编辑|小夜 12月18日，美国财政部公布的一组数据引发了全球金融圈的关注。 数据显示，中国10月份减持了118亿美元美国国债，持仓直接跌到6887亿美元，这是2008年以来的最低 纪录。 这个数据更像一场早有预谋的"战略调整"，而非一时兴起的操作。 从1.3万亿到6887亿，中国持美债的"退烧"之路 2013年的时候，中国持有美债的规模达到过1.3万亿美元的峰值，算是美国最核心的海外债主之一。 那时候中美之间有种很特别的平衡状态，简单说就是中国出口商品赚美元，赚来的美元又拿去买美债， 帮美国填补财政赤字。 文|围炉 美国则靠发国债维持高消费，还借着美元霸权收割全球财富。 但这种平衡的根基其实是双方的合作互信，一旦信任没了，一切就都变了。 转折点出现在2018年，特朗普政府直接挥舞关税大棒，对中国发起贸易战，还喊着要减少5000亿美元贸 易逆差的口号。 更让人不舒服的是，美国一边在贸易上施压，一边还动用金融霸权的手段，一会儿制裁中国企业，一会 儿威胁要切断SWIFT通道，甚至还操纵美元汇率波动。 在这种情况下，中国手里的美债就成了应对博弈的关键筹码，继续大量持有显然并非明智之举。 所以从2022年4月开始，变化 ...

彭博新闻社网站日前报道，截至12月中旬，今年"点心债"发行总额约为8700亿元人民币，已经超过2024 年创纪录的全年发行总量，连续8年实现增长。这一发行热潮是人民币在全球金融市场越来越受欢迎的 最新证明。 人民币国际化近期为何提速？分析人士指出，人民币国际化提速可看作是三股力量的叠加结果——"贸 易与产业基础"是根本，"制度与市场工具"是加速器，"全球货币体系变化"则提供了外部窗口。 首先，贸易与产业结构是底层支撑。中国在全球供应链中的地位持续稳固，外贸规模不断扩大，使用人 民币结算成为降低交易成本的有效选择。 德国法兰克福金融管理学院教授霍斯特·勒歇尔接受新华社记者采访时说，人民币国际化加速主要由贸 易功能驱动。中国外贸保持增长，特别是与全球南方国家的贸易增长。越来越多此类贸易直接通过人民 币结算，是人民币国际化向前发展的重要动力。 其次，从签署或续签双边本币互换协议，到优化人民币清算行布局，再到人民币跨境支付系统 （CIPS）拓展覆盖范围，人民币相关金融基础设施与制度安排不断优化，成为人民币国际化的重要支 撑。 跨境使用规模稳步增长，债券投融资受到青睐，离岸人民币市场不断升温……今年以来，人民币国际化 ...

新华社北京12月21日电 新闻分析｜人民币国际化加速前进的"三重驱动" 新华社记者杜静 跨境使用规模稳步增长，债券投融资受到青睐，离岸人民币市场不断升温……今年以来，人民币国际化 不断取得积极进展，受到海外广泛关注和积极评价。 国际航空运输协会11月初宣布将人民币纳入其清算系统的可结算货币名单，允许全球航空公司与航空供 应商以人民币进行结算。今年年中，埃及宣布允许中国企业使用人民币在埃及注册公司。 人民币在跨境贸易投资领域正获得更广泛使用。据中国人民银行最新发布的《人民币国际化报告 （2025）》，2025年上半年，银行代客人民币跨境收付金额合计为34.9万亿元，同比增长14.0%。人民 币已成为全球第二大贸易融资货币；按全口径计算，人民币为全球第三大支付货币。 与此同时，人民币债券投融资受到国际市场青睐。今年4月，中国财政部在英国伦敦发行首笔60亿元人 民币绿色主权债券，总申购金额是发行金额的6.9倍。高认购倍数印证了国际投资者对中国主权债券的 认可。10月，中国银行伦敦分行发行全球首笔以英镑和离岸人民币双币种计价的绿色债券。 彭博新闻社网站日前报道，截至12月中旬，今年"点心债"发行总额约为8700亿元人 ...

