Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE price index for August increased by 2.9% year-on-year, consistent with the previous value, and rose by 0.2% month-on-month, down from a previous increase of 0.3% [2] - The overall PCE price index rose by 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, compared to the previous value of 2.6% [2] - The U.S. consumer spending growth in August slightly exceeded expectations, while the consumer confidence index for September dropped to 55.1, a decrease of about 5% from August [2] Group 2: Gold Market - Gold prices showed a strong upward trend, closing with a significant weekly gain, marking six consecutive weeks of increases, with prices nearing $3800 [3][4] - Concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown have led to increased safe-haven investments in gold, with key support established at the $3760 level [4][6] - The outlook for gold remains bullish, with expectations of reaching $3850 and potentially $3900 in the near term, supported by favorable market conditions [6] Group 3: Silver Market - Silver prices are experiencing a strong bull market, with recent highs indicating a potential target of $100 in the long term [7] - The domestic silver market has also reached historical highs, reflecting a robust bullish trend [7] - Short-term trading strategies suggest maintaining long positions as silver remains strong above the $46 level [7]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has shown strong upward momentum, with a new high of 3791 reached on Tuesday, followed by a slight adjustment and subsequent recovery towards the end of the week, resulting in a six-week consecutive increase in prices [1]. Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The market is expected to be tense next week due to central bank dynamics, seasonal factors, and the risk of a U.S. government shutdown, with a focus on the Federal Reserve's policy path and global economic data [2]. - Multiple Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak next week, discussing economic outlook and monetary policy direction, amidst a divergence between the Fed's "dot plot" indicating only a 25 basis point rate cut by 2026 and market expectations of three rate cuts [3]. - The probability of a U.S. government shutdown is at 66%, which could delay the release of key economic reports, including the non-farm payrolls and CPI, increasing uncertainty in policy decisions [4]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The gold market has shown a clear upward trend, with the current movement being part of a larger five-wave structure that began at 3268, with the third wave currently in progress [6]. - Two potential scenarios for next week's gold price movement are outlined: 1. If gold remains below 3791, it may continue to adjust, with key support levels at 3722 and 3717 needing to be monitored for confirmation of a downward adjustment [7][10]. 2. If gold breaks above 3791, it would indicate a continuation of the upward trend, necessitating a reassessment of the current wave structure [13].

"政治新闻网"称，与会者包括美国国会众议长迈克·约翰逊、参议院共和党领袖约翰·图恩、国会参议院民主党领袖查克·舒默以 及众议院民主党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯。此次会议前不到一周，特朗普曾突然取消与舒默和杰弗里斯的既定会面。 【环球网报道 记者 张倩】美国"政治新闻网"9月27日援引三名匿名知情人士消息报道称，美国总统特朗普将于当地时间29日14 时与国会两党高层会面——此时美国政府已经进入"停摆"危机48小时倒计时。 报道称，据知情人士透露，图恩和舒默曾于26日通话，舒默敦促图恩"促成与特朗普总统的会面，因为政府'停摆'的最后期限迫 在眉睫"。知情人士称，此次电话是由舒默发起的。 据介绍，美国联邦政府资金将在9月30日午夜耗尽，若两党届时不能就相关拨款法案协商一致，部分政府机构将面临"停摆"。 白宫管理和预算办公室已指示联邦机构准备裁员计划，以便在可能的政府停摆期间进行大规模解雇，而非临时停薪休假。 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the increasing risk of a partial US government shutdown due to a deepening political impasse between congressional Democrats and Republicans [1] - The potential shutdown is expected to cast a long and anxious shadow over the nation's financial markets, indicating a heightened level of uncertainty for investors [1]

Group 1 - The risk of a partial government shutdown in the U.S. is increasing as Democrats and Republicans are at an impasse over funding proposals, which could impact financial regulatory operations and delay key economic data releases [1] - Historically, markets have been indifferent to government shutdowns, but this time may be different due to potential delays in critical economic data like monthly employment and inflation reports, leading to "blind decision-making" by the Federal Reserve [2] - A prolonged shutdown could solidify market expectations for interest rate cuts, resulting in a steeper U.S. Treasury yield curve as investors struggle to assess the extent of economic slowdown [2] Group 2 - Financial regulatory agencies like the SEC may significantly reduce staff and operations during a shutdown, retaining only core teams, which would impair their ability to conduct essential functions such as corporate filing reviews and market oversight [3][4] - The CFTC plans to place most of its employees on unpaid leave during a shutdown, halting most market regulatory activities, while banking and consumer protection agencies will continue to operate normally as their funding is not dependent on Congress [4][5] - The IPO process will be adversely affected, as companies will be unable to proceed with listings without SEC approval, potentially stalling the momentum in the equity capital markets [6]

