Core Viewpoint - UBS Global Wealth Management's Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi anticipates continued market volatility due to ongoing news related to trade and fiscal policies [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The company expects U.S. stocks to rise over the next 12 months, although the near-term gains for this year may be limited [1]

跟踪全球贸易动向 +订阅 金十数据5月30日讯，白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗表示，如果特朗普政府最终在围绕其贸易政策的法庭斗争中 败诉，政府将寻求通过其他方式征收关税。纳瓦罗在白宫对记者说，在法院发出暂停令后，美国的关税 将暂时保持不变，美国政府仍在与其他国家进行对话，继续进行贸易谈判。 纳瓦罗：即使在法庭上败诉，白宫也会找到征收关税的方法 ...

周三，美国一家贸易法院裁定特朗普的大部分关税将不会生效，这一全面裁决表明总统越权了。经济学 家表示，这一裁决虽然带来了一定的缓解，但又给经济状况增添了另一层不确定性。 此前美国银行研究所报告显示，2月至4月期间，领取失业救济的高收入家庭数量同比大幅增加，4月中 低收入家庭申领人数同比亦显著上升。经济学家预计，受季节性波动数据调整难度影响，6月初请人数 可能突破今年20.5万至24.3万的区间，但这一趋势与近年相似，未必反映劳动力市场状况的实质性转 变。 美联储今晨的会议纪要显示，尽管决策者认为劳动力市场总体平衡，但"评估认为未来几个月劳动力市 场存在走弱风险"，并指出就业前景"存在相当大的不确定性"，其结果"在很大程度上取决于贸易政策及 其他政府政策的演变"。 智通财经APP获悉，美国至5月24日当周初请失业金人数 24万人，预期23万人，前值由22.7万人修正为 22.6万人。美国至5月17日当周续请失业金人数 191.9万人，预期189.4万人，前值由190.3万人修正为 189.3万人。 续请失业金人数数据与非农就业报告调查周相关，且刚刚创下周期新高，这可能导致失业率上升。续请 失业金人数涵盖了政府为计 ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy experienced a contraction at the beginning of the year, with the first quarter GDP annualized rate revised to -0.2%, slightly better than the initial estimate of -0.3% [1] - Consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth, increased by only 1.2%, down from the initial estimate of 1.8%, marking the lowest growth rate in nearly two years [1][2] - Net exports negatively impacted GDP by nearly 5 percentage points, slightly worse than initial predictions [1] Consumer Spending and Business Investment - The downward revision in consumer spending was primarily due to weakened demand for automobiles and reduced spending on services, including healthcare and insurance [4] - Business investment showed stronger performance, increasing by 10.3%, up from a prior estimate of 9.8% [2] Trade and Tariff Impact - A surge in imports, driven by businesses trying to stock up before tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, contributed to the economic slowdown [2] - The White House has since rescinded or delayed some punitive tariffs, which has alleviated some economic concerns, although tariff rates remain higher than pre-Trump levels [2] Future Economic Outlook - Economists expect a rebound in GDP for the second quarter due to reduced tariffs and the accumulation of imported goods into larger inventories, which may stimulate economic growth [3] - The overall demand in the economy was weaker than initially anticipated, with final sales to domestic private buyers growing by only 2.5%, the lowest level in nearly two years [3]

Group 1 - European stock indices opened higher, with Germany's DAX index rising by 0.9% [1] - France's CAC40 index increased by 1% [1] - The UK's FTSE 100 index saw a rise of 0.4% [1] - The Euro Stoxx 50 index gained 0.97% [1] Group 2 - The increase in European stock indices follows a U.S. court's halt on Trump's "Liberation Day" trade policy [1]

日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正：国家安全与贸易政策是不同的事项，不能作为一个整体进行谈判。 ...