Group 1 - China sold $25.7 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds in one month, reducing its holdings to $730.7 billion, the lowest level since 2009, and a decline of over 40% from the peak of $1.3 trillion in January 2013 [1] - A bipartisan delegation from the U.S. Congress visited Beijing on September 21, 2025, to discuss the possibility of China pausing or slowing down its bond sales, marking the first visit by a House delegation since 2019 [1] - China's bond reduction is part of a continuous trend since April 2022, with significant reductions of $173.2 billion in 2022, $50.8 billion in 2023, and $57.3 billion in 2024, with a cumulative net reduction of $53.7 billion in the first seven months of 2025 [3] Group 2 - In contrast to China's actions, Japan increased its U.S. Treasury holdings to a record $1.147 trillion in June-July 2025, while the UK also raised its holdings to $858.1 billion during the same period [3] - Japan's increase in Treasury holdings is driven by a trade surplus with the U.S. and the higher yields of U.S. bonds compared to its domestic rates, reinforcing economic ties under the U.S.-Japan alliance [3] - The UK's situation is influenced by its role as a global financial hub, with many hedge funds and institutions holding U.S. bonds through UK accounts, alongside the uncertainty post-Brexit and the higher yields of U.S. bonds compared to UK government bonds [5] Group 3 - China's ongoing reduction of U.S. Treasury bonds reflects deep concerns about the U.S. fiscal situation and the credibility of the dollar, especially after Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to Aa1 in May 2025 [5] - The U.S. federal debt has reached $37 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy [5][6] - The U.S. government is increasingly reliant on borrowing to service its debt, leading to heightened repayment pressures, with interest payments surpassing defense spending for the first time in fiscal year 2024 [6] Group 4 - Concurrently, the People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for ten consecutive months, reaching 74.02 million ounces by the end of August 2025, as gold serves as a hedge against dollar risk [8] - Global central banks are also increasing their gold reserves, with a reported increase of 166 tons in Q2 2025, indicating a structural shift in the global reserve system [8] - The internationalization of the renminbi is progressing, with cross-border settlement exceeding 500 billion yuan in 2025 and significant growth in the renminbi's share of cross-border payments [10] Group 5 - China's significant bond sales have impacted global markets, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassing 5%, leading to forced liquidations in hedge funds and affecting approximately $800 billion in related transactions [12] - During the U.S. delegation's visit, former President Trump indicated a willingness to negotiate on various issues, but China emphasized the need for the U.S. to take concrete actions to resolve longstanding issues before financial cooperation could be considered [12] - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with projections indicating that interest payments alone could reach $14 trillion over the next decade, highlighting the deteriorating fiscal situation [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for China to develop a unique "Chinese stablecoin solution" that serves the real economy while ensuring financial security and monetary sovereignty, especially in light of global developments in stablecoin legislation and the recent U.S. "GENIUS Act" [2][3][4]. Group 1: Global Context and Legislative Developments - The U.S. "GENIUS Act," passed on July 17, 2025, is the first federal law specifically addressing payment stablecoins, providing a compliance pathway and signaling the significant impact of digital currencies on global financial governance [3]. - The act aims to maintain the dominance of the U.S. dollar in the cryptocurrency space, requiring stablecoin issuers to hold nearly 80% of reserves in short-term U.S. Treasury securities, thereby creating a substantial and ongoing demand for U.S. debt [3]. - The European Union's MiCA legislation, passed in October 2022, focuses on risk prevention and systemic risk management, contrasting with the U.S. approach [3]. Group 2: Hong Kong's Role and China's Opportunities - Hong Kong is positioned as a testing ground for cryptocurrency policies, aligning with U.S. regulatory dynamics while maintaining its currency peg to the U.S. dollar [4]. - The article advocates for China to leverage experiences from the U.S., EU, and Hong Kong to create a distinct regulatory framework for a "Renminbi stablecoin" that supports the real economy and safeguards financial sovereignty [4][5]. - The approval of the stablecoin regulatory framework in Hong Kong on August 1, 2025, marks a significant step in establishing it as a key financial hub for cryptocurrency in Asia [5]. Group 3: Stablecoin Applications and Trade - Stablecoins are increasingly being utilized in international trade, particularly in regions with volatile currencies, providing a low-cost and efficient payment method [6]. - China's manufacturing sector, which accounts for nearly 30% of global output, and its status as the world's largest trading nation, present a strong case for integrating stablecoins into cross-border payment systems [7]. - The potential for a Renminbi stablecoin to enhance the internationalization of the currency and supplement existing cross-border settlement mechanisms is highlighted [7]. Group 4: Recommendations for Implementation - The article suggests piloting stablecoin applications in Free Trade Zones (FTZs) such as Shenzhen Qianhai and Hainan Free Trade Port to cautiously explore regulatory frameworks [9]. - Specific recommendations include establishing a "cross-border fintech laboratory," creating a stablecoin "white list," and encouraging offshore Renminbi stablecoin trials to facilitate trade and payment efficiency [10][11]. - A focus on building a robust regulatory technology platform and enhancing blockchain infrastructure is essential for effective monitoring and compliance in stablecoin transactions [12]. Group 5: Risk Management and Compliance - The establishment of strict entry requirements for institutions and individuals participating in stablecoin transactions is crucial, limiting participation to compliant entities [13]. - Regular audits of reserve assets by third-party firms and transparent reporting are necessary to ensure the security and adequacy of stablecoin reserves [13]. - A comprehensive risk management framework should be implemented to monitor and mitigate potential compliance and capital flow risks associated with stablecoin usage [14].