Report Investment Rating - Gold investment rating: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] - Silver investment rating: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoint - The medium - term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations have intensified, so it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [1] Other Key Points - Powell pointed out in a speech this week that the policy interest rate is still slightly restrictive and emphasized flexible adjustment based on data and economic prospects. Fed officials have a cautious attitude and are divided on subsequent interest rate cuts [1] - Attention should be paid to the US weekly initial jobless claims tonight, the PCE inflation data on Friday, and the progress of resolving the US government shutdown [1] - US Treasury Secretary Yellen believes that the Fed's interest rate has been too high for too long and that the US will enter an easing cycle. Powell should have signaled a 100 - 150 basis - point interest rate cut. FOMC voter Goolsbee warns against a series of interest rate cuts, while San Francisco Fed President Daly believes that further rate cuts may be needed [2] - As of September 19, global gold ETF holdings increased at the fastest pace in three years, with a total gold - holding volume of 3779.4 tons, reaching the highest level since August 2022. The net inflows in Q1 and Q2 this year were 226.6 tons and 170.5 tons respectively, far exceeding the same period last year [2] - As of September 19, the US's SPDR Gold Shares had the largest annual inflow of gold among global gold ETFs, with an annual increase in gold demand of 122.1 tons and a cumulative holding of about 994.4 tons. China's Huaan Yifu Gold ETF also had a significant inflow, with an annual increase in demand of 28.2 tons and a cumulative holding of about 74.7 tons [2]

Core Point - The risk of a partial U.S. government shutdown is increasing due to a stalemate between congressional Democrats and Republicans regarding federal government funding [1] Group 1 - Congressional Democrats and Republicans are currently at an impasse over funding strategies [1] - The potential shutdown is expected to begin next week if no agreement is reached [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold investment rating: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor market operability [1] - Silver investment rating: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor market operability [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overnight, precious metals continued to strengthen. Powell pointed out that the policy rate is still slightly restrictive and emphasized flexible policy adjustment based on data and economic outlook. Geopolitical tensions are hard to resolve, and Trump said the US is ready to impose tariffs if Russia refuses to reach an agreement. The upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged, but short - term volatility may intensify [1] Group 3: Summary of Related Information Fed Officials' Statements - Powell: Policy rate is slightly restrictive, allowing better response to potential economic progress; tariff impact is a one - time transmission; decisions are "never based on political factors". His remarks may open the door for further rate cuts [2] - Goolsbee: Currently not considering a 50 - basis - point rate cut; the Fed's interest rate may eventually stabilize around 3% [2] - Bowman: Predicts three rate cuts in 2025 [2] - Bostic: Considers the current real neutral rate to be 1.25%; may support setting the inflation target range at 1.75% - 2.25% in the future [2] Trump's Statements - If Russia refuses to reach an agreement, the US is ready to impose tariffs; Ukraine can retake all lost territory with EU support; NATO countries should shoot down Russian planes entering NATO airspace; his relationship with Putin "unfortunately means nothing" [2] - Trump cancelled a meeting with two top - level Democrats in Congress on Tuesday to resolve issues hindering a funding agreement to avoid a federal government shutdown [2] OECD Forecast - Predicts global economic growth of 3.2% in 2025 (previously 2.9%) and 2.9% in 2026 (unchanged from previous forecast) [2]

Macro News - The Shanghai gold futures price is reported at 860.00 CNY per gram, with an increase of 1.03%, opening at 861.34 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 862.10 CNY and a low of 853.74 CNY [1] - The preliminary value of the US September S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is 52, matching expectations but down from the August final value of 53. The Services PMI preliminary value is 53.9, and the Composite PMI preliminary value is 53.6, both below expectations and marking a three-month low [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that many indicators, such as stock prices, are currently overvalued, but he stated that it is not a time of high financial stability risk. He did not provide any hints regarding potential interest rate cuts in the upcoming October meeting, disappointing the market [1] Institutional Views - There is some internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts for the remainder of the year, but the newly appointed member supports continued rate cuts. The next Federal Reserve Chair is expected to lean towards the accommodative stance of the Trump administration, leading to market optimism about two rate cuts this year [2] - The risk of a government shutdown in the US has increased due to the rejection of funding proposals. Global political risks remain, particularly with several countries supporting Palestinian statehood, which may suppress risk appetite [2] - Short-term volatility risks in stock markets, including China, are rising, potentially leading to changes in investment direction. The favorable performance of precious metals may attract more investment [2]

Core Viewpoint - The simultaneous rise of U.S. stocks and gold highlights contrasting market sentiments, driven by optimism around AI growth and skepticism regarding the dollar's credibility [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - Recent catalysts for renewed expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts include a speech by Chairman Powell, calls for significant rate cuts from new board member Milan, and the upcoming release of PCE inflation data [3][5] - Powell's previous decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was perceived as hawkish due to his comments on the need for cautious rate adjustments [5] - Milan's call for substantial rate cuts is interpreted as a signal of the U.S. government's intent to push for more aggressive monetary easing [6] Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold is sensitive to interest rate changes, typically benefiting from lower rates as the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets decreases [9][10] - Historical data shows that gold prices do not always rise during rate-cutting cycles, influenced by broader economic conditions [11][13] - The relationship between gold prices and economic cycles indicates that gold may rise during economic downturns but could decline during recoveries [13] Group 3: Political and Economic Context - The current rate-cutting environment is complicated by political factors, including potential government shutdowns and the need for the Fed to maintain policy credibility amid various pressures [14][16] - Historical trends suggest that during government shutdowns, the dollar tends to weaken while gold and U.S. stocks often perform better [14] - The long-term outlook for gold remains tied to the U.S. economy's ability to improve productivity and fiscal efficiency, which is crucial for maintaining the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [16]