Group 1 - The current trade policies are significant drivers of market performance, with the S&P 500 index experiencing a 2% increase on May 27, marking its largest single-day gain since May 12, reflecting easing tensions between the US and EU [1] - Following a threat from Trump to impose a 50% tariff on the EU, the market reacted negatively, but a subsequent phone call with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen led to a postponement of tariffs until July 9, resulting in a strong market rebound [1] - On May 27, the Dow Jones rose over 700 points, the S&P 500 increased by over 2%, and the Nasdaq led with a 2.5% gain, while the 10-year US Treasury yield fell to 4.432% [1] Group 2 - Investors are optimistic that the tense trade situation has eased, with some believing that the most severe trade tensions have dissipated, suggesting that significant market declines are unlikely in the short term [2] - Economic data released on May 27, including a rebound in consumer confidence and lower-than-expected decline in durable goods demand, contributed to investor optimism [2] - Despite the market's mild recovery, concerns exist regarding overly optimistic sentiment, as tariffs have already negatively impacted the economy, with the adjusted GDP growth rate contracting by 0.3% in Q1 compared to a 2.4% increase in Q4 of the previous year [2] Group 3 - Citigroup's Chief Economist Nathan Sheets expressed concerns about Trump's aggressive tariff policies, predicting a global growth rate of 2.3% for the year, down from 2.8% last year, with developed markets particularly affected [3] - Sheets also indicated that the proposed tax legislation could keep the US deficit high, averaging around 6% of GDP over the next decade [3] - The Wall Street Journal noted that US stock valuations remain relatively high by historical standards, leading to a mismatch between market sentiment and uncertain economic outlook [3]

现货黄金失守3260美元/盎司，日内跌幅0.82%，纳指期货涨幅扩大至1.7%。美国联邦法院叫停特朗 普"解放日"贸易政策。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, prioritizing inflation control amid persistent inflation, slowing growth, and policy uncertainty [1][7]. Inflation - Despite a noticeable easing since 2022, as of March 2025, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index year-on-year increase is still at 2.6%, with overall inflation at 2.3%, slightly above the Fed's long-term target of 2% [2]. - Recent tariff increases have significantly impacted the prices of goods and services, with companies planning to pass on cost increases to consumers, further exacerbating inflationary pressures [2]. - The Fed staff analysis indicates that inflation may be more persistent than previously expected, with projections suggesting inflation rates will remain above target until 2027 [2]. Labor Market - The labor market remains robust, with an unemployment rate stable at 4.2% as of April, close to the average level for the second half of 2024 [3]. - However, increasing trade policy uncertainty has led some companies, particularly in manufacturing, agriculture, and retail, to limit or pause hiring plans [3]. - While the current labor market is strong, there are concerns about potential signs of weakness in the coming months due to slowing economic activity and declining export demand [3]. Economic Growth - The first quarter saw a slight decline in actual GDP, attributed to fluctuations in net exports, with a surge in imports ahead of anticipated tariff increases and weak export growth [4]. - The Fed staff predicts that newly announced trade policies will have a more severe impact on economic activity than previously anticipated, potentially dragging down the potential growth rate in the coming years [4]. Financial Markets - Recent financial market volatility has been notable, with long-term Treasury yields rising and the dollar depreciating against most major currencies, attributed to concerns over the adverse effects of trade policies on the U.S. economy [5]. - Although the overall functioning of financial markets remains orderly, liquidity indicators in the Treasury market have deteriorated, reflecting investor uncertainty regarding policy direction [5]. Monetary Policy Stance - The committee members agree that maintaining the current interest rate is appropriate given the robust economic activity and labor market, while emphasizing the need for flexibility in policy adjustments based on new economic information [6][7]. - The Fed is committed to gradually normalizing its balance sheet by reducing holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt, and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) [7]. Future Outlook - The FOMC signals a clear stance that, despite downward pressure on economic growth, the Fed will not easily shift to a loose monetary policy until inflation clearly returns to target levels [9]. - The Fed is closely monitoring global trade policy developments and their potential ripple effects on the U.S. economy, remaining vigilant and ready to respond flexibly to changes in economic data and risks [9].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that the impact of trade policies on economic activity is greater than previously expected [1] Economic Growth Projections - The staff's forecasts for real GDP growth in 2025 and 2026 have been revised downward compared to the predictions made in March [1] - The announced trade policies are expected to result in a more significant drag on actual economic activity than previously assumed [1] Productivity and Potential GDP - Trade policies are anticipated to lead to a slowdown in productivity growth, which will reduce potential GDP growth in the coming years [1] Output Gap and Labor Market - The output gap is expected to widen significantly during the forecast period due to earlier and larger-than-expected demand drag compared to supply responses [1] - The labor market is projected to weaken considerably, with the unemployment rate expected to exceed the staff's estimate of the natural rate by the end of this year and remain above it until 2027 [1]