Core Viewpoint - Hainan's announcement of full island closure operation on December 18, 2025, represents a strategic move by China to counter global containment efforts, emphasizing openness rather than isolation [1][8][22] Group 1: Policy and Economic Implications - The concept of "closure" in Hainan does not imply isolation but rather a model of "open first, control second," allowing international access while regulating domestic channels [3][6] - Hainan will operate as a special zone with zero tariffs and simplified approvals for international goods, effectively becoming a "domestic outside" area in terms of trade rules [3][6] - The unique policy of "30% value-added processing for domestic sales exempt from tariffs" provides a significant competitive advantage for businesses, allowing them to import raw materials duty-free and sell processed goods to the mainland without tariffs [11][13] Group 2: Strategic Positioning - Hainan is not intended to replace Hong Kong or Singapore; instead, it aims to leverage its vast land and natural resources to focus on sectors like agriculture, deep-sea exploration, aerospace, and high-end manufacturing [15][17] - The region is positioned as a "testbed" for advanced medical devices and data flow, facilitating early access for domestic patients and exploring cross-border digital economy cooperation [19][21] Group 3: Global Context and Future Outlook - Hainan's closure is seen as a significant step comparable to China's WTO accession in 2001, marking a shift from product-level to institutional-level openness, allowing China to participate in international rule-making [22] - The initiative aims to attract global capital, talent, and technology to Hainan, countering efforts to isolate China and reinforcing the country's commitment to globalization [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion on the de-dollarization process emphasizes the necessity of five conditions for the renminbi to potentially replace the US dollar as the primary global settlement currency, as articulated by Xiang Songzuo, who draws from Mundell's theories [2][3]. Group 1: Five Conditions for De-dollarization - The first condition is that the economic scale must be sufficiently large [3]. - The second condition is a strong capability for technological innovation [3]. - The third condition requires a capital market that possesses both breadth and depth [3]. - The fourth condition emphasizes the need for both financial innovation and effective regulation [3]. - The fifth condition is the establishment of a legal system that ensures a secure haven for wealth [3]. Group 2: Mundell's Impossible Trinity - The concept of Mundell's Impossible Trinity suggests that a country cannot simultaneously achieve monetary policy independence, capital mobility, and exchange rate stability; it can only pursue two of these goals at a time [6]. - The US model prioritizes monetary policy independence and capital mobility, allowing the Federal Reserve to adjust interest rates autonomously to respond to domestic economic conditions [8]. - In contrast, the Chinese model focuses on monetary policy independence and relative exchange rate stability, which limits capital mobility and poses challenges for the renminbi's international credibility [9][11]. Group 3: Implications for the Renminbi - The renminbi's status as a currency is hindered by its lack of full convertibility, which is essential for it to be considered a safe haven for wealth [2][11]. - The current discourse should focus on whether the renminbi can open its capital account rather than whether it can replace the dollar as the primary global settlement currency [11].

