases and Musk focuses on AI investments rather than traditional automotive business [9] Group 4: Financial Sector Insights - An increase in private credit defaults is expected, as higher interest rates challenge companies that borrowed heavily during low-rate periods [6] - The emergence of household robots is anticipated, although their functionality will be limited and they will primarily target affluent early adopters [10]

Core Viewpoint - Apple is adopting a cautious approach in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector, which may provide a significant competitive advantage by 2026 [1][3]. Group 1: AI Strategy - Apple has slowed down the release of AI features after initially promising a new context-aware Siri at the 2024 WWDC, focusing instead on user interface innovations for 2025 [3]. - The company has significantly reduced its marketing efforts related to AI technology compared to competitors like Meta and Google, which are investing billions in AI infrastructure [3]. - Apple's conservative spending has allowed it to maintain a cash reserve of approximately $130 billion for future AI investments or acquisitions [3]. Group 2: Collaboration and Development - Apple plans to integrate Google's Gemini technology into its upcoming AI features set to launch in 2026, which reduces R&D risks and preserves resources for potential strategic acquisitions [3][4]. - The internal AI team is exploring the possibility of developing proprietary models, but some executives believe the commercial rationale for long-term investment in self-developed models is diminishing as LLM technology becomes more commoditized [4]. Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - The iPhone remains an ideal platform for deploying AI features due to its integrated hardware and software ecosystem, giving Apple a unique advantage in delivering AI functionalities [4]. - Although Apple's current "steady and cautious" strategy may make it appear behind in the short-term AI race, it could achieve a better balance between technological maturity, user experience, and commercial sustainability [4].