Group 1 - The article discusses the historical context of China's economic rise and the initial skepticism from Western powers regarding China's potential for growth [1][3] - It highlights the shift in global economic dynamics, where China has transformed from a perceived weak player to a leader in infrastructure and technology, such as high-speed rail and 5G networks [3][9] - The narrative emphasizes China's resilience in the face of external pressures, particularly during the early years of the Cold War when it faced significant trade embargoes and restrictions from the United States [4][5] Group 2 - The article outlines China's strategic responses to trade embargoes, including the establishment of trade relations with socialist countries and the adaptation of its production systems to meet domestic needs [5][7] - It notes the acceleration of domestic technological advancements, particularly in the semiconductor industry, driven by the need for self-sufficiency in the face of external restrictions [8] - The article also discusses the significant changes in trade patterns post-2018, with China shifting its focus from traditional partners in the West to ASEAN countries, reflecting geopolitical shifts [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD, highlighting the factors driving this trend and the outlook for the currency in 2026, emphasizing the importance of external and internal economic conditions [2][3][7]. Group 1: Reasons for RMB Appreciation - The appreciation of the RMB is primarily driven by two forces: the weakening of USD credit and the Federal Reserve's easing policies [3]. - A significant factor supporting the RMB's appreciation is the shift in foreign trade enterprises' willingness to convert their earnings, reversing a three-year trend of reluctance to do so [3]. - The recent capital inflow, particularly after the Fed announced a new easing cycle, has been largely attributed to foreign trade enterprises' increased currency conversion activities [3]. Group 2: Central Bank's Management of Cross-Border Liquidity - The central bank has effectively managed cross-border liquidity by lowering swap market premiums to control the pace of foreign capital inflow and guiding domestic expectations through the midpoint rate [4]. - The goal is to align domestic and foreign pricing with the central bank's expectations, achieving a "three-price unification" [4]. Group 3: Changes in RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - Since April, the negative spread between the RMB midpoint and spot exchange rates has been notable, indicating that the midpoint has been guiding the appreciation of the spot rate [5]. - Seasonal factors, such as increased currency conversion by foreign trade enterprises and overseas workers sending money home before the Lunar New Year, are expected to support the RMB's strength [5]. - The recent shift from a negative to a positive spread between the midpoint and spot rates may reflect adjustments in the central bank's stance [6]. Group 4: Outlook for RMB Exchange Rate in 2026 - The RMB is expected to appreciate gradually in 2026, influenced by the restructuring of the international monetary system and the U.S. government's preference for a weaker dollar [8]. - The narrowing of interest rate differentials between China and the U.S. is likely to support the RMB, as the Fed continues its easing cycle [8]. - Increased internationalization of the RMB, supported by China's competitive manufacturing sector, is anticipated to enhance the currency's attractiveness and stability [8]. Group 5: External Factors and Uncertainties - The impact of U.S.-China tariffs on the RMB is expected to diminish as both economies show resilience under trade pressures [9]. - However, uncertainties remain, including domestic economic stability and external trade relations, which could affect the RMB's performance [12]. - The potential for further depreciation of the USD, driven by the Fed's policies and economic conditions, may also influence the RMB's trajectory [11].

我国通常会在重大自然资源的发现和勘探进展中与国际市场价格紧密联系。最近，我国在山东莱州北部的渤海海域宣布发现了亚洲最大的海底金矿，这一消 息引起了广泛关注，尤其是因为全球金融市场的不确定性不断增加，黄金作为避险资产的需求急剧上升，价格也随之大幅飙升。这一发现的时机无疑让人关 注。 目前，我国对这个金矿的公开信息，可能与2026年全球金融体系的不确定性增加有关系。当前，美国国债已经突破了38万亿美元，而美国每年支付的国债利 息已超过1万亿美元，长期下去这种情况很难持续；与此同时，美国股市中的AI泡沫已接近顶点，AI相关股票吸引了超过20万亿美元的资金，而2026年这一 泡沫是否会破裂，谁也无法预测。日本央行决定加息，而日本经济面临高通胀、低增长的困境，2025年可能会出现负增长，且其政府负债率已经超过 230%。这些因素都可能引发国际金融市场的动荡。作为美国的铁杆盟友，欧盟同样面临经济停滞、能源价格上涨和工业企业外迁等问题。全球不确定性的 增加，导致黄金价格在过去一年半时间里已经翻了一番。 此外，这个金矿位于中国胶东半岛近海，距离美日韩军机和军舰频繁巡航的敏感海域并不远。历史上，日本对东海及黄海大陆架的资源高度